<ul>
<li>美元/日元再次跟蹤美日利率差</li>
<li>美國通脹高企使市場放棄美聯儲降息預期</li>
<li>疑似干預減緩日元貶值，但未能逆轉</li>
<li>交易者關注霍爾木茲海峽的頭條新聞對通脹和收益率的影響</li>
</ul>
<h2>摘要</h2>
<p>美元/日元再次表現出利率差的特徵，特別是在曲線的前端。隨着最新的美國通脹數據的發佈，這一關係再次顯著顯現，幫助解釋為何該貨幣對再次逼近日本財政部在最近幾周進行干預的水平。</p>
<p>但隨着市場開始定價美聯儲加息的風險，因為美國通脹壓力重新加速並擴大，現在更大的問題是日本當局是否願意繼續抵制主張日元貶值的基本力量。</p>
<h2>利率重新掌控</h2>
<p>美元/日元迴歸利率差作為主導驅動因素的轉變在下面的相關性矩陣中可見。該貨幣對與美日前端收益率差之間的關係在短期和中期滾動窗口中顯著增強，尤其是在過去一個月中，兩年期收益率差的關係尤其穩固。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095538-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="800" height="447" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095538-2.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>與此同時，美元/日元與更廣泛的風險情緒指標（如 VIX）之間的關係急劇減弱，進一步強化了利率而非避險需求、能源價格或更廣泛市場波動再次驅動價格行動的觀點。</p>
<p>重要的是，較短滾動窗口的相關性可能實際上低估了這種關係的強度，因為日本財政部在最近幾周的疑似干預事件可能打斷了本可能更緊密的美日利差與美元/日元上漲之間的關係。</p>
<h2>美國通脹脈動擴大</h2>
<p>隨着市場迅速重新評估美國利率前景，相關性的變化發生在另一輪高企的通脹數據發佈之後。4 月份生產者價格上漲 1.4%，為 2022 年 3 月以來的最大月度增幅，使年率達到 6.0%，為 2022 年 12 月以來的最高水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095611-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="999" height="635" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095611-3.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>重要的是，通脹脈動並不侷限於能源。服務價格上漲 1.2%，為四年來的最大增幅，而不包括食品和能源的核心商品價格當月上漲 0.7%，同比上漲 4.6%，指向經濟中上游價格壓力的擴大。</p>
<h2>美聯儲加息風險增加</h2>
<p>隨着美國消費者繼續積極消費，企業越來越多地將更高的投入成本轉嫁給消費者，市場開始定價美聯儲下一步可能需要加息而非降息的風險。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095649-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="636" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095649-4.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>市場已經完全放棄了對美聯儲降息的預期，期貨現在定價到年底大約 8 個基點的緊縮。更顯著的是，到 2027 年底的隱含聯邦基金利率現在高於當前有效基金利率，表明今年或明年不會有利率變動。</p>
<p>儘管遠期交易量仍然相對較薄，但這表明即將上任的美聯儲主席凱文·沃什可能需要努力説服其他 FOMC 成員，尤其是在通脹壓力擴大和經濟增長因鉅額與人工智能相關的資本支出而持續增長的情況下，放寬政策是合理的。</p>
<h2>干預遇上宏觀現實</h2>
<p>美聯儲預期的重新定價，加上霍爾木茲海峽的持續干擾和企業債務的高額髮行，繼續對國債收益率施加上行壓力，助長了美元對日元的重新強勢。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095732-5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="636" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095732-5.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>與此同時，如前所述，市場繼續要求日本提供更高的收益率，以補償感知的財政和經濟風險。如果沒有這種調整，替代機制仍然是進一步的日元貶值。</p>
<p>這使得日本當局處於越來越不舒服的位置。雖然疑似干預事件可能暫時減緩了日元貶值的速度，但如果美國通脹壓力繼續擴大，國債收益率持續上升，繼續抵制擴大的利率差將變得越來越困難和昂貴。</p>
<h2>交易者關注北京頭條</h2>
<p>注意力現在將轉向週四晚間唐納德·特朗普與習近平在北京的會晤。雖然市場顯然期待圍繞技術和投資的樂觀頭條，但對於美元/日元交易者來説，可能與伊朗戰爭及霍爾木茲海峽潛在重開的任何進展才是最重要的。</p>
<p>隨着能源衝擊繼續直接影響美國通脹壓力和國債收益率，任何緩解供應中斷的降級嘗試都可能減輕支撐美元對日元強勢的能源富裕與貧乏之間的擴大差異。</p>
<h2>干預區再次承壓</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095512-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1001" height="637" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095512-1.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>從技術角度來看，美元/日元在這一關鍵事件之前被夾在 157.92 的阻力位下，這是日本央行可能在本月早些時候被指示進行干預的水平。</p>
<p>突破可能表明日本財政部目前不願繼續抵制基本面，這可能允許價格向 50 日移動平均線或 159 阻力位上行。任何考慮在突破時做多的人都應確保風險管理到位，以限制資本風險，以防日本央行再次出手。</p>
<p>如果美元/日元保持在 157.92 以下，則可以選擇在上方設定緊密止損的情況下開空，目標為 156.00，因為在其他被懷疑的干預事件中，該貨幣對在此處找到了大量願意買入的買家。157 這個數字也值得注意，因為近期價格在該水平兩側交易了相當長的時間。</p>
<p>但如果考慮做空，交易者實際上依賴於日本央行再次出手，因為基本面仍然支持美元/日元進一步上漲。潛在的上漲空間可能更大。</p>
<p>儘管考慮到當前背景，我對指標的重視程度遠低於平時，但在之前的干預事件後積累的下行動能已經開始減弱，RSI（14）和 MACD 現在在方向風險上發出越來越中性的信號。</p>

2 倍做空日元 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做多日圓 ETF - ProShares

日元指數 ETF - CurrencyShares

<p>美元/日元匯率受到美日利率差的影響，尤其是在最近的美國通脹數據公佈之後。市場目前正在定價潛在的美聯儲加息，這引發了關於日本應對日元貶值的干預策略的質疑。美元/日元與美日收益率差之間的相關性增強，而更廣泛的市場波動性影響較小。隨着通脹壓力的加大，美聯儲可能需要考慮加息，這使得日本的立場變得複雜。即將發生的地緣政治發展，特別是關於霍爾木茲海峽的情況，也可能影響美元/日元的動態</p>

<ul>
<li>USD/JPY once again tracking front-end US-Japan rate spreads</li>
<li>Hot US inflation sees markets abandon Fed cut expectations</li>
<li>Suspected intervention slowing yen weakness, not reversing it</li>
<li>Traders eye Hormuz headlines for inflation and yield implications</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美元/日元再次跟蹤美日利率差</li>
<li>美國通脹高企使市場放棄美聯儲降息預期</li>
<li>疑似干預減緩日元貶值，但未能逆轉</li>
<li>交易者關注霍爾木茲海峽的頭條新聞對通脹和收益率的影響</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Summary</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>摘要</h2>
</div><p>USD/JPY is once again trading like a rates differential story, particularly at the front-end of the curve. The relationship reasserted itself aggressively following the latest hot US inflation data, helping to explain why the pair is once again pressing up against levels where suspected intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance took place in recent weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元再次表現出利率差的特徵，特別是在曲線的前端。隨着最新的美國通脹數據的發佈，這一關係再次顯著顯現，幫助解釋為何該貨幣對再次逼近日本財政部在最近幾周進行干預的水平。</p>
</div><p>But with markets starting to price the risk of Fed rate hikes as US inflation pressures reaccelerate and broaden, the bigger question now is whether Japanese authorities are willing to continue pushing back against fundamental forces that are arguing for a weaker yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但隨着市場開始定價美聯儲加息的風險，因為美國通脹壓力重新加速並擴大，現在更大的問題是日本當局是否願意繼續抵制主張日元貶值的基本力量。</p>
</div><h2>Rates Regain Control</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利率重新掌控</h2>
</div><p>The shift back towards rate differentials as the dominant driver of USD/JPY is visible in the correlation matrix below. Relationships between the pair and US-Japan front-end yield spreads have strengthened notably across short and medium-term rolling windows, with the relationship against two-year spreads especially firm over the past month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元迴歸利率差作為主導驅動因素的轉變在下面的相關性矩陣中可見。該貨幣對與美日前端收益率差之間的關係在短期和中期滾動窗口中顯著增強，尤其是在過去一個月中，兩年期收益率差的關係尤其穩固。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095538-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095538-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the relationship between USD/JPY and broader risk sentiment gauges such as the VIX has weakened sharply, reinforcing the view that rates, rather than haven demand, energy prices, or broader market volatility, are once again driving directional price action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，美元/日元與更廣泛的風險情緒指標（如 VIX）之間的關係急劇減弱，進一步強化了利率而非避險需求、能源價格或更廣泛市場波動再次驅動價格行動的觀點。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, correlations over shorter rolling windows may actually understate the strength of the relationship given suspected intervention episodes from Japan’s Ministry of Finance in recent weeks likely interrupted what otherwise may have been an even tighter alignment between widening US-Japan spreads and USD/JPY upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，較短滾動窗口的相關性可能實際上低估了這種關係的強度，因為日本財政部在最近幾周的疑似干預事件可能打斷了本可能更緊密的美日利差與美元/日元上漲之間的關係。</p>
</div><h2>US Inflation Pulse Broadens</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美國通脹脈動擴大</h2>
</div><p>That shift in correlations comes as markets rapidly reassess the US rates outlook following another hot round of inflation data. Producer prices surged 1.4% in April, the largest monthly increase since March 2022, pushing the annual rate to 6.0%, the highest since December 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着市場迅速重新評估美國利率前景，相關性的變化發生在另一輪高企的通脹數據發佈之後。4 月份生產者價格上漲 1.4%，為 2022 年 3 月以來的最大月度增幅，使年率達到 6.0%，為 2022 年 12 月以來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095611-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095611-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Importantly, the inflation pulse was not confined to energy. Services prices jumped 1.2%, the biggest increase in four years, while core goods prices excluding food and energy rose 0.7% on the month and 4.6% from a year earlier, pointing to broadening upstream price pressures across the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，通脹脈動並不侷限於能源。服務價格上漲 1.2%，為四年來的最大增幅，而不包括食品和能源的核心商品價格當月上漲 0.7%，同比上漲 4.6%，指向經濟中上游價格壓力的擴大。</p>
</div><h2>Fed Hike Risks Grow</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美聯儲加息風險增加</h2>
</div><p>With US consumers continuing to spend aggressively and businesses increasingly passing through higher input costs, markets are beginning to price the risk that the next move from the Fed may eventually need to be a rate hike rather than a cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着美國消費者繼續積極消費，企業越來越多地將更高的投入成本轉嫁給消費者，市場開始定價美聯儲下一步可能需要加息而非降息的風險。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095649-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095649-4.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Markets have responded by abandoning expectations for Fed rate cuts altogether, with futures now pricing around 8 basis points of tightening by year-end. More notably, the implied Fed funds rate by the end of 2027 now sits above the current effective funds rate, signaling no move in rates this year or next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場已經完全放棄了對美聯儲降息的預期，期貨現在定價到年底大約 8 個基點的緊縮。更顯著的是，到 2027 年底的隱含聯邦基金利率現在高於當前有效基金利率，表明今年或明年不會有利率變動。</p>
</div><p>While trading volumes that far out the curve remain relatively thin, it suggests incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh may have his work cut out convincing fellow FOMC members that easier policy is warranted, especially with inflation pressures broadening and economic growth continuing to hum along thanks in part to enormous AI-related capital expenditure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管遠期交易量仍然相對較薄，但這表明即將上任的美聯儲主席凱文·沃什可能需要努力説服其他 FOMC 成員，尤其是在通脹壓力擴大和經濟增長因鉅額與人工智能相關的資本支出而持續增長的情況下，放寬政策是合理的。</p>
</div><h2>Intervention Meets Macro Reality</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>干預遇上宏觀現實</h2>
</div><p>The repricing in Fed expectations, alongside ongoing disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and heavy corporate debt issuance, has continued to place upward pressure on Treasury yields across the curve, helping to fuel renewed dollar strength against the yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲預期的重新定價，加上霍爾木茲海峽的持續干擾和企業債務的高額髮行，繼續對國債收益率施加上行壓力，助長了美元對日元的重新強勢。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095732-5.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095732-5.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>At the same time, as discussed previously, markets continue to demand higher yields in Japan to compensate for perceived fiscal and economic risks. Without that adjustment, the alternative mechanism remains further yen weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，如前所述，市場繼續要求日本提供更高的收益率，以補償感知的財政和經濟風險。如果沒有這種調整，替代機制仍然是進一步的日元貶值。</p>
</div><p>That leaves Japanese authorities in an increasingly uncomfortable position. While suspected intervention episodes may have temporarily slowed the pace of yen depreciation, continuing to lean against widening rate differentials risks becoming increasingly difficult and costly if US inflation pressures continue to broaden and Treasury yields keep heading higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得日本當局處於越來越不舒服的位置。雖然疑似干預事件可能暫時減緩了日元貶值的速度，但如果美國通脹壓力繼續擴大，國債收益率持續上升，繼續抵制擴大的利率差將變得越來越困難和昂貴。</p>
</div><h2>Traders Eye Beijing Headlines</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>交易者關注北京頭條</h2>
</div><p>Attention will now turn to the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing later on Thursday. While markets clearly anticipate optimistic headlines surrounding technology and investment, for USD/JPY traders it may be any developments tied to the war with Iran and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that matter most.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>注意力現在將轉向週四晚間唐納德·特朗普與習近平在北京的會晤。雖然市場顯然期待圍繞技術和投資的樂觀頭條，但對於美元/日元交易者來説，可能與伊朗戰爭及霍爾木茲海峽潛在重開的任何進展才是最重要的。</p>
</div><p>With the energy shock continuing to feed directly into US inflation pressures and Treasury yields, any attempts towards de-escalation that ease supply disruptions could temper the widening divergence between the energy haves and have nots that is underpinning dollar strength against the yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着能源衝擊繼續直接影響美國通脹壓力和國債收益率，任何緩解供應中斷的降級嘗試都可能減輕支撐美元對日元強勢的能源富裕與貧乏之間的擴大差異。</p>
</div><h2>Intervention Zone Back Under Pressure</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>干預區再次承壓</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095512-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095512-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>From a technical perspective, USD/JPY finds itself wedged beneath 157.92 resistance ahead of this key event, a level where the BoJ was likely instructed to intervene earlier this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從技術角度來看，美元/日元在這一關鍵事件之前被夾在 157.92 的阻力位下，這是日本央行可能在本月早些時候被指示進行干預的水平。</p>
</div><p>A break above may signal a reluctance from Japan’s Ministry of Finance to continue pushing back against fundamentals for now, potentially allowing for a run higher towards the 50-day moving average or 159 resistance. Anyone contemplating longs on a break should ensure risk management is in place to limit capital risk should the BoJ go bang again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>突破可能表明日本財政部目前不願繼續抵制基本面，這可能允許價格向 50 日移動平均線或 159 阻力位上行。任何考慮在突破時做多的人都應確保風險管理到位，以限制資本風險，以防日本央行再次出手。</p>
</div><p>If USD/JPY remains capped beneath 157.92, the option exists to initiate shorts with a tight stop above for protection, targeting 156.00 where the pair found plenty of willing buyers during other suspected intervention episodes. The 157 figure also remains notable given the price spent considerable time trading either side of the level in recent weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美元/日元保持在 157.92 以下，則可以選擇在上方設定緊密止損的情況下開空，目標為 156.00，因為在其他被懷疑的干預事件中，該貨幣對在此處找到了大量願意買入的買家。157 這個數字也值得注意，因為近期價格在該水平兩側交易了相當長的時間。</p>
</div><p>But if considering shorts, traders are effectively relying upon the BoJ to wade back in with the bazooka because fundamentals continue to argue for further upside in USD/JPY. Potentially a lot more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果考慮做空，交易者實際上依賴於日本央行再次出手，因為基本面仍然支持美元/日元進一步上漲。潛在的上漲空間可能更大。</p>
</div><p>While I'm placing far less weight on indicators than usual given the current backdrop, downside momentum that had been building following prior intervention episodes is already petering out, with RSI (14) and MACD now generating increasingly neutral signals on directional risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管考慮到當前背景，我對指標的重視程度遠低於平時，但在之前的干預事件後積累的下行動能已經開始減弱，RSI（14）和 MACD 現在在方向風險上發出越來越中性的信號。</p>
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美元/日元預測：隨着美聯儲前景的變化，日本的干預困境進一步加深