<p>[華盛頓/伊斯蘭堡] 美國總統唐納德·特朗普表示有信心很快能達成協議結束伊朗戰爭，並呼籲與德黑蘭結盟的真主黨停止攻擊，因為黎巴嫩與以色列之間的為期 10 天的停火協議已生效。特朗普表示，美國與伊朗的下一次會議可能在週末舉行，延長為期兩週的停火是可能的，但可能不需要，因為德黑蘭希望達成協議。他在白宮外對記者説：“我們將看看會發生什麼。但我認為我們非常接近與伊朗達成協議。” 他補充説，如果達成協議並在巴基斯坦首都伊斯蘭堡簽署，他可能會前往參加。幾個小時後，特朗普在拉斯維加斯進一步表示，這場戰爭 “應該很快結束”。與伊朗的戰爭在美國並不受歡迎，並給特朗普帶來了政治上的麻煩，距離國內關鍵的中期選舉只有幾個月時間。自 2 月 28 日開始的美以對伊朗的攻擊引發了歷史上最嚴重的油價衝擊，並導致國際貨幣基金組織下調了全球經濟前景，並警告稱，長期衝突可能將世界推向衰退的邊緣。一位參與美伊調解的巴基斯坦消息人士在 4 月 17 日（星期五）表示，背後外交方面取得了進展，雙方即將舉行的會議可能會導致協議的簽署。消息人士表示，雙方將首先簽署一份諒解備忘錄，隨後在 60 天內簽署一項全面協議。“詳細協議稍後再來。雙方原則上達成一致。技術細節稍後再處理，” 該消息人士在匿名的情況下表示。一位外交消息人士表示，關鍵的巴基斯坦調解人、陸軍參謀長阿西姆·穆尼爾元帥自週三以來一直在德黑蘭進行會談，並在 “棘手問題” 上取得了突破。</p>
<h2>油價因達成協議的希望而下跌</h2>
<p>週五早盤，油價下跌，亞洲股市在中東衝突可能接近尾聲的樂觀情緒中，連續第二週強勁上漲，儘管霍爾木茲海峽這一全球五分之一石油和天然氣供應的動脈仍然有效關閉。MSCI 亞太地區（不包括日本）股票指數下跌 0.8%，因投資者在 4 月的強勁反彈後鎖定利潤，該指數接近自伊朗戰爭爆發以來的最高點。日本日經指數在週四創下歷史新高後下跌 1%，幾乎所有股市都回到了戰爭前的水平。布倫特原油期貨在格林威治標準時間 0434（新加坡時間週五 12:34）下跌至每桶 98.17 美元，而美國西德克薩斯中質原油期貨下跌至每桶 93.47 美元，削減了前一交易日的漲幅。法國和英國將於週五主持約 40 個國家的會議，旨在向美國發出信號，表明一些特朗普曾批評未採取行動的親密盟友，準備在條件允許時幫助恢復霍爾木茲海峽的航行自由。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/c272fedb57aaaf0c7ccb3cb293fdd6b14d2ea1ee960d7e5382463a375abd6d13?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/c272fedb57aaaf0c7ccb3cb293fdd6b14d2ea1ee960d7e5382463a375abd6d13"/></p>
<p>伊朗試圖通過對船隻收取通行費來加強對霍爾木茲海峽的控制，以確保安全通行。照片：路透社</p>
<p>伊朗基本上已關閉該海峽，除了自己的船隻外，華盛頓本週對進入或離開伊朗港口的船隻實施了封鎖。分析人士表示，這一封鎖可能會阻止大約 200 萬桶每天的伊朗原油到達其主要買家中國。自戰爭開始以來，經過該海峽的船隻數量僅為每天 130 多艘的平均水平。</p>
<h2>對 “有意義的談判” 的希望</h2>
<p>黎巴嫩的停火於週四生效，特朗普表示他已與以色列總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡和黎巴嫩總統約瑟夫·阿翁進行了交談，並計劃邀請他們在接下來的一兩週內到白宮進行 “有意義的談判”。伊朗堅持認為，任何和平協議也應涵蓋黎巴嫩的衝突。伊朗媒體援引外交部發言人的話報道，停火是與美國達成的理解的一部分，並由巴基斯坦調解。“這可能是黎巴嫩的歷史性一天。好事正在發生！！！” 特朗普在週四晚些時候的社交媒體上説。在早些時候的帖子中，他呼籲真主黨尊重停火。“我希望真主黨在這個重要時期表現得體。如果他們這樣做，將是他們的一個偉大時刻。不能再殺戮。必須最終實現和平！” 他説。以色列與伊朗支持的真主黨之間的衝突因美以與伊朗的戰爭而重新點燃。真主黨在 3 月 2 日開火支持德黑蘭，導致以色列在黎巴嫩的攻勢，官方稱已造成 2000 人死亡，距他們上一次重大沖突已過去 15 個月。週四午夜，貝魯特部分地區響起慶祝性槍聲，以慶祝停火的開始，目擊者聽到火箭發射的爆炸聲，促使黎巴嫩軍隊發出安全警告並威脅逮捕。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/5d060d5b31df0a4e31b64fcf22f0bb6148dfff3e5846e65af1f559315d5041d4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/5d060d5b31df0a4e31b64fcf22f0bb6148dfff3e5846e65af1f559315d5041d4"/></p>
<p>黎巴嫩西頓的羣眾在 4 月 17 日慶祝，因黎巴嫩與以色列之間的停火協議生效，流離失所的人們返回家園。照片：路透社</p>
<p>但停火的局勢依然脆弱，軍方在週五早些時候報告稱，以色列已經通過對幾處南黎巴嫩村莊的間歇性炮擊違反了停火協議。以色列軍方沒有立即對此作出回應，早些時候曾表示其部隊仍在該地區部署，發言人稱這是對真主黨武裝活動持續的回應。真主黨在週四發佈了一份關於其對以色列軍事行動的長篇聲明，列出了其最後一次攻擊是在停火生效前 10 分鐘。真主黨高級官員比拉爾·拉基斯在停火開始前告訴 NBC 新聞，停火是 “必要的、迫切需要的，並且是所有人共同的要求”，但表示該組織不會遵從以色列要求其解除武裝的要求，“除非在與更廣泛的國家安全願景相關的框架內”。</p>
<h2>核野心成為談判障礙</h2>
<p>德黑蘭的核野心在上週末伊斯蘭堡的談判中成為了一個障礙，美國提議伊朗暫停所有核活動 20 年。德黑蘭則建議暫停三到五年，根據熟悉提案的人士的説法。特朗普在週四表示，伊朗已提出不擁有核武器超過 20 年的承諾。伊朗要求解除國際制裁，而華盛頓則要求將任何高度濃縮鈾從伊朗移除。兩名伊朗消息人士表示，關於高度濃縮鈾庫存的妥協跡象顯現，德黑蘭正在考慮將部分庫存運出國境。路透社</p>
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<p>美國總統唐納德·特朗普宣佈與伊朗的協議即將達成，並敦促真主黨保持停火，因為黎巴嫩和以色列之間的休戰開始。特朗普表示，可能在本週末與伊朗舉行會晤，並希望在 60 天內達成全面協議。與此同時，儘管霍爾木茲海峽的緊張局勢仍在持續，油價因對和平的樂觀情緒而下跌。特朗普還計劃邀請以色列和黎巴嫩領導人在白宮進行討論，強調需要達成一個更廣泛的和平協議，包括黎巴嫩</p>

<p>[WASHINGTON/ISLAMABAD] US President Donald Trump expressed confidence that an agreement could soon be reached to end the Iran war and urged the Teheran-aligned Hizbollah group to hold its fire as a 10-day truce went in to effect between Lebanon and Israel. Trump said the next meeting between the US and Iran could take place at the weekend and an extension of a two-week ceasefire was possible, but may not be needed as Teheran wanted a deal. “We’re going to see what happens. But I think we’re very close to making a deal with Iran,” he told reporters outside the White House, adding if an agreement was reached and signed in the Pakistani capital Islamabad, he may go there for the occasion. Hours later while in Las Vegas, Trump went further, saying the war “should be ending pretty soon”. The war with Iran has been unpopular in the US and has left Trump with a political headache just months before a crucial midterm election at home. The US-Israeli attack on Iran that started on Feb 28 has triggered the worst oil price shock in history and led to an International Monetary Fund downgrade of its outlook for the global economy and a warning that prolonged conflict could push the world to the brink of recession. A Pakistani source involved in mediating between the US and Iran said on Friday (Apr 17) there was progress in backdoor diplomacy and that an upcoming meeting between the two sides could result in the signing of an agreement. The two sides would first sign a memorandum of understanding followed by a comprehensive agreement within 60 days, the source said. “Detailed agreement comes later. Both sides are agreeing in principle. And technical bits come later,” the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity. A diplomatic source said the key Pakistani mediator, army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, had been holding talks in Teheran since Wednesday and had made a breakthrough on “sticky issues”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[華盛頓/伊斯蘭堡] 美國總統唐納德·特朗普表示有信心很快能達成協議結束伊朗戰爭，並呼籲與德黑蘭結盟的真主黨停止攻擊，因為黎巴嫩與以色列之間的為期 10 天的停火協議已生效。特朗普表示，美國與伊朗的下一次會議可能在週末舉行，延長為期兩週的停火是可能的，但可能不需要，因為德黑蘭希望達成協議。他在白宮外對記者説：“我們將看看會發生什麼。但我認為我們非常接近與伊朗達成協議。” 他補充説，如果達成協議並在巴基斯坦首都伊斯蘭堡簽署，他可能會前往參加。幾個小時後，特朗普在拉斯維加斯進一步表示，這場戰爭 “應該很快結束”。與伊朗的戰爭在美國並不受歡迎，並給特朗普帶來了政治上的麻煩，距離國內關鍵的中期選舉只有幾個月時間。自 2 月 28 日開始的美以對伊朗的攻擊引發了歷史上最嚴重的油價衝擊，並導致國際貨幣基金組織下調了全球經濟前景，並警告稱，長期衝突可能將世界推向衰退的邊緣。一位參與美伊調解的巴基斯坦消息人士在 4 月 17 日（星期五）表示，背後外交方面取得了進展，雙方即將舉行的會議可能會導致協議的簽署。消息人士表示，雙方將首先簽署一份諒解備忘錄，隨後在 60 天內簽署一項全面協議。“詳細協議稍後再來。雙方原則上達成一致。技術細節稍後再處理，” 該消息人士在匿名的情況下表示。一位外交消息人士表示，關鍵的巴基斯坦調解人、陸軍參謀長阿西姆·穆尼爾元帥自週三以來一直在德黑蘭進行會談，並在 “棘手問題” 上取得了突破。</p>
</div><h2>Oil price falls on deal hopes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>油價因達成協議的希望而下跌</h2>
</div><p>Oil prices fell in early trade on Friday and Asian stocks headed for a second week of strong gains on optimism the Middle East conflict could be nearing an end, even though the critical Strait of Hormuz, an artery for a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply, remains effectively closed. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.8 per cent as investors locked in profits after a blistering rally in April, with the index close to its highest since the Iran war broke out. Japan’s Nikkei slipped 1 per cent after hitting a record high on Thursday and almost all stock markets were back to pre-war levels. Brent crude futures declined to US$98.17 a barrel at 0434 GMT (12.34 pm on Friday in Singapore) while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell to US$93.47 a barrel, trimming gains from the previous session. France and Britain will chair a meeting on Friday of around 40 countries aimed at signalling to the US that some of its closest allies, many chided by Trump for failing to act, are ready to help restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz once conditions allow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五早盤，油價下跌，亞洲股市在中東衝突可能接近尾聲的樂觀情緒中，連續第二週強勁上漲，儘管霍爾木茲海峽這一全球五分之一石油和天然氣供應的動脈仍然有效關閉。MSCI 亞太地區（不包括日本）股票指數下跌 0.8%，因投資者在 4 月的強勁反彈後鎖定利潤，該指數接近自伊朗戰爭爆發以來的最高點。日本日經指數在週四創下歷史新高後下跌 1%，幾乎所有股市都回到了戰爭前的水平。布倫特原油期貨在格林威治標準時間 0434（新加坡時間週五 12:34）下跌至每桶 98.17 美元，而美國西德克薩斯中質原油期貨下跌至每桶 93.47 美元，削減了前一交易日的漲幅。法國和英國將於週五主持約 40 個國家的會議，旨在向美國發出信號，表明一些特朗普曾批評未採取行動的親密盟友，準備在條件允許時幫助恢復霍爾木茲海峽的航行自由。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/c272fedb57aaaf0c7ccb3cb293fdd6b14d2ea1ee960d7e5382463a375abd6d13" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/c272fedb57aaaf0c7ccb3cb293fdd6b14d2ea1ee960d7e5382463a375abd6d13"/></p>
<p>Iran has sought to tighten its grip over the Strait of Hormuz by charging tolls on vessels to ensure safe passage. PHOTO: REUTERS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗試圖通過對船隻收取通行費來加強對霍爾木茲海峽的控制，以確保安全通行。照片：路透社</p>
</div><p>Iran has largely closed the strait to ships other than its own, and Washington this week imposed a blockade on ships entering or leaving Iranian ports. Analysts said the blockade could prevent roughly 2 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from reaching its primary buyer China. Only a trickle of vessels have passed through the strait since the war started, compared to an average 130-plus each day before the conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗基本上已關閉該海峽，除了自己的船隻外，華盛頓本週對進入或離開伊朗港口的船隻實施了封鎖。分析人士表示，這一封鎖可能會阻止大約 200 萬桶每天的伊朗原油到達其主要買家中國。自戰爭開始以來，經過該海峽的船隻數量僅為每天 130 多艘的平均水平。</p>
</div><h2>Hopes for ‘meaningful talks’</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對 “有意義的談判” 的希望</h2>
</div><p>The ceasefire in Lebanon went into effect on Thursday and Trump said he had spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese counterpart Joseph Aoun and planned to invite them to the White House for “meaningful talks” that could happen over the next week or two. Iran has insisted that any peace deal should also cover the fighting in Lebanon. The ceasefire was part of an understanding reached with the US and mediated by Pakistan, Iranian media reported, citing a foreign ministry spokesperson. “May have been a historic day for Lebanon. Good things are happening!!!” Trump said on social media late on Thursday. In an earlier post, he urged Hizbollah to respect the ceasefire. “I hope Hizbollah acts nicely and well during this important period of time. It will be an GREAT moment for them if they do. No more killing. Must finally have PEACE!” he said. Conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed Hizbollah in Lebanon was reignited by the US-Israeli war with Iran. Hizbollah opened fire in support of Teheran on Mar 2, prompting an Israeli offensive in Lebanon that authorities say has killed 2,000 people, 15 months after their last major conflict. Celebratory gunfire rang out across parts of Beirut as the clock struck midnight on Thursday to mark the start of the truce and witnesses heard explosions from rockets fired in celebration, prompting a safety warning and threat of arrests from the Lebanese Army.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黎巴嫩的停火於週四生效，特朗普表示他已與以色列總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡和黎巴嫩總統約瑟夫·阿翁進行了交談，並計劃邀請他們在接下來的一兩週內到白宮進行 “有意義的談判”。伊朗堅持認為，任何和平協議也應涵蓋黎巴嫩的衝突。伊朗媒體援引外交部發言人的話報道，停火是與美國達成的理解的一部分，並由巴基斯坦調解。“這可能是黎巴嫩的歷史性一天。好事正在發生！！！” 特朗普在週四晚些時候的社交媒體上説。在早些時候的帖子中，他呼籲真主黨尊重停火。“我希望真主黨在這個重要時期表現得體。如果他們這樣做，將是他們的一個偉大時刻。不能再殺戮。必須最終實現和平！” 他説。以色列與伊朗支持的真主黨之間的衝突因美以與伊朗的戰爭而重新點燃。真主黨在 3 月 2 日開火支持德黑蘭，導致以色列在黎巴嫩的攻勢，官方稱已造成 2000 人死亡，距他們上一次重大沖突已過去 15 個月。週四午夜，貝魯特部分地區響起慶祝性槍聲，以慶祝停火的開始，目擊者聽到火箭發射的爆炸聲，促使黎巴嫩軍隊發出安全警告並威脅逮捕。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/5d060d5b31df0a4e31b64fcf22f0bb6148dfff3e5846e65af1f559315d5041d4" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/5d060d5b31df0a4e31b64fcf22f0bb6148dfff3e5846e65af1f559315d5041d4"/></p>
<p>A crowd in Sidon, Lebanon, celebrates on Apr 17 as displaced people return to their homes after a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel went into effect. PHOTO: REUTERS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黎巴嫩西頓的羣眾在 4 月 17 日慶祝，因黎巴嫩與以色列之間的停火協議生效，流離失所的人們返回家園。照片：路透社</p>
</div><p>But the pause in hostilities remained fragile, with the army early on Friday reporting that Israel had already violated the ceasefire with intermittent shelling of several southern Lebanese villages. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military, which had said earlier that its forces remained deployed in the area, in what a spokesperson said was in response to continued Hizbollah militant activity. Hizbollah released a lengthy statement on its military operations against Israel throughout Thursday, which listed its last attack as being 10 minutes before the ceasefire took effect. The truce was “essential, urgently needed and a demand shared by all,” senior Hizbollah official Bilal Lakkiss told NBC News ahead of the start of the ceasefire, but said the group would not comply with Israel’s demand that it disarm “except within a framework tied to a broader national security vision”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但停火的局勢依然脆弱，軍方在週五早些時候報告稱，以色列已經通過對幾處南黎巴嫩村莊的間歇性炮擊違反了停火協議。以色列軍方沒有立即對此作出回應，早些時候曾表示其部隊仍在該地區部署，發言人稱這是對真主黨武裝活動持續的回應。真主黨在週四發佈了一份關於其對以色列軍事行動的長篇聲明，列出了其最後一次攻擊是在停火生效前 10 分鐘。真主黨高級官員比拉爾·拉基斯在停火開始前告訴 NBC 新聞，停火是 “必要的、迫切需要的，並且是所有人共同的要求”，但表示該組織不會遵從以色列要求其解除武裝的要求，“除非在與更廣泛的國家安全願景相關的框架內”。</p>
</div><h2>Nuclear ambitions a sticking point</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>核野心成為談判障礙</h2>
</div><p>Teheran’s nuclear ambitions were a sticking point at talks in Islamabad last weekend, where the US proposed a 20-year suspension of all nuclear activity by Iran. Teheran suggested a halt of three to five years, according to people familiar with the proposals. Trump on Thursday said Iran had offered not to possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years. Iran has demanded that international sanctions be lifted and Washington has pressed for any highly enriched uranium to be removed from Iran. Two Iranian sources said there were signs of a compromise on the highly enriched uranium stockpile, with Teheran considering shipping part of it out of the country. REUTERS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德黑蘭的核野心在上週末伊斯蘭堡的談判中成為了一個障礙，美國提議伊朗暫停所有核活動 20 年。德黑蘭則建議暫停三到五年，根據熟悉提案的人士的説法。特朗普在週四表示，伊朗已提出不擁有核武器超過 20 年的承諾。伊朗要求解除國際制裁，而華盛頓則要求將任何高度濃縮鈾從伊朗移除。兩名伊朗消息人士表示，關於高度濃縮鈾庫存的妥協跡象顯現，德黑蘭正在考慮將部分庫存運出國境。路透社</p>
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特朗普表示，美國與伊朗 “非常接近” 達成協議；雙方可能會在週末會面