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<p>特朗普總統決定提供無限期停火，這在金融市場上引發了混亂，分析師們難以預測戰爭將如何結束。這也表明特朗普越來越陷入困境，並加劇了人們對未來可能出現更糟局面的擔憂。</p>
<h2>唐納德·特朗普認為戰爭會很短暫</h2>
<p>特朗普決定攻擊伊朗是在與本傑明·內塔尼亞胡在危機指揮中心進行緊張會議後做出的。根據《紐約時報》的報道，內塔尼亞胡和摩薩德的戴維·巴爾內亞説服特朗普相信，伊朗在多年中處於最弱狀態，攻擊將會很短暫。</p>
<p>八週後，危機依然存在，且沒有結束的跡象。本週，副總統 JD·範斯、賈裏德·庫什納和史蒂夫·維特科夫計劃前往巴基斯坦與伊朗進行會談，這一情況進一步升級。</p>
<p>就在前一天，特朗普曾宣傳美國與伊朗正在談判的潛在協議，指出這將比奧巴馬的 JCPOA 更好，後者涉及包括俄羅斯和中國在內的世界大國。</p>
<p>然而，計劃中的會談並未進行，因為伊朗對是否參與保持不確定。最終，美國代表團決定不參加，特朗普引用了伊朗政府內部的分歧。</p>
<p>然而，現實是特朗普迫切希望與伊朗達成協議，而伊朗並不急於結束戰爭。雖然伊朗並沒有發起戰爭，但它認為以美國的條件結束戰爭將導致未來幾年再次遭到攻擊。</p>
<h2>為什麼唐納德·特朗普陷入困境</h2>
<p>特朗普陷入沒有好選擇的境地有幾個原因。</p>
<p>首先，他沒有實現開戰時設定的任何目標。儘管他多次聲明，政權更迭並未發生。相反，他用年輕的穆傑塔巴·哈梅內伊取代了 87 歲的哈梅內伊。伊朗革命衞隊的機構依然完好無損。</p>
<p>其次，儘管特朗普和內塔尼亞胡摧毀了很多東西，但媒體報道顯示，伊朗的武裝力量依然強大，約一半的彈道導彈仍然完好無損。</p>
<p>第三，特朗普未能獲取他去年轟炸的濃縮鈾。上週，他在一份聲明中表示，伊朗已同意讓美國獲取這些鈾。</p>
<p>與此同時，特朗普認為會在四周內結束的戰爭現在已經進入第八週，仍然沒有結束的跡象。</p>
<p>在國內，特朗普的情況發生了變化，他一些最忠誠的支持者，如塔克·卡爾森和坎迪斯·歐文斯，開始轉向反對他。本週，卡爾森在一份聲明中指出，他對特朗普的支持將長期困擾他。</p>
<p>對特朗普來説，最糟糕的是，戰爭提高了共和黨在即將到來的選舉中失利的可能性。Polymarket 和 Kashi 的民調顯示，民主黨將贏得眾議院和參議院，這增加了他被彈劾的可能性。</p>
<p>與此同時，特朗普沒有好的辦法退出戰爭。他與伊朗簽署的任何協議都將比奧巴馬談判的更糟，因為伊朗現在將尋求更多的讓步。</p>
<p>此外，如果他決定升級，伊朗有更多的選擇來造成最大痛苦。它可能會摧毀包括海水淡化廠在內的沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋等國的民用基礎設施。</p>
<p>伊朗還可能摧毀沙特阿拉伯的石油管道，或利用安薩·阿拉關閉紅海，這一舉動將影響全球 12% 的石油供應。</p>
<p>特朗普也可能決定放棄伊朗，這一舉動將使局勢比之前更糟，因為後者將完全控制霍爾木茲海峽。</p>
<p>另一個大問題是以色列，可能會推動美國通過發動另一次攻擊來參戰。這一點很重要，因為以色列和美國在這場戰爭中的目標不同。特朗普希望達成核協議，而以色列則希望徹底摧毀伊朗以消除威脅。</p>
<p>特朗普總統陷入困境，已無好選擇的文章首發於 Invezz</p>

西方石油

和順石油

<p>特朗普總統的無限期停火引發了金融市場的混亂，增加了對與伊朗長期衝突的擔憂。儘管最初預期戰爭會很短暫，但局勢卻升級，特朗普面臨着談判可能帶來不利條款的壓力。他未能實現最初目標，加上國內的不滿和潛在的選舉後果，使他面臨有限的選擇。持續的危機對地區穩定構成風險，並可能影響全球石油供應，因為美國和以色列之間的不同目標進一步複雜化了局勢</p>

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<p>President Donald Trump’s decision to offer an indefinite ceasefire has created confusion in the financial markets, with analysts struggling to predict how the war might conclude. It also suggests that Trump is increasingly trapped and has heightened fears that the worst may still lie ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普總統決定提供無限期停火，這在金融市場上引發了混亂，分析師們難以預測戰爭將如何結束。這也表明特朗普越來越陷入困境，並加劇了人們對未來可能出現更糟局面的擔憂。</p>
</div><h2>Donald Trump thought the war would be brief</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>唐納德·特朗普認為戰爭會很短暫</h2>
</div><p>Trump's decision to attack Iran came after a tense meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu at the Situation Room. According to the New York Times, Bibi and Mossad’s David Barnea convinced Trump that Iran was at its weakest in years and that the attack would be brief.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普決定攻擊伊朗是在與本傑明·內塔尼亞胡在危機指揮中心進行緊張會議後做出的。根據《紐約時報》的報道，內塔尼亞胡和摩薩德的戴維·巴爾內亞説服特朗普相信，伊朗在多年中處於最弱狀態，攻擊將會很短暫。</p>
</div><p>Eight weeks later, the crisis still remains, and there is no end in sight. This situation escalated this week as Vice President JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff planned to travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>八週後，危機依然存在，且沒有結束的跡象。本週，副總統 JD·範斯、賈裏德·庫什納和史蒂夫·維特科夫計劃前往巴基斯坦與伊朗進行會談，這一情況進一步升級。</p>
</div><p>A day earlier, Trump had touted a potential deal the US was negotiating with Iran, noting that it would be better than Barack Obama’s JCPOA, which involved the biggest world powers, including Russia and China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在前一天，特朗普曾宣傳美國與伊朗正在談判的潛在協議，指出這將比奧巴馬的 JCPOA 更好，後者涉及包括俄羅斯和中國在內的世界大國。</p>
</div><p>However, the planned talks did not happen as Iran remained non-committed on whether it would participate in them. In the end, the US delegation decided not to attend, with Trump citing the divisions in the Iranian government.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，計劃中的會談並未進行，因為伊朗對是否參與保持不確定。最終，美國代表團決定不參加，特朗普引用了伊朗政府內部的分歧。</p>
</div><p>The reality, however, is that Trump is desperate to make a deal with Iran, a country that is in no hurry to end the war. While Iran did not start the war, it believes that ending on US terms will lead to another attack in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，現實是特朗普迫切希望與伊朗達成協議，而伊朗並不急於結束戰爭。雖然伊朗並沒有發起戰爭，但它認為以美國的條件結束戰爭將導致未來幾年再次遭到攻擊。</p>
</div><h2>Why Donald Trump is trapped</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼唐納德·特朗普陷入困境</h2>
</div><p>There are a few reasons why Trump is trapped in a situation with no good options.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普陷入沒有好選擇的境地有幾個原因。</p>
</div><p>First, he has not achieved any goal he had when he started the war. Despite his repeated statements, a regime change has not happened. Instead, he replaced the 87-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei with the younger Mojtaba Khamenei. The IRGC apparatus remains intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，他沒有實現開戰時設定的任何目標。儘管他多次聲明，政權更迭並未發生。相反，他用年輕的穆傑塔巴·哈梅內伊取代了 87 歲的哈梅內伊。伊朗革命衞隊的機構依然完好無損。</p>
</div><p>Second, while Trump and Netanyahu have destroyed a lot of things, media reports show that Iran is still armed to the core, with about half of its ballistic missiles still intact</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，儘管特朗普和內塔尼亞胡摧毀了很多東西，但媒體報道顯示，伊朗的武裝力量依然強大，約一半的彈道導彈仍然完好無損。</p>
</div><p>Third, Trump has been unable to take the enriched uranium he bombed last year. In a statement last week, he said that Iran had agreed to have the US take the uranium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，特朗普未能獲取他去年轟炸的濃縮鈾。上週，他在一份聲明中表示，伊朗已同意讓美國獲取這些鈾。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the war Trump thought would take less than four weeks is now in the eighth week with no end in sight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，特朗普認為會在四周內結束的戰爭現在已經進入第八週，仍然沒有結束的跡象。</p>
</div><p>Domestically, things have changed for Trump, with some of his most loyal supporters like Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens turning against him. In a statement this week, Carlson noted that his support for Trump would haunt him for so long.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在國內，特朗普的情況發生了變化，他一些最忠誠的支持者，如塔克·卡爾森和坎迪斯·歐文斯，開始轉向反對他。本週，卡爾森在一份聲明中指出，他對特朗普的支持將長期困擾他。</p>
</div><p>The worst part for Trump is that the war has raised the possibility that Republicans will lose the upcoming elections. Polymarket and Kashi polls show that Democrats will win the House and the Senate, raising the possibility that he will be impeached.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對特朗普來説，最糟糕的是，戰爭提高了共和黨在即將到來的選舉中失利的可能性。Polymarket 和 Kashi 的民調顯示，民主黨將贏得眾議院和參議院，這增加了他被彈劾的可能性。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, Trump has no good way to exit the war. Any deal he signs with Iran will be worse than what Obama negotiated, as Iran will now seek more concessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，特朗普沒有好的辦法退出戰爭。他與伊朗簽署的任何協議都將比奧巴馬談判的更糟，因為伊朗現在將尋求更多的讓步。</p>
</div><p>Also, if he decides to escalate, Iran has more options to cause maximum pain. It may destroy civilian infrastructure, including desalination plants, in countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，如果他決定升級，伊朗有更多的選擇來造成最大痛苦。它可能會摧毀包括海水淡化廠在內的沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋等國的民用基礎設施。</p>
</div><p>Iran may also destroy Saudi Arabia’s oil pipeline or use Ansah Allah to shut down the Red Sea, a move that will impact another 12% of global oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗還可能摧毀沙特阿拉伯的石油管道，或利用安薩·阿拉關閉紅海，這一舉動將影響全球 12% 的石油供應。</p>
</div><p>Trump may as well decide to walk away from Iran, a move that will leave the situation worse than before, as the latter will have full control of the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普也可能決定放棄伊朗，這一舉動將使局勢比之前更糟，因為後者將完全控制霍爾木茲海峽。</p>
</div><p>Another big issue is Israel, which may push the US to fight by launching another attack. This is important as Israel and the US have different goals in this war. Trump wants a nuclear deal, while Israel wants a complete destruction of Iran to eliminate the threat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個大問題是以色列，可能會推動美國通過發動另一次攻擊來參戰。這一點很重要，因為以色列和美國在這場戰爭中的目標不同。特朗普希望達成核協議，而以色列則希望徹底摧毀伊朗以消除威脅。</p>
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特朗普總統陷入了無計可施的困境