<ul>
<li>伊朗 reportedly 再次關閉霍爾木茲海峽，威脅週五的走勢</li>
<li>USD/JPY 仍在跟蹤原油走勢</li>
<li>週五的回調在關鍵支撐附近被買入</li>
<li>160.46 的三月高點再次受到關注</li>
<li>數據較少的一週，頭條新聞最為重要</li>
</ul>
<h2>USD/JPY 展望摘要</h2>
<p>較低的能源價格和日本銀行持續干預的威脅確保了 USD/JPY 上週保持在近期高點之下。但在主要交叉貨幣中情況有所不同，由於日本銀行本月加息的可能性降低，日元對歐元、英鎊和澳元貶值至新低。然而，自上週五收盤以來，霍爾木茲海峽出現了新的地緣政治緊張跡象，且 USD/JPY 處於暗示最終恢復之前看漲趨勢的結構中，交易者應警惕進入新交易周時可能出現的上漲壓力。</p>
<h2>USD/JPY 仍然是能源交易</h2>
<p>日本作為主要的淨能源進口國，與美國形成鮮明對比，仍然是當前 USD/JPY 走勢的主要驅動因素。如下面的相關矩陣所示，上週與布倫特和 WTI 期貨的正相關關係分別保持在 0.85 和 0.95 的極端水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094010-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="699" height="388" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094010-1.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>雖然 USD/JPY 在過去一週也與美國兩年和十年期收益率差異顯示出強相關性，但這並不是主要驅動因素，這也反映出美國利率前景受到能源價格波動的嚴重影響。這可以從下面的五分鐘逐筆圖表中看到，該圖表跟蹤了過去兩週 USD/JPY（黑色）與 WTI 原油期貨（藍色）和美國兩年期收益率（紅色）的走勢。它們本質上是同一交易，強調了霍爾木茲海峽的發展對市場表現的影響。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094146-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1001" height="637" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094146-2.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>因此，儘管 USD/JPY 與風險偏好的歷史正相關關係，但它仍然與 S&amp;P 500 期貨等資產保持相對強的負相關關係，並且與美國股票或債券市場的隱含波動率指標沒有顯著的負相關關係。</p>
<p>忘掉風險偏好，忘掉利率差異。對 USD/JPY 來説，最重要的是原油價格的走勢。</p>
<h2>霍爾木茲海峽風險在週末迴歸</h2>
<p>週五收盤時的情緒改善在週末受到打擊，多個發展跡象表明中東地區的緊張局勢再次升級。伊朗 reportedly 重新對霍爾木茲海峽的船舶交通實施限制，扭轉了商業流動可能正常化的短暫樂觀情緒，同時也有報道稱在該水道內外運營的油輪發生了攻擊事件。</p>
<p>與此同時，以色列與黎巴嫩之間的新衝突可能會破壞現有的停火協議，並重新引發對更廣泛地區衝突的擔憂。加劇不安的是，如果談判失敗或當前安排崩潰，可能會有新的美國轟炸的猜測，這直接挑戰了推動上週末原油價格急劇下跌的降級敍事。</p>
<p>顯然，這是一個負面發展，如果持續到週一開盤，可能會導致週五能源價格下跌的一大部分被逆轉。根據上述相關性分析，這將為 USD/JPY 帶來即時的上漲風險。</p>
<p>由於市場仍然關注中東的發展，而本週的日曆缺乏真正的美國頂級數據發佈，加上在四月 FOMC 會議前的黑暗期內沒有美聯儲對貨幣政策的評論，未來幾天的事件風險似乎對 USD/JPY 的影響較小。</p>
<h2>數據風險在地緣政治面前黯然失色</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094218-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1424" height="1176" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094218-3.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>週二發佈的三月零售銷售數據將提供一些關於消費者在伊朗戰爭的第一個完整月中如何應對飆升的汽油和柴油價格的見解，使其成為本週的頭條新聞，因為消費在美國經濟中佔據了絕大部分。預計名義銷售將增長 1.3%，但更具指導性的是剔除能源的指標。</p>
<p>除了這一發布，日曆基本上是空白的，閃電 PMI 和失業救濟申請是唯一值得一提的其他數據。20 年期國債拍賣可能會吸引一些關注，但這是市場參與者傳統上不喜歡的期限，往往會帶來頭條新聞，但對更廣泛的國債需求信號較少。</p>
<p>在日本，四月的閃電 PMI 報告將提供一些關於伊朗戰爭對經濟影響的感覺，但歷史上很少對市場產生影響。週五在亞洲發佈的三月國家通脹報告同樣可能適用，因為它在幾周前發佈的東京 CPI 報告中基本上被取代。</p>
<h2>牛旗形態保持上漲偏好</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094425-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1001" height="637" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094425-4.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>USD/JPY 繼續在 160 以下緩慢下行，儘管從近期價格走勢來看，買家在出現顯著回調時仍願意介入。雖然這不是教科書式的例子，但這使得該貨幣對在一個類似牛旗的結構中交易，這是一種擴展模式，警告最終恢復之前看漲趨勢的風險。</p>
<p>週五的蠟燭圖可能特別具有指導意義，新的多周低點的回撤遭遇了一波買盤，恰逢旗形支撐與 50 日移動平均線的交匯，儘管能源市場出現了大幅虧損，但該會話卻出現了顯著的反轉。這表明，美元/日元對能源價格下行波動的敏感性目前受到限制，幫助該貨幣對在近期高點下方保持支撐，儘管面臨日本央行的干預風險，以及對美國與伊朗之間最終達成持久和平協議的持續樂觀情緒。</p>
<p>相對強弱指數（RSI）（14）和移動平均收斂發散指標（MACD）在方向風險方面的信息大致中性，前者繼續在 50 水平附近下滑，而後者在跌破信號線後逐漸回落至盈虧平衡點。儘管過去一個月出現了逐漸的下行趨勢，但仍然感覺短期之外的風險偏向上行。</p>
<p>在當前水平之上，159.30 在最近幾周既充當了支撐又充當了阻力，使其成為一個值得關注的水平，緊接着是現在略高於的旗形阻力。如果突破並收盤在後者之上，可能會激勵新的看漲興趣，最初目標是重新測試 3 月份創下的年內高點 160.46。如果這一點被幹淨突破，牛市的下一個上行目標將是 2024 年的高點 161.95，這是與之前日本央行干預事件相關的水平。</p>
<p>在下行方面，50 日移動平均線、3 月 19 日的低點 157.52 和旗形支撐的交匯處為基於當前價格走勢的多頭提供了一個吸引人的入場區。如果該區域失守，100 日移動平均線以及 156.53 和 155.64 的次要支撐將是評估短期目標或交易設置時需要關注的水平。</p>

西方石油

2 倍做空日元 ETF - ProShares

<p>美元/日元的前景受到霍爾木茲海峽重新出現的地緣政治緊張局勢的影響，伊朗 reportedly 再次限制船隻通行。這可能導致美元/日元的看漲趨勢重新恢復，該貨幣對仍與能源價格密切相關。儘管本週美國沒有重要的數據發佈，但市場關注中東的發展，這可能會逆轉近期能源價格的下跌，併為美元/日元帶來上行風險。值得關注的關鍵數據包括美國零售銷售和日本的初值 PMI 報告，儘管它們可能對市場的影響有限</p>

<ul>
<li>Iran reportedly shuts Hormuz again, threatening Friday’s moves</li>
<li>USD/JPY still tracking crude moves</li>
<li>Friday dip bought near key support</li>
<li>160.46 March high back in focus</li>
<li>Light data week, headlines matter most</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>伊朗 reportedly 再次關閉霍爾木茲海峽，威脅週五的走勢</li>
<li>USD/JPY 仍在跟蹤原油走勢</li>
<li>週五的回調在關鍵支撐附近被買入</li>
<li>160.46 的三月高點再次受到關注</li>
<li>數據較少的一週，頭條新聞最為重要</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>USD/JPY Outlook Summary</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>USD/JPY 展望摘要</h2>
</div><p>Lower energy prices and the ongoing threat of intervention from the Bank of Japan ensured USD/JPY remained capped beneath recent highs last week. But against the major crosses it was a different story, with diminishing probability of a rate hike from the BoJ later this month seeing the yen weaken to fresh lows against the euro, pound and Aussie. However, with signs of renewed geopolitical tension emerging in the Strait of Hormuz since Friday's close, and with USD/JPY sitting within a structure that hints at an eventual resumption of the prior bullish trend, traders should be alert to the risk of renewed upside pressure as we enter the new trading week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>較低的能源價格和日本銀行持續干預的威脅確保了 USD/JPY 上週保持在近期高點之下。但在主要交叉貨幣中情況有所不同，由於日本銀行本月加息的可能性降低，日元對歐元、英鎊和澳元貶值至新低。然而，自上週五收盤以來，霍爾木茲海峽出現了新的地緣政治緊張跡象，且 USD/JPY 處於暗示最終恢復之前看漲趨勢的結構中，交易者應警惕進入新交易周時可能出現的上漲壓力。</p>
</div><h2>USD/JPY remains an energy trade</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>USD/JPY 仍然是能源交易</h2>
</div><p>Japan’s standing as a major net energy importer, the polar opposite of the United States, remains the dominant driver of USD/JPY movements right now. As seen in the correlation matrix below, the positive relationship with Brent and WTI futures remained near extreme levels at 0.85 and 0.95 respectively last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本作為主要的淨能源進口國，與美國形成鮮明對比，仍然是當前 USD/JPY 走勢的主要驅動因素。如下面的相關矩陣所示，上週與布倫特和 WTI 期貨的正相關關係分別保持在 0.85 和 0.95 的極端水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094010-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094010-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>While USD/JPY has also shown a strong correlation with US two and 10-year yield differentials over the past week, rather than being the primary driver, that too reflects how heavily the US interest rate outlook is being influenced by energy price fluctuations. That can be seen in the five-minute tick chart below tracking movements in USD/JPY (black) against WTI crude futures (blue) and US two-year yields (red) over the past fortnight. They are essentially the same trade, underlining how influential developments in the Strait of Hormuz remain when it comes to market performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然 USD/JPY 在過去一週也與美國兩年和十年期收益率差異顯示出強相關性，但這並不是主要驅動因素，這也反映出美國利率前景受到能源價格波動的嚴重影響。這可以從下面的五分鐘逐筆圖表中看到，該圖表跟蹤了過去兩週 USD/JPY（黑色）與 WTI 原油期貨（藍色）和美國兩年期收益率（紅色）的走勢。它們本質上是同一交易，強調了霍爾木茲海峽的發展對市場表現的影響。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094146-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094146-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>As such, despite its historical positive relationship with risk appetite, USD/JPY continues to trade with a reasonably strong inverse relationship with the likes of S&amp;P 500 futures, and has seen no meaningful inverse correlation with either US stock or bond market implied volatility measures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，儘管 USD/JPY 與風險偏好的歷史正相關關係，但它仍然與 S&amp;P 500 期貨等資產保持相對強的負相關關係，並且與美國股票或債券市場的隱含波動率指標沒有顯著的負相關關係。</p>
</div><p>Forget risk appetite, forget rate differentials. What matters most to USD/JPY right now is where the crude price is heading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>忘掉風險偏好，忘掉利率差異。對 USD/JPY 來説，最重要的是原油價格的走勢。</p>
</div><h2>Hormuz risks return over weekend</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>霍爾木茲海峽風險在週末迴歸</h2>
</div><p>The improvement in sentiment seen into Friday’s close has taken a hit over the weekend, with several developments pointing to renewed tension across the Middle East. Iran reportedly reimposed restrictions on vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, reversing the brief optimism that commercial flows may normalise, while there were also reports of attacks involving tankers operating in and around the waterway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五收盤時的情緒改善在週末受到打擊，多個發展跡象表明中東地區的緊張局勢再次升級。伊朗 reportedly 重新對霍爾木茲海峽的船舶交通實施限制，扭轉了商業流動可能正常化的短暫樂觀情緒，同時也有報道稱在該水道內外運營的油輪發生了攻擊事件。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, fresh clashes between Israel and Lebanon risk undermining the existing ceasefire agreement and reviving fears of a broader regional conflict. Adding to the unease, there has also been speculation that renewed US bombing could follow if negotiations fail or current arrangements break down, directly challenges the de-escalation narrative that drove the sharp fall in crude prices at the end of last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，以色列與黎巴嫩之間的新衝突可能會破壞現有的停火協議，並重新引發對更廣泛地區衝突的擔憂。加劇不安的是，如果談判失敗或當前安排崩潰，可能會有新的美國轟炸的猜測，這直接挑戰了推動上週末原油價格急劇下跌的降級敍事。</p>
</div><p>Clearly, this is a negative development that, if maintained into Monday’s open, could see a significant chunk of Friday’s energy price declines reversed. Based on the correlation analysis above, that would create immediate upside risks for USD/JPY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>顯然，這是一個負面發展，如果持續到週一開盤，可能會導致週五能源價格下跌的一大部分被逆轉。根據上述相關性分析，這將為 USD/JPY 帶來即時的上漲風險。</p>
</div><p>With markets still fixated on developments in the Middle East and this week’s calendar lacking genuine top-tier US data releases, along with no Fed commentary on monetary policy as the blackout period begins ahead of the April FOMC meeting, scheduled event risk looks a distant secondary driver for USD/JPY in the days ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於市場仍然關注中東的發展，而本週的日曆缺乏真正的美國頂級數據發佈，加上在四月 FOMC 會議前的黑暗期內沒有美聯儲對貨幣政策的評論，未來幾天的事件風險似乎對 USD/JPY 的影響較小。</p>
</div><h2>Data risk fades behind geopolitics</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>數據風險在地緣政治面前黯然失色</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094218-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094218-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Retail sales data for March released Tuesday will provide some insight into how consumers responded to surging gasoline and diesel prices during the first full month of the Iran war, making it the headline act for the week given consumption is by far the largest part of the broader US economy. A 1.3% increase in nominal sales is forecast, but what will be far more instructive is the ex-energy measure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週二發佈的三月零售銷售數據將提供一些關於消費者在伊朗戰爭的第一個完整月中如何應對飆升的汽油和柴油價格的見解，使其成為本週的頭條新聞，因為消費在美國經濟中佔據了絕大部分。預計名義銷售將增長 1.3%，但更具指導性的是剔除能源的指標。</p>
</div><p>Outside that release, the calendar is essentially bare, with flash PMIs and jobless claims the only other data worth mentioning. The 20-year Treasury bond auction may attract some eyeballs, but it is a tenor that market participants have traditionally disliked, making it an event that often delivers headlines but far less signal on broader Treasury demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了這一發布，日曆基本上是空白的，閃電 PMI 和失業救濟申請是唯一值得一提的其他數據。20 年期國債拍賣可能會吸引一些關注，但這是市場參與者傳統上不喜歡的期限，往往會帶來頭條新聞，但對更廣泛的國債需求信號較少。</p>
</div><p>In Japan, the flash PMI reports for April will provide some sense of the impact of the Iran war on the economy, but historically rarely move markets. The same likely applies to the national inflation report for March due Friday in Asia, given it has largely been superseded by the Tokyo CPI release published several weeks earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日本，四月的閃電 PMI 報告將提供一些關於伊朗戰爭對經濟影響的感覺，但歷史上很少對市場產生影響。週五在亞洲發佈的三月國家通脹報告同樣可能適用，因為它在幾周前發佈的東京 CPI 報告中基本上被取代。</p>
</div><h2>Bull flag keeps upside bias alive</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>牛旗形態保持上漲偏好</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094425-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094425-4.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>USD/JPY continues to grind lower beneath 160, although it is obvious from the recent price action that buyers remain willing to step in on meaningful dips when they occur. While not a textbook example, that leaves the pair trading in a structure resembling a bull flag, an extension pattern that warns of the risk of an eventual resumption of the prior bullish trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>USD/JPY 繼續在 160 以下緩慢下行，儘管從近期價格走勢來看，買家在出現顯著回調時仍願意介入。雖然這不是教科書式的例子，但這使得該貨幣對在一個類似牛旗的結構中交易，這是一種擴展模式，警告最終恢復之前看漲趨勢的風險。</p>
</div><p>Friday’s candle may prove particularly instructive, with a retracement to fresh multi-week lows met by a wall of buying ahead of the intersection of flag support and the 50-day moving average, delivering a sizeable reversal for the session despite steep losses in energy markets. It gives the sense that USD/JPY’s sensitivity to downside moves in energy prices is limited right now, helping keep the pair supported just beneath recent highs even with intervention risk from the BoJ and persistent optimism that an eventual lasting peace agreement between the US and Iran will be reached.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五的蠟燭圖可能特別具有指導意義，新的多周低點的回撤遭遇了一波買盤，恰逢旗形支撐與 50 日移動平均線的交匯，儘管能源市場出現了大幅虧損，但該會話卻出現了顯著的反轉。這表明，美元/日元對能源價格下行波動的敏感性目前受到限制，幫助該貨幣對在近期高點下方保持支撐，儘管面臨日本央行的干預風險，以及對美國與伊朗之間最終達成持久和平協議的持續樂觀情緒。</p>
</div><p>The message from RSI (14) and MACD is largely neutral when it comes to directional risks, with the former continuing to drift lower around the 50 level while the latter eases back towards breakeven after crossing below the signal line. Even with the gradual downtrend seen over the past month, it still feels like risks beyond the short term remain skewed higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相對強弱指數（RSI）（14）和移動平均收斂發散指標（MACD）在方向風險方面的信息大致中性，前者繼續在 50 水平附近下滑，而後者在跌破信號線後逐漸回落至盈虧平衡點。儘管過去一個月出現了逐漸的下行趨勢，但仍然感覺短期之外的風險偏向上行。</p>
</div><p>Above current levels, 159.30 has acted as both support and resistance over recent weeks, making it a level of note before flag resistance which now sits marginally overhead. A break and close above the latter may encourage fresh bullish interest, initially targeting a retest of the year-to-date high of 160.46 set in March. If that were broken cleanly, the next topside target for bulls would be the 2024 high of 161.95, a level associated with a prior BoJ intervention episode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在當前水平之上，159.30 在最近幾周既充當了支撐又充當了阻力，使其成為一個值得關注的水平，緊接着是現在略高於的旗形阻力。如果突破並收盤在後者之上，可能會激勵新的看漲興趣，最初目標是重新測試 3 月份創下的年內高點 160.46。如果這一點被幹淨突破，牛市的下一個上行目標將是 2024 年的高點 161.95，這是與之前日本央行干預事件相關的水平。</p>
</div><p>On the downside, the intersection of the 50-day moving average, the March 19 low of 157.52 and flag support provides an appealing entry zone for longs based on the prevailing price action. If that area were to give way, the 100-day moving average, along with minor supports at 156.53 and 155.64, are the levels to watch when assessing short targets or trade setups.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下行方面，50 日移動平均線、3 月 19 日的低點 157.52 和旗形支撐的交匯處為基於當前價格走勢的多頭提供了一個吸引人的入場區。如果該區域失守，100 日移動平均線以及 156.53 和 155.64 的次要支撐將是評估短期目標或交易設置時需要關注的水平。</p>
</div>

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