<p>費城聯邦儲備銀行行長兼首席執行官安娜·保爾森即將發言：</p>
<ul>
<li>格林威治標準時間 2300 / 美國東部時間 1900</li>
</ul>
<p>保爾森於 2026 年成為聯邦公開市場委員會的投票成員，並在最近的 FOMC 會議上於 4 月 29 日投票支持維持利率不變，聯邦基金目標區間保持在 3.50% 至 3.75% 不變。今年早些時候，她曾表示對通脹持 “謹慎樂觀” 的態度，並暗示如果經濟條件如她所預期的發展，2026 年晚些時候可能適合適度降息。但這一觀點隨後被事件所超越。市場對 2026 年初進一步降息的預期讓位於加息的可能性，因為戰爭的通脹效應加劇。自 4 月會議以來，我們聽到了許多美聯儲官員的聲音，他們在通脹高企的情況下，降低了對降息的熱情，通脹預期有失去錨定的風險。</p>
<p>中國人民銀行將在週三設定貸款市場報價利率（LPR），市場普遍預計一年期和五年期利率將連續第十二個月保持不變。一年期 LPR 是大多數企業和家庭貸款的基準，自 2025 年 5 月以來一直維持在 3.0%，而五年期利率是抵押貸款定價的關鍵參考，自同一時期以來保持在 3.5%。</p>
<p>儘管 LPR 仍然是直接影響中國實體經濟借貸成本的正式基準，但其在人民銀行自身政策架構中的地位已經發生了決定性的變化。中央銀行現在將七天逆回購利率視為其主要政策工具，這一變化在 2024 年中期正式表明，當時人民銀行行長潘功勝表示，短期公開市場操作將作為引導貨幣條件的主要槓桿，而 LPR 和中期借貸便利則承擔輔助角色。</p>
<p>七天逆回購利率是人民銀行暫時從商業銀行購買證券的利率，向銀行間市場注入短期流動性，並約定在七天後將其賣回。由於它可以在每日的公開市場操作中進行調整，因此政策制定者對資金條件的控制比每月根據 18 家指定商業銀行的提交設定的 LPR 更為精確和及時。這些提交本身是基於銀行對人民銀行流動性的投標，因此逆回購利率實際上會傳導到 LPR，強化了層級關係。</p>
<p>當前七天逆回購利率為 1.4%，自 2025 年 5 月 9 日以來一直保持該水平，當時人民銀行將其從 1.5% 下調了 10 個基點。這一舉措是更廣泛的寬鬆政策的一部分，同時將一年期 LPR 從 3.1% 降至 3.0%，將五年期 LPR 從 3.6% 降至 3.5%，並降低了 50 個基點的存款準備金率和住房公積金貸款利率。自那時以來，該利率沒有變動，官員們被認為對進一步降息的意願有限，擔心更深的降息可能會擠壓銀行利潤並對人民幣施加不必要的壓力。</p>
<p>LPR 框架於 2019 年 8 月引入，當時人民銀行將其指定為新銀行貸款給家庭和企業的新基準，取代了中央銀行較舊的管理性一年期貸款利率。該改革旨在改善貨幣政策向實體經濟借貸成本的傳導。最新的演變是將逆回購利率提升至 LPR 之上，進一步朝着更市場化的框架邁進，結構上更接近主要西方中央銀行使用的框架。</p>
<p>目前，維持利率不變的決定反映了一種謹慎的平衡行為。中國經濟在 2026 年第一季度增長了 5%，達到了政府年度目標區間的上限 4.5% 至 5%，減輕了立即放鬆政策的壓力。同時，中東緊張局勢升級使全球油價大幅上漲，帶來了複雜的通脹壓力，增加了降息的難度。3 月份，工廠出廠價格在三年多以來首次轉正，同比增長 0.5%，而消費者通脹在 2 月份錄得三年多以來的最大漲幅後略有回落。人民銀行已表明其意圖保持政策 “支持性” 和 “適度寬鬆”，但並不急於進行新的降息。</p>

<p>費城聯邦儲備銀行行長安娜·保爾森（Anna Paulson）將在格林威治標準時間 2300 時發言。她最近投票決定將聯邦基金目標區間維持在 3.50%-3.75%。由於通脹上升，市場對降息的預期已轉向潛在加息。同時，中國人民銀行預計將維持貸款市場報價利率不變，因為它優先考慮七天逆回購利率作為貨幣政策，反映出更市場導向的做法</p>

<p>Anna Paulson, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is speaking soon:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>費城聯邦儲備銀行行長兼首席執行官安娜·保爾森即將發言：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>2300 GMT / 1900 US Eastern time</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>格林威治標準時間 2300 / 美國東部時間 1900</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Paulson became a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2026 and voted with the majority to hold rates steady at the most recent FOMC meeting on 29 April, with the federal funds target range kept unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Earlier in the year she had described herself as &#34;cautiously optimistic&#34; on inflation and had signalled that modest rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026 if economic conditions evolved as she expected. That view has since been overtaken by events. Market expectations that had priced in further rate cuts at the start of 2026 gave way to the possibility of rate hikes as the war's inflationary effects intensified. We've heard from many Fed officials since the April meeting, dialling back their enthusiasm for cuts as inflation runs high and inflation expectations risk becoming unanchored.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>保爾森於 2026 年成為聯邦公開市場委員會的投票成員，並在最近的 FOMC 會議上於 4 月 29 日投票支持維持利率不變，聯邦基金目標區間保持在 3.50% 至 3.75% 不變。今年早些時候，她曾表示對通脹持 “謹慎樂觀” 的態度，並暗示如果經濟條件如她所預期的發展，2026 年晚些時候可能適合適度降息。但這一觀點隨後被事件所超越。市場對 2026 年初進一步降息的預期讓位於加息的可能性，因為戰爭的通脹效應加劇。自 4 月會議以來，我們聽到了許多美聯儲官員的聲音，他們在通脹高企的情況下，降低了對降息的熱情，通脹預期有失去錨定的風險。</p>
</div><p>The People's Bank of China is due to set its Loan Prime Rate on Wednesday, with markets widely expecting both the one-year and five-year tenors to remain unchanged for a twelfth consecutive month. The one-year LPR, the benchmark for most corporate and household lending, has been held at 3.0% since May 2025, while the five-year rate, the key reference for mortgage pricing, has sat at 3.5% for the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國人民銀行將在週三設定貸款市場報價利率（LPR），市場普遍預計一年期和五年期利率將連續第十二個月保持不變。一年期 LPR 是大多數企業和家庭貸款的基準，自 2025 年 5 月以來一直維持在 3.0%，而五年期利率是抵押貸款定價的關鍵參考，自同一時期以來保持在 3.5%。</p>
</div><p>While the LPR remains the formal benchmark that directly shapes borrowing costs across China's real economy, its status within the PBOC's own policy architecture has decisively shifted. The central bank now treats the seven-day reverse repo rate as its primary policy instrument, a change formally signalled in mid-2024 when PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng indicated that short-term open market operations would serve as the main lever for guiding monetary conditions, with the LPR and the Medium-term Lending Facility taking supporting roles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 LPR 仍然是直接影響中國實體經濟借貸成本的正式基準，但其在人民銀行自身政策架構中的地位已經發生了決定性的變化。中央銀行現在將七天逆回購利率視為其主要政策工具，這一變化在 2024 年中期正式表明，當時人民銀行行長潘功勝表示，短期公開市場操作將作為引導貨幣條件的主要槓桿，而 LPR 和中期借貸便利則承擔輔助角色。</p>
</div><p>The seven-day reverse repo rate is the rate at which the PBOC temporarily buys securities from commercial banks, injecting short-term liquidity into the interbank market, with an agreement to sell them back after seven days. Because it is (well, can be) adjusted in daily open market operations, it gives policymakers far more precise and timely control over funding conditions than the LPR, which is set once a month based on submissions from a panel of 18 designated commercial banks. Those submissions are themselves anchored to what the banks have bid for PBOC liquidity, meaning the reverse repo rate effectively feeds through to the LPR, reinforcing the hierarchy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>七天逆回購利率是人民銀行暫時從商業銀行購買證券的利率，向銀行間市場注入短期流動性，並約定在七天後將其賣回。由於它可以在每日的公開市場操作中進行調整，因此政策制定者對資金條件的控制比每月根據 18 家指定商業銀行的提交設定的 LPR 更為精確和及時。這些提交本身是基於銀行對人民銀行流動性的投標，因此逆回購利率實際上會傳導到 LPR，強化了層級關係。</p>
</div><p>The reverse repo rate currently stands at 1.4%, a level it has held since 9 May 2025, when the PBOC cut it by 10 basis points from 1.5%. That move was part of a broader easing package that also brought the one-year LPR down from 3.1% to 3.0% and the five-year LPR from 3.6% to 3.5%, alongside a 50-basis-point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a cut to Housing Provident Fund loan rates. It has not moved since, and officials are seen as having limited appetite for further reductions, with concerns that deeper cuts could squeeze bank margins and put unwanted pressure on the yuan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前七天逆回購利率為 1.4%，自 2025 年 5 月 9 日以來一直保持該水平，當時人民銀行將其從 1.5% 下調了 10 個基點。這一舉措是更廣泛的寬鬆政策的一部分，同時將一年期 LPR 從 3.1% 降至 3.0%，將五年期 LPR 從 3.6% 降至 3.5%，並降低了 50 個基點的存款準備金率和住房公積金貸款利率。自那時以來，該利率沒有變動，官員們被認為對進一步降息的意願有限，擔心更深的降息可能會擠壓銀行利潤並對人民幣施加不必要的壓力。</p>
</div><p>The LPR framework itself was introduced in August 2019, when the PBOC designated it the new lending benchmark for new bank loans to households and businesses, replacing the central bank's older administered one-year lending rate. That reform was designed to improve the transmission of monetary policy into real-economy borrowing costs. The latest evolution, elevating the reverse repo rate above the LPR in the policy pecking order, represents a further step toward a more market-oriented framework closer in structure to those used by major Western central banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LPR 框架於 2019 年 8 月引入，當時人民銀行將其指定為新銀行貸款給家庭和企業的新基準，取代了中央銀行較舊的管理性一年期貸款利率。該改革旨在改善貨幣政策向實體經濟借貸成本的傳導。最新的演變是將逆回購利率提升至 LPR 之上，進一步朝着更市場化的框架邁進，結構上更接近主要西方中央銀行使用的框架。</p>
</div><p>For now, the decision to hold rates reflects a careful balancing act. China's economy grew 5% in the first quarter of 2026, hitting the top of the government's annual target range of 4.5% to 5%, reducing immediate pressure to ease. At the same time, escalating Middle East tensions have pushed global oil prices sharply higher, importing inflationary pressure that complicates the case for cuts. Factory-gate prices turned positive for the first time in more than three years in March, rising 0.5% year on year, while consumer inflation logged its biggest jump in over three years in February before easing slightly. The PBOC has signalled it intends to keep policy &#34;supportive&#34; and &#34;moderately loose&#34; but is in no rush to pull the trigger on fresh rate reductions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，維持利率不變的決定反映了一種謹慎的平衡行為。中國經濟在 2026 年第一季度增長了 5%，達到了政府年度目標區間的上限 4.5% 至 5%，減輕了立即放鬆政策的壓力。同時，中東緊張局勢升級使全球油價大幅上漲，帶來了複雜的通脹壓力，增加了降息的難度。3 月份，工廠出廠價格在三年多以來首次轉正，同比增長 0.5%，而消費者通脹在 2 月份錄得三年多以來的最大漲幅後略有回落。人民銀行已表明其意圖保持政策 “支持性” 和 “適度寬鬆”，但並不急於進行新的降息。</p>
</div>

亞洲地區的經濟和事件日曆：2026年5月20日- 美聯儲官員保爾森發表講話