<p>週五，亞洲股市表現不一，投資者在油價上漲和霍爾木茲海峽緊張局勢加劇的背景下，權衡對風險資產的持續需求。</p>
<p>脆弱的中東停火協議和未解決的美伊緊張關係使交易者保持謹慎，即使華爾街近期的漲幅幫助防止了區域市場的更大回撤。</p>
<p>日本日經 225 指數上漲 0.71%，而東證指數上漲 0.30%，因日本核心通脹在五個月內首次加速，3 月份上升至 1.8%，伊朗戰爭加劇了能源擔憂。</p>
<p>韓國 Kospi 指數下跌 0.23%，而小型股 Kosdaq 指數上漲 1%。香港恒生指數下跌 0.61%，中國 CSI 300 指數下跌 0.28%。</p>
<p>在澳大利亞，S&amp;P/ASX 200 指數下跌 0.29%。</p>
<p><strong>油價和航運風險仍然受到關注</strong></p>
<p>主要的不安來源仍然是油價。</p>
<p>由於對霍爾木茲海峽這一全球最重要能源瓶頸之一的航運中斷的擔憂，原油價格上漲。</p>
<p>即使沒有全面的供應衝擊，任何長期的船舶交通中斷都可能加劇通貨膨脹，給供應鏈帶來壓力，並使增長前景複雜化。</p>
<p>這使得市場在兩種相互競爭的衝動之間保持平衡：一方面是對盈利的信心和風險偏好，另一方面是對能源、運輸成本和通貨膨脹的擔憂。</p>
<p>停火協議本身對消除這種不確定性幾乎沒有作用。</p>
<p>市場繼續將其視為暫停而非解決，油價仍然是投資者評估重新升級風險的最清晰實時指標。</p>
<p><strong>貨幣和政策前景</strong></p>
<p>貨幣市場同樣謹慎，投資者關注更高的能源價格是否開始重塑利率前景。</p>
<p>這使得人們關注中央銀行如何在通貨膨脹風險與持續的地緣政治壓力對增長的更廣泛影響之間取得平衡。</p>
<p>對於看漲的投資者來説，這創造了一個尷尬的背景。</p>
<p>原油價格的再次上漲可能會促使政策制定者更加謹慎，而任何較軟的增長信號可能會重新激發今年晚些時候採取更寬鬆政策的理由。</p>
<p><strong>投資者接下來關注的內容</strong></p>
<p>當前的重點是三個動態因素：霍爾木茲的事態發展、油價走勢以及全球股市是否能夠繼續吸收地緣政治衝擊而不要求更高的風險溢價。</p>
<p>目前，週五的混合交易表明信心仍然有限：市場並未回撤，但也不再像以前那樣輕鬆上漲。</p>

恆生指數

2 倍做空日元 ETF - ProShares

<p>亞洲股市在週五表現不一，投資者對油價上漲和霍爾木茲海峽的緊張局勢作出反應。恒生指數下跌 0.61%，而日本日經 225 指數上漲 0.71%。儘管華爾街近期有所上漲，但對能源供應中斷和通脹的擔憂使交易者保持謹慎。市場仍然不確定，風險偏好與地緣政治壓力之間的平衡，重點關注油價和霍爾木茲的最新動態</p>

<p>Asian equities were mixed on Friday as investors weighed firmer oil prices and renewed tension around the Strait of Hormuz against a still-resilient appetite for risk assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五，亞洲股市表現不一，投資者在油價上漲和霍爾木茲海峽緊張局勢加劇的背景下，權衡對風險資產的持續需求。</p>
</div><p>A fragile Middle East ceasefire and unresolved US-Iran tensions kept traders cautious, even as recent gains on Wall Street helped prevent a broader retreat in regional markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>脆弱的中東停火協議和未解決的美伊緊張關係使交易者保持謹慎，即使華爾街近期的漲幅幫助防止了區域市場的更大回撤。</p>
</div><p>Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.71%, while the Topix added 0.30% after core inflation in Japan accelerated for the first time in five months, rising to 1.8% in March, with the Iran war adding to energy concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本日經 225 指數上漲 0.71%，而東證指數上漲 0.30%，因日本核心通脹在五個月內首次加速，3 月份上升至 1.8%，伊朗戰爭加劇了能源擔憂。</p>
</div><p>South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.23%, while the small-cap Kosdaq rose 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined 0.61%, while China’s CSI 300 lost 0.28%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韓國 Kospi 指數下跌 0.23%，而小型股 Kosdaq 指數上漲 1%。香港恒生指數下跌 0.61%，中國 CSI 300 指數下跌 0.28%。</p>
</div><p>In Australia, the S&amp;P/ASX 200 was down 0.29%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在澳大利亞，S&amp;P/ASX 200 指數下跌 0.29%。</p>
</div><p><strong>Oil and shipping risks stay in focus</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>油價和航運風險仍然受到關注</strong></p>
</div><p>The main source of unease remained oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要的不安來源仍然是油價。</p>
</div><p>Crude prices climbed as concerns persisted over shipping disruption through Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於對霍爾木茲海峽這一全球最重要能源瓶頸之一的航運中斷的擔憂，原油價格上漲。</p>
</div><p>Even without a full supply shock, any prolonged disruption to vessel traffic risks feeding inflation, straining supply chains and complicating the outlook for growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使沒有全面的供應衝擊，任何長期的船舶交通中斷都可能加劇通貨膨脹，給供應鏈帶來壓力，並使增長前景複雜化。</p>
</div><p>That has left markets balancing two competing impulses: confidence in earnings and risk appetite on one side, and concern over energy, transport costs and inflation on the other.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得市場在兩種相互競爭的衝動之間保持平衡：一方面是對盈利的信心和風險偏好，另一方面是對能源、運輸成本和通貨膨脹的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>The ceasefire itself has done little to remove that uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>停火協議本身對消除這種不確定性幾乎沒有作用。</p>
</div><p>Markets continue to treat it more as a pause than a resolution, with oil still acting as the clearest real-time gauge of how seriously investors view the risk of renewed escalation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場繼續將其視為暫停而非解決，油價仍然是投資者評估重新升級風險的最清晰實時指標。</p>
</div><p><strong>Currencies and policy outlook</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>貨幣和政策前景</strong></p>
</div><p>Currency markets were similarly cautious, with investors watching whether higher energy prices begin to reshape the rate outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>貨幣市場同樣謹慎，投資者關注更高的能源價格是否開始重塑利率前景。</p>
</div><p>That keeps attention on how central banks may balance inflation risks against any broader hit to growth from sustained geopolitical stress.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得人們關注中央銀行如何在通貨膨脹風險與持續的地緣政治壓力對增長的更廣泛影響之間取得平衡。</p>
</div><p>For bullish investors, that creates an awkward backdrop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於看漲的投資者來説，這創造了一個尷尬的背景。</p>
</div><p>A renewed rise in crude could argue for more caution from policymakers, while any softer growth signals could revive the case for easier policy later in the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油價格的再次上漲可能會促使政策制定者更加謹慎，而任何較軟的增長信號可能會重新激發今年晚些時候採取更寬鬆政策的理由。</p>
</div><p><strong>What investors are watching next</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>投資者接下來關注的內容</strong></p>
</div><p>The immediate focus is on three moving parts: developments in Hormuz, the path of oil prices and whether global equities can keep absorbing geopolitical shocks without demanding a higher risk premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前的重點是三個動態因素：霍爾木茲的事態發展、油價走勢以及全球股市是否能夠繼續吸收地緣政治衝擊而不要求更高的風險溢價。</p>
</div><p>For now, Friday’s mixed trading suggests conviction remains limited: markets are not in retreat, but they are no longer pushing higher with the same ease.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，週五的混合交易表明信心仍然有限：市場並未回撤，但也不再像以前那樣輕鬆上漲。</p>
</div>

恒生指數下跌，因亞洲市場在權衡油價飆升和霍爾木茲海峽緊張局勢