<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-bars-on-a-work-desk.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-bars-on-a-work-desk.jpg"/></p>
<p>摩根士丹利指出，黃金作為投資組合避風港的傳統角色正受到更嚴格的審視，該行認為，黃金近期的價格走勢與投資者通常對經典避險資產的預期相比，更加複雜。</p>
<p>該行的觀點是在過去六週內，因伊朗衝突、利率預期變化和更廣泛的市場動盪而導致商品市場波動加劇後提出的。</p>
<p>儘管週三達成了停火協議，但這並未完全恢復市場對黃金防禦性表現的信心。</p>
<p>在 2026 年初創下歷史新高後，黃金近期大幅回落，因美元走強以及投資者對更不確定的利率前景進行調整，價格承壓。</p>
<p>對於摩根士丹利而言，這一逆轉很重要，因為它突顯了黃金並未始終如投資者所期待的那樣對地緣政治壓力作出反應。</p>
<p>黃金並未持續吸引避險資金流入，反而在某些時候因流動性壓力、市場定位和宏觀因素（特別是實際利率和美元）而走弱。</p>
<p>從這個意義上説，摩根士丹利的論點並不是黃金完全失去相關性，而是市場在定價和表達安全性方面發生了變化。</p>
<h2>為什麼黃金的角色受到質疑</h2>
<p>該行的核心觀點是，黃金的短期表現似乎越來越受到宏觀因素和大型機構資金流動的影響，而不僅僅是簡單的避險動態。</p>
<p>分析師表示，價格走勢受到中央銀行需求、交易所交易基金的定位以及貨幣和利率預期變化的影響，而不是廣泛的本能性湧入防禦性資產。</p>
<p>這種變化很重要，因為它可能使黃金的表現不再像簡單的對沖工具，而更像是對流動性條件和投資組合輪換敏感的資產。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利更為謹慎的立場反映了這一變化的動態：黃金可能仍然提供長期的多樣化收益，但其短期表現作為地緣政治對沖工具的可預測性正在降低。</p>
<p>在實際操作中，該行認為投資者應該更加挑剔。</p>
<p>黃金仍然可以作為長期的價值儲存，但近期的走勢表明，它不再是防禦性金屬交易中最清晰或最直接的表達。</p>
<h2>為什麼白銀看起來更具吸引力</h2>
<p>摩根士丹利對白銀持更為積極的看法，認為儘管近期波動，白銀仍有更強的基本面支撐。</p>
<p>白銀已從 2026 年初的高點回落，但該行和行業數據表明，基本的供需動態仍在持續支撐。</p>
<p>主要原因之一是多年來持續存在的供應短缺，這使得即使在價格波動時，實物市場也變得緊張。</p>
<p>與此同時，工業需求仍然是一個關鍵支柱，尤其來自太陽能和電子等行業，儘管效率提升和替代趨勢開始減緩使用增長。</p>
<p>這並不意味着白銀沒有投機性波動。</p>
<p>早期的上漲因投資者的定位而被放大，市場的波動性仍然是一個特徵。</p>
<p>儘管如此，白銀似乎仍然比黃金更具實質性的看漲理由，因為其前景不僅受到情緒的支持，還受到結構性需求和供應受限的支撐。</p>
<h2>為什麼鋁脱穎而出</h2>
<p>鋁是摩根士丹利看到更清晰看漲理由的另一種金屬。</p>
<p>該行的積極觀點主要基於供應方面的限制和生產的高能耗，這限制了產出對需求的快速響應。</p>
<p>倫敦金屬交易所的鋁價在最近幾個月保持支撐，分析師指出，即使在更廣泛的宏觀不確定性持續的情況下，供應條件仍然緊張。</p>
<p>中國的產能控制和高電力成本對冶煉廠的壓力是這一故事的核心。</p>
<p>某些地區的生產中斷以及重新啓動閒置產能的困難加劇了供應緊張。</p>
<p>由於鋁的生產與電力的可用性和定價密切相關，供應響應往往是漸進的而非即時的。</p>
<p>因此，即使更廣泛的經濟條件放緩，價格仍可能保持相對韌性。</p>
<h2>為什麼摩根士丹利對銅持更平衡的看法</h2>
<p>相比之下，摩根士丹利對銅持更為平衡的看法。</p>
<p>儘管該金屬在電氣化和能源轉型趨勢中仍保持強勁的長期支撐，但該行認為短期背景受到需求不確定性和市場動態變化的影響，表現更加複雜。</p>
<p>這使得銅與供應受限的鋁故事或結構性緊張的白銀市場有所不同。</p>
<p>銅仍然是一種具有長期吸引力的戰略金屬，但短期價格方向可能不那麼明確。</p>
<p>更廣泛的結論是，投資者不再能將金屬市場視為因相同原因而波動。</p>
<p>黃金的短期表現越來越受到宏觀因素驅動，白銀受到更緊張的基本面支撐，鋁受益於供應和電力限制，而銅則處於強勁的長期需求與更不確定的短期前景之間。</p>
<p>對於投資組合經理而言，這意味着金屬投資的下一個階段可能不再是擁有一個通用的對沖工具，而是識別真正的結構性壓力點所在。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利質疑黃金的避險角色，支持另一種金屬的文章首發於 Invezz。</p>

山東黃金

紐蒙特礦業

湖南白銀

<p>摩根士丹利對黃金作為避險資產的有效性表示擔憂，指出近期價格波動受到宏觀經濟因素和機構資金流動的影響，而非傳統的防禦性行為。該銀行建議，儘管黃金仍可能提供長期的多樣化，但其短期表現則不那麼可預測。相比之下，摩根士丹利對白銀持更樂觀態度，認為其受到供需動態和工業需求的支持，並對鋁的前景持看漲態度，原因在於供應限制。銅的前景則在需求不確定性中保持平衡</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-bars-on-a-work-desk.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-bars-on-a-work-desk.jpg"/></p>
<p>Gold’s traditional role as a portfolio shelter is coming under closer scrutiny, according to Morgan Stanley, which argues the metal’s recent price action has been more mixed than investors typically expect from a classic haven.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利指出，黃金作為投資組合避風港的傳統角色正受到更嚴格的審視，該行認為，黃金近期的價格走勢與投資者通常對經典避險資產的預期相比，更加複雜。</p>
</div><p>The bank’s view comes after a volatile stretch across commodities over the past six weeks, driven by anxiety over conflict involving Iran, shifts in interest rate expectations and broader market turbulence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該行的觀點是在過去六週內，因伊朗衝突、利率預期變化和更廣泛的市場動盪而導致商品市場波動加劇後提出的。</p>
</div><p>Although a ceasefire was agreed on Wednesday, that has not fully restored confidence in gold’s defensive behaviour.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管週三達成了停火協議，但這並未完全恢復市場對黃金防禦性表現的信心。</p>
</div><p>The metal has pulled back sharply in recent weeks after rallying to record highs earlier in 2026, with prices coming under pressure as the US dollar strengthened and investors adjusted to a more uncertain rate outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年初創下歷史新高後，黃金近期大幅回落，因美元走強以及投資者對更不確定的利率前景進行調整，價格承壓。</p>
</div><p>For Morgan Stanley, that reversal matters because it highlights how gold has not consistently responded to geopolitical stress in the way investors might typically expect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於摩根士丹利而言，這一逆轉很重要，因為它突顯了黃金並未始終如投資者所期待的那樣對地緣政治壓力作出反應。</p>
</div><p>Instead of attracting uninterrupted haven flows, gold has at times weakened as liquidity pressures, positioning and macro factors — particularly real rates and the dollar — have taken precedence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金並未持續吸引避險資金流入，反而在某些時候因流動性壓力、市場定位和宏觀因素（特別是實際利率和美元）而走弱。</p>
</div><p>In that sense, Morgan Stanley’s argument is less about gold losing relevance altogether and more about the market changing the way it prices and expresses safety.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從這個意義上説，摩根士丹利的論點並不是黃金完全失去相關性，而是市場在定價和表達安全性方面發生了變化。</p>
</div><h2>Why gold’s role is being questioned</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼黃金的角色受到質疑</h2>
</div><p>The bank’s core point is that gold’s near-term performance appears increasingly influenced by macro forces and large institutional flows rather than a simple flight-to-safety dynamic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該行的核心觀點是，黃金的短期表現似乎越來越受到宏觀因素和大型機構資金流動的影響，而不僅僅是簡單的避險動態。</p>
</div><p>Analysts say price action is being shaped by central bank demand, exchange-traded fund positioning and shifts in currency and rate expectations, rather than by a broad, instinctive rush into defensive assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師表示，價格走勢受到中央銀行需求、交易所交易基金的定位以及貨幣和利率預期變化的影響，而不是廣泛的本能性湧入防禦性資產。</p>
</div><p>That shift matters because it can make gold behave less like a straightforward hedge and more like an asset sensitive to liquidity conditions and portfolio rotation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種變化很重要，因為它可能使黃金的表現不再像簡單的對沖工具，而更像是對流動性條件和投資組合輪換敏感的資產。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley’s more cautious stance reflects this changing dynamic: gold may still offer long-term diversification benefits, but its short-term behaviour is proving less predictable as a geopolitical hedge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利更為謹慎的立場反映了這一變化的動態：黃金可能仍然提供長期的多樣化收益，但其短期表現作為地緣政治對沖工具的可預測性正在降低。</p>
</div><p>In practical terms, the bank is arguing that investors should be more selective.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在實際操作中，該行認為投資者應該更加挑剔。</p>
</div><p>Gold can still serve as a store of value over time, but recent moves suggest it is no longer the clearest or most immediate expression of a defensive metals trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金仍然可以作為長期的價值儲存，但近期的走勢表明，它不再是防禦性金屬交易中最清晰或最直接的表達。</p>
</div><h2>Why silver looks more compelling</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼白銀看起來更具吸引力</h2>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley is more constructive on silver, which it sees as having a stronger fundamental underpinning despite recent volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利對白銀持更為積極的看法，認為儘管近期波動，白銀仍有更強的基本面支撐。</p>
</div><p>Silver has retreated from its early-2026 highs, but the bank and industry data point to continued support from underlying supply-demand dynamics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白銀已從 2026 年初的高點回落，但該行和行業數據表明，基本的供需動態仍在持續支撐。</p>
</div><p>One of the main reasons is the persistence of supply deficits over several years, which has tightened the physical market even when prices have been volatile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要原因之一是多年來持續存在的供應短缺，這使得即使在價格波動時，實物市場也變得緊張。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, industrial demand remains a key pillar, particularly from sectors such as solar and electronics, even as efficiency gains and substitution trends begin to moderate usage growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，工業需求仍然是一個關鍵支柱，尤其來自太陽能和電子等行業，儘管效率提升和替代趨勢開始減緩使用增長。</p>
</div><p>That does not mean silver is free from speculative swings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不意味着白銀沒有投機性波動。</p>
</div><p>Earlier surges were amplified by investor positioning, and volatility remains a feature of the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>早期的上漲因投資者的定位而被放大，市場的波動性仍然是一個特徵。</p>
</div><p>Even so, silver still appears to have a more tangible bullish case than gold because its outlook is supported not only by sentiment, but also by structural demand and constrained supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，白銀似乎仍然比黃金更具實質性的看漲理由，因為其前景不僅受到情緒的支持，還受到結構性需求和供應受限的支撐。</p>
</div><h2>Why aluminium stands out</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼鋁脱穎而出</h2>
</div><p>Aluminium is another metal where Morgan Stanley sees a clearer bullish case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋁是摩根士丹利看到更清晰看漲理由的另一種金屬。</p>
</div><p>The bank’s constructive view rests largely on supply-side constraints and the high energy intensity of production, which limits how quickly output can respond to demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該行的積極觀點主要基於供應方面的限制和生產的高能耗，這限制了產出對需求的快速響應。</p>
</div><p>London Metal Exchange aluminium prices have remained supported in recent months, with analysts pointing to tight supply conditions even as broader macro uncertainty persists.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦金屬交易所的鋁價在最近幾個月保持支撐，分析師指出，即使在更廣泛的宏觀不確定性持續的情況下，供應條件仍然緊張。</p>
</div><p>China’s capacity controls and the pressure of elevated power costs on smelters are central to that story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國的產能控制和高電力成本對冶煉廠的壓力是這一故事的核心。</p>
</div><p>Production disruptions in some regions and the difficulty of restarting idled capacity have reinforced the supply tightness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>某些地區的生產中斷以及重新啓動閒置產能的困難加劇了供應緊張。</p>
</div><p>Because aluminium production is closely tied to electricity availability and pricing, supply responses tend to be gradual rather than immediate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於鋁的生產與電力的可用性和定價密切相關，供應響應往往是漸進的而非即時的。</p>
</div><p>As a result, prices may remain relatively resilient even if broader economic conditions soften.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，即使更廣泛的經濟條件放緩，價格仍可能保持相對韌性。</p>
</div><h2>Why Morgan Stanley is more balanced on copper</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼摩根士丹利對銅持更平衡的看法</h2>
</div><p>By contrast, Morgan Stanley takes a more balanced view on copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，摩根士丹利對銅持更為平衡的看法。</p>
</div><p>While the metal retains strong long-term support from electrification and energy transition trends, the bank sees a more mixed near-term backdrop shaped by demand uncertainty and evolving market dynamics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管該金屬在電氣化和能源轉型趨勢中仍保持強勁的長期支撐，但該行認為短期背景受到需求不確定性和市場動態變化的影響，表現更加複雜。</p>
</div><p>That makes copper different from the more clearly supply-constrained aluminium story or the structurally tight silver market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得銅與供應受限的鋁故事或結構性緊張的白銀市場有所不同。</p>
</div><p>It remains a strategic metal with long-term appeal, but near-term price direction may be less straightforward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銅仍然是一種具有長期吸引力的戰略金屬，但短期價格方向可能不那麼明確。</p>
</div><p>The broader takeaway is that investors can no longer treat the metals complex as moving for the same reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更廣泛的結論是，投資者不再能將金屬市場視為因相同原因而波動。</p>
</div><p>Gold’s short-term behaviour is becoming more macro-driven, silver is supported by tighter fundamentals, aluminium is benefiting from supply and power constraints, and copper sits between strong long-term demand and a more uncertain near-term outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金的短期表現越來越受到宏觀因素驅動，白銀受到更緊張的基本面支撐，鋁受益於供應和電力限制，而銅則處於強勁的長期需求與更不確定的短期前景之間。</p>
</div><p>For portfolio managers, that means the next phase of metals investing may be less about owning a generic hedge and more about identifying where the real structural pressure points lie.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於投資組合經理而言，這意味着金屬投資的下一個階段可能不再是擁有一個通用的對沖工具，而是識別真正的結構性壓力點所在。</p>
</div><p>The post Morgan Stanley questions gold’s safe-haven role, backs another metal appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利質疑黃金的避險角色，支持另一種金屬的文章首發於 Invezz。</p>
</div>

摩根士丹利質疑黃金的避險作用，轉而支持另一種金屬