<div id="readability-page-1"><div>Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange are climbing into the end of the week, reaching $3,621 a ton and approaching the peak seen during Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The problem now is that the aluminum market has been thrust into a serious supply shock amid the U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East, one that is unlikely to be reversed in the near term.One big problem we highlighted last weekend was that Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA), the Gulf's largest aluminum producer, declared force majeure on part of its contract book after Iranian missile and drone strikes hit its Al Taweelah smelter. Then there is the Hormuz chokepoint and the U.S. blockade of the critical waterway, which has only further throttled vessel traffic.It is important to note that EGA accounts for 4% of the world's aluminum production. The broader Middle East accounts for about 9% of global aluminum production.JPMorgan analysts have warned that the industry is descending into a black hole, or a &#34;metaphorical point of no return,&#34; where the &#34;global aluminum market will face a serious and prolonged supply outage,&#34; even if vessel flows through the Hormuz chokepoint resume in the near term.The analysts warned clients earlier this week that the market has now entered that dangerous void, and LME prices could soon reach $4,000 a ton as the largest supply deficit in more than 25 years quickly emerges.<img width="500" height="278" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zerohedge.com/_next/image/query-cT03NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9hc3NldHMuemVyb2hlZGdlLmNvbS9zM2ZzLXB1YmxpYy9pbmxpbmUtaW1hZ2VzL1NuYWdfNWU0YjVkNmQucG5nJnc9MTkyMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zerohedge.com/_next/image/query-cT03NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9hc3NldHMuemVyb2hlZGdlLmNvbS9zM2ZzLXB1YmxpYy9pbmxpbmUtaW1hZ2VzL1NuYWdfNWU0YjVkNmQucG5nJnc9MTkyMA"/>Goldman commodity specialist James McGeoch recently warned clients, &#34;Hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock: High degree of expectation this was where it was heading, but the initial reaction was to fade the uncertainty yesterday, that should be replaced by fresh length if history is a guide.&#34;Countries exposed to Gulf aluminum shipments include the U.S., Japan, Turkey, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Italy, Greece, and India. Any supply shock could hit Western manufacturers, allowing alternative suppliers in China and Russia to step up.</div></div>

俄鋁

中國鋁業

倫敦金屬交易所的鋁價正在上漲，接近每噸 3,621 美元，這一供應衝擊與美伊衝突有關。阿聯酋全球鋁業在其冶煉廠遭到攻擊後宣佈不可抗力，這影響了全球 4% 的鋁生產。分析師警告稱，可能會出現嚴重的供應中斷，價格可能達到每噸 4,000 美元。這一情況可能會影響依賴海灣鋁材運輸的國家，使來自中國和俄羅斯的供應商獲得市場份額

Aluminum Market Descends Into Supply 'Black Hole'

ZeroHedge

廣發中證稀有金屬ETF

國泰中證有色金屬ETF

國泰中證有色金屬礦業主題ETF

南方中證申萬有色金屬ETF

華夏中證細分有色金屬產業主題ETF

有色龍頭ETF

有色金屬

有色50

摩根大通

高盛

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.20% DEP SHS REPSTG 1/400TH PFD SER MM

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 6%NON CUM DEP SHS REP 1/400TH PFD SER EE

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. DEP REP 1/400TH (5.75% NON CUM PFD DD)

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.625% DEP SH RE 1/400TH INT NO CU PF LL

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.55% DEP SHS REPSTG 1/400TH PFD SER JJ

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.75 DEP SHS REP 1/400 NCUM PFD SR GG

GS Hldg R

鋁市場陷入供應 ‘黑洞’