<p>等待更具吸引力的市場條件來購買股票的問題在於。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利的邁克·威爾遜在上個月的研究報告中寫道：“市場不會等待任何人。”</p>
<p>他補充道：“股票市場交易的是未來，而信息是不完善和不確定的。就像它們折現了我們現在在頭條新聞中看到的許多不確定性一樣，它們現在正在展望這種不確定性的解決以及對一年前開始的滾動復甦的更好可見性。”</p>
<p>許多 努力理解 今年市場走勢的人繼續犯一個錯誤，假設股票應該反映今天發生的事情，而實際上它們 代表的是對未來的預期 以及投資者願意為這種未來支付的 溢價。</p>
<p>公平地説，雖然股票 價格 可能看起來並未反映出加劇的不確定性，但 股票<em>估值</em>確實如此。</p>
<h2>股票更便宜，但價格更高</h2>
<p>隨着標準普爾 500 指數在今年早些時候從高點跌至低點下跌了 9%，前瞻市盈率（P/E）下降了 18%。</p>
<p>儘管價格已經超過了這些損失，但市盈率仍低於其高點，這表明投資者為未來收益支付的溢價較低。</p>
<p>威爾遜在週三寫道：“在我們看來，這並不是自滿，而是市場在過去六個月中對出現的眾多風險進行了大量定價工作——伊朗戰爭/油價飆升、人工智能干擾和私人信貸擔憂是最重要的。”</p>
<p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! U99-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6d8c899-c592-4221-8e93-a92e4ab045c1_1678x1380.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! U99-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6d8c899-c592-4221-8e93-a92e4ab045c1_1678x1380.png) 前瞻市盈率在今年早些時候急劇下降，目前仍低於峯值水平。（來源：摩根士丹利）</p>
<p>但股票價格如何可以同時是_更高_的，同時又是_更便宜_的估值？</p>
<p>這很簡單：_收益_正在上升！</p>
<p>雖然我們都被最近的市場波動分散了注意力，但報告的收益 好於預期，未來收益的估計 也在上升。</p>
<p>當市盈率中的 E 上升速度快於 P 時，就可能出現 P 上升而市盈率下降的結果。這只是數學。</p>
<p>威爾遜的下圖很好地説明了這一動態。藍線（收益）超過了黃線（價格），導致灰線（估值）趨勢下降。</p>
<p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! T4eC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03d7f5c2-12c0-45f1-860f-fe6ea54e0b23_2124x1602.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! T4eC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03d7f5c2-12c0-45f1-860f-fe6ea54e0b23_2124x1602.png) 前瞻收益估計超過了價格，導致估值下降。（來源：摩根士丹利）</p>
<p>關於市場不會等待任何人的觀點，這在對未來收益的預期上非常真實。</p>
<p>我隨着年齡的增長，逐漸意識到時間不會停止。而且收益往往隨着時間的推移而上升——至少，根據 德意志銀行 的這張長期日誌圖表，標準普爾 500 的收益在過去 90 年裏一直是這樣的趨勢。</p>
<p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! wKAE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F18683037-0113-4c55-aa6e-81bc1dc1089d_2182x1242.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! wKAE!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F18683037-0113-4c55-aa6e-81bc1dc1089d_2182x1242.png) 收益在幾十年裏一直呈上升趨勢。（來源：德意志銀行）</p>
<p>這意味着如果你在等待更便宜的估值來購買股票，時間就是你的敵人。因為隨着時間的推移，收益往往會上升。這就造成了你在最終獲得你認為的吸引人的估值時，面臨支付更高價格的風險。</p>
<h2>大局</h2>
<p>你可以坐在場外，擔心估值看起來不具吸引力。也許它們最終會符合你對合理估值的定義。</p>
<p>但請記住：上市公司永遠不會停止 追求收益增長。這自資本主義開始以來就一直在發生。（閲讀更多關於這一點的內容 這裏 和 這裏。)</p>
<p>因此，您等待那個有吸引力的估值的時間越長，盈利可能會更高，您會發現那個有吸引力的估值伴隨着更高的價格的風險就越大。</p>
<p><strong><em>Benzinga 免責聲明：本文來自一位未付費的外部貢獻者。它不代表 Benzinga 的報道，並且未經過內容或準確性的編輯。</em></strong></p>
<p>–</p>

摩根士丹利

PEPS

CVLC

<p>摩根士丹利的邁克·威爾遜強調，等待更好的市場條件再購買股票可能是不明智的，因為股市反映的是未來的預期，而非當前的現實。儘管近期市場波動較大，但企業盈利超出預期，導致股票價格上漲而估值（市盈率）卻下降。由於盈利通常會隨着時間的推移而增長，推遲購買可能會導致在估值最終看起來有吸引力時支付更高的股票價格</p>

<p>Here's the problem with <em>waiting</em> for more attractive market conditions to buy stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>等待更具吸引力的市場條件來購買股票的問題在於。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The market waits for no one,&#34; Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson wrote in his research note last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的邁克·威爾遜在上個月的研究報告中寫道：“市場不會等待任何人。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;Equity markets trade in the future where information is imperfect and uncertain,&#34; he added. &#34;Just like they discounted much of the uncertainty we are now seeing in the headlines, they are now looking ahead to the resolution of that uncertainty and better visibility on the rolling recovery that began a year ago.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他補充道：“股票市場交易的是未來，而信息是不完善和不確定的。就像它們折現了我們現在在頭條新聞中看到的許多不確定性一樣，它們現在正在展望這種不確定性的解決以及對一年前開始的滾動復甦的更好可見性。”</p>
</div><p>Many of the folks struggling to make sense of this year's market action continue to make the mistake of assuming that stocks are supposed to reflect what's happening today, when in reality they represent expectations for the future and the premium investors are willing to pay for that future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多 努力理解 今年市場走勢的人繼續犯一個錯誤，假設股票應該反映今天發生的事情，而實際上它們 代表的是對未來的預期 以及投資者願意為這種未來支付的 溢價。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, while stock <em>prices</em> may not appear to reflect heightened uncertainty, stock <em>valuations</em> certainly do.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地説，雖然股票 價格 可能看起來並未反映出加劇的不確定性，但 股票<em>估值</em>確實如此。</p>
</div><h2>Stocks are cheaper, but their prices are higher</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票更便宜，但價格更高</h2>
</div><p>As the S&amp;P 500 fell 9% peak-to-trough earlier this year, the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropped 18%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着標準普爾 500 指數在今年早些時候從高點跌至低點下跌了 9%，前瞻市盈率（P/E）下降了 18%。</p>
</div><p>And while prices have more than recovered those losses, the P/E ratios remain off their highs, suggesting investors are paying a lower premium for future earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管價格已經超過了這些損失，但市盈率仍低於其高點，這表明投資者為未來收益支付的溢價較低。</p>
</div><p>&#34;That's not complacency, in our view, but a market that did a substantial amount of work to price in the numerous risks that appeared over the past 6 months — Iran war/oil spike, AI disruption and private credit concerns being the most significant,&#34; Wilson wrote on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威爾遜在週三寫道：“在我們看來，這並不是自滿，而是市場在過去六個月中對出現的眾多風險進行了大量定價工作——伊朗戰爭/油價飆升、人工智能干擾和私人信貸擔憂是最重要的。”</p>
</div><p> The forward P/E ratio fell sharply earlier this year, and it remains below peak levels. (Source: Morgan Stanley)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! U99-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6d8c899-c592-4221-8e93-a92e4ab045c1_1678x1380.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! U99-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6d8c899-c592-4221-8e93-a92e4ab045c1_1678x1380.png) 前瞻市盈率在今年早些時候急劇下降，目前仍低於峯值水平。（來源：摩根士丹利）</p>
</div><p>But how can stocks be <em>higher</em> in price but also <em>cheaper</em> in valuation?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但股票價格如何可以同時是_更高_的，同時又是_更便宜_的估值？</p>
</div><p>It's simple: Earnings are looking up!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這很簡單：_收益_正在上升！</p>
</div><p>While we were all distracted by the recent bout of market volatility, reported earnings have been better than expected and estimates for future earnings have been going up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然我們都被最近的市場波動分散了注意力，但報告的收益 好於預期，未來收益的估計 也在上升。</p>
</div><p>When the E in P/E is rising faster than the P, it's possible to get an outcome where the P is up while the P/E is down. That's just math.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當市盈率中的 E 上升速度快於 P 時，就可能出現 P 上升而市盈率下降的結果。這只是數學。</p>
</div><p>The chart below from Wilson illustrates this dynamic nicely. The blue line (earnings) has outpaced the yellow line (price), causing the grey line (valuation) to trend lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威爾遜的下圖很好地説明了這一動態。藍線（收益）超過了黃線（價格），導致灰線（估值）趨勢下降。</p>
</div><p> Forward earnings estimates have outpaced prices, causing valuations to come down. (Source: Morgan Stanley)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! T4eC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03d7f5c2-12c0-45f1-860f-fe6ea54e0b23_2124x1602.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! T4eC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03d7f5c2-12c0-45f1-860f-fe6ea54e0b23_2124x1602.png) 前瞻收益估計超過了價格，導致估值下降。（來源：摩根士丹利）</p>
</div><p>To Wilson's point about the market waiting for no one, this has been very true about expectations for future earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於市場不會等待任何人的觀點，這在對未來收益的預期上非常真實。</p>
</div><p>Something I've grown to appreciate with age is that time doesn't stop. And earnings tend to go up with time — at least, that's been the trend for S&amp;P 500 earnings for at least 90 years, according to this long-term log chart from Deutsche Bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我隨着年齡的增長，逐漸意識到時間不會停止。而且收益往往隨着時間的推移而上升——至少，根據 德意志銀行 的這張長期日誌圖表，標準普爾 500 的收益在過去 90 年裏一直是這樣的趨勢。</p>
</div><p> Earnings have been trending higher for decades. (Source: Deutsche Bank)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! wKAE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F18683037-0113-4c55-aa6e-81bc1dc1089d_2182x1242.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! wKAE!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F18683037-0113-4c55-aa6e-81bc1dc1089d_2182x1242.png) 收益在幾十年裏一直呈上升趨勢。（來源：德意志銀行）</p>
</div><p>That means if you're waiting for cheaper valuations to buy stocks, time is your enemy. Because as time passes, earnings tend to go up. That creates the condition where you're at risk of paying up when you finally get what you think is an attractive valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着如果你在等待更便宜的估值來購買股票，時間就是你的敵人。因為隨着時間的推移，收益往往會上升。這就造成了你在最終獲得你認為的吸引人的估值時，面臨支付更高價格的風險。</p>
</div><h2>The big picture</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>大局</h2>
</div><p>You could sit on the sidelines, fretting over how valuations appear unattractive. Maybe they do eventually meet your definition of a reasonable valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可以坐在場外，擔心估值看起來不具吸引力。也許它們最終會符合你對合理估值的定義。</p>
</div><p>But remember: Publicly traded companies will never stop pursuing earnings growth. It's something that's been going on since the beginning of capitalism. (Read more about that here and here.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但請記住：上市公司永遠不會停止 追求收益增長。這自資本主義開始以來就一直在發生。（閲讀更多關於這一點的內容 這裏 和 這裏。)</p>
</div><p>So, the longer you wait for that attractive valuation to come, the greater the risk that earnings are much higher and you find that attractive valuation comes with a much higher price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，您等待那個有吸引力的估值的時間越長，盈利可能會更高，您會發現那個有吸引力的估值伴隨着更高的價格的風險就越大。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>Benzinga 免責聲明：本文來自一位未付費的外部貢獻者。它不代表 Benzinga 的報道，並且未經過內容或準確性的編輯。</em></strong></p>
</div><p>–</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>–</p>
</div>

The Market Waits For No One

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市場從不等待任何人