<ul>
<li>投資者權衡伊朗停火談判前景及經濟展望，美元維持基本持平</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>能源價格持續上漲且增長風險猶存，歐央行與美聯儲對利率調整持謹慎態度</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>美國進口價格漲幅不及預期</li>
</ul><p>（更新至美國午後交易時段）</p><p>作者：查克·米科拉日扎克</p><p>紐約，4 月 15 日（路透社）- 週三，美元微跌，全天在基本持平水平附近窄幅波動，因投資者評估伊朗與美國即將恢復和平談判的可能性。美國總統唐納德·特朗普表示，與伊朗的戰爭已接近尾聲，作為調解方的巴基斯坦陸軍參謀長已抵達德黑蘭，試圖防止敵對行動再次爆發。</p><p>一名消息人士告訴路透社，以色列預計上週與伊朗達成的兩週停火協議將得到延長，當時美國和伊朗官員正在考慮重返巴基斯坦進行進一步會談。白宮新聞秘書卡羅琳·利維特對記者表示，有關白宮請求延長伊朗戰爭停火協議的報道是錯誤的。自 2 月 28 日美以襲擊伊朗以來，霍爾木茲海峽實際上已被封鎖，該海峽是全球五分之一石油和天然氣運輸以及其他關鍵產品（如化肥）的關鍵水道。這導致油價飆升，並引發人們對全球經濟和通脹受損的擔憂。</p><p>Monex USA 高級交易主管胡安·佩雷斯表示：“我們正試圖弄清楚談判是否會繼續、停火是否會持續，以及最終緊張局勢能否被鞏固或緩解，但沒人確切知道事態將如何發展。”</p><p>“我們不僅受制於關於衝突的頭版頭條，現在的焦點也將轉向經濟增長。”</p><p>美元指數持續走低 衡量美元對一籃子貨幣表現的美元指數當日下跌 0.01%，收於 98.06，此前最高觸及 98.286，日內最低點為 98.005。美國原油（CLc1）上漲 0.13%，至每桶 91.39 美元；布倫特原油（LCOc1）微漲 0.06%，至每桶 94.87 美元。四位消息人士告訴路透社，歐洲央行（ECB）決策者對在本月立即加息持謹慎態度，因為他們尚未看到由能源引發的通脹衝擊變得廣泛化或根深蒂固的確鑿證據。歐元（EUR=）最新上漲 0.03%，報 1.1799 美元。歐央行決策者約阿希姆·納格爾週三表示，圍繞霍爾木茲海峽的情況對於央行下一步政策決策至關重要，而同僚何塞·路易斯·埃斯科瓦薩則表示，其經濟基準情景（預計伊朗戰爭的影響是短暫的）正在能源市場顯現。美元指數週二曾跌至 97.968，為自 3 月 2 日以來的最低水平，那是美以開戰後的第一個交易日，但投資者表示，對美國資產的強勁需求以及美國降息前景的減弱應能支撐美元，避免更大幅度的下跌。此次下跌使美元指數連續第八個交易日收跌，創下自 12 月 3 日以來最長的連跌紀錄（當時投資者普遍預期美聯儲今年至少降息兩次）。</p><p>重點關注經濟數據 美國財政部長斯科特·貝森特告訴 CNBC，受伊朗戰爭影響，本季度經濟增速將放緩，但整體狀況良好並將實現反彈。他補充説，油價似乎並未推高通脹預期。美國勞工部數據顯示，上月進口價格上漲 0.8%，而經下修後 2 月份漲幅為 0.9%，低於路透社調查經濟學家預測的 2% 漲幅。截至 3 月的 12 個月中，進口價格飆升至 2.1%。</p><p>克利夫蘭聯儲主席貝絲·哈馬克表示，雖然她認為美國央行目前沒有緊迫需要改變利率目標設定，但未來仍可能出現降息甚至加息。兑日元（JPY=），美元走強 0.18%，至 159.05，接近 160 關口，該價位曾引發日本官員干預匯市。英鎊（GBP=）兑美元走強 0.06%，至 1.3572 美元。</p><p>進出口價格與美元走勢</p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/xmvjyerbxpr/impexp.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="649" height="400" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/xmvjyerbxpr/impexp.png"/></p><p>貨幣兑美元的走勢</p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOMATED-20260414/G20-CURRENCY-VS-USD-PCT-CHG-ARROW-SINCE-ELEX/egpbeqyxrvq/chart_eikon.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="940" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOMATED-20260414/G20-CURRENCY-VS-USD-PCT-CHG-ARROW-SINCE-ELEX/egpbeqyxrvq/chart_eikon.jpg"/></p>

談判桌外的較量升級！伊朗外長遞交停戰條件，宣布形成霍爾木茲海峽綜合管理方案。川普則果斷取消赴巴會談，維持封鎖態勢。這場「以強對強」的博弈，究竟會點燃戰火還是引出轉機？歡迎在話題下分享你的觀點。

<p>談判桌外的較量升級！伊朗外長遞交停戰條件，宣布形成霍爾木茲海峽綜合管理方案。川普則果斷取消赴巴會談，維持封鎖態勢。這場「以強對強」的博弈，究竟會點燃戰火還是引出轉機？歡迎在話題下分享你的觀點。</p>

美伊互不相讓：“二次談判”還有戲嗎？

德銀美元指數 做空 - PowerShares

彭博美元指數 做多 - WisdomTree

<ul>
<li>Dollar holds near unchanged mark as investors weigh prospects for Iran ceasefire talks, economic outlook</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>投資者權衡伊朗停火談判前景及經濟展望，美元維持基本持平</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>ECB, Fed cautious on rate moves as energy prices, growth risks persist</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>能源價格持續上漲且增長風險猶存，歐央行與美聯儲對利率調整持謹慎態度</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>US import prices below expectations</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美國進口價格漲幅不及預期</li>
</ul></div><p>(Updates to afternoon US trading)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（更新至美國午後交易時段）</p></div><p>By Chuck Mikolajczak</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：查克·米科拉日扎克</p></div><p>NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar edged lower on Wednesday and wasfluctuating narrowly on either side of unchanged throughout the day as investors assessed the likelihood that peace talks between Iran and the United States would resume shortly. U.S. President Donald Trump said the war with Iran was close to over, as the army chief of mediator Pakistan arrived in Tehran to try to prevent a renewed outbreak of hostilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>紐約，4 月 15 日（路透社）- 週三，美元微跌，全天在基本持平水平附近窄幅波動，因投資者評估伊朗與美國即將恢復和平談判的可能性。美國總統唐納德·特朗普表示，與伊朗的戰爭已接近尾聲，作為調解方的巴基斯坦陸軍參謀長已抵達德黑蘭，試圖防止敵對行動再次爆發。</p></div><p>A source told Reuters that Israel expects a two-week ceasefire, agreed to last week with the Iranians, to be extended as U.S. and Iranian officials weighed a return to Pakistan for further talks. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that reports the White House had requested an extensionof the ceasefire in the Iran war were wrong. The war has effectively throttled the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments as well as other key products such as fertilizer, since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran began on February 28. That has sent oil prices surging and ignited concerns about the hit to global growth and inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一名消息人士告訴路透社，以色列預計上週與伊朗達成的兩週停火協議將得到延長，當時美國和伊朗官員正在考慮重返巴基斯坦進行進一步會談。白宮新聞秘書卡羅琳·利維特對記者表示，有關白宮請求延長伊朗戰爭停火協議的報道是錯誤的。自 2 月 28 日美以襲擊伊朗以來，霍爾木茲海峽實際上已被封鎖，該海峽是全球五分之一石油和天然氣運輸以及其他關鍵產品（如化肥）的關鍵水道。這導致油價飆升，並引發人們對全球經濟和通脹受損的擔憂。</p></div><p>“We’re trying to figure out if negotiations are going to continue, if the ceasefire will continue, and if ultimately tensions can be established as solidified or eased, but no one knows exactly where things are going,” said Juan Perez, senior director of trading at Monex USA.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Monex USA 高級交易主管胡安·佩雷斯表示：“我們正試圖弄清楚談判是否會繼續、停火是否會持續，以及最終緊張局勢能否被鞏固或緩解，但沒人確切知道事態將如何發展。”</p></div><p>“Not only are we at the mercy of the headlines over the conflict, but now the focus is going to be on economic growth.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們不僅受制於關於衝突的頭版頭條，現在的焦點也將轉向經濟增長。”</p></div><p>DOLLAR INDEX CONTINUES TO FADE The dollar index (=USD) , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, shed 0.01% on the day to 98.06 after climbing as high as 98.286. The session low was 98.005. U.S. crude (CLc1) rose 0.13% to $91.39 a barrel and Brent (LCOc1) ticked up to $94.87 per barrel, a gain of 0.06% on the day. Four sources told Reuters the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are wary about raising interest rates as soon as this month, as they have yet to see firm evidence that an energy-induced inflation shock is becoming broad-based or entrenched. The euro (EUR=) was last up 0.03% at $1.1799. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said on Wednesday the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz will be crucial in informing the central bank’s next policy decision, while fellow policymaker José Luis Escrivá saidits baseline scenario for the economy, which envisages a short-lived impact from the Iran war, is materializing on the energy market. The dollar index had dropped as low as 97.968 on Tuesday, its weakest level since March 2, the first trading day after the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began, but investors said robust demand for U.S. assets and waning prospects for U.S. interest rate cuts should buttress it against sharper declines. The decline puts the dollar index on track for an eighth straight daily loss, its longest since a nine-session skid that ended on December 3, when investors were largely expecting at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指數持續走低 衡量美元對一籃子貨幣表現的美元指數當日下跌 0.01%，收於 98.06，此前最高觸及 98.286，日內最低點為 98.005。美國原油（CLc1）上漲 0.13%，至每桶 91.39 美元；布倫特原油（LCOc1）微漲 0.06%，至每桶 94.87 美元。四位消息人士告訴路透社，歐洲央行（ECB）決策者對在本月立即加息持謹慎態度，因為他們尚未看到由能源引發的通脹衝擊變得廣泛化或根深蒂固的確鑿證據。歐元（EUR=）最新上漲 0.03%，報 1.1799 美元。歐央行決策者約阿希姆·納格爾週三表示，圍繞霍爾木茲海峽的情況對於央行下一步政策決策至關重要，而同僚何塞·路易斯·埃斯科瓦薩則表示，其經濟基準情景（預計伊朗戰爭的影響是短暫的）正在能源市場顯現。美元指數週二曾跌至 97.968，為自 3 月 2 日以來的最低水平，那是美以開戰後的第一個交易日，但投資者表示，對美國資產的強勁需求以及美國降息前景的減弱應能支撐美元，避免更大幅度的下跌。此次下跌使美元指數連續第八個交易日收跌，創下自 12 月 3 日以來最長的連跌紀錄（當時投資者普遍預期美聯儲今年至少降息兩次）。</p></div><p>ECONOMIC DATA IN FOCUS U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC the economy will be slower this quarter with the Iran war, but that it is in good shape and will rebound. He added that oil prices do not appear to be raising inflation expectations. The U.S. Labor Department said import prices rose 0.8% last month after a downwardly revised 0.9% gain in February, short of the 2% rise forecast by economists polled by Reuters. In the 12 months through March, import prices shot up 2.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重點關注經濟數據 美國財政部長斯科特·貝森特告訴 CNBC，受伊朗戰爭影響，本季度經濟增速將放緩，但整體狀況良好並將實現反彈。他補充説，油價似乎並未推高通脹預期。美國勞工部數據顯示，上月進口價格上漲 0.8%，而經下修後 2 月份漲幅為 0.9%，低於路透社調查經濟學家預測的 2% 漲幅。截至 3 月的 12 個月中，進口價格飆升至 2.1%。</p></div><p>Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said that while she sees no imminent need for the U.S. central bank to change its interest rate target-setting, future cuts or even hikes were possible. Against the yen (JPY=) , the dollar strengthened 0.18% to 159.05, moving closer to the 160 level that has sparked past interventions in the currency market by Japanese officials. Sterling (GBP=) strengthened 0.06% against the greenback to $1.3572.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>克利夫蘭聯儲主席貝絲·哈馬克表示，雖然她認為美國央行目前沒有緊迫需要改變利率目標設定，但未來仍可能出現降息甚至加息。兑日元（JPY=），美元走強 0.18%，至 159.05，接近 160 關口，該價位曾引發日本官員干預匯市。英鎊（GBP=）兑美元走強 0.06%，至 1.3572 美元。</p></div><p>Import export prices and the dollar</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>進出口價格與美元走勢</p></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/xmvjyerbxpr/impexp.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/xmvjyerbxpr/impexp.png"/></p>
<p>Currency moves against the US dollar</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>貨幣兑美元的走勢</p></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOMATED-20260414/G20-CURRENCY-VS-USD-PCT-CHG-ARROW-SINCE-ELEX/egpbeqyxrvq/chart_eikon.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOMATED-20260414/G20-CURRENCY-VS-USD-PCT-CHG-ARROW-SINCE-ELEX/egpbeqyxrvq/chart_eikon.jpg"/></p>

外匯市場：美元隨投資者評估美伊和平談判重啓概率而波動