<p>加拿大央行今天將隔夜利率目標維持在 2.25%，銀行利率為 2.5%，存款利率為 2.20%。</p>
<p>中東不斷演變的衝突導致了波動性加劇，而美國的貿易政策繼續重塑全球貿易格局。這兩者都是持續的不確定性來源。央行的四月展望假設關税保持不變，全球基準油價預計到 2027 年中期將降至每桶 75 美元。</p>
<p>伊朗戰爭導致能源價格急劇上漲和運輸中斷，削弱了石油進口國的增長前景，並推動全球通脹。在美國，預計在預測期內經濟增長仍將保持強勁，受益於與人工智能相關的投資和消費增長。中國經濟受到強勁出口的支持。歐元區的油氣價格上漲將對經濟活動產生壓力。</p>
<p>金融條件波動不定，反映了中東的日常動態以及市場對通脹和利率的預期變化。自一月以來，債券收益率略有上升，而在戰爭初期大幅下跌的股市已經恢復。自戰爭開始以來，美元對大多數主要貨幣升值，加元兑美元匯率相對穩定。</p>
<p>總體而言，預計全球經濟在 2026 年、2027 年和 2028 年將增長約 3%。由於能源價格的飆升，未來一年的通脹預測上調。</p>
<p>加拿大經濟增長的前景與一月的《貨幣政策報告》（MPR）預測變化不大。在 2025 年第四季度出現收縮後，預計經濟將在 2026 年初恢復增長。消費者和政府支出支持經濟活動，而關税和貿易不確定性則對出口和商業投資造成壓力。住房活動在第四季度下降，受到人口增長緩慢、經濟不確定性和持續的可負擔性問題的制約。勞動力市場疲軟，過去一年就業增長乏力，受到美國關税影響的行業出現了裁員。失業率保持在 6.5%-7% 的區間，反映出招聘疲軟和求職者減少。</p>
<p>央行四月的預測預計 2026 年 GDP 增長 1.2%，2027 年升至 1.6%，2028 年升至 1.7%，隨着出口和商業投資沿着較低的軌跡恢復增長。隨着 GDP 略高於潛在水平，經濟中的當前過剩供應正在逐漸被吸收。儘管伊朗戰爭可能改變其構成，但在更新的預測中，整體 GDP 增長變化不大：由於加拿大是一個大型淨石油出口國，較高的油價增加了國民收入，即使消費者因汽油價格上漲而受到擠壓。</p>
<p>由於汽油價格急劇上漲，3 月份 CPI 通脹攀升至 2.4%。3 月份的增長是在經歷了幾個月的通脹數據放緩之後。核心通脹有所緩解，並在最近的通脹報告中保持在略高於 2% 的水平。CPI 籃子中價格上漲超過 3% 的成分比例在最近幾個月也有所下降。如預期的那樣，目前幾乎沒有證據表明油價已經更廣泛地傳導到商品和服務價格中，但這在未來幾個月值得密切關注。短期通脹預期因汽油價格上漲和仍然高企的食品價格通脹而上升，但長期通脹預期保持穩定。</p>
<p>預計 4 月份 CPI 通脹將進一步上升至約 3%。基於油價將回落的假設，預計通脹將在明年初降至 2% 的目標，並在預測期內保持在 2% 左右。</p>
<p>在這種背景下，考慮到當前的預測，決策委員會決定將政策利率維持在 2.25%。我們正在密切關注中東衝突的影響以及經濟對美國關税和貿易政策不確定性的反應。決策委員會正在關注戰爭對通脹的直接影響，但不會讓較高的能源價格成為持續的通脹。隨着前景的發展，我們隨時準備根據需要作出反應。央行致力於在這一全球動盪時期維護加拿大人對價格穩定的信心。</p>

<p>加拿大銀行維持隔夜利率在 2.25%，理由是全球不確定性持續，特別是由於中東衝突和美國貿易政策。展望預測 2026 年 GDP 增長為 1.2%，預計通脹將在 4 月上升至 3%，然後在明年穩定在 2% 的目標附近。銀行正在密切關注這些因素對經濟的影響，並準備根據需要調整政策，以確保加拿大人的價格穩定</p>

<p>The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加拿大央行今天將隔夜利率目標維持在 2.25%，銀行利率為 2.5%，存款利率為 2.20%。</p>
</div><p>The evolving conflict in the Middle East is causing heightened volatility and US trade policy continues to reshape global trade patterns. Both are ongoing sources of uncertainty. The Bank’s April outlook assumes tariffs remain unchanged and the global benchmark price of oil declines to US$75 per barrel by mid 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中東不斷演變的衝突導致了波動性加劇，而美國的貿易政策繼續重塑全球貿易格局。這兩者都是持續的不確定性來源。央行的四月展望假設關税保持不變，全球基準油價預計到 2027 年中期將降至每桶 75 美元。</p>
</div><p>The Iran war has led to sharply higher energy prices and transportation disruptions, diminishing growth prospects in oil-importing countries and boosting inflation worldwide. In the United States, growth is still expected to be solid over the projection horizon, boosted by AI-related investment and consumption growth. China’s economy is being supported by robust exports. In the euro area, higher prices for oil and natural gas will weigh on economic activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗戰爭導致能源價格急劇上漲和運輸中斷，削弱了石油進口國的增長前景，並推動全球通脹。在美國，預計在預測期內經濟增長仍將保持強勁，受益於與人工智能相關的投資和消費增長。中國經濟受到強勁出口的支持。歐元區的油氣價格上漲將對經濟活動產生壓力。</p>
</div><p>Financial conditions have been volatile, reflecting daily developments in the Middle East and shifting market expectations for inflation and interest rates. Bond yields are modestly higher since January while equity markets, which weakened sharply at the outset of the war, have recovered. Since the start of the war, the US dollar has appreciated against most major currencies. The Canada-US exchange rate has been relatively stable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融條件波動不定，反映了中東的日常動態以及市場對通脹和利率的預期變化。自一月以來，債券收益率略有上升，而在戰爭初期大幅下跌的股市已經恢復。自戰爭開始以來，美元對大多數主要貨幣升值，加元兑美元匯率相對穩定。</p>
</div><p>Overall, the global economy is expected to grow by about 3% in 2026, 2027 and 2028. Projections for inflation over the next year are revised up because of the jump in energy prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，預計全球經濟在 2026 年、2027 年和 2028 年將增長約 3%。由於能源價格的飆升，未來一年的通脹預測上調。</p>
</div><p>The outlook for economic growth in Canada is little changed from the January <em>Monetary Policy Report</em> (MPR) projection. After a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2025, growth is forecast to have resumed in early 2026. Consumer and government spending are supporting economic activity, while tariffs and trade uncertainty are weighing on exports and business investment. Housing activity declined in the fourth quarter and is being held back by slow population growth, economic uncertainty and ongoing affordability issues. The labour market is soft, with subdued employment growth over the past year and job losses in sectors targeted by US tariffs. The unemployment rate remains in the 6½%‑7% range, reflecting both weak hiring and fewer job seekers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加拿大經濟增長的前景與一月的《貨幣政策報告》（MPR）預測變化不大。在 2025 年第四季度出現收縮後，預計經濟將在 2026 年初恢復增長。消費者和政府支出支持經濟活動，而關税和貿易不確定性則對出口和商業投資造成壓力。住房活動在第四季度下降，受到人口增長緩慢、經濟不確定性和持續的可負擔性問題的制約。勞動力市場疲軟，過去一年就業增長乏力，受到美國關税影響的行業出現了裁員。失業率保持在 6.5%-7% 的區間，反映出招聘疲軟和求職者減少。</p>
</div><p>The Bank’s April forecast projects GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026, rising to 1.6% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028 as growth in exports and business investment resumes along a lower trajectory. With GDP growing slightly above potential, the current excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed. While the war in Iran may alter its composition, overall GDP growth is little changed in the updated forecast: Since Canada is a large net exporter of oil, higher oil prices increase national income even as consumers are squeezed by higher gasoline prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>央行四月的預測預計 2026 年 GDP 增長 1.2%，2027 年升至 1.6%，2028 年升至 1.7%，隨着出口和商業投資沿着較低的軌跡恢復增長。隨着 GDP 略高於潛在水平，經濟中的當前過剩供應正在逐漸被吸收。儘管伊朗戰爭可能改變其構成，但在更新的預測中，整體 GDP 增長變化不大：由於加拿大是一個大型淨石油出口國，較高的油價增加了國民收入，即使消費者因汽油價格上漲而受到擠壓。</p>
</div><p>CPI inflation climbed to 2.4% in March because of sharply higher gasoline prices. The March increase follows several months of slowing inflation data. Core inflation has been easing and held steady at just above 2% in the most recent inflation report. The proportion of components of the CPI basket rising above 3% has also declined in recent months. As expected, so far there is little evidence that oil prices have fed through more broadly to goods and services prices, but this warrants close attention in the months ahead. Near-term inflation expectations have moved up with higher gasoline prices and still-elevated food price inflation, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained anchored.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於汽油價格急劇上漲，3 月份 CPI 通脹攀升至 2.4%。3 月份的增長是在經歷了幾個月的通脹數據放緩之後。核心通脹有所緩解，並在最近的通脹報告中保持在略高於 2% 的水平。CPI 籃子中價格上漲超過 3% 的成分比例在最近幾個月也有所下降。如預期的那樣，目前幾乎沒有證據表明油價已經更廣泛地傳導到商品和服務價格中，但這在未來幾個月值得密切關注。短期通脹預期因汽油價格上漲和仍然高企的食品價格通脹而上升，但長期通脹預期保持穩定。</p>
</div><p>CPI inflation will likely rise further in April to about 3%. Based on the assumption that oil prices will ease, inflation is forecast to come down to the 2% target early next year and remain around 2% over the projection horizon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計 4 月份 CPI 通脹將進一步上升至約 3%。基於油價將回落的假設，預計通脹將在明年初降至 2% 的目標，並在預測期內保持在 2% 左右。</p>
</div><p>Against this backdrop and taking into account the current projection, Governing Council decided to maintain the policy rate at 2.25%. We are closely monitoring the impact of the conflict in the Middle East and how the economy is responding to US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. Governing Council is looking through the war’s immediate impact on inflation but will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation. As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed. The Bank is committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種背景下，考慮到當前的預測，決策委員會決定將政策利率維持在 2.25%。我們正在密切關注中東衝突的影響以及經濟對美國關税和貿易政策不確定性的反應。決策委員會正在關注戰爭對通脹的直接影響，但不會讓較高的能源價格成為持續的通脹。隨着前景的發展，我們隨時準備根據需要作出反應。央行致力於在這一全球動盪時期維護加拿大人對價格穩定的信心。</p>
</div>

Bank of Canada statement from the April 2026 rate decision

- 加拿大央行將利率維持在 2.25% 以應對不確定性。  
- 中東衝突導致全球經濟波動，油價上漲影響了通脹預期。  
- 預計 2026 年 GDP 增長 1.2%，長期通脹將穩定在 2% 左右。

加拿大央行 2026 年 4 月利率決議聲明