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<p>在週一，美國美元上漲，此前華盛頓與德黑蘭之間的週末談判未能達成結束持續衝突的協議。</p>
<p>根據 CNBC 的報道，美元對歐元上漲了 0.3%，交易價格為 1.169 美元，對英鎊上漲了 0.25%，交易價格為 1.342 美元。</p>
<p>貨幣的上漲是在和平談判破裂後出現的，隨後唐納德·特朗普發表聲明，表示美國將對所有進出伊朗港口的海上交通實施封鎖。</p>
<p>這一公告增加了地緣政治的不確定性，並對美元提供了適度支持。</p>
<p>儘管局勢升級，自伊朗衝突開始以來，投資者對美元的需求仍然保持適度。</p>
<p>然而，該貨幣在三月份仍對一籃子主要貨幣上漲了約 2%。</p>
<h2>油價和金融狀況塑造市場動態</h2>
<p>全球市場的最新發展給其他貨幣帶來了壓力。</p>
<p>較高的油價、堅挺的美元和緊縮的美國金融條件共同對外匯市場施加了壓力。</p>
<p>在衝突期間，美元的相對強勢主要歸因於美國在能源生產上的自給自足。</p>
<p>相比之下，英國和歐元區等經濟體由於對進口的高度依賴，仍然更容易受到油氣價格上漲的影響。</p>
<p>這種差異加大了美元的吸引力，特別是在地緣政治風險加劇的時期。</p>
<h2>滙豐分析師對美元前景保持謹慎</h2>
<p>滙豐的分析師在週五發佈的一份報告中強調了當前環境的複雜性。</p>
<p>雖然承認調整預測以支持更強美元的誘惑，但他們表示猶豫。</p>
<p>根據 CNBC 的報道，他寫道：&#34;將更強的美元納入我們的預測是誘人的。&#34;</p>
<p>他還補充説，他們&#34;不願意&#34;做出這樣的轉變，而是預計美元會隨着時間的推移而走弱。</p>
<p>分析師指出了支撐他們前景的兩個主要原因。</p>
<p>首先，引用美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾最近的言論，他們表示：&#34;當缺乏可見性時，謹慎地放慢速度而不是完全改變方向是明智的。&#34;</p>
<p>&#34;其次，由於美聯儲並未處於加息週期，也沒有轉向明顯的鷹派立場，因此有一些潛在的制約因素在對美元產生廣泛影響，&#34;他們補充道。</p>
<h2>黃金在避險需求變化中承壓</h2>
<p>儘管美元有所上漲，但其他傳統避險資產的表現並不強勁。</p>
<p>自美國和以色列於 2 月 28 日開始對伊朗進行打擊以來，黃金價格已下跌約 10%。</p>
<p>滙豐分析師表示，貴金屬的上漲軌跡可能會恢復，但僅在特定條件下。</p>
<p>他們指出，黃金價格的持續回升可能需要敵對行動的停止、霍爾木茲海峽的全面重新開放，以及油價在更穩定的水平上穩定。</p>
<p>在此之前，市場參與者預計將繼續關注地緣政治的發展及其對貨幣和商品的廣泛影響。</p>
<p>該文章的標題為《為什麼滙豐預計美元會在上漲中走弱？》，首次發佈在 Invezz 上。</p>

滙豐

匯豐控股有限公司

GOLD

<p>滙豐分析師預計儘管近期有所上漲，美元仍將走弱，原因在於地緣政治不確定性和市場缺乏可見性。在美國與伊朗的和平談判失敗後，美元對歐元和英鎊上漲，但滙豐保持謹慎，指出美聯儲並未處於加息週期。他們強調，美元的強勢部分源於美國的能源自給自足，而英國和歐元區則在油價上漲中顯得脆弱。與此同時，黃金價格也因避險需求的變化而下跌</p>

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<p>The US dollar moved higher on Monday after weekend talks between Washington and Tehran failed to produce an agreement to end the ongoing conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在週一，美國美元上漲，此前華盛頓與德黑蘭之間的週末談判未能達成結束持續衝突的協議。</p>
</div><p>According to CNBC, the greenback gained 0.3% against the euro, trading at $1.169, and rose 0.25% against the British pound to $1.342.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 CNBC 的報道，美元對歐元上漲了 0.3%，交易價格為 1.169 美元，對英鎊上漲了 0.25%，交易價格為 1.342 美元。</p>
</div><p>The uptick in the currency came after peace negotiations broke down, followed by a statement from Donald Trump indicating that the US would initiate a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>貨幣的上漲是在和平談判破裂後出現的，隨後唐納德·特朗普發表聲明，表示美國將對所有進出伊朗港口的海上交通實施封鎖。</p>
</div><p>The announcement added to geopolitical uncertainty and provided modest support to the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一公告增加了地緣政治的不確定性，並對美元提供了適度支持。</p>
</div><p>Despite the escalation, investor demand for the dollar has remained measured since the beginning of the Iran conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管局勢升級，自伊朗衝突開始以來，投資者對美元的需求仍然保持適度。</p>
</div><p>However, the currency has still posted gains of around 2% against a basket of major peers in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，該貨幣在三月份仍對一籃子主要貨幣上漲了約 2%。</p>
</div><h2>Market dynamics shaped by oil and financial conditions</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>油價和金融狀況塑造市場動態</h2>
</div><p>Recent developments in global markets have created headwinds for other currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球市場的最新發展給其他貨幣帶來了壓力。</p>
</div><p>Higher oil prices, a firmer US dollar, and tighter US financial conditions have collectively pressured foreign exchange markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>較高的油價、堅挺的美元和緊縮的美國金融條件共同對外匯市場施加了壓力。</p>
</div><p>The US dollar’s relative strength during the conflict has been largely attributed to the country’s self-sufficiency in energy production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在衝突期間，美元的相對強勢主要歸因於美國在能源生產上的自給自足。</p>
</div><p>In contrast, economies such as the United Kingdom and the Eurozone remain more vulnerable to rising oil and gas prices due to their heavy reliance on imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，英國和歐元區等經濟體由於對進口的高度依賴，仍然更容易受到油氣價格上漲的影響。</p>
</div><p>This divergence has amplified the dollar’s appeal, particularly during periods of heightened geopolitical risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種差異加大了美元的吸引力，特別是在地緣政治風險加劇的時期。</p>
</div><h2>HSBC analysts remain cautious on the USD outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>滙豐分析師對美元前景保持謹慎</h2>
</div><p>Analysts at HSBC highlighted the complexity of the current environment in a note issued on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>滙豐的分析師在週五發佈的一份報告中強調了當前環境的複雜性。</p>
</div><p>While acknowledging the temptation to adjust forecasts in favour of a stronger dollar, they expressed hesitation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然承認調整預測以支持更強美元的誘惑，但他們表示猶豫。</p>
</div><p>According to CNBC, he wrote, &#34;Embracing a stronger USD into our forecasts is tempting.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 CNBC 的報道，他寫道：&#34;將更強的美元納入我們的預測是誘人的。&#34;</p>
</div><p>He also added that they were &#34;reluctant&#34; to make such a shift and instead expect the greenback to weaken over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他還補充説，他們&#34;不願意&#34;做出這樣的轉變，而是預計美元會隨着時間的推移而走弱。</p>
</div><p>The analysts pointed to two primary reasons underpinning their outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師指出了支撐他們前景的兩個主要原因。</p>
</div><p>First, referencing recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, they stated, &#34;When there is a lack of visibility, it is prudent to slow down rather than fully change direction.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，引用美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾最近的言論，他們表示：&#34;當缺乏可見性時，謹慎地放慢速度而不是完全改變方向是明智的。&#34;</p>
</div><p>&#34;Second, since the Fed is not in a hiking cycle nor has turned outright hawkish, there are underlying constraints working against the broad USD,&#34; they added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;其次，由於美聯儲並未處於加息週期，也沒有轉向明顯的鷹派立場，因此有一些潛在的制約因素在對美元產生廣泛影響，&#34;他們補充道。</p>
</div><h2>Gold under pressure amid shifting safe-haven demand</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黃金在避險需求變化中承壓</h2>
</div><p>While the dollar has seen modest gains, other traditional safe-haven assets have not performed as strongly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管美元有所上漲，但其他傳統避險資產的表現並不強勁。</p>
</div><p>Gold has declined by around 10% from its all-time high since the United States and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自美國和以色列於 2 月 28 日開始對伊朗進行打擊以來，黃金價格已下跌約 10%。</p>
</div><p>HSBC analysts suggested that the precious metal’s upward trajectory could resume, but only under specific conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>滙豐分析師表示，貴金屬的上漲軌跡可能會恢復，但僅在特定條件下。</p>
</div><p>They indicated that a sustained recovery in gold prices would likely require a cessation of hostilities, the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a stabilisation in oil prices at more consistent levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他們指出，黃金價格的持續回升可能需要敵對行動的停止、霍爾木茲海峽的全面重新開放，以及油價在更穩定的水平上穩定。</p>
</div><p>Until then, market participants are expected to remain focused on geopolitical developments and their broader impact on currencies and commodities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此之前，市場參與者預計將繼續關注地緣政治的發展及其對貨幣和商品的廣泛影響。</p>
</div><p>The post Why does HSBC expect the dollar to weaken despite gains? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該文章的標題為《為什麼滙豐預計美元會在上漲中走弱？》，首次發佈在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

Why does HSBC expect the dollar to weaken despite gains?

- 美元因伊朗與美國談判失敗上漲，兑歐元漲 0.3%。  
- 地緣政治不確定性推高美元，但投資者需求仍温和。  
- 滙豐分析師對美元前景持謹慎態度，預計未來可能走弱。

為什麼滙豐預計美元會走弱，儘管美元有所上漲？