<p>根據《華爾街日報》，埃隆·馬斯克的 SpaceX 正準備在 6 月 12 日進行首次公開募股（IPO）。如果 SpaceX 能夠實現或甚至超過其目標 IPO 估值 2 萬億美元，我認為這一成功的順風將推動馬斯克其他主要業務——<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA +3.28%）的股價。我的邏輯很簡單：馬斯克在激發興奮和牛市動能方面的能力很可能會溢出到他的其他公司。</p>
<p>雖然短期的熱情確實可能提升特斯拉的股價，但仔細觀察公司會發現，SpaceX 的 IPO 只是敍事驅動交易故事中的又一章，而不是對可持續商業價值的明智反映。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MDkwNC90ZXNsYS1sb2dvLXdpdGgtY3liZXJjYWItaW4tYmFja2dyb3VuZC5wbmcCNnc9Mzg0MAI2b3A9cmVzaXpl?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MDkwNC90ZXNsYS1sb2dvLXdpdGgtY3liZXJjYWItaW4tYmFja2dyb3VuZC5wbmcCNnc9Mzg0MAI2b3A9cmVzaXpl"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>SpaceX IPO 如何放大特斯拉股價</h2>
<p>馬斯克在圍繞雄心勃勃的技術願景構建感染性樂觀方面有着獨特的才能。他的新產品發佈、軟件更新以及關於未來的宏偉宣言歷來會引發特斯拉股價的上漲。然而，當公司未能按承諾的時間表交付時，或當投資者的預期發生變化時，這些漲幅通常會伴隨嚴厲的回調。波動性是特斯拉股票的一個顯著特徵，股價往往基於情緒而非其運營結果而波動。</p>
<p>我認為，公開上市的 SpaceX 很可能會以類似的方式交易。它在可重複使用火箭和 Starlink 衞星互聯網方面的成就，加上在人工智能（AI）和太空探索交匯處的宏偉抱負，構成了一個引人入勝的故事。</p>
<p>新火箭發射的成功或星際飛船開發的突破可能會引發零售和機構投資者的購買狂潮。相反，航空航天行業進展過程中不可避免的生產延遲、測試失敗或監管挑戰則可能導致劇烈的下跌。</p>
<p>由於馬斯克同時領導 SpaceX 和特斯拉，SpaceX 的積極發展自然會提升特斯拉的形象。同時，任何一家公司出現的動盪都可能對另一家公司的股價施加壓力。</p>
<p>展開</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9hcnQvY29tcGFueWxvZ29zL21hcmsvVFNMQS5wbmcCNnc9MTI4AjZvcD1yZXNpemU?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="特斯拉股票報價" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9hcnQvY29tcGFueWxvZ29zL21hcmsvVFNMQS5wbmcCNnc9MTI4AjZvcD1yZXNpemU"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<p>特斯拉</p>
<p>今日變動</p>
<p>(3.28%) $13.27</p>
<p>當前價格</p>
<p>$417.38</p>
<h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$1.6 萬億</p>
<p>日內區間</p>
<p>$406.41 - $417.42</p>
<p>52 周區間</p>
<p>$273.21 - $498.83</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>230 萬</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>6200 萬</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>19.07%</p>
<h2>特斯拉的故事很強，但核心業務正在減弱</h2>
<p>特斯拉在過去幾年的運營表現呈現出複雜的局面。構成其核心業務的電動汽車（EV）在海外面臨日益激烈的競爭，這給其價格帶來了壓力，並導致主要市場的需求波動。</p>
<p>經過多年的收入增長，其收入在過去三年左右趨於平穩，銷售額出現下降，幾年前仍在兩位數的利潤率現已降至約 4%。與此同時，特斯拉的能源儲存業務顯示出令人鼓舞的勢頭，部署量不斷增長且持續盈利——為銷售多樣化提供了重要來源。</p>
<p>儘管存在這些現實，特斯拉的估值反映了投資者對未來在自動駕駛和類人機器人領域突破的激進樂觀預期。該公司的 1.5 萬億美元市值和三位數的市盈率假設其將在尚未大規模驗證的領域實現巨大的 AI 驅動成功。生產時間表、獲得 先進駕駛輔助系統的監管批准 的必要性，以及所有這些新舉措所需的資本密集度都構成了壓力點。</p>
<p></p>
<p>TSLA PS 比率 數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>結論：追逐敍事驅動的動量是危險的</h2>
<p>SpaceX IPO 有潛力在特斯拉周圍產生一陣興奮。馬斯克的雙重領導、所謂的 AI 順風以及發行規模的龐大都是形成樂觀情緒的完美配方。我懷疑 SpaceX 和特斯拉股票的波動性將保持高位，而兩家公司之間的比較將主導各自的財務軌跡。</p>
<p>追逐 動量股票 是一種伴隨巨大風險的策略。特斯拉當前的估值已經包含了相當大的樂觀情緒。將 IPO 引發的狂熱加入到這個方程中，只會增加投資者在股價處於情緒驅動的高峰時購買股票的機會，而不是在更好地支持業務進展的估值下購買。</p>
<p>SpaceX 和特斯拉都處於 AI 與基礎設施的交匯點，它們真正的技術雄心確實具有長期潛力。然而，是否能夠從這裏提供可持續的投資論點將取決於執行。</p>
<p>有意投資者需要在努力區分引人入勝的故事與真實且持續的執行和適當的估值特徵時保持警惕。</p>
<p>在一個被宏大的人工智能主題所吸引的市場中，耐心和選擇性將比依賴於 “更大的傻瓜” 的存在更具回報。雖然隨着時間的推移，馬斯克的各種事業可能會迎來機遇，但追逐首次公開募股後即刻動量的投資者應記住，受炒作驅動的上漲總是伴隨着動盪，而非可預測性。</p>

特斯拉

1.25 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

TESL

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Leverage Shares

<p>《華爾街日報》報道，SpaceX 計劃於 6 月 12 日進行首次公開募股（IPO），這可能會因埃隆·馬斯克的影響力而提升特斯拉的股價。儘管興奮情緒可能會推動特斯拉的短期收益，但其核心業務面臨挑戰，包括競爭加劇和利潤率下降。投資者被提醒不要追逐市場熱潮，因為這兩家公司的估值在很大程度上依賴於樂觀的敍述，而非可持續的業績</p>

<p>According to <em>The Wall Street Journal</em>, Elon Musk's SpaceX is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) date of June 12. Should SpaceX achieve or even surpass its target IPO valuation of $2 trillion, I think that the tailwind of that success will give a boost to shares of Musk's other major business -- <strong>Tesla</strong>( TSLA +3.28%). My logic is straightforward: Musk's proven ability to generate excitement and bullish momentum could easily spill over to his other companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據《華爾街日報》，埃隆·馬斯克的 SpaceX 正準備在 6 月 12 日進行首次公開募股（IPO）。如果 SpaceX 能夠實現或甚至超過其目標 IPO 估值 2 萬億美元，我認為這一成功的順風將推動馬斯克其他主要業務——<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA +3.28%）的股價。我的邏輯很簡單：馬斯克在激發興奮和牛市動能方面的能力很可能會溢出到他的其他公司。</p>
</div><p>While short-term enthusiasm may indeed lift Tesla stock, a closer look at the company reveals the SpaceX IPO to be yet another chapter in a tale of narrative-driven trading rather than a prudent reflection of sustainable business value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然短期的熱情確實可能提升特斯拉的股價，但仔細觀察公司會發現，SpaceX 的 IPO 只是敍事驅動交易故事中的又一章，而不是對可持續商業價值的明智反映。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzA5MDQvdGVzbGEtbG9nby13aXRoLWN5YmVyY2FiLWluLWJhY2tncm91bmQucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA" alt="Tesla logo with robotaxi prototype in background." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F870904%2Ftesla-logo-with-cybercab-in-background.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>How the SpaceX IPO could amplify Tesla stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>SpaceX IPO 如何放大特斯拉股價</h2>
</div><p>Musk has a talent for building infectious optimism around ambitious technological visions. His new product unveilings, software updates, and grand declarations about the future have historically triggered rallies in Tesla stock. However, such gains are typically followed by harsh corrections when the company fails to deliver on the timelines it promises, or when investor expectations shift. Volatility is a defining feature of Tesla stock, and the shares often move based on sentiment rather than on its operational results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>馬斯克在圍繞雄心勃勃的技術願景構建感染性樂觀方面有着獨特的才能。他的新產品發佈、軟件更新以及關於未來的宏偉宣言歷來會引發特斯拉股價的上漲。然而，當公司未能按承諾的時間表交付時，或當投資者的預期發生變化時，這些漲幅通常會伴隨嚴厲的回調。波動性是特斯拉股票的一個顯著特徵，股價往往基於情緒而非其運營結果而波動。</p>
</div><p>I think it's highly likely that a public SpaceX will trade in a similar fashion. Its achievements across reusable rockets and Starlink's satellite internet, combined with lofty ambitions at the intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and space exploration, lend themselves to a compelling story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為，公開上市的 SpaceX 很可能會以類似的方式交易。它在可重複使用火箭和 Starlink 衞星互聯網方面的成就，加上在人工智能（AI）和太空探索交匯處的宏偉抱負，構成了一個引人入勝的故事。</p>
</div><p>Success in new rocket launches or breakthroughs in Starship development may spark buying frenzies among retail and institutional investors. Conversely, the inevitable production delays, test failures, or regulatory challenges that come with attempts to make progress in the aerospace industry create the potential for sharp downturns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新火箭發射的成功或星際飛船開發的突破可能會引發零售和機構投資者的購買狂潮。相反，航空航天行業進展過程中不可避免的生產延遲、測試失敗或監管挑戰則可能導致劇烈的下跌。</p>
</div><p>Since Musk leads both SpaceX and Tesla, positive developments at SpaceX naturally bolster Tesla's image. Meanwhile, any turbulence at either company will likely put pressure on the shares of the other.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於馬斯克同時領導 SpaceX 和特斯拉，SpaceX 的積極發展自然會提升特斯拉的形象。同時，任何一家公司出現的動盪都可能對另一家公司的股價施加壓力。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展開</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Tesla Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FTSLA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
</div><p>Tesla</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(3.28%) $13.27</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(3.28%) $13.27</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$417.38</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$417.38</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$1.6T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1.6 萬億</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$406.41 - $417.42</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$406.41 - $417.42</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$273.21 - $498.83</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$273.21 - $498.83</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>2.3M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>230 萬</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>62M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>6200 萬</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>19.07%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>19.07%</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's story is strong, but the core business is weakening</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的故事很強，但核心業務正在減弱</h2>
</div><p>Tesla's operating performance over the last couple of years paints a mixed picture. The electric vehicles (EVs) that comprise the core of its business face intensifying competition overseas, which has put pressure on its prices and led to variable demand in major markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉在過去幾年的運營表現呈現出複雜的局面。構成其核心業務的電動汽車（EV）在海外面臨日益激烈的競爭，這給其價格帶來了壓力，並導致主要市場的需求波動。</p>
</div><p>After years of revenue growth, its top line has trended sideways over the past three years or so, with periods of falling sales, and its profit margin, which just a few years ago was in double digits, is down to about 4%. At the same time, Tesla's energy storage business has shown encouraging momentum with growing deployments and consistent profitability -- offering a meaningful source of sales diversification.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經過多年的收入增長，其收入在過去三年左右趨於平穩，銷售額出現下降，幾年前仍在兩位數的利潤率現已降至約 4%。與此同時，特斯拉的能源儲存業務顯示出令人鼓舞的勢頭，部署量不斷增長且持續盈利——為銷售多樣化提供了重要來源。</p>
</div><p>Despite these realities, Tesla's valuation reflects investors' aggressively optimistic expectations for future breakthroughs in autonomous driving and humanoid robotics. The company's $1.5 trillion market cap and its triple-digit price-to-earnings ratio assume that it will achieve enormous levels of AI-driven success in areas that remain unproven at scale. Production timelines, the need to win regulatory approvals for advanced driver assistance systems, and the capital intensity required for all of these new initiatives represent pressure points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管存在這些現實，特斯拉的估值反映了投資者對未來在自動駕駛和類人機器人領域突破的激進樂觀預期。該公司的 1.5 萬億美元市值和三位數的市盈率假設其將在尚未大規模驗證的領域實現巨大的 AI 驅動成功。生產時間表、獲得 先進駕駛輔助系統的監管批准 的必要性，以及所有這些新舉措所需的資本密集度都構成了壓力點。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>TSLA PS Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA PS 比率 數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Verdict: Chasing narrative-driven momentum is dangerous</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>結論：追逐敍事驅動的動量是危險的</h2>
</div><p>The SpaceX IPO has the potential to generate a burst of excitement around Tesla. Musk's dual leadership, the supposed AI tailwinds, and the sheer scale of the offering are a perfect recipe for bullish sentiment. My suspicion is that volatility in both SpaceX and Tesla stock will remain high, while comparisons between the two companies will dominate their respective financial trajectories.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SpaceX IPO 有潛力在特斯拉周圍產生一陣興奮。馬斯克的雙重領導、所謂的 AI 順風以及發行規模的龐大都是形成樂觀情緒的完美配方。我懷疑 SpaceX 和特斯拉股票的波動性將保持高位，而兩家公司之間的比較將主導各自的財務軌跡。</p>
</div><p>Chasing momentum stocks is a strategy that comes with outsize risks. Tesla's current valuation already incorporates substantial optimism. Adding IPO-fueled euphoria to the equation only increases investors' chances of buying the stock when it's trading at an emotion-driven peak rather than at a valuation that's better supported by the progress the business is making.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>追逐 動量股票 是一種伴隨巨大風險的策略。特斯拉當前的估值已經包含了相當大的樂觀情緒。將 IPO 引發的狂熱加入到這個方程中，只會增加投資者在股價處於情緒驅動的高峰時購買股票的機會，而不是在更好地支持業務進展的估值下購買。</p>
</div><p>Both SpaceX and Tesla sit at the intersection of AI and infrastructure, and their genuine technological ambitions do have long-term potential. However, whether either can offer a sustainable investment thesis from here will hinge on execution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SpaceX 和特斯拉都處於 AI 與基礎設施的交匯點，它們真正的技術雄心確實具有長期潛力。然而，是否能夠從這裏提供可持續的投資論點將取決於執行。</p>
</div><p>Interested investors will need to be vigilant in their efforts to distinguish compelling stories from real and consistent execution and appropriate valuation profiles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有意投資者需要在努力區分引人入勝的故事與真實且持續的執行和適當的估值特徵時保持警惕。</p>
</div><p>In a market captivated by grand AI themes, patience and selectivity will prove more rewarding than counting on the existence of a &#34; greater fool.&#34; While the stars could align for Musk's various ventures over time, investors who chase immediate post-IPO momentum should remember that hype-driven rallies always come with turbulence rather than predictability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一個被宏大的人工智能主題所吸引的市場中，耐心和選擇性將比依賴於 “更大的傻瓜” 的存在更具回報。雖然隨着時間的推移，馬斯克的各種事業可能會迎來機遇，但追逐首次公開募股後即刻動量的投資者應記住，受炒作驅動的上漲總是伴隨着動盪，而非可預測性。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Tesla Stock Could Go Parabolic After June 12. Here's Why.

- SpaceX 計劃於 6 月 12 日上市，可能提振特斯拉股價。  
- 然而，特斯拉的基本面面臨競爭壓力和收益波動。  
- 投資者需警惕 IPO 帶來的情緒波動。

預測：特斯拉的股票可能會在 6 月 12 日之後呈現拋物線式的上漲。以下是原因