<p>作者：Claudia Assis</p>
<p>全球原油儲備正在迅速枯竭，世界正面臨稀缺</p>
<p>本月早些時候停泊在霍爾木茲海峽的船隻。分析師警告，發達國家正面臨能源短缺。</p>
<p>全球石油庫存為因美國和以色列與伊朗的戰爭而導致的嚴重生產中斷提供了緩衝，並使霍爾木茲海峽的航運幾乎停滯。</p>
<p>但隨着和平希望的破滅，以及美國通脹在週二達到三年來的最高點，分析師們對能源儲備的減少發出了警報。</p>
<p>從地緣政治的角度來看，當前和平談判的僵局以及各種最後通牒和延期的混合可能會持續很長時間，道瓊斯能源煉油和石油產品執行董事 Jaime Brito 表示。</p>
<p>“但從能源的角度來看，這就像滾雪球一樣，隨着每週的過去，市場變得更加緊張，” Brito 説。</p>
<p>如果中東戰爭沒有迅速結束，世界——包括依賴其豐富石油儲備的七國集團——將 “開始面臨稀缺”，瑞士信貸的分析師 Ipek Ozkardeskaya 警告説。摩根大通的分析師最近表示，發達國家的商業原油庫存可能在 6 月初接近運營壓力水平。</p>
<p>從表面上看，全球原油庫存充足，包括公司持有的商業庫存和政府持有的戰略庫存。但並不是每一桶原油都可以使用，低庫存運營會帶來自身的問題。</p>
<p>關於具體有多少庫存的估計各不相同，因為公司和政府都在謹慎行事：他們不願意讓世界知道他們究竟儲存了多少原油。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利的分析師最近將全球商業和戰略石油儲備的原油庫存估計為 57.5 億桶，而法國外貿銀行則認為約為 78 億桶，摩根大通則認為約為 82 億桶——這三者都是通過官方和私人數據的混合得出的估計。作為參考，2020 年時庫存約為 90 億桶。</p>
<p>“庫存的減少在地理和產品類型上分佈不均，最大的下降發生在市場上最不明顯的領域，” 哥倫比亞大學全球能源政策中心的研究員、Kayrros 地理空間分析公司的聯合創始人 Antoine Halff 表示。</p>
<p>“亞洲是來自中東灣的原油主要出口地，顯然，原油庫存下降的壓力在這裏最為嚴重，” 他説。亞太地區（不包括中國）的原油庫存自 2 月 28 日戰爭開始以來下降了約 12%，降至至少 10 年來的最低水平。</p>
<p>國際能源署在 3 月協調釋放了 4 億桶來自其成員國的戰略儲備，美國戰略石油儲備提供了近一半的備用供應，從而提供了一些緩解。</p>
<p>需求抑制，包括全球航空公司的航班削減和主要在亞洲國家的限制，也有助於管理原油生產中的中斷。根據摩根大通的數據，全球石油需求在 3 月平均下降了 280 萬桶/天，並在 4 月跟蹤到更大幅度的下降，達到 430 萬桶/天，而在 5 月則下降了約 550 萬桶/天。</p>
<p>“我們框架的一個核心假設是，原油庫存消耗加速最終將迫使霍爾木茲海峽以某種方式重新開放，” 摩根大通的分析師在最近的一份報告中表示。</p>
<p>特朗普總統週二前往中國，與伊朗的談判陷入僵局。脆弱的停火仍在繼續。</p>
<p>油價期貨（CL00）（BRN00）交易價格超過每桶 100 美元，美國通脹數據的上升——由於油價上漲，4 月達到近三年來的最高點 3.8%——令股市感到恐慌。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利的分析師週一表示，油市正處於 “與時間賽跑” 的狀態，因為如果霍爾木茲海峽在 6 月繼續關閉，抑制原油價格波動的各種因素將會減弱。</p>
<p>一旦衝突結束，油輪通過霍爾木茲海峽的運輸恢復，流量恢復仍需數週，市場可能仍會考慮潛在額外中斷的風險。</p>
<p>沙特阿拉伯國有石油巨頭沙特阿美（SA:2223）週一警告稱，如果海峽繼續關閉數週，市場重平衡可能會延續到 2027 年，“石油供應挑戰” 將持續。</p>
<p>阿美重申了美國能源巨頭埃克森美孚（XOM）和雪佛龍（CVX）本月早些時候所説的觀點。這兩家公司在最新季度的利潤下降，管理層強調了衝突造成的混亂。</p>
<p>-Claudia Assis</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
<p>05-12-26 1352ET</p>

和順石油

英國石油

<p>全球石油危機因儲備迅速減少和地緣政治緊張局勢而加劇，特別是美國和以色列與伊朗之間的持續衝突。分析師警告稱，隨着原油庫存的減少，發達國家可能面臨能源短缺，全球庫存的估計差異顯著。國際能源署最近發佈的戰略儲備提供了暫時的緩解，但需求也急劇下降。根據沙特阿美的説法，如果霍爾木茲海峽繼續關閉，石油市場可能面臨嚴重干擾，供應挑戰可能延續到 2027 年</p>

<p>By Claudia Assis</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Claudia Assis</p>
</div><p>Global crude reserves are rapidly depleting, pushing the world toward scarcity</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球原油儲備正在迅速枯竭，世界正面臨稀缺</p>
</div><p>Vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this month. Developed nations are facing energy scarcity, analysts warn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月早些時候停泊在霍爾木茲海峽的船隻。分析師警告，發達國家正面臨能源短缺。</p>
</div><p>Global oil stockpiles have provided a cushion for the severe production disruptions caused by the U.S. and Israel war's with Iran - and the resulting near-standstill of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球石油庫存為因美國和以色列與伊朗的戰爭而導致的嚴重生產中斷提供了緩衝，並使霍爾木茲海峽的航運幾乎停滯。</p>
</div><p>But as hopes for peace falter and with U.S. inflation hitting a three-year high on Tuesday, analysts are sounding the alarm about dwindling energy reserves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但隨着和平希望的破滅，以及美國通脹在週二達到三年來的最高點，分析師們對能源儲備的減少發出了警報。</p>
</div><p>From a geopolitical perspective, the current stalemate in peace negotiations and the mix of ultimatums and extensions could go on for a long time, said Jaime Brito, executive director of refining and oil products at Dow Jones Energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從地緣政治的角度來看，當前和平談判的僵局以及各種最後通牒和延期的混合可能會持續很長時間，道瓊斯能源煉油和石油產品執行董事 Jaime Brito 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;But from the point of view of energy, this is a snowball - and every week that passes, you have tighter markets,&#34; Brito said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“但從能源的角度來看，這就像滾雪球一樣，隨着每週的過去，市場變得更加緊張，” Brito 説。</p>
</div><p>If the Middle East war doesn't end quickly, the world - including the Group of 7 developed nations that have relied on their ample oil reserves - &#34;will start facing scarcity,&#34; warned Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote. And analysts at J.P. Morgan recently said that developed countries' commercial crude stocks could be close to operational stress levels by early June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果中東戰爭沒有迅速結束，世界——包括依賴其豐富石油儲備的七國集團——將 “開始面臨稀缺”，瑞士信貸的分析師 Ipek Ozkardeskaya 警告説。摩根大通的分析師最近表示，發達國家的商業原油庫存可能在 6 月初接近運營壓力水平。</p>
</div><p>On paper, global crude inventories are ample, and they include both commercial stockpiles held by companies and strategic stockpiles held by governments. But not every barrel is available, and operating with low levels of inventories causes its own problems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從表面上看，全球原油庫存充足，包括公司持有的商業庫存和政府持有的戰略庫存。但並不是每一桶原油都可以使用，低庫存運營會帶來自身的問題。</p>
</div><p>Estimates on exactly how much is stockpiled vary, because both companies and governments are playing it close to the vest: They are not keen on letting the world know exactly how much crude they have stockpiled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於具體有多少庫存的估計各不相同，因為公司和政府都在謹慎行事：他們不願意讓世界知道他們究竟儲存了多少原油。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at Morgan Stanley recently pegged global commercial and SPR crude inventories at 5.75 billion barrels, while Societe Generale sees it at about 7.8 billion barrels and J.P. Morgan has it at around 8.2 billion barrels - and all three used a mix of official and private data to arrive at their estimates. For context, there were about 9 billion barrels sitting in inventories back in 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的分析師最近將全球商業和戰略石油儲備的原油庫存估計為 57.5 億桶，而法國外貿銀行則認為約為 78 億桶，摩根大通則認為約為 82 億桶——這三者都是通過官方和私人數據的混合得出的估計。作為參考，2020 年時庫存約為 90 億桶。</p>
</div><p>The draws have been &#34;unevenly distributed by geography and by type of product, and the biggest declines are in the least visible areas of the market,&#34; said Antoine Antoine Halff, a fellow at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy and co-founder of Kayrros, a geospatial analytics company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“庫存的減少在地理和產品類型上分佈不均，最大的下降發生在市場上最不明顯的領域，” 哥倫比亞大學全球能源政策中心的研究員、Kayrros 地理空間分析公司的聯合創始人 Antoine Halff 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Asia is the main outlet for crude oil from the Middle East Gulf, and that's predictably enough where the downward pressure on crude inventories has been most severe,&#34; he said. Crude stocks in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding China, have fallen by about 12% since Feb. 28, the start of the war, to their lowest levels in at least 10 years, he noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“亞洲是來自中東灣的原油主要出口地，顯然，原油庫存下降的壓力在這裏最為嚴重，” 他説。亞太地區（不包括中國）的原油庫存自 2 月 28 日戰爭開始以來下降了約 12%，降至至少 10 年來的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>Providing some relief in March, the International Energy Agency coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from the strategic reserves of its member countries, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve set to provide nearly half of the backup supplies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國際能源署在 3 月協調釋放了 4 億桶來自其成員國的戰略儲備，美國戰略石油儲備提供了近一半的備用供應，從而提供了一些緩解。</p>
</div><p>Demand curbs, including flight cuts from global airlines and restrictions mostly in Asian countries, have also helped manage the disruptions in crude production. According to J.P. Morgan, global oil demand fell by an average of 2.8 million barrels a day in March, and was tracking a larger decline of 4.3 million barrels a day in April and an even steeper decline of about 5.5 million barrels a day in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需求抑制，包括全球航空公司的航班削減和主要在亞洲國家的限制，也有助於管理原油生產中的中斷。根據摩根大通的數據，全球石油需求在 3 月平均下降了 280 萬桶/天，並在 4 月跟蹤到更大幅度的下降，達到 430 萬桶/天，而在 5 月則下降了約 550 萬桶/天。</p>
</div><p>&#34;A core assumption of our framework is that the accelerating pace of oil inventory depletion will ultimately force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one way or another,&#34; J.P. Morgan analysts said in a recent note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們框架的一個核心假設是，原油庫存消耗加速最終將迫使霍爾木茲海峽以某種方式重新開放，” 摩根大通的分析師在最近的一份報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump headed for China on Tuesday with negotiations with Iran at a stalemate. A tenuous cease-fire remains in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普總統週二前往中國，與伊朗的談判陷入僵局。脆弱的停火仍在繼續。</p>
</div><p>Oil futures (CL00) (BRN00) traded above $100 a barrel, and the uptick in U.S. inflation numbers - which jumped to a nearly three-year high of 3.8% in April because of higher gas prices - spooked the stock market DJIA SPX COMP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油價期貨（CL00）（BRN00）交易價格超過每桶 100 美元，美國通脹數據的上升——由於油價上漲，4 月達到近三年來的最高點 3.8%——令股市感到恐慌。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at Morgan Stanley on Monday said that oil markets are in a &#34;race against time,&#34; as the combination of factors that have been in place to curb crude-price jolts will fray if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed through June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的分析師週一表示，油市正處於 “與時間賽跑” 的狀態，因為如果霍爾木茲海峽在 6 月繼續關閉，抑制原油價格波動的各種因素將會減弱。</p>
</div><p>And once the conflict ends and tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, it would still take weeks for flows to resume, and markets likely will still price in risk of potential additional disruptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一旦衝突結束，油輪通過霍爾木茲海峽的運輸恢復，流量恢復仍需數週，市場可能仍會考慮潛在額外中斷的風險。</p>
</div><p>Saudi Arabia's state-controlled oil giant Saudi Aramco (SA:2223) cautioned Monday that if the strait remains closed for weeks further, a market rebalance likely will extend into 2027 and &#34;oil supply challenges&#34; will continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沙特阿拉伯國有石油巨頭沙特阿美（SA:2223）週一警告稱，如果海峽繼續關閉數週，市場重平衡可能會延續到 2027 年，“石油供應挑戰” 將持續。</p>
</div><p>Aramco echoed what U.S. energy giants Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) said earlier this month. Both companies' profits fell in the latest quarter, and their executives highlighted dislocations that the conflict is causing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿美重申了美國能源巨頭埃克森美孚（XOM）和雪佛龍（CVX）本月早些時候所説的觀點。這兩家公司在最新季度的利潤下降，管理層強調了衝突造成的混亂。</p>
</div><p>-Claudia Assis</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Claudia Assis</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>05-12-26 1352ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-12-26 1352ET</p>
</div>

Why the oil crisis could become a full-blown catastrophe within a month

Dow Jones

西方石油

標普油氣設備與服務 ETF - SPDR

能源業 ETF - SPDR

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

標普全球能源股指數 ETF - iShares

美國油氣勘探與生產 ETF - iShares

油氣服務 ETF - Market Vectors

K-1 免費原油策略 ETF - ProShares

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

油氣開採 ETF - SPDR

煉油公司指數 ETF - VanEck Vectors

摩根大通

摩根士丹利

法興銀行(ADR)

標普 500 指數

納斯達克綜合指數

埃克森美孚

雪佛龍

道瓊斯指數

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.20% DEP SHS REPSTG 1/400TH PFD SER MM

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 6%NON CUM DEP SHS REP 1/400TH PFD SER EE

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. DEP REP 1/400TH (5.75% NON CUM PFD DD)

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.625% DEP SH RE 1/400TH INT NO CU PF LL

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.55% DEP SHS REPSTG 1/400TH PFD SER JJ

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.75 DEP SHS REP 1/400 NCUM PFD SR GG

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

為什麼石油危機可能在一個月內演變成一場全面的災難