<p>外匯期貨頭寸顯示出美元、日元和加元的格局正在發生變化，大型投機者和資產管理者的頭寸都有顯著變化。最新的 COT 報告強調了美元敞口的下降，日元空頭在懷疑干預後迅速平倉，以及加元頭寸可能的轉折點。</p>
<p>儘管美元指數仍然承壓，但頭寸顯示下行空間可能有限。同時，交易者正在重新評估對 USD/CAD 的看漲押注，並減少對日元的看跌敞口，為近期外匯方向提供新的線索。</p>
<p><strong>查看相關分析：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>外匯期貨頭寸：美元、USD/JPY、GBP/USD、AUD/USD | COT 報告</li>
<li>AUD/USD、NZD/USD 延續漲勢，儘管 AUD/NZD 閃現反轉風險</li>
<li>USD/JPY 因日元因再次懷疑干預而暴跌至 158</li>
<li>美元前景：看漲的季節性與波動風險相遇</li>
</ul>
<h2>COT 報告分析：美元指數、USD/JPY 和 USD/CAD 期貨頭寸</h2>
<h3>COT 報告中的大型投機者頭寸</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122741-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122741-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：CFTC (COT), CME, ICE, LSEG</em></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>美元：</strong> 上週整體期貨敞口下降了 47 億美元，降至 62 億美元。</li>
<li><strong>EUR/USD：</strong> 大型投機者和資產管理者的淨多歐元頭寸減少了 9000 份合約，主要是由於增加了空頭。</li>
<li><strong>GBP/USD：</strong> 兩組的淨空頭增加了 12000 份合約，空頭增加而多頭減少。</li>
<li><strong>USD/JPY：</strong> 懷疑的財政部干預促使交易者將淨空日元敞口減少了 56300 份合約。</li>
<li><strong>USD/CHF：</strong> 瑞士法郎的淨多頭增加了 12700 份合約，而空頭基本保持不變。</li>
<li><strong>USD/CAD：</strong> 對多頭的強勁需求使得對加元期貨的淨敞口減少了 37600 份合約。</li>
<li><strong>AUD/USD：</strong> 大型投機者將淨多頭增加了 6800 份合約，接近 13 年來的高點。</li>
<li><strong>NZD/USD：</strong> 資產管理者將淨空頭推高至 15 周高點，增加了 1500 份合約。</li>
</ul>
<h3>資產管理者頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122847-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122847-2.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：CFTC (COT), CME, ICE, LSEG</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h2>外匯期貨頭寸 | COT 報告 (IMM 數據)</h2>
<h3>美元指數 (DXY) 期貨頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
<p>美元自 3 月底以來下跌約 3%，市場自 11 月以來多次未能有效維持在 100 以上。過去六週中有五週收盤下跌，儘管看跌動能似乎正在減弱。由於美國和伊朗之間的協議沒有進展，美元的下行潛力可能有限，而上行壓力開始積聚。</p>
<p>通過期貨對美元的整體敞口上週下降了 47 億美元，降至 62 億美元。然而，相對於 2 月份的低點，它仍然處於較高水平，且距離 4 月份的高點並不遠。從這個角度來看，美元指數可能相對於整體頭寸顯得被低估。</p>
<p>此外，資產管理者的淨多頭敞口增加了 2600 份合約，達到 10800 份合約，自 3 月初以來一直保持淨多頭。考慮到這一羣體通常比大型投機者更具前瞻性，我傾向於忽視後者上週接近轉為淨空頭的事實。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511123439-2.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511123439-2.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>來源：ICE, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
<h3>USD/JPY 期貨頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
<p>由於懷疑的財政部干預，日元的看跌波動性激增，迫使看跌押注退出其頭寸。大型投機者減少了 37800 份空頭——這是自 2024 年 8 月以來最快的周降幅。多頭僅增加了 2500 份，顯示出在波動時期的謹慎。資產管理者將其空頭敞口減少了 13300 份合約——這是自 2024 年 12 月以來最快的周降幅。同樣，多頭僅略微增加了 2600 份合約。</p>
<p>我在干預分析報告中提到，財政部的前幾輪干預通常與 USD/JPY 的多月高點和百分比上的雙位數下降相吻合。這使得 USD/JPY 目前在我的 ‘逢高做空’ 觀察名單中。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122956-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122956-4.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：CME, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h3>USD/CAD 期貨頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
<p>大型投機者的淨空頭敞口減少了 23800 份，標誌着 14 周以來最快的周變化，淨空頭僅為 14700 份合約。然而，週五疲弱的加拿大就業數據和更廣泛的加元疲軟表明，這可能是投機者時機不當的舉動。</p>
<p>此外，資產管理者可能也在質疑他們增加淨多頭敞口 13000 份合約的決定，使頭寸升至六週高點的 20800 份合約。</p>
<p>隨着 USD/CAD 結束四周的下跌，加元期貨暗示每週圖表上可能出現的反轉高點，我們可能會在接下來的一週看到看漲押注的反轉。</p>
<p>CFTC COT 報告圖表顯示 USD/CAD 期貨頭寸，大型投機者的淨空頭減少，資產管理者的多頭增加，價格暗示可能的反轉。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511123515-1.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511123515-1.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>來源：CME, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
<p>查看完整的_經濟日曆_</p>
<p>-- 作者：Matt Simpson</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上關注 Matt @cLeverEdge</p>

德銀美元指數 做空 - PowerShares

彭博美元指數 做多 - WisdomTree

日元指數 ETF - CurrencyShares

加元 做多 - CurrencyShares

2 倍做空日元 ETF - ProShares

德銀美元指數 做多 - PowerShares

2 倍做多日圓 ETF - ProShares

<p>最新的 COT 報告顯示，美元、日元和加元的外匯期貨頭寸發生了顯著變化。美元的敞口減少，而在懷疑干預後，日元的空頭頭寸顯著減少。加元的頭寸顯示出潛在的變化，因為交易者正在重新評估他們的策略。儘管美元指數面臨壓力，但報告表明下行潛力有限。此外，交易者正在調整對美元/加元和日元的頭寸，表明市場動態正在演變</p>

<p>FX futures positioning reveals a shifting landscape for the US dollar, yen and Canadian dollar, with notable changes across large speculators and asset managers. The latest COT report highlights falling USD exposure, a sharp unwind of yen shorts following suspected intervention, and a potential turning point for CAD positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外匯期貨頭寸顯示出美元、日元和加元的格局正在發生變化，大型投機者和資產管理者的頭寸都有顯著變化。最新的 COT 報告強調了美元敞口的下降，日元空頭在懷疑干預後迅速平倉，以及加元頭寸可能的轉折點。</p>
</div><p>While the US dollar index remains under pressure, positioning suggests downside may be limited. At the same time, traders are reassessing bullish bets on USD/CAD and reducing bearish exposure to the yen, offering fresh clues for near-term FX direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管美元指數仍然承壓，但頭寸顯示下行空間可能有限。同時，交易者正在重新評估對 USD/CAD 的看漲押注，並減少對日元的看跌敞口，為近期外匯方向提供新的線索。</p>
</div><p><strong>View related analysis:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看相關分析：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>FX Futures Positioning: USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD | COT Report</li>
<li>AUD/USD, NZD/USD Extend Gains, Though AUD/NZD Flashes Reversal Risk</li>
<li>USD/JPY Plunges from 158 as Yen Surges on Another Suspected Intervention</li>
<li>US Dollar Outlook: Bullish May Seasonality Meets Volatility Risk</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>外匯期貨頭寸：美元、USD/JPY、GBP/USD、AUD/USD | COT 報告</li>
<li>AUD/USD、NZD/USD 延續漲勢，儘管 AUD/NZD 閃現反轉風險</li>
<li>USD/JPY 因日元因再次懷疑干預而暴跌至 158</li>
<li>美元前景：看漲的季節性與波動風險相遇</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>COT Report Analysis: USD Index, USD/JPY and USD/CAD Futures Positioning</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>COT 報告分析：美元指數、USD/JPY 和 USD/CAD 期貨頭寸</h2>
</div><h3>Large Speculator Positioning from the COT report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>COT 報告中的大型投機者頭寸</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122741-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122741-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CFTC (COT), CME, ICE, LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：CFTC (COT), CME, ICE, LSEG</em></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>US Dollar:</strong> Aggregate futures exposure fell by $4.7 billion last week to $6.2 billion.</li>
<li><strong>EUR/USD:</strong> Net-long euro positions dropped by 9k contracts among large speculators and asset managers, driven by increased shorting.</li>
<li><strong>GBP/USD:</strong> Net shorts rose by 12k contracts across both groups, as shorts increased and longs were trimmed.</li>
<li><strong>USD/JPY:</strong> Suspected MoF intervention prompted traders to cut net-short yen exposure by 56.3k contracts.</li>
<li><strong>USD/CHF:</strong> Gross longs on the Swiss franc climbed 12.7k contracts, while shorts remained broadly unchanged.</li>
<li><strong>USD/CAD:</strong> Stronger demand for longs reduced net-exposure to Canadian dollar futures by 37.6k contracts.</li>
<li><strong>AUD/USD:</strong> Large speculators lifted net longs by 6.8k contracts, nearing a 13-year high.</li>
<li><strong>NZD/USD:</strong> Asset managers nudged net shorts to a 15-week high, rising by 1.5k contracts.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>美元：</strong> 上週整體期貨敞口下降了 47 億美元，降至 62 億美元。</li>
<li><strong>EUR/USD：</strong> 大型投機者和資產管理者的淨多歐元頭寸減少了 9000 份合約，主要是由於增加了空頭。</li>
<li><strong>GBP/USD：</strong> 兩組的淨空頭增加了 12000 份合約，空頭增加而多頭減少。</li>
<li><strong>USD/JPY：</strong> 懷疑的財政部干預促使交易者將淨空日元敞口減少了 56300 份合約。</li>
<li><strong>USD/CHF：</strong> 瑞士法郎的淨多頭增加了 12700 份合約，而空頭基本保持不變。</li>
<li><strong>USD/CAD：</strong> 對多頭的強勁需求使得對加元期貨的淨敞口減少了 37600 份合約。</li>
<li><strong>AUD/USD：</strong> 大型投機者將淨多頭增加了 6800 份合約，接近 13 年來的高點。</li>
<li><strong>NZD/USD：</strong> 資產管理者將淨空頭推高至 15 周高點，增加了 1500 份合約。</li>
</ul>
</div><h3>Asset Manager Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>資產管理者頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122847-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122847-2.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CFTC (COT), CME, ICE, LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：CFTC (COT), CME, ICE, LSEG</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2>FX Futures Positioning | COT Report (IMM Data)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>外匯期貨頭寸 | COT 報告 (IMM 數據)</h2>
</div><h3>US Dollar Index (DXY) Futures Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美元指數 (DXY) 期貨頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
</div><p>The US dollar is down around -3% from its late March high, with the market repeatedly failing to hold materially above 100 since November. It has closed lower in five of the past six weeks, although bearish momentum appears to be waning. With the US and Iran no closer to a deal, USD downside potential may be limited while upside pressures begin to build.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元自 3 月底以來下跌約 3%，市場自 11 月以來多次未能有效維持在 100 以上。過去六週中有五週收盤下跌，儘管看跌動能似乎正在減弱。由於美國和伊朗之間的協議沒有進展，美元的下行潛力可能有限，而上行壓力開始積聚。</p>
</div><p>Aggregate exposure to the USD via futures fell by $4.7 billion to $6.2 billion last week. However, it remains elevated relative to its February trough and not far below its April high. From that perspective, the US dollar index could appear oversold relative to aggregate positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通過期貨對美元的整體敞口上週下降了 47 億美元，降至 62 億美元。然而，相對於 2 月份的低點，它仍然處於較高水平，且距離 4 月份的高點並不遠。從這個角度來看，美元指數可能相對於整體頭寸顯得被低估。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, net-long exposure among asset managers rose by 2.6k contracts to 10.8k contracts, and they have remained net-long since early March. Given this group tends to be several steps ahead of large speculators, I am inclined to overlook the fact that the latter were close to flipping to net-short exposure last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，資產管理者的淨多頭敞口增加了 2600 份合約，達到 10800 份合約，自 3 月初以來一直保持淨多頭。考慮到這一羣體通常比大型投機者更具前瞻性，我傾向於忽視後者上週接近轉為淨空頭的事實。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511123439-2.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511123439-2.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: ICE, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：ICE, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
</div><h3>USD/JPY Futures Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>USD/JPY 期貨頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
</div><p>The surge of bearish volatility on the Japanese yen stemming from suspected MOF intervention shook bearish bets out of their positions. Large speculators culled -37.8k gross-shorts – their fastest weekly drop since August 2024. The fact that longs only rose by 2.5k shows an air of caution on volatile times. Asset managers reduced their gross-short exposure by -13.3k contracts – their fastest weekly pace since December 2024. Again, longs were only up slightly by 2.6k contracts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於懷疑的財政部干預，日元的看跌波動性激增，迫使看跌押注退出其頭寸。大型投機者減少了 37800 份空頭——這是自 2024 年 8 月以來最快的周降幅。多頭僅增加了 2500 份，顯示出在波動時期的謹慎。資產管理者將其空頭敞口減少了 13300 份合約——這是自 2024 年 12 月以來最快的周降幅。同樣，多頭僅略微增加了 2600 份合約。</p>
</div><p>I noted in my intervention-analysis reports that previous rounds from the MOF have generally coincided with multi-month tops on USD/JPY and double-digit declined in percentage terms. That keeps USD/JPY in my ‘fade into rallies’ watchlist for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我在干預分析報告中提到，財政部的前幾輪干預通常與 USD/JPY 的多月高點和百分比上的雙位數下降相吻合。這使得 USD/JPY 目前在我的 ‘逢高做空’ 觀察名單中。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122956-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122956-4.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CME, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：CME, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h3>USD/CAD Futures Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>USD/CAD 期貨頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
</div><p>A 23.8k reduction in net-short exposure among large speculators marked the fastest weekly shift in 14 weeks, leaving net shorts at just -14.7k contracts. However, weak Canadian employment data on Friday and broader CAD weakness suggest this may have been a poorly timed move by speculators.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型投機者的淨空頭敞口減少了 23800 份，標誌着 14 周以來最快的周變化，淨空頭僅為 14700 份合約。然而，週五疲弱的加拿大就業數據和更廣泛的加元疲軟表明，這可能是投機者時機不當的舉動。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, asset managers may also be questioning their decision to increase net-long exposure by 13.8k contracts, lifting positions to a six-week high of 20.8k contracts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，資產管理者可能也在質疑他們增加淨多頭敞口 13000 份合約的決定，使頭寸升至六週高點的 20800 份合約。</p>
</div><p>With USD/CAD snapping a four-week losing streak and Canadian dollar futures hinting at a potential swing high on the weekly chart, we could see a reversal of bullish bets in the week ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着 USD/CAD 結束四周的下跌，加元期貨暗示每週圖表上可能出現的反轉高點，我們可能會在接下來的一週看到看漲押注的反轉。</p>
</div><p>CFTC COT report chart showing USD/CAD futures positioning, with falling net shorts among large speculators and rising asset manager longs as prices hint at a potential reversal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CFTC COT 報告圖表顯示 USD/CAD 期貨頭寸，大型投機者的淨空頭減少，資產管理者的多頭增加，價格暗示可能的反轉。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511123515-1.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511123515-1.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CME, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：CME, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
</div><p>View the full <em>economic calendar</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看完整的_經濟日曆_</p>
</div><p>-- Written by Matt Simpson</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Matt Simpson</p>
</div><p>Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上關注 Matt @cLeverEdge</p>
</div>

FX Futures Positioning: USD Index, USD/JPY, USD/CAD | COT Report

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