<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/OPEC-and-UAE-flags.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/OPEC-and-UAE-flags.jpg"/></p>
<p>阿聯酋意外退出 OPEC 標誌着全球能源政治的一個轉折點，表明從卡特爾紀律向市場驅動戰略的轉變，即使霍爾木茲海峽仍因戰爭干擾而受到阻礙。</p>
<p>這一舉動結束了近六十年的成員資格，移除了卡特爾的第三大生產國，標誌着 OPEC 歷史上最具影響力的退出之一。</p>
<p>在與 <strong><em>Invezz</em></strong> 的獨家對話中，<strong><em>Maleeha Bengali</em></strong>，MB Commodities Capital 的創始人兼投資組合經理，以及 MB Commodity Corner 的作者，解釋了阿聯酋為何要打破沙特主導的生產限制，這一時機如何與地區衝突交織在一起，以及這對油價、OPEC 的凝聚力和全球能源市場的未來意味着什麼。</p>
<p>Bengali 告訴 Invezz，阿聯酋的退出將削弱 OPEC+ 對油市的影響，因為阿聯酋希望最大化石油收入。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/MaleehaBengali.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/MaleehaBengali.png"/></p>
<p>以下是編輯過的摘錄；</p>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 阿聯酋退出 OPEC 究竟傳達了其長期能源戰略的什麼信號？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 它希望最大化石油收入，而不是遵循 OPEC 強制的限產結構，這主要由沙特阿拉伯管理。</p>
<p>這兩個國家在擴張計劃後的財政盈虧平衡油價上存在差異。</p>
<p>此外，阿聯酋因戰爭受到的影響更大，因此希望儘可能彌補這一損失。</p>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 這一決定的時機有多重要，恰逢霍爾木茲海峽的持續干擾？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 這不會立即影響價格，但它正在為一旦海峽開放或戰爭平息後儘可能多地增產做好準備。</p>
<p>此外，他們在地區聯盟方面也存在日益明顯的差異（巴基斯坦/埃及/土耳其/伊朗）與阿聯酋相比，後者與以色列和美國關係更為密切。</p>
<p>隨着戰爭的持續，局勢在變化，因此這一決定是相輔相成的。它開始為自己思考。</p>
<h2>OPEC 的影響力減弱</h2>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 阿聯酋的退出會在短期內還是長期內削弱 OPEC+ 的凝聚力？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 阿聯酋的退出將削弱 OPEC 未來的影響力，因為阿聯酋和沙特阿拉伯是兩個擁有最高剩餘產能的成員，因此可以減少或增加生產以維持他們所希望的價格水平。</p>
<p>阿聯酋的石油生產能力高達每天 500 萬桶。然而，其產量受到 OPEC 既定配額限制的約束。</p>
<p>一旦石油流動穩定，或阿聯酋成功通過替代管道重新引導石油流動，它將不再受 OPEC 配額的限制。</p>
<p>沙特阿拉伯將成為該集團的主要成員，因為即使是俄羅斯也希望儘可能多地增產，因為他們需要價格高於 75 美元/桶來資助對烏克蘭的戰爭。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>該集團的其他成員規模太小，無法產生影響，但他們將廣泛跟隨沙特阿拉伯，但 OPEC 作為一個整體及其影響力將越來越小。未來將更多地關注市場份額，如果阿聯酋隨意增產，沙特阿拉伯將不會減產以維持更高的價格。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>這肯定會削弱 OPEC 的凝聚力，因為現在主要是沙特阿拉伯擁有最多的剩餘產能——阿聯酋也曾有剩餘產能。</p>
<h2>生產與價格影響</h2>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 現在阿聯酋不再受配額限制，實際上可以向市場增產多少石油？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 阿聯酋的石油生產已從戰前的約 380 萬桶/天降至 220 萬桶/天，現在受到 OPEC+ 配額約 300 萬桶/天的限制，儘管其生產能力約為 500 萬桶/天。</p>
<p>該國正在探索增加出口的替代方案。</p>
<p>目前，重新引導的管道最多可處理 180 萬桶/天，但阿聯酋正在開發一條新管道以擴大其出口能力。</p>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 這一舉動主要是出於經濟原因、地緣政治原因還是兩者兼而有之？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 經濟是一個重要因素。在地緣政治上，阿聯酋在這場伊朗戰爭期間與美國/以色列的關係更加緊密；他們在過去幾年在索馬里/蘇丹的政策以及與沙特阿拉伯的分歧非常明顯。</p>
<p>但它一直在聽從沙特阿拉伯的意見。自 2020 年簽署亞伯拉罕協議以來，這改變了阿聯酋及其在該地區成為更大參與者的願望。</p>
<p>沙特阿拉伯與阿聯酋之間的潛在競爭往往被忽視，因為中東通常被視為一個統一的實體。</p>
<p>目前，戰後局勢，特別是他們與伊朗和巴基斯坦等國的不同聯盟，進一步推動了他們的分歧。</p>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 這將對未來幾個月的全球油價產生什麼影響？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 如果我們達成停火，價格將在 80-85 美元/桶的範圍內。</p>
<p>這需要時間才能恢復，但一切都取決於美國和以色列是否決定再次攻擊伊朗並摧毀其基礎設施。</p>
<p>這是一個動態的局勢，日新月異。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>但從長遠來看，我不認為石油會成為問題，因為流動正在尋找替代路線。一旦局勢正常化，價格將回到 65-70 美元/桶的範圍。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>阿聯酋舉動的後果</h2>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 其他 OPEC 成員應該如何回應阿聯酋的決定？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 目前的每個 OPEC 成員可能會遵循自己的政策，因為他們沒有沙特阿拉伯或阿聯酋那麼大。</p>
<p>生產能力更高的國家，如伊朗或委內瑞拉（其行動目前受到美國的影響），可能會尋求增加產量。</p>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 這一決定會加強還是削弱阿聯酋在全球能源市場的影響力？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 現在阿聯酋將基於純經濟因素進行生產和抽油，這意味着石油市場將根據供需自由波動，而不是受到價格控制。</p>
<p>因此，他們的市場份額將更高，因為他們將在高價時抽取更多石油，反之亦然。</p>
<h2>風險與機遇</h2>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 阿聯酋在退出 OPEC 後面臨的最大風險和機遇是什麼？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 最大的風險是它與以色列和美國緊密結盟，而與其最接近的鄰國伊朗對立。</p>
<p>因此，防禦對他們來説至關重要，但對於未來的衝突也是如此。</p>
<p>他們的機遇在於成為更大的參與者，並在非洲和全球舞台上更積極地參與擴張政策，與美國和以色列保持一致。</p>
<p>此外，這將改變外籍人士對阿聯酋作為商業場所的看法，因為將需要嚴格的財務控制和形象重建。</p>
<p>他們會做得很好，但構成會改變，風險溢價也會變化。阿聯酋將不再是默認的安全避風港。</p>
<p>我們已經看到資金流向香港和新加坡，例如，投資者有其他選擇。</p>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 最後，哪些石油消費國可能會受益於阿聯酋退出 OPEC？</p>
<p>展望未來，價格將基於真實的供需，而不是因生產限制而人為壓制。</p>
<p>在戰爭之前，油價本就過高，儘管有大量的閒置產能。</p>
<p>我們曾主張，在 COVID-19 之後，以及伊朗戰爭之前，油價的真實水平應該在每桶 50-60 美元，但 OPEC 故意將每日 1000 萬桶的石油生產壓制了比必要的時間更長，隨後沙特阿拉伯又自願減產三年，才最終提高產量。</p>
<p>我認為，如果他們讓供應保持現狀，石油市場會更早找到平衡，需求也能更好地恢復。</p>
<p>但 OPEC 一直在壓制生產，因為他們太害怕讓價格下跌。</p>
<p>短期的痛苦換取長期的收益更好，但他們已經投資了太多，需要石油美元來支付他們的計劃。</p>
<p>在短期內，各國並沒有受益，因為供應出現了中斷，但隨着時間的推移，他們將會在市場份額上更加自由。</p>
<p>採訪後記：MB Commodities 的 Maleeha Bengali 談阿聯酋為何剛剛退出 OPEC，首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

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<p>阿聯酋退出石油輸出國組織（OPEC）標誌着全球能源政治的重大轉變，結束了近六十年的成員身份，並移除了該卡特爾的第三大生產國。在一次採訪中，MB Commodities 的 Maleeha Bengali 解釋道，阿聯酋的目標是最大化石油收入，而不是遵循沙特主導的生產限制，尤其是在持續的地區衝突背景下。這一退出預計將削弱 OPEC 的影響力，因為阿聯酋計劃將產量提高到超過之前的配額，從而影響油價和市場動態</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/OPEC-and-UAE-flags.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/OPEC-and-UAE-flags.jpg"/></p>
<p>The United Arab Emirates’ surprise exit from OPEC marked a turning point in global energy politics, signalling a shift from cartel discipline to a market-driven strategy, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains choked by war disruptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿聯酋意外退出 OPEC 標誌着全球能源政治的一個轉折點，表明從卡特爾紀律向市場驅動戰略的轉變，即使霍爾木茲海峽仍因戰爭干擾而受到阻礙。</p>
</div><p>The move ended nearly six decades of membership and removed the cartel's third-largest producer, marking one of the most consequential departures in OPEC's history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一舉動結束了近六十年的成員資格，移除了卡特爾的第三大生產國，標誌着 OPEC 歷史上最具影響力的退出之一。</p>
</div><p>In an exclusive conversation with <strong><em>Invezz</em></strong>, <strong><em>Maleeha Bengali</em></strong>, founder and portfolio manager at MB Commodities Capital and author of MB Commodity Corner, explains why the UAE is breaking away from Saudi-led production limits, how the timing intersects with regional conflict, and what this means for oil prices, OPEC’s cohesion, and the future of global energy markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在與 <strong><em>Invezz</em></strong> 的獨家對話中，<strong><em>Maleeha Bengali</em></strong>，MB Commodities Capital 的創始人兼投資組合經理，以及 MB Commodity Corner 的作者，解釋了阿聯酋為何要打破沙特主導的生產限制，這一時機如何與地區衝突交織在一起，以及這對油價、OPEC 的凝聚力和全球能源市場的未來意味着什麼。</p>
</div><p>Bengali told Invezz that the departure will weaken OPEC+ influence on the oil market as the UAE looks to maximise oil revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Bengali 告訴 Invezz，阿聯酋的退出將削弱 OPEC+ 對油市的影響，因為阿聯酋希望最大化石油收入。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/MaleehaBengali.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/MaleehaBengali.png"/></p>
<p>Below are edited excerpts;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是編輯過的摘錄；</p>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> What does the UAE’s exit from OPEC really signal about its long-term energy strategy?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 阿聯酋退出 OPEC 究竟傳達了其長期能源戰略的什麼信號？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> It is looking to maximise oil revenue rather than adhere to an OPEC forced limit structure, which is mostly managed by Saudi Arabia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 它希望最大化石油收入，而不是遵循 OPEC 強制的限產結構，這主要由沙特阿拉伯管理。</p>
</div><p>The two countries have different fiscal breakeven oil prices post-expansion plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這兩個國家在擴張計劃後的財政盈虧平衡油價上存在差異。</p>
</div><p>Also, the UAE has been hit more because of the war, so it is looking to make up for that as much as it can.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，阿聯酋因戰爭受到的影響更大，因此希望儘可能彌補這一損失。</p>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> How significant is the timing of this decision, coming amid the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 這一決定的時機有多重要，恰逢霍爾木茲海峽的持續干擾？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> It is not going to impact prices today, but it is setting itself up to pump as much as it can, free for all markets once the Strait opens or war settles down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 這不會立即影響價格，但它正在為一旦海峽開放或戰爭平息後儘可能多地增產做好準備。</p>
</div><p>Also, there has been a growing difference in their regional alliances too (Pakistan/Egypt/Turkey/Iran) vs the UAE, which is more allied with Israel and the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，他們在地區聯盟方面也存在日益明顯的差異（巴基斯坦/埃及/土耳其/伊朗）與阿聯酋相比，後者與以色列和美國關係更為密切。</p>
</div><p>As the war drags on, the map is changing, so the decision comes hand in hand. It is starting to think for itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着戰爭的持續，局勢在變化，因此這一決定是相輔相成的。它開始為自己思考。</p>
</div><h2>OPEC’s influence weaken</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>OPEC 的影響力減弱</h2>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> Will the UAE’s departure weaken OPEC+ cohesion in the short term or long term?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 阿聯酋的退出會在短期內還是長期內削弱 OPEC+ 的凝聚力？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> UAE's departure will weaken the influence of OPEC going forward, as the UAE and Saudi Arabia were the two members with the highest spare capacity and could hence reduce or increase production to maintain the level of prices they desired.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 阿聯酋的退出將削弱 OPEC 未來的影響力，因為阿聯酋和沙特阿拉伯是兩個擁有最高剩餘產能的成員，因此可以減少或增加生產以維持他們所希望的價格水平。</p>
</div><p>The UAE possesses an oil production capacity of up to 5 million barrels per day. However, its output has been constrained by OPEC's established quota limits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿聯酋的石油生產能力高達每天 500 萬桶。然而，其產量受到 OPEC 既定配額限制的約束。</p>
</div><p>Once the oil flow stabilises or the UAE successfully reroutes it through an alternative pipeline, it will no longer be restricted by the OPEC quotas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一旦石油流動穩定，或阿聯酋成功通過替代管道重新引導石油流動，它將不再受 OPEC 配額的限制。</p>
</div><p>Saudi Arabia will be the majority member in the group, as even Russia is looking to pump as much as it can, as they need prices above $75/bbl to fund their war against Ukraine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沙特阿拉伯將成為該集團的主要成員，因為即使是俄羅斯也希望儘可能多地增產，因為他們需要價格高於 75 美元/桶來資助對烏克蘭的戰爭。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>The other members in the group are too small to make an impact but they will widely follow Saudi Arabia, but OPEC as a group and its influence will be less and less going forward. It will be more about market share and Saudi Arabia will not be cutting production to maintain higher prices if UAE is pumping at will.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>該集團的其他成員規模太小，無法產生影響，但他們將廣泛跟隨沙特阿拉伯，但 OPEC 作為一個整體及其影響力將越來越小。未來將更多地關注市場份額，如果阿聯酋隨意增產，沙特阿拉伯將不會減產以維持更高的價格。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>It will definitely weaken OPEC’s cohesion, as it is now mostly Saudi Arabia that has the most spare capacity – the UAE had spare capacity too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這肯定會削弱 OPEC 的凝聚力，因為現在主要是沙特阿拉伯擁有最多的剩餘產能——阿聯酋也曾有剩餘產能。</p>
</div><h2>Production and impact on prices</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>生產與價格影響</h2>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> How much additional oil can the UAE realistically bring to the market now that it is no longer bound by quotas?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 現在阿聯酋不再受配額限制，實際上可以向市場增產多少石油？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> The UAE's oil production, which had dropped to 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from a pre-war level of approximately 3.8 million bpd, is now limited by its OPEC+ quota of around 3 million bpd, despite having a production capacity of about 5 million bpd.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 阿聯酋的石油生產已從戰前的約 380 萬桶/天降至 220 萬桶/天，現在受到 OPEC+ 配額約 300 萬桶/天的限制，儘管其生產能力約為 500 萬桶/天。</p>
</div><p>The country is exploring alternative options for increasing exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該國正在探索增加出口的替代方案。</p>
</div><p>Currently, the rerouted pipeline can handle a maximum of 1.8 million bpd, but the UAE is developing a new pipeline to expand its export capability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，重新引導的管道最多可處理 180 萬桶/天，但阿聯酋正在開發一條新管道以擴大其出口能力。</p>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> Is this move primarily driven by economics, geopolitics or both?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 這一舉動主要是出於經濟原因、地緣政治原因還是兩者兼而有之？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> Economics is a big factor. Geopolitically, the UAE has been aligned more with the US/Israel during this Iran war; their policies over the past few years in Somalia/Sudan and their disagreements with Saudi Arabia were quite apparent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 經濟是一個重要因素。在地緣政治上，阿聯酋在這場伊朗戰爭期間與美國/以色列的關係更加緊密；他們在過去幾年在索馬里/蘇丹的政策以及與沙特阿拉伯的分歧非常明顯。</p>
</div><p>But it had always listened to Saudi Arabia. Since the Abraham Accords signing in 2020, this has changed the UAE and its desire to be a bigger player in the region.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但它一直在聽從沙特阿拉伯的意見。自 2020 年簽署亞伯拉罕協議以來，這改變了阿聯酋及其在該地區成為更大參與者的願望。</p>
</div><p>The underlying competition between Saudi Arabia and the UAE often went unnoticed because the Middle East was typically viewed as a unified entity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沙特阿拉伯與阿聯酋之間的潛在競爭往往被忽視，因為中東通常被視為一個統一的實體。</p>
</div><p>Currently, the post-war landscape, particularly their differing alliances with countries like Iran and Pakistan, is further driving them apart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，戰後局勢，特別是他們與伊朗和巴基斯坦等國的不同聯盟，進一步推動了他們的分歧。</p>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> What impact will this have on global oil prices in the coming months?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 這將對未來幾個月的全球油價產生什麼影響？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> If we get a ceasefire, prices will be in the range of $80-$85/bbl.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 如果我們達成停火，價格將在 80-85 美元/桶的範圍內。</p>
</div><p>That will take time to come back, but it all depends on whether the US and Israel decide to attack Iran again and take out its infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這需要時間才能恢復，但一切都取決於美國和以色列是否決定再次攻擊伊朗並摧毀其基礎設施。</p>
</div><p>It is a dynamic situation that is changing day by day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一個動態的局勢，日新月異。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>But longer term, I do not see oil being an issue as flows are making their ways and finding alternate routes. Long term, once things normalise, prices would be back in the $65-$70/bbl range.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>但從長遠來看，我不認為石油會成為問題，因為流動正在尋找替代路線。一旦局勢正常化，價格將回到 65-70 美元/桶的範圍。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Fallout from UAE move</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿聯酋舉動的後果</h2>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> How should other OPEC members respond to the UAE’s decision?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 其他 OPEC 成員應該如何回應阿聯酋的決定？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> Each of the current OPEC members is likely to follow its own policy, as they are not as big as, Saudi Arabia or the UAE.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 目前的每個 OPEC 成員可能會遵循自己的政策，因為他們沒有沙特阿拉伯或阿聯酋那麼大。</p>
</div><p>Countries with higher production capacity, such as Iran or Venezuela (whose actions are currently influenced by the US), will likely seek to increase their output.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>生產能力更高的國家，如伊朗或委內瑞拉（其行動目前受到美國的影響），可能會尋求增加產量。</p>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> Will this decision strengthen or weaken the UAE’s influence in global energy markets?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 這一決定會加強還是削弱阿聯酋在全球能源市場的影響力？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> Now that the UAE will produce and pump based on pure economics, it means the oil market will be free to move based on demand/supply and not be price controlled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 現在阿聯酋將基於純經濟因素進行生產和抽油，這意味着石油市場將根據供需自由波動，而不是受到價格控制。</p>
</div><p>So their market share will be higher as they will pump more at higher prices and vice versa.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，他們的市場份額將更高，因為他們將在高價時抽取更多石油，反之亦然。</p>
</div><h2>Risks and opportunities</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>風險與機遇</h2>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> What are the biggest risks and opportunities for the UAE after leaving OPEC?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 阿聯酋在退出 OPEC 後面臨的最大風險和機遇是什麼？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> The biggest risk is that it is firmly aligned with Israel and the United States and against Iran, its closest neighbour.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 最大的風險是它與以色列和美國緊密結盟，而與其最接近的鄰國伊朗對立。</p>
</div><p>So defense is critical for them now, but also for future conflicts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，防禦對他們來説至關重要，但對於未來的衝突也是如此。</p>
</div><p>Their opportunities are being a bigger player and more involved in expansionist policies in Africa and on the world stage, aligned with the US and Israel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他們的機遇在於成為更大的參與者，並在非洲和全球舞台上更積極地參與擴張政策，與美國和以色列保持一致。</p>
</div><p>Also, this will change the way expats view the UAE as a place to do business, given the strict financial controls and image rebuilding that will be required.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，這將改變外籍人士對阿聯酋作為商業場所的看法，因為將需要嚴格的財務控制和形象重建。</p>
</div><p>They will do well, but the mix will change, and the risk premium as well. The UAE will no longer be a safe haven by default.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他們會做得很好，但構成會改變，風險溢價也會變化。阿聯酋將不再是默認的安全避風港。</p>
</div><p>We're already seeing money moving to Hong Kong and Singapore, for example, as investors have other choices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們已經看到資金流向香港和新加坡，例如，投資者有其他選擇。</p>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> Finally, which are the oil-consuming countries that might benefit from the UAE’s departure from OPEC?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 最後，哪些石油消費國可能會受益於阿聯酋退出 OPEC？</p>
</div><p>Going forward, prices will be based on real demand and supply and not artificially held back due to production curbs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未來，價格將基於真實的供需，而不是因生產限制而人為壓制。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices were too high prior to the war to begin with, despite all the spare capacity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在戰爭之前，油價本就過高，儘管有大量的閒置產能。</p>
</div><p>We have argued that post COVID-19, and before the Iran war, the real price of oil should have been about $50-$60/bbl, but OPEC deliberately held back 10 million barrels per day of oil for a lot longer than needed, and then Saudi Arabia did extra voluntary cuts for an additional three years before raising production finally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們曾主張，在 COVID-19 之後，以及伊朗戰爭之前，油價的真實水平應該在每桶 50-60 美元，但 OPEC 故意將每日 1000 萬桶的石油生產壓制了比必要的時間更長，隨後沙特阿拉伯又自願減產三年，才最終提高產量。</p>
</div><p>I have argued that if they let the supply be as it is, the oil market would have found balance a lot earlier, and demand would have been able to recover better.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為，如果他們讓供應保持現狀，石油市場會更早找到平衡，需求也能更好地恢復。</p>
</div><p>But OPEC kept holding back production as they were too scared to let prices fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 OPEC 一直在壓制生產，因為他們太害怕讓價格下跌。</p>
</div><p>Short term pain for long term gain is better, but they have invested too much and need oil dollars to pay for their plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期的痛苦換取長期的收益更好，但他們已經投資了太多，需要石油美元來支付他們的計劃。</p>
</div><p>Near term, countries are not benefiting as there is a supply outage, but over time they will be more free for all market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短期內，各國並沒有受益，因為供應出現了中斷，但隨着時間的推移，他們將會在市場份額上更加自由。</p>
</div><p>The post Interview: MB Commodities' Maleeha Bengali on why UAE just walked out on OPEC appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>採訪後記：MB Commodities 的 Maleeha Bengali 談阿聯酋為何剛剛退出 OPEC，首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

Interview: MB Commodities' Maleeha Bengali on why UAE just walked out on OPEC

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採訪：MB Commodities 的 Maleeha Bengali 談論阿聯酋為何剛剛退出 OPEC