<p>摩根士丹利表示，儘管近期面臨能源衝擊的逆風，但日本的再通脹故事在結構上依然穩固，預計今年名義 GDP 將出現下滑，之後在 2026 年反彈至 4% 以上。</p>
<p><strong>摘要：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>由於能源衝擊導致的貿易條件損失，日本的名義 GDP 增長預計今年將略微轉為負值，預計在 2026 年恢復至 4% 以上</li>
<li>4 月份數據中，生產者價格同比上漲 4.9%，預計由於油價上漲和與北美自貿協定相關的建築、塑料和工業溶劑供應中斷，未來還會進一步上漲</li>
<li>政府的能源補貼和戰略石油儲備迄今為止已使日本家庭免受能源成本上漲的直接影響</li>
<li>結構性勞動力短缺預計將維持穩健的工資增長，特別是在年輕工人中，支持中期內的國內消費</li>
<li>節省勞動力的投資和政府支持的國內資本支出計劃被認為將使商業投資在外部逆風中保持韌性</li>
<li>摩根士丹利設定的基礎案例 TOPIX 目標為 4300 點，認為日本在亞洲股票配置中優於更廣泛的新興市場</li>
<li>銀行跟蹤的每個消費子行業都在經歷盈利下調，而升級主要集中在材料、半導體、科技硬件和國防資本貨物上</li>
</ul>
<p>摩根士丹利的宏觀和股票團隊重申了他們對日本的看漲結構性觀點，即使全球能源衝擊帶來了他們所描述的對經濟的重大但可控的短期偏離。</p>
<p>在摩根士丹利與三菱 UFJ 聯合舉辦的日本峯會上，首席日本經濟學家山口隆承認，由於高油價帶來的貿易條件損失，名義 GDP 增長今年可能略微轉為負值。這個打擊是實實在在的，但山口明確表示，這並不改變基本的軌跡。他預計明年名義 GDP 增長將恢復至 4% 以上，並認為再通脹理論的結構性支柱依然穩固。</p>
<p>這些支柱集中在日本的勞動力市場。勞動力的結構性短缺繼續推動工資增長，儘管短期內增速可能會有所放緩，但山口預計，特別是在年輕員工中，基本工資的增長將持續。推動工資上漲的緊張局勢也促使公司加快對節省勞動力技術的投資，這種動態，加上政府吸引國內資本支出的舉措，預計將使商業投資在逆風中保持韌性。</p>
<p>然而，能源衝擊在生產者價格中顯現出來。4 月份數據顯示，同比上漲 4.9%，銀行預計這一數字將進一步上升，不僅受到油價的推動，還受到與北美自貿協定相關的建築材料、塑料產品和工業溶劑的供應中斷的影響。政府補貼和日本相對較深的戰略石油儲備迄今為止吸收了大部分面向消費者的影響，但財政負擔正在加重。</p>
<p>在股票方面，首席亞洲及新興市場股票策略師喬納森·加納提出了將日本作為任何以亞洲為重點投資組合的核心持有的理由。銀行的 TOPIX 基礎案例目標為 4300 點，較發佈時約有 12% 的上漲空間，相較於新興市場目標約 8% 的隱含收益更具吸引力。更重要的是，加納認為，風險調整後的偏向有利於日本：如果從新興市場指數中剔除韓國和台灣，整體市場實際上沒有盈利增長。</p>
<p>日本內部的行業情況 sharply bifurcated。銀行跟蹤的每個消費子細分市場都在經歷盈利下調，而材料、半導體、科技硬件和國防資本貨物則在獲得升級。加納形容修正的分散程度與他之前觀察到的任何情況都不同，並指出這至少對消費者的韌性持久性提出了一些質疑，如果生產者價格通脹繼續傳導。</p>
<p>銀行的四個核心主題研究框架，涵蓋多極世界、人工智能和技術擴散、能源的未來以及社會變革，約佔摩根士丹利日本股票覆蓋範圍的 75%，這種主題曝光的集中度，加納認為比任何其他主要市場都更具優勢。歐洲缺乏有意義的人工智能和技術擴散受益者，而美國則承載着更重的傳統軟件、服務和消費暴露。相比之下，日本在資本支出超級週期的交匯點上，能夠與其他市場相比，具有獨特的優勢。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>日本股票在摩根士丹利的年中展望中被視為首選的亞洲配置，銀行的 4300 點 TOPIX 目標意味着從發佈時起約有 12% 的上漲空間。資本支出超級週期理論支撐了這一偏好，材料、半導體、科技硬件和國防資本貨物都在經歷盈利升級，而面向消費者的行業則面臨廣泛的下調壓力。能源衝擊被視為短期拖累，而非結構性威脅，儘管生產者價格上漲和與北美自貿協定相關的供應中斷為名義 GDP 的恢復時間表增加了複雜性。</p>

摩根士丹利

2 倍做空日元 ETF - ProShares

<p>摩根士丹利認為，儘管短期內能源衝擊影響，日本的再通脹敍事依然完好，預測今年名義 GDP 將略微下降，隨後在 2026 年恢復至超過 4%。4 月份生產者價格同比上漲 4.9%，受到油價和供應中斷的影響。該銀行偏好日本的股票配置，設定 TOPIX 目標為 4,300，意味着有 12% 的上漲空間。儘管消費領域面臨下調，但材料和科技領域則出現上調，能源衝擊被視為暫時性挫折，而非長期威脅</p>

<p>Morgan Stanley says Japan's reflation story remains structurally intact despite near-term energy shock headwinds, forecasting a dip in nominal GDP this year before a rebound above 4% in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利表示，儘管近期面臨能源衝擊的逆風，但日本的再通脹故事在結構上依然穩固，預計今年名義 GDP 將出現下滑，之後在 2026 年反彈至 4% 以上。</p>
</div><p><strong>Summary:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>摘要：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>Japan's nominal GDP growth is expected to turn slightly negative this year due to terms-of-trade losses from the energy shock, before recovering to above 4% in 2026</li>
<li>Producer prices jumped 4.9% year-on-year in April data, with further increases expected from higher oil costs and NAFTA-related supply disruptions in construction, plastics, and industrial solvents</li>
<li>Government energy subsidies and strategic oil reserves have so far shielded Japanese households from the direct impact of higher energy costs</li>
<li>A structural labour shortage is expected to sustain solid wage growth, particularly among younger workers, supporting domestic consumption over the medium term</li>
<li>Labour-saving investment and government-backed domestic CapEx initiatives are seen keeping business investment resilient despite the external headwinds</li>
<li>Morgan Stanley sets a base case TOPIX target of 4,300, with Japan preferred over broader emerging markets for Asia equity allocation</li>
<li>Every consumer sub-sector tracked by the bank is seeing earnings downgrades, while upgrades are concentrated in materials, semis, tech hardware, and defence capital goods</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>由於能源衝擊導致的貿易條件損失，日本的名義 GDP 增長預計今年將略微轉為負值，預計在 2026 年恢復至 4% 以上</li>
<li>4 月份數據中，生產者價格同比上漲 4.9%，預計由於油價上漲和與北美自貿協定相關的建築、塑料和工業溶劑供應中斷，未來還會進一步上漲</li>
<li>政府的能源補貼和戰略石油儲備迄今為止已使日本家庭免受能源成本上漲的直接影響</li>
<li>結構性勞動力短缺預計將維持穩健的工資增長，特別是在年輕工人中，支持中期內的國內消費</li>
<li>節省勞動力的投資和政府支持的國內資本支出計劃被認為將使商業投資在外部逆風中保持韌性</li>
<li>摩根士丹利設定的基礎案例 TOPIX 目標為 4300 點，認為日本在亞洲股票配置中優於更廣泛的新興市場</li>
<li>銀行跟蹤的每個消費子行業都在經歷盈利下調，而升級主要集中在材料、半導體、科技硬件和國防資本貨物上</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley's macro and equity teams have reaffirmed their bullish structural case for Japan even as the global energy shock introduces what they describe as a meaningful but manageable short-term detour for the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的宏觀和股票團隊重申了他們對日本的看漲結構性觀點，即使全球能源衝擊帶來了他們所描述的對經濟的重大但可控的短期偏離。</p>
</div><p>Speaking at a joint Morgan Stanley and MUFG Japan Summit, Chief Japan Economist Takeshi Yamaguchi acknowledged that nominal GDP growth is likely to turn slightly negative this year, dragged lower by the terms-of-trade losses that come with elevated oil prices. The hit is real, but Yamaguchi was clear that it does not alter the underlying trajectory. A recovery to above 4 percent nominal GDP growth is pencilled in for next year, and the structural pillars of the reflation thesis remain, in his view, firmly in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在摩根士丹利與三菱 UFJ 聯合舉辦的日本峯會上，首席日本經濟學家山口隆承認，由於高油價帶來的貿易條件損失，名義 GDP 增長今年可能略微轉為負值。這個打擊是實實在在的，但山口明確表示，這並不改變基本的軌跡。他預計明年名義 GDP 增長將恢復至 4% 以上，並認為再通脹理論的結構性支柱依然穩固。</p>
</div><p>Those pillars are centred on Japan's labour market. A structural shortage of workers continues to drive wage growth, and while the pace may moderate somewhat in the near term, Yamaguchi expects solid base pay increases to continue, particularly among younger employees. The same tightness that is pushing wages higher is also compelling companies to accelerate investment in labour-saving technology, a dynamic that, combined with government initiatives to attract domestic capital spending, is expected to keep business investment resilient through the headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些支柱集中在日本的勞動力市場。勞動力的結構性短缺繼續推動工資增長，儘管短期內增速可能會有所放緩，但山口預計，特別是在年輕員工中，基本工資的增長將持續。推動工資上漲的緊張局勢也促使公司加快對節省勞動力技術的投資，這種動態，加上政府吸引國內資本支出的舉措，預計將使商業投資在逆風中保持韌性。</p>
</div><p>The energy shock is, however, showing up in producer prices. April data revealed a 4.9 percent year-on-year increase, and the bank expects that figure to climb further, driven not only by oil costs but also by supply disruptions linked to NAFTA-related dislocations across construction materials, plastic products, and industrial solvents. Government subsidies and Japan's relatively deep strategic oil reserves have so far absorbed much of the consumer-facing impact, but the fiscal burden is building.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，能源衝擊在生產者價格中顯現出來。4 月份數據顯示，同比上漲 4.9%，銀行預計這一數字將進一步上升，不僅受到油價的推動，還受到與北美自貿協定相關的建築材料、塑料產品和工業溶劑的供應中斷的影響。政府補貼和日本相對較深的戰略石油儲備迄今為止吸收了大部分面向消費者的影響，但財政負擔正在加重。</p>
</div><p>On equities, Chief Asia and EM Equity Strategist Jonathan Garner made the case for Japan as the core holding in any Asia-focused portfolio. The bank's TOPIX base case target of 4,300 represents around 12 percent upside from the time of publication, comparing favourably with the approximately 8 percent implied by the EM target. More importantly, Garner argued, the risk-adjusted skew favours Japan: strip out Korea and Taiwan from the EM index, and there is effectively no earnings growth in the broader complex right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股票方面，首席亞洲及新興市場股票策略師喬納森·加納提出了將日本作為任何以亞洲為重點投資組合的核心持有的理由。銀行的 TOPIX 基礎案例目標為 4300 點，較發佈時約有 12% 的上漲空間，相較於新興市場目標約 8% 的隱含收益更具吸引力。更重要的是，加納認為，風險調整後的偏向有利於日本：如果從新興市場指數中剔除韓國和台灣，整體市場實際上沒有盈利增長。</p>
</div><p>The sectoral picture inside Japan is sharply bifurcated. Every consumer sub-segment the bank tracks is seeing earnings downgrades, while upgrades are flowing into materials, semiconductors, tech hardware, and defence capital goods. Garner described the degree of dispersion in revisions as unlike anything he has previously observed, and noted it raises at least some questions about the durability of consumer resilience if producer price inflation continues to feed through.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本內部的行業情況 sharply bifurcated。銀行跟蹤的每個消費子細分市場都在經歷盈利下調，而材料、半導體、科技硬件和國防資本貨物則在獲得升級。加納形容修正的分散程度與他之前觀察到的任何情況都不同，並指出這至少對消費者的韌性持久性提出了一些質疑，如果生產者價格通脹繼續傳導。</p>
</div><p>The bank's four core thematic research frameworks, covering the multipolar world, AI and technology diffusion, the future of energy, and societal shifts, map onto roughly 75 percent of Morgan Stanley's Japan equity coverage by stock count, a concentration of thematic exposure that Garner argued is more advantageous than in any other major market. Europe lacks meaningful AI and tech diffusion beneficiaries upstream, while the US carries heavier legacy software, services, and consumer exposure. Japan, by contrast, sits at the intersection of the CapEx supercycle in a way that few other markets can match.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銀行的四個核心主題研究框架，涵蓋多極世界、人工智能和技術擴散、能源的未來以及社會變革，約佔摩根士丹利日本股票覆蓋範圍的 75%，這種主題曝光的集中度，加納認為比任何其他主要市場都更具優勢。歐洲缺乏有意義的人工智能和技術擴散受益者，而美國則承載着更重的傳統軟件、服務和消費暴露。相比之下，日本在資本支出超級週期的交匯點上，能夠與其他市場相比，具有獨特的優勢。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>Japanese equities are positioned as the preferred Asian allocation in Morgan Stanley's mid-year outlook, with the bank's 4,300 TOPIX target implying around 12 percent upside from publication. The CapEx supercycle thesis underpins the preference, with materials, semiconductors, tech hardware, and defence capital goods all seeing earnings upgrades, while consumer-facing sectors face broad downgrade pressure. The energy shock is seen as a near-term drag rather than a structural threat, though rising producer prices and NAFTA-related supply disruptions add complexity to the timeline for nominal GDP recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本股票在摩根士丹利的年中展望中被視為首選的亞洲配置，銀行的 4300 點 TOPIX 目標意味着從發佈時起約有 12% 的上漲空間。資本支出超級週期理論支撐了這一偏好，材料、半導體、科技硬件和國防資本貨物都在經歷盈利升級，而面向消費者的行業則面臨廣泛的下調壓力。能源衝擊被視為短期拖累，而非結構性威脅，儘管生產者價格上漲和與北美自貿協定相關的供應中斷為名義 GDP 的恢復時間表增加了複雜性。</p>
</div>

Morgan Stanley sees Japan reflation intact despite energy shock short-term drag

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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.

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摩根士丹利認為，儘管短期內受到能源衝擊的拖累，日本的再通脹趨勢仍然保持不變