<ul>
<li>參議院銀行委員會將審查瓦什的美聯儲改革議程與政策觀點</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>週二的會議是確認之路曲折進程中的下一步</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>這位前美聯儲理事長期擁有批評央行的記錄，細節有待梳理</li>
</ul><p>作者：霍華德·施奈德</p><p>華盛頓，4 月 20 日（路透社）——在批評美國央行超過十年後，前美聯儲理事凱文·瓦什將於週二面臨一場 “市場定價時刻”。屆時，國會議員們可能會向這位美聯儲主席提名人施壓，要求其詳細闡述貨幣政策與經濟理念，並闡明其對根本性變革的呼籲。這場在參議院銀行委員會舉行的聽證會，是這位 56 歲金融家在通往美聯儲總部華盛頓核心職位道路上的又一步驟，儘管這一路徑仍充滿爭議。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的最後任職日表面上定於 5 月 15 日，但關鍵共和黨人已承諾，除非特朗普政府放棄他們視為毫無根據且威脅美聯儲獨立性的針對鮑威爾及央行的刑事調查，否則將阻止瓦什獲得確認。這不僅是貨幣政策技術層面的關鍵時刻，更是美聯儲自二戰結束後不久以來面臨的最嚴峻地位挑戰。唐納德·特朗普總統發動了一場積極攻勢，旨在加強對央行的影響力，要求實施大幅降息，並在政策制定者未能兑現時加以嚴厲指責。財政部長斯科特·貝森特也在討論徹底改革美聯儲運作或央行與財政部之間達成新的 “協議” 的背景下對美聯儲提出批評，這兩個機構職能不同，若相互交織可能引發人們對將國家日益增長的債務貨幣化的擔憂。“瓦什是否無條件支持美聯儲獨立性，並與政府呼籲大幅降息的立場保持距離？” 德意志銀行首席美國經濟學家馬修·盧齊蒂及其同事上週在聽證會預覽中寫道，“瓦什必須贏得市場對他在實現通脹目標方面的承諾的信任與信譽；這是新任主席必須始終努力獲得的資質。在當前背景下，這一要求可能更為迫切。”</p><p>國會議員們有充足的工作素材。通脹率仍高於美聯儲 2% 的目標；受伊朗戰爭影響，油價曾飆升，但上週有所回落；特朗普認為央行政策利率應降至 1%；人工智能和加密貨幣——瓦什作為投資者的兩大興趣領域——可能重塑經濟格局。瓦什原本以緊縮貨幣和通脹鷹派著稱，如今卻轉變為相信由於技術驅動的生產力提升，降低利率是合適的。同樣，他長期堅持的關於美聯儲應縮減其 6.71 萬億美元資產負債表的信念也發生了變化，這一立場是在他擔任理事期間，當央行債券持倉最初急劇膨脹時形成的。</p><p>頻繁批評者 在過去一年裏，當特朗普考慮為鮑威爾尋找繼任者時，瓦什多次對美聯儲發出尖鋭批評，呼籲 “政權更迭”，稱自己的角色將是 “敲掉一些人的腦袋”，並將鮑威爾的領導描述為 “崩潰”，但未詳細説明他將如何改變現狀。他的提名標誌着多年來的社論、學術講座和電視採訪的頂點，其中許多是通過他在斯坦福大學胡佛研究所擔任謝潑德家族傑出經濟學訪問學者的身份進行的。該研究所被視為分析師中批評美聯儲的中心，這些分析師認為近期的政策制定時期魯莽且具有實驗性。瓦什在斯坦福大學獲得公共政策學士學位，隨後畢業於哈佛法學院，他曾表示受到胡佛研究所關鍵人物如貨幣學派學者米爾頓·弗裏德曼和經濟學家約翰·泰勒的影響。兩人都推崇受限形式的中央銀行制度，弗裏德曼的理論植根於貨幣供應量的增長，而泰勒則以其同名 “泰勒規則” 為基礎，將建議利率與美聯儲的雙重目標（通脹與就業）掛鈎。瓦什稱讚基於規則的決策具有 “理想性”，但並未承諾採用它，這引發了批評者和支持者對該方法能否真正實施的強烈關注。瓦什近期關於利率的觀點，以及特朗普對其產生的影響，很可能也是即將舉行的聽證會的焦點。該聽證會將由參議員蒂姆·斯科特主持，他與其它共和黨人雖對推進聽證會的條件存在分歧，但對瓦什的提名持讚賞態度。</p><h3>瓦什的世界觀</h3><p>這位提名人關於利率的觀點呼應了前美聯儲主席艾倫·格林斯潘在 20 世紀 90 年代提出的關於生產力對通脹影響的論點，同時也與特朗普呼籲降低利率的立場保持一致。特朗普曾表示，他只提名那些他確信會降低借貸成本的人選。美聯儲龐大的資產負債表也是一個敏感議題。為應對 2007-2009 年金融危機，資產負債表規模急劇擴大，目前持有大量國債和抵押貸款支持證券已成為美聯儲控制利率以實現 2% 通脹目標和最大就業目標的常規工具。</p><p>作為二十年前那場危機期間的美聯儲理事，瓦什反對資產負債表看似無限制的擴張，與其他保守經濟學家一樣，他認為這會扭曲金融市場。他選擇在 2011 年退出央行，而非在政策辯論仍聚焦於幫助經濟擺脱危機後疲軟增長的過程中，通過投出異議票與當時的美聯儲主席本·伯南克公開決裂。週二的聽證會或許會重演那個時代。瓦什於 2006 年由喬治·W·布什總統任命加入美聯儲，當時次貸危機全面爆發，演變為全面的金融崩盤，不僅引發了美聯儲購買債券，還導致了政府對華爾街的大規模救助。像鮑威爾一樣，瓦什也是一位律師，並且與家人有着與包括特朗普在內的共和黨高層的聯繫。除學術背景外，他因其華爾街智慧和人際交往能力而備受讚譽。據本週聽證會前提交的財務披露文件顯示，他協助引導了這些備受爭議的金融部門救援行動，隨後重返華爾街，擔任億萬富翁投資者斯坦利·德魯肯米勒的顧問，這一職位幫助他積累了超過 1 億美元的個人財富。“在危機爆發前夕，瓦什先生未能有意義地識別或解決與次級抵押貸款及衍生品相關的風險，” 參議院銀行委員會最高民主黨人伊麗莎白·沃倫在 4 月 15 日致信鮑威爾的信中寫道，信中要求提供詳細文件，説明瓦什在危機期間於美聯儲的角色。</p><p>沃倫寫道：“自 2008 年以來，已有充分文件記錄表明，瓦什先生在擔任美聯儲理事期間，未能認真對待次貸市場帶來的風險，並在安排多次數十億美元、由納税人出資向捲入危機的金融機構注資方面發揮了核心作用。”</p>

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<ul>
<li>Senate Banking Committee to scrutinize Warsh’s Fed reform agenda, policy views</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>參議院銀行委員會將審查瓦什的美聯儲改革議程與政策觀點</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Session on Tuesday is next step in tangled path to confirmation</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>週二的會議是確認之路曲折進程中的下一步</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Former Fed governor has long track record of central bank criticism to unpack, detail</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>這位前美聯儲理事長期擁有批評央行的記錄，細節有待梳理</li>
</ul></div><p>By Howard Schneider</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：霍華德·施奈德</p></div><p>WASHINGTON, April 20 (Reuters) - After more than a decade criticizing the U.S. central bank, former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh faces a mark-to-market moment in a Senate hearing on Tuesday when lawmakers will likely press the Fed chief nominee to flesh out his monetary policy and economic ideas and calls for fundamental change. The hearing before the Senate Banking Committee is the next step in the 56-year-old financier’s still-controversial path to the Fed chief’s corner office in the central bank’s headquarters in Washington. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s last day in the top job is ostensibly May 15, but key Republicans have committed to blocking Warsh’s confirmation until the Trump administration drops a criminal probe of Powell and the central bank that they consider frivolous and a threat to its independence. It’s a critical moment beyond the nuts and bolts of monetary policy, as the Fed faces the most intense challenges to its standing since the years immediately following World War Two. President Donald Trump has waged an aggressive campaign to gain more influence over the central bank, demanding that it push through big interest rate cuts and castigating policymakers when they failed to deliver. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also has been critical of the Fed amid discussion about overhauling its operations or striking a new “accord” between the central bank and the Treasury, agencies with distinct roles whose intermingling could raise concerns about efforts to monetize the country’s mounting debt. “Does Warsh voice unconditional support for Fed independence and distance himself from the administration’s call for steep rate cuts?” Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti and his colleagues wrote last week in a preview of the hearing. “Warsh will have to earn market trust and credibility around his commitment to achieving the inflation target; bona fides that always need to be earned by an incoming chair. The requirement could be more acute in the current context.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華盛頓，4 月 20 日（路透社）——在批評美國央行超過十年後，前美聯儲理事凱文·瓦什將於週二面臨一場 “市場定價時刻”。屆時，國會議員們可能會向這位美聯儲主席提名人施壓，要求其詳細闡述貨幣政策與經濟理念，並闡明其對根本性變革的呼籲。這場在參議院銀行委員會舉行的聽證會，是這位 56 歲金融家在通往美聯儲總部華盛頓核心職位道路上的又一步驟，儘管這一路徑仍充滿爭議。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的最後任職日表面上定於 5 月 15 日，但關鍵共和黨人已承諾，除非特朗普政府放棄他們視為毫無根據且威脅美聯儲獨立性的針對鮑威爾及央行的刑事調查，否則將阻止瓦什獲得確認。這不僅是貨幣政策技術層面的關鍵時刻，更是美聯儲自二戰結束後不久以來面臨的最嚴峻地位挑戰。唐納德·特朗普總統發動了一場積極攻勢，旨在加強對央行的影響力，要求實施大幅降息，並在政策制定者未能兑現時加以嚴厲指責。財政部長斯科特·貝森特也在討論徹底改革美聯儲運作或央行與財政部之間達成新的 “協議” 的背景下對美聯儲提出批評，這兩個機構職能不同，若相互交織可能引發人們對將國家日益增長的債務貨幣化的擔憂。“瓦什是否無條件支持美聯儲獨立性，並與政府呼籲大幅降息的立場保持距離？” 德意志銀行首席美國經濟學家馬修·盧齊蒂及其同事上週在聽證會預覽中寫道，“瓦什必須贏得市場對他在實現通脹目標方面的承諾的信任與信譽；這是新任主席必須始終努力獲得的資質。在當前背景下，這一要求可能更為迫切。”</p></div><p>There’s plenty for lawmakers to work with. Inflation is stuck above the Fed’s 2% target; oil prices have skyrocketed thanks to the Iran war, though they receded last week; Trump thinks the central bank’s policy rate should be cut to 1%; artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies, two of Warsh’s interests as an investor, could reshape the economy. Warsh’s tight-money, inflation-hawk reputation has morphed into a belief that lower interest rates are appropriate because of tech-driven productivity. The same thing has happened to a long-held conviction the Fed should shrink its $6.71 trillion balance sheet, a position he developed after serving as a governor when the central bank’s bond holdings initially exploded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國會議員們有充足的工作素材。通脹率仍高於美聯儲 2% 的目標；受伊朗戰爭影響，油價曾飆升，但上週有所回落；特朗普認為央行政策利率應降至 1%；人工智能和加密貨幣——瓦什作為投資者的兩大興趣領域——可能重塑經濟格局。瓦什原本以緊縮貨幣和通脹鷹派著稱，如今卻轉變為相信由於技術驅動的生產力提升，降低利率是合適的。同樣，他長期堅持的關於美聯儲應縮減其 6.71 萬億美元資產負債表的信念也發生了變化，這一立場是在他擔任理事期間，當央行債券持倉最初急劇膨脹時形成的。</p></div><p>FREQUENT CRITIC As Trump mulled naming a successor for Powell over the past year, Warsh lobbed sharp criticisms at the Fed, calling for “regime change,” saying his role would be “knocking some heads,” and labeling Powell’s leadership “broken,” but without detailing how he would change things. His nomination caps years of op-eds, academic lectures, and television interviews, many through his position as the Shepard Family Distinguished Visiting Fellow in Economics at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, a center of Fed criticism among analysts who regard the recent era of policymaking as recklessly experimental. Warsh, who earned a bachelor’s degree in public policy from Stanford before graduating from Harvard Law School, has spoken of being influenced by key Hoover figures including monetarist scholar Milton Friedman and economist John Taylor. Both championed constrained forms of central banking, Friedman’s rooted in growth of the money supply, Taylor’s in an eponymous “Taylor Rule” relating recommended interest rates to the Fed’s dual inflation and employment goals. Warsh has lauded rule-based policymaking as “aspirational” while stopping short of committing to use it, raising questions that both critics and advocates of such an approach will be keen to understand. Warsh’s recent views about interest rates, and how Trump has influenced them, are also likely to be a focus of the upcoming hearing, which will be chaired by Senator Tim Scott, who, along with other Republican lawmakers, has been complimentary of Warsh’s nomination despite the divide over the conditions for proceeding with it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>頻繁批評者 在過去一年裏，當特朗普考慮為鮑威爾尋找繼任者時，瓦什多次對美聯儲發出尖鋭批評，呼籲 “政權更迭”，稱自己的角色將是 “敲掉一些人的腦袋”，並將鮑威爾的領導描述為 “崩潰”，但未詳細説明他將如何改變現狀。他的提名標誌着多年來的社論、學術講座和電視採訪的頂點，其中許多是通過他在斯坦福大學胡佛研究所擔任謝潑德家族傑出經濟學訪問學者的身份進行的。該研究所被視為分析師中批評美聯儲的中心，這些分析師認為近期的政策制定時期魯莽且具有實驗性。瓦什在斯坦福大學獲得公共政策學士學位，隨後畢業於哈佛法學院，他曾表示受到胡佛研究所關鍵人物如貨幣學派學者米爾頓·弗裏德曼和經濟學家約翰·泰勒的影響。兩人都推崇受限形式的中央銀行制度，弗裏德曼的理論植根於貨幣供應量的增長，而泰勒則以其同名 “泰勒規則” 為基礎，將建議利率與美聯儲的雙重目標（通脹與就業）掛鈎。瓦什稱讚基於規則的決策具有 “理想性”，但並未承諾採用它，這引發了批評者和支持者對該方法能否真正實施的強烈關注。瓦什近期關於利率的觀點，以及特朗普對其產生的影響，很可能也是即將舉行的聽證會的焦點。該聽證會將由參議員蒂姆·斯科特主持，他與其它共和黨人雖對推進聽證會的條件存在分歧，但對瓦什的提名持讚賞態度。</p></div><h3>WARSH’S WORLD</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>瓦什的世界觀</h3></div><p>The nominee’s ideas about interest rates echo arguments former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan made during the 1990s about the impact of productivity on inflation, while also putting Warsh in sync with Trump’s call for lower rates. Trump said he would only nominate someone he was confident would lower borrowing costs. The Fed’s massive balance sheet also is a delicate issue. Expanded dramatically to fight the 2007-2009 financial crisis, large holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities are now a staple tool for controlling interest rates for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation and maximum employment goals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這位提名人關於利率的觀點呼應了前美聯儲主席艾倫·格林斯潘在 20 世紀 90 年代提出的關於生產力對通脹影響的論點，同時也與特朗普呼籲降低利率的立場保持一致。特朗普曾表示，他只提名那些他確信會降低借貸成本的人選。美聯儲龐大的資產負債表也是一個敏感議題。為應對 2007-2009 年金融危機，資產負債表規模急劇擴大，目前持有大量國債和抵押貸款支持證券已成為美聯儲控制利率以實現 2% 通脹目標和最大就業目標的常規工具。</p></div><p>A Fed governor during that crisis two decades ago, Warsh opposed the balance sheet’s seemingly open-ended growth alongside other conservative economists who felt it distorted financial markets. He chose to exit the central bank in 2011 rather than publicly break with then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke through dissenting votes during policy debates still focused on lifting the economy out of its post-crisis sluggish growth. The hearing on Tuesday could replay that era. Warsh joined the Fed in 2006, appointed by President George W. Bush, and was a key Bernanke adviser as a subprime housing crisis exploded into a full-blown financial meltdown that triggered not just Fed bond purchases but massive government bailouts for Wall Street. A lawyer like Powell, with family ties to a Republican hierarchy that came to include Trump, Warsh has been lauded as much for his Wall Street smarts and people skills as his academic background. He helped guide those controversial financial sector rescues and then returned to Wall Street to work as an adviser to billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, a position that helped Warsh amass a personal fortune in excess of $100 million, according to financial disclosures filed before this week’s hearing. “In the lead-up to the crisis, Mr. Warsh failed to meaningfully identify or address the risks associated with subprime mortgages and derivatives,” Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Senate Banking Committee’s top Democrat, wrote in an April 15 letter to Powell demanding documents detailing Warsh’s role at the Fed during the crisis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為二十年前那場危機期間的美聯儲理事，瓦什反對資產負債表看似無限制的擴張，與其他保守經濟學家一樣，他認為這會扭曲金融市場。他選擇在 2011 年退出央行，而非在政策辯論仍聚焦於幫助經濟擺脱危機後疲軟增長的過程中，通過投出異議票與當時的美聯儲主席本·伯南克公開決裂。週二的聽證會或許會重演那個時代。瓦什於 2006 年由喬治·W·布什總統任命加入美聯儲，當時次貸危機全面爆發，演變為全面的金融崩盤，不僅引發了美聯儲購買債券，還導致了政府對華爾街的大規模救助。像鮑威爾一樣，瓦什也是一位律師，並且與家人有着與包括特朗普在內的共和黨高層的聯繫。除學術背景外，他因其華爾街智慧和人際交往能力而備受讚譽。據本週聽證會前提交的財務披露文件顯示，他協助引導了這些備受爭議的金融部門救援行動，隨後重返華爾街，擔任億萬富翁投資者斯坦利·德魯肯米勒的顧問，這一職位幫助他積累了超過 1 億美元的個人財富。“在危機爆發前夕，瓦什先生未能有意義地識別或解決與次級抵押貸款及衍生品相關的風險，” 參議院銀行委員會最高民主黨人伊麗莎白·沃倫在 4 月 15 日致信鮑威爾的信中寫道，信中要求提供詳細文件，説明瓦什在危機期間於美聯儲的角色。</p></div><p>“Since 2008, it has been well-documented that Mr. Warsh, in his role as (a) Fed Governor, failed to take seriously the risks posed by the subprime mortgage market and played a central role in helping to arrange numerous multibillion-dollar, taxpayer-funded capital infusions to financial institutions involved in the crisis,” Warren wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃倫寫道：“自 2008 年以來，已有充分文件記錄表明，瓦什先生在擔任美聯儲理事期間，未能認真對待次貸市場帶來的風險，並在安排多次數十億美元、由納税人出資向捲入危機的金融機構注資方面發揮了核心作用。”</p></div>

Fed nominee Warsh prepares for monetary policy road test before Senate panel

- 參議院銀行委員會將審查凱文·瓦什的美聯儲改革議程。  
- 瓦什曾批評美聯儲，當前被提名為新主席候選人。  
- 聽證會將探討貨幣政策及其對經濟的影響。

美聯儲提名人瓦什在參議院小組委員會前為貨幣政策“路測”做準備