<p>彭博社報道，商品交易公司正在獲取豐厚收益。如果這些公司在這樣的時刻沒有盈利，那它們就沒有盡到職責。</p>
<p>摘要：</p>
<ul>
<li>主要商品交易商自烏克蘭戰爭以來實現了最強勁的利潤</li>
<li>實體油市的失衡推動了異常的利潤率</li>
<li>每桶 20-30 美元的交易利潤報告突顯了極端的市場條件</li>
<li>霍爾木茲海峽的近乎關閉引發了對即時供應的爭奪</li>
<li>波動性依然高企，地緣政治和價格波動帶來風險</li>
</ul>
<p>全球最大的商品交易公司正在獲得可觀的利潤，因為伊朗戰爭重塑了全球能源市場，極端的波動性和供應中斷創造了有利於經驗豐富的實體交易者的條件。</p>
<p>初步跡象表明，2026 年可能成為該行業自俄羅斯 - 烏克蘭衝突以來最盈利的時期之一，幾家領先公司已經報告了突出的業績。包括維托爾、特拉菲古拉、岡沃爾和梅爾庫里亞在內的私人交易巨頭被認為正在從油市及更廣泛的商品市場的劇烈失衡中受益。</p>
<p>據稱，維托爾在第一季度單獨創造了約 20 億美元的利潤，而特拉菲古拉則報告了兩季度的強勁業績，得益於能源和金屬交易。岡沃爾表示，其第一季度的收益超過了前一年的總和，而梅爾庫里亞預計收益接近其歷史範圍的上限，暗示數十億美元的利潤。</p>
<p>盈利能力的規模反映了非常不尋常的市場條件。霍爾木茲海峽的近乎關閉擾亂了原油和成品的流動，引發了全球對現貨供應的爭奪。這使得現貨貨物的價格大幅溢價，實體油交易的利潤率據報道達到每桶 20 到 30 美元，遠高於正常市場環境下的每桶幾美分的回報。</p>
<p>複雜市場中的價格飆升突顯了擾動的程度。中東原油的基準價格急劇上漲，而噴氣燃料等成品的交易價格也處於極端水平，買家爭相確保供應。在這種環境下，擁有強大物流網絡、儲存能力和市場準入的交易公司能夠通過套利區域不平衡和管理流動來捕捉價值。</p>
<p>重要的是，這種環境正是商品交易者被期望表現的地方。壓力、碎片化和波動性時期是交易專業知識、風險管理和基礎設施帶來超額回報的時候。在這種條件下未能獲利將引發對執行的質疑，因為這些公司正是為了應對這種市場失衡而建立的。</p>
<p>儘管如此，背景並非沒有挑戰。一些公司在衍生品頭寸上遭遇損失，因為價格急劇波動，而中東供應的中斷引發了合同複雜性，包括不可抗力聲明。衝突的早期階段要求公司迅速調整運營，以重新安排流動和確保貨物。</p>
<p>展望未來，管理層警告不確定性依然很高。油價繼續對地緣政治發展做出劇烈反應，包括美國和伊朗官員的聲明，同時更廣泛的宏觀因素也在加劇波動。天氣驅動的需求和金屬市場的強勁進一步支持了額外的收益，提升了整體交易表現。</p>
<p>即便如此，整體敍述是明確的：伊朗戰爭創造了一個高波動性、供應受限的環境，這對全球領先的商品交易商來説是極為盈利的。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>商品交易商的強勁盈利能力是極端市場失衡的信號，而非穩定。高企的實體溢價和套利機會表明供應緊張，支撐油價並加劇通脹風險。只要波動性和供應碎片化持續，交易者將繼續提取價值，但市場在地緣政治條件變化時仍然容易出現劇烈反轉。</p>
<p>---</p>

英國石油

和順石油

<p>商品交易公司因伊朗戰爭導致的石油市場波動而獲得了顯著利潤。像 Vitol、Trafigura、Gunvor 和 Mercuria 等主要參與者報告了異常的利潤率，每桶利潤在 20 到 30 美元之間。霍爾木茲海峽的近乎關閉導致供應緊張，推動了價格上漲。雖然這種環境對交易者有利，但也帶來了挑戰，包括衍生品的潛在損失和地緣政治的不確定性。總體而言，這種情況表明市場極度失衡而非穩定，持續的波動性可能會繼續</p>

<p>Bloomberg reported on commodity trading firms reaping gains. If these firms are not doing so at times like this they are not doing thier jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>彭博社報道，商品交易公司正在獲取豐厚收益。如果這些公司在這樣的時刻沒有盈利，那它們就沒有盡到職責。</p>
</div><p>Summary:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摘要：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Major commodity traders post strongest profits since Ukraine war boom</li>
<li>Dislocations in physical oil markets drive exceptional margins</li>
<li>Reports of $20–$30 per barrel trading profits highlight extreme conditions</li>
<li>Near-closure of Hormuz triggers scramble for immediate supply</li>
<li>Volatility remains elevated, with risks from geopolitics and price swings</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>主要商品交易商自烏克蘭戰爭以來實現了最強勁的利潤</li>
<li>實體油市的失衡推動了異常的利潤率</li>
<li>每桶 20-30 美元的交易利潤報告突顯了極端的市場條件</li>
<li>霍爾木茲海峽的近乎關閉引發了對即時供應的爭奪</li>
<li>波動性依然高企，地緣政治和價格波動帶來風險</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The world’s largest commodity trading houses are generating substantial profits as the Iran war reshapes global energy markets, with extreme volatility and supply disruptions creating conditions that favour experienced physical traders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球最大的商品交易公司正在獲得可觀的利潤，因為伊朗戰爭重塑了全球能源市場，極端的波動性和供應中斷創造了有利於經驗豐富的實體交易者的條件。</p>
</div><p>Early indications suggest that 2026 could become one of the most profitable periods for the sector since the surge seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with several leading firms already reporting standout performance. Privately held trading giants, including Vitol, Trafigura, Gunvor, and Mercuria, are understood to be benefiting from sharp dislocations across oil and broader commodity markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>初步跡象表明，2026 年可能成為該行業自俄羅斯 - 烏克蘭衝突以來最盈利的時期之一，幾家領先公司已經報告了突出的業績。包括維托爾、特拉菲古拉、岡沃爾和梅爾庫里亞在內的私人交易巨頭被認為正在從油市及更廣泛的商品市場的劇烈失衡中受益。</p>
</div><p>Vitol is said to have generated around $2 billion in profit in the first quarter alone, while Trafigura has posted two of its strongest quarters on record, supported by both energy and metals trading. Gunvor has indicated that its first-quarter earnings exceeded those of the entire previous year, and Mercuria expects returns near the top end of its historical range, implying multi-billion-dollar profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>據稱，維托爾在第一季度單獨創造了約 20 億美元的利潤，而特拉菲古拉則報告了兩季度的強勁業績，得益於能源和金屬交易。岡沃爾表示，其第一季度的收益超過了前一年的總和，而梅爾庫里亞預計收益接近其歷史範圍的上限，暗示數十億美元的利潤。</p>
</div><p>The scale of profitability reflects highly unusual market conditions. The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted flows of crude and refined products, sparking a global scramble for readily available supply. This has pushed spot cargoes to significant premiums, with physical oil trades reportedly generating margins of $20 to $30 per barrel—levels far above the typical cents-per-barrel returns seen in normal market environments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盈利能力的規模反映了非常不尋常的市場條件。霍爾木茲海峽的近乎關閉擾亂了原油和成品的流動，引發了全球對現貨供應的爭奪。這使得現貨貨物的價格大幅溢價，實體油交易的利潤率據報道達到每桶 20 到 30 美元，遠高於正常市場環境下的每桶幾美分的回報。</p>
</div><p>Price spikes across the complex have underscored the extent of the disruption. Benchmarks for Middle Eastern crude surged sharply, while refined products such as jet fuel traded at extreme levels as buyers competed to secure supply. In this environment, trading houses with strong logistics networks, storage capacity and market access have been able to capture value by arbitraging regional imbalances and managing flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>複雜市場中的價格飆升突顯了擾動的程度。中東原油的基準價格急劇上漲，而噴氣燃料等成品的交易價格也處於極端水平，買家爭相確保供應。在這種環境下，擁有強大物流網絡、儲存能力和市場準入的交易公司能夠通過套利區域不平衡和管理流動來捕捉價值。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, this kind of environment is precisely where commodity traders are expected to perform. Periods of stress, fragmentation and volatility are when trading expertise, risk management and infrastructure deliver outsized returns. Failure to capitalise in such conditions would raise questions about execution, given that these firms are built to navigate precisely this type of market dislocation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，這種環境正是商品交易者被期望表現的地方。壓力、碎片化和波動性時期是交易專業知識、風險管理和基礎設施帶來超額回報的時候。在這種條件下未能獲利將引發對執行的質疑，因為這些公司正是為了應對這種市場失衡而建立的。</p>
</div><p>That said, the backdrop is not without challenges. Some firms have faced losses in derivatives positions as prices moved sharply, and disruptions to Middle Eastern supply have triggered contractual complications, including force majeure declarations. The early phase of the conflict required rapid operational adjustments as companies worked to reroute flows and secure cargoes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，背景並非沒有挑戰。一些公司在衍生品頭寸上遭遇損失，因為價格急劇波動，而中東供應的中斷引發了合同複雜性，包括不可抗力聲明。衝突的早期階段要求公司迅速調整運營，以重新安排流動和確保貨物。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, executives caution that uncertainty remains high. Oil prices continue to react sharply to geopolitical developments, including statements from US and Iranian officials, while broader macro factors also contribute to volatility. Additional gains have been supported by weather-driven demand and strength in metals markets, further boosting overall trading performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未來，管理層警告不確定性依然很高。油價繼續對地緣政治發展做出劇烈反應，包括美國和伊朗官員的聲明，同時更廣泛的宏觀因素也在加劇波動。天氣驅動的需求和金屬市場的強勁進一步支持了額外的收益，提升了整體交易表現。</p>
</div><p>Even so, the overarching narrative is clear: the Iran war has created a high-volatility, supply-constrained environment that is proving highly profitable for the world’s leading commodity traders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便如此，整體敍述是明確的：伊朗戰爭創造了一個高波動性、供應受限的環境，這對全球領先的商品交易商來説是極為盈利的。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>Strong profitability among commodity traders is a signal of extreme market dislocation rather than stability. Elevated physical premiums and arbitrage opportunities point to tight supply conditions, supporting oil prices and reinforcing inflation risks. As long as volatility and supply fragmentation persist, traders will continue to extract value, but markets remain vulnerable to sharp reversals if geopolitical conditions shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商品交易商的強勁盈利能力是極端市場失衡的信號，而非穩定。高企的實體溢價和套利機會表明供應緊張，支撐油價並加劇通脹風險。只要波動性和供應碎片化持續，交易者將繼續提取價值，但市場在地緣政治條件變化時仍然容易出現劇烈反轉。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div>

Commodity traders reap billions as Iran war drives oil market volatility (ps. its the job)

Investinglive

油氣開採 ETF - SPDR

美國油氣勘探與生產 ETF - iShares

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

博時中證油氣資源ETF

油氣服務 ETF - Market Vectors

國泰中證油氣產業ETF

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

煉油公司指數 ETF - VanEck Vectors

標普油氣設備與服務 ETF - SPDR

能源業 ETF - SPDR

美國石油設備與服務 ETF - iShares

FGX原油

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

匯添富中證油氣資源ETF

能源業 ETF - Vanguard

Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd.

商品交易商在伊朗戰爭引發油市波動時賺取數十億美元（ps. 這是他們的工作）