<p>（此處表達的觀點是作者作為路透社專欄作家的個人觀點）</p><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p><p>倫敦，4 月 16 日（路透社）——伊朗戰爭正在引發全球鋁市場前所未有的危機，其潛在的災難性連鎖反應將波及建築、包裝、運輸和綠色能源等各個行業。</p><p>即使戰爭明天結束，阿聯酋環球鋁業也可能需要長達一年時間才能從上月其 Al Taweelah 冶煉廠遭受導彈襲擊造成的損害中恢復過來。</p><p>巴林鋁業（ALBH.BH），中國以外最大的單點生產基地，也受到了衝擊，儘管目前尚不清楚受損程度。在襲擊發生前，由於電力短缺，Alba 已經減少了產量，卡塔爾鋁業也是如此。</p><p>隨着通過霍爾木茲海峽的航運受到嚴重限制，如果冶煉廠耗盡原材料庫存，生產損失可能會進一步擴大。</p><p>根據諮詢公司 Wood Mackenzie 的數據，全球市場今年可能面臨高達 400 萬公噸的供應赤字。</p><p>西方買家將承受此次巨大供應衝擊的主要後果，如果政策制定者希望在未來幾周內緩解影響，他們將面臨一些艱難的抉擇。</p><h3>薄弱的庫存覆蓋</h3><p>在過去，市場可以轉向倫敦金屬交易所（LME）獲取額外金屬。在上世紀十年初期，註冊庫存曾超過 500 萬噸。</p><p>此後，LME 庫存已縮減至 40 萬噸以下，另有 10 萬噸處於非倉單類別。</p><p>CME 倉庫的庫存也遭到侵蝕。自年初以來，可交割庫存暴跌 70%，目前總計僅為 1,864 噸。</p><p>即便這些數據也存在誇大成分。俄羅斯金屬在 3 月底佔 LME 註冊庫存的 27 萬噸，但由於烏克蘭入侵後實施的制裁，許多西方用户無法使用這些金屬。</p><p>交易商一直在爭奪非俄羅斯部分的份額。有人在 3 月第一週取消了 9.8 萬噸 LME 註冊的印度鋁，但上週又將其大部分重新轉為倉單，因為期限價差劇烈波動。</p><p>基準現金對三個月價差（CMAL0-3）擴大至每噸 95.50 美元的向後結構，這是該市場自 2007 年以來最緊的狀態。</p><h3>電力限制</h3><p>存在閒置的冶煉產能，特別是在美國和歐洲，理論上可以重新啓動以幫助緩解實物金屬供應的緊張局面。</p><p>然而，大多數此類產能是在之前的能源危機期間停運的。冶煉廠通過電解生產金屬，典型的冶煉廠耗電量堪比波士頓這樣大小的城市。</p><p>鑑於伊朗戰爭對能源價格的影響，那些被擱置的產能中，如果有能重啓的，也將微乎其微。</p><p>事實上，在波斯灣敵對行動開始之前，全球廉價電力的短缺就已經迫使更多工廠關閉。</p><p>位於莫桑比克的 Mozal 鋁冶煉廠由澳大利亞 South32 公司（S32.AX）控股並運營，該公司因未能獲得經濟可行的供電合同，於 3 月將其轉入維護狀態。</p><p>即使考慮到回收產量的增加以及製造業活動受能源打擊導致的疲軟需求，Wood Mackenzie 表示：“在未來 18 個月內，全球鋁市場無法避免巨大的供應赤字。”</p><h3>令人難以接受的抉擇</h3><p>這一赤字將在西方感受最為強烈，這將迫使政府做出一些令人難以接受的抉擇。</p><p>有兩個國家可以幫助緩解這一短缺。</p><p>第一個是中國，全球最大的鋁生產國。問題在於，中國傾向於將其大部分金屬加工成杆、板和線等半成品。</p><p>世界其他國家在過去十年裏建立了針對中國出口洪流的貿易壁壘，指責北京破壞競爭對手。</p><p>西方鋁用户需要的是原生金屬和合金，而不是更多的廉價中國產品出口。</p><p>這就剩下了俄羅斯，它既生產原生金屬，也生產海灣地區生產的各類增值合金。</p><p>日本製造商已經顯示出迴歸俄羅斯供應鏈的跡象，儘管他們在 2022 年（俄羅斯）入侵後進行了自我制裁。</p><p>美國及歐洲的買家若要效仿，則需要政府頒發制裁豁免許可。</p><p>美國總統唐納德·特朗普決定將進口鋁關税提高至 50%，這使美國的局勢更加複雜。</p><p>這使得進口錠的成本比 LME 價格（CMAL3）高出 2,500 美元/噸以上，而 LME 價格本身正處於四年高位，約為 3,580 美元/噸。</p><p>目前，這仍然是一個價格和成本的問題。海灣地區的擾亂持續時間越長，庫存消耗的速度就越快。</p><p>在某個階段，這可能不再僅僅是價格問題，而是能否擁有足夠金屬以滿足製造訂單的問題。</p><p>（此處表達的觀點是安迪·霍姆作為路透社專欄作家的個人觀點。喜歡本專欄嗎？請關注路透社 “開放利益”（ROI），這是您獲取全球金融評論的新重要來源。在 LinkedIn 和 X 上關注 ROI。並在 Apple、Spotify 或路透社應用程序上收聽每日播客《早間競價》。訂閲以讓路透社記者每週七天討論市場和金融領域的重大新聞。）</p><p>LME 鋁庫存低位且價差收窄</p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4cpxKAX?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2544" height="1158" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4cpxKAX"/></p><p>（撰稿：安迪·霍姆；編輯：瑪格麗塔·喬伊）</p><p>）</p>

華峯鋁業

中國鋁業

明泰鋁業

南山鋁業

凱撒鋁業

美國鋁業

雲鋁股份

世紀鋁業

<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（此處表達的觀點是作者作為路透社專欄作家的個人觀點）</p></div><p>By Andy Home</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p></div><p>LONDON, April 16 (Reuters) - The Iran war is triggering an unprecedented crisis in the global aluminium market with potentially devastating knock-on effects across sectors as diverse as construction, packaging, transport and green energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦，4 月 16 日（路透社）——伊朗戰爭正在引發全球鋁市場前所未有的危機，其潛在的災難性連鎖反應將波及建築、包裝、運輸和綠色能源等各個行業。</p></div><p>Even if the war were to end tomorrow, it could take up to a year for Emirates Global Aluminium to recover from the damage inflicted by a missile strike on its Al Taweelah smelter last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使戰爭明天結束，阿聯酋環球鋁業也可能需要長達一年時間才能從上月其 Al Taweelah 冶煉廠遭受導彈襲擊造成的損害中恢復過來。</p></div><p>Aluminium Bahrain (ALBH.BH) , the largest single-site production plant outside of China, has also been hit, although the extent of the damage is currently unknown. Alba had already reduced output prior to the attack, as had Qatar Aluminium, due to a shortage of power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴林鋁業（ALBH.BH），中國以外最大的單點生產基地，也受到了衝擊，儘管目前尚不清楚受損程度。在襲擊發生前，由於電力短缺，Alba 已經減少了產量，卡塔爾鋁業也是如此。</p></div><p>With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained, the loss of production could rise further as smelters run through their stocks of raw materials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着通過霍爾木茲海峽的航運受到嚴重限制，如果冶煉廠耗盡原材料庫存，生產損失可能會進一步擴大。</p></div><p>The global market is looking at a supply deficit of up to 4 million metric tons this year, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據諮詢公司 Wood Mackenzie 的數據，全球市場今年可能面臨高達 400 萬公噸的供應赤字。</p></div><p>Western buyers will bear the brunt of that massive supply hit and policymakers will face some hard choices in the weeks ahead if they want to cushion the impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西方買家將承受此次巨大供應衝擊的主要後果，如果政策制定者希望在未來幾周內緩解影響，他們將面臨一些艱難的抉擇。</p></div><h3>THIN INVENTORY COVER</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>薄弱的庫存覆蓋</h3></div><p>In times gone by the market could have turned to the London Metal Exchange (LME) for extra metal. Registered inventory exceeded 5 million tons in the first part of the last decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去，市場可以轉向倫敦金屬交易所（LME）獲取額外金屬。在上世紀十年初期，註冊庫存曾超過 500 萬噸。</p></div><p>LME stocks have since shrunk to under 400,000 tons with another 100,000 tons sitting in the off-warrant category.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此後，LME 庫存已縮減至 40 萬噸以下，另有 10 萬噸處於非倉單類別。</p></div><p>CME warehouses have also been raided. Total deliverable stocks have slumped by 70% since the start of the year and now total just 1,864 tons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CME 倉庫的庫存也遭到侵蝕。自年初以來，可交割庫存暴跌 70%，目前總計僅為 1,864 噸。</p></div><p>Even those figures flatter to deceive. Russian metal, which many Western users can’t use due to sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine, accounted for 270,000 tons of registered LME inventory at the end of March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便這些數據也存在誇大成分。俄羅斯金屬在 3 月底佔 LME 註冊庫存的 27 萬噸，但由於烏克蘭入侵後實施的制裁，許多西方用户無法使用這些金屬。</p></div><p>Traders have been tussling over the non-Russian component. Someone cancelled 98,000 tons of LME-registered Indian aluminium in the first week of March, only to re-warrant most of it last week as time-spreads exploded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易商一直在爭奪非俄羅斯部分的份額。有人在 3 月第一週取消了 9.8 萬噸 LME 註冊的印度鋁，但上週又將其大部分重新轉為倉單，因為期限價差劇烈波動。</p></div><p>The benchmark cash-to-three-months spread (CMAL0-3) flexed out to a backwardation of $95.50 per ton, the tightest the market’s been since 2007.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基準現金對三個月價差（CMAL0-3）擴大至每噸 95.50 美元的向後結構，這是該市場自 2007 年以來最緊的狀態。</p></div><h3>POWER CONSTRAINTS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>電力限制</h3></div><p>There is idled smelter capacity, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, that could in theory be reactivated to help alleviate the squeeze on physical metal supplies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>存在閒置的冶煉產能，特別是在美國和歐洲，理論上可以重新啓動以幫助緩解實物金屬供應的緊張局面。</p></div><p>However, most of this capacity was taken offline during previous energy crises. Smelters produce metal by electrolysis, and a typical one can use as much power as a city the size of Boston.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，大多數此類產能是在之前的能源危機期間停運的。冶煉廠通過電解生產金屬，典型的冶煉廠耗電量堪比波士頓這樣大小的城市。</p></div><p>Given the impact of the Iran war on energy prices, it seems highly unlikely much, if any, of the mothballed capacity will return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鑑於伊朗戰爭對能源價格的影響，那些被擱置的產能中，如果有能重啓的，也將微乎其微。</p></div><p>Indeed, the global shortage of affordable power was already forcing more closures even before the start of hostilities in the Gulf.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，在波斯灣敵對行動開始之前，全球廉價電力的短缺就已經迫使更多工廠關閉。</p></div><p>The Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique, majority owned and operated by Australia’s South32 (S32.AX) , was placed on care and maintenance in March after the company failed to get an economically viable power supply contract.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>位於莫桑比克的 Mozal 鋁冶煉廠由澳大利亞 South32 公司（S32.AX）控股並運營，該公司因未能獲得經濟可行的供電合同，於 3 月將其轉入維護狀態。</p></div><p>Even allowing for greater recycled production and softer demand due to the energy hit on manufacturing activity, “there is no escaping a large deficit in the global aluminium market over the next 18 months,” according to Wood Mackenzie.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使考慮到回收產量的增加以及製造業活動受能源打擊導致的疲軟需求，Wood Mackenzie 表示：“在未來 18 個月內，全球鋁市場無法避免巨大的供應赤字。”</p></div><h3>UNPALATABLE CHOICES</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>令人難以接受的抉擇</h3></div><p>That deficit is going to be felt most acutely in the West, which is going to force governments to make some unpalatable choices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一赤字將在西方感受最為強烈，這將迫使政府做出一些令人難以接受的抉擇。</p></div><p>Two countries could help alleviate the shortfall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有兩個國家可以幫助緩解這一短缺。</p></div><p>The first is China, the world’s largest aluminium producer. The problem is that China tends to process most of its metal into semi-manufactured products such as rod, plate and wire.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一個是中國，全球最大的鋁生產國。問題在於，中國傾向於將其大部分金屬加工成杆、板和線等半成品。</p></div><p>The rest of the world has spent the last decade erecting trade barriers against the Chinese export flood, accusing Beijing of undermining competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>世界其他國家在過去十年裏建立了針對中國出口洪流的貿易壁壘，指責北京破壞競爭對手。</p></div><p>Western aluminium users need primary metal and alloy, not more cheap Chinese product exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西方鋁用户需要的是原生金屬和合金，而不是更多的廉價中國產品出口。</p></div><p>That leaves Russia, which produces both primary metal and the array of value-added alloys produced in the Gulf.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就剩下了俄羅斯，它既生產原生金屬，也生產海灣地區生產的各類增值合金。</p></div><p>Japanese manufacturers are already showing signsof returning to Russian supply, having self-sanctioned after the 2022 invasion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本製造商已經顯示出迴歸俄羅斯供應鏈的跡象，儘管他們在 2022 年（俄羅斯）入侵後進行了自我制裁。</p></div><p>U.S. and European buyers would need government sanction waivers to follow suit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國及歐洲的買家若要效仿，則需要政府頒發制裁豁免許可。</p></div><p>The situation in the United States is compounded by President Donald Trump’s decision to hike import aluminium tariffs to 50%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國總統唐納德·特朗普決定將進口鋁關税提高至 50%，這使美國的局勢更加複雜。</p></div><p>That has sent the cost of imported ingot to over $2,500 per ton above the LME price (CMAL3) , which is itself hovering at four-year highs of $3,580 per ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得進口錠的成本比 LME 價格（CMAL3）高出 2,500 美元/噸以上，而 LME 價格本身正處於四年高位，約為 3,580 美元/噸。</p></div><p>For now, this remains a price and cost equation. The longer the Gulf disruption runs, the faster stocks deplete.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，這仍然是一個價格和成本的問題。海灣地區的擾亂持續時間越長，庫存消耗的速度就越快。</p></div><p>At some stage it may stop being a question of price altogetherand become a question of simply having enough metal to meet manufacturing orders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在某個階段，這可能不再僅僅是價格問題，而是能否擁有足夠金屬以滿足製造訂單的問題。</p></div><p>(The opinions expressed here are those of Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.) Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, and X. And listen to the Morning Bid daily podcast on Apple, Spotify, or the Reuters app. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（此處表達的觀點是安迪·霍姆作為路透社專欄作家的個人觀點。喜歡本專欄嗎？請關注路透社 “開放利益”（ROI），這是您獲取全球金融評論的新重要來源。在 LinkedIn 和 X 上關注 ROI。並在 Apple、Spotify 或路透社應用程序上收聽每日播客《早間競價》。訂閲以讓路透社記者每週七天討論市場和金融領域的重大新聞。）</p></div><p>LME aluminium stocks are low and spreads tight</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LME 鋁庫存低位且價差收窄</p></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4cpxKAX" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4cpxKAX"/></p>
<p>(Writing by Andy Home; Editing by Marguerita Choy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（撰稿：安迪·霍姆；編輯：瑪格麗塔·喬伊）</p></div><p>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>）</p></div>

ROI-Aluminium in crisis: war, tariffs and a market running on empty: Andy Home

Reuters

ROI-鋁業危機：戰爭、關税與枯竭的市場：安迪·霍姆