<p>在科技投資的世界中，鮮有公司能夠像 <strong>蘋果</strong>( AAPL +0.23%) 在 21 世紀頭二十年所取得的文化和財務主導地位。 從 iPod 到 iPhone，它推出了一系列令人矚目的必備設備，重新定義了整個硬件類別。</p>
<p>然而，一旦智能手機市場成熟，競爭對手的產品變得具有競爭力，蘋果的超高速增長階段讓位於由服務、生態系統鎖定和 股票回購 支撐的更為穩健的擴張。</p>
<p>今天，我認為 <strong>英偉達</strong>( NVDA +0.05%) 可能正在遵循類似的劇本。在經歷了由人工智能（AI）崛起推動的數年爆炸性增長後，這家圖形芯片領導者是否開始像一個成熟的蘋果？</p>
<p>它們之間的相似之處令人矚目——產品主導地位之後是估值壓縮和持續的股票回購。儘管市場越來越將英偉達定價為一家穩定的 AI 基礎設施企業，但其在數據中心之外尚未開發的廣泛機會表明，它距離蘋果在史蒂夫·喬布斯時代之後達到的創新後高原仍然遙遠。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MTYwMS9udmlkaWEtaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLXdpdGgtbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24taW4tZnJvbnQtMjQucG5nAjZ3PTM4NDACNm9wPXJlc2l6ZQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MTYwMS9udmlkaWEtaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLXdpdGgtbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24taW4tZnJvbnQtMjQucG5nAjZ3PTM4NDACNm9wPXJlc2l6ZQ"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：英偉達。</p>
<h2>蘋果從產品創新者到財務工程師的轉變</h2>
<p>從 2000 年代初到 2010 年代中期，蘋果以其硬件產品為定義。但隨着智能手機市場的飽和和更換週期的延長，蘋果的增長放緩。為了避免收入停滯，蘋果加大了在服務領域的努力——增強了 App Store、iCloud 和 Apple Pay，這幫助加深了其生態系統的護城河。</p>
<p>來自 服務 的經常性收入提供了一定的穩定性，即使公司的硬件增長有所減緩。然而，在表面之下，喬布斯時代之後，蘋果正在經歷一場根本性的轉變。硬件創新變得更加稀少——AirPods 是一個顯著的例外。</p>
<p>隨着新產品發佈的放緩，蘋果轉向了一項激進的股票回購計劃。通過系統性地減少其股份數量，公司實際上實現了強勁的每股收益（EPS）增長，即使頭條收入增長温和。</p>
<p></p>
<p>AAPL 股票回購（年度） 數據由 YCharts.</p>
<h2>英偉達的第一道裂縫開始顯現了嗎？</h2>
<p>在 2022 年至 2025 年間，英偉達的 GPU 成為訓練和推理 AI 工作負載不可或缺的 挖掘工具。公司的數據中心收入激增，毛利率擴大，股票為那些早期買入並持有的人帶來了世代回報。</p>
<p>然而，近一年來，英偉達股票的上漲軌跡相比其他 AI 芯片股票顯得更加温和。在 AI 熱潮早期階段所見的爆炸性 估值擴張 開始收縮，即使公司繼續交出出色的季度業績。</p>
<p>在多年將英偉達視為 AI 超級週期的超高速受益者後，許多投資者現在似乎將這家公司框定為一家成熟的基礎設施企業——在其核心市場中佔據主導地位，但越來越受到大數法則的限制。</p>
<p></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻） 數據由 YCharts.</p>
<p>與蘋果類似，英偉達也進行了多次股票回購。我認為公司最新的 $800 億回購 授權清楚地表明管理層認為股票被低估。</p>
<h2>英偉達不僅僅是一家數據中心業務嗎？</h2>
<p>英偉達處於幾個尚未達到頂峯的長期趨勢的交匯點。公司與 <strong>英特爾</strong> 的 CPU 雄心、與 諾基亞 的新網絡合作，以及與設備供應商如 <strong>Lumentum</strong> 和 <strong>Coherent</strong> 的戰略合作代表了幾個新的可尋址市場。</p>
<p>與此同時，新興的雲計算、自動駕駛領域的崛起，以及在機器人和 太空探索 方面的嘗試進一步擴展了公司的機會。</p>
<p>這些舉措目前並未對英偉達的財務產生顯著影響。公司的業績仍然主要由數據中心 GPU 銷售驅動——我還要補充的是，這一銷售正在再次加速。</p>
<p>展開</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9hcnQvY29tcGFueWxvZ29zL21hcmsvTlZEQS5wbmcCNnc9MTI4AjZvcD1yZXNpemU?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="英偉達股票報價" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9hcnQvY29tcGFueWxvZ29zL21hcmsvTlZEQS5wbmcCNnc9MTI4AjZvcD1yZXNpemU"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<p>英偉達</p>
<p>今日變動</p>
<p>(0.05%) $0.10</p>
<p>當前價格</p>
<p>$212.70</p>
<h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$5.1 萬億</p>
<p>日內區間</p>
<p>$211.19 - $214.28</p>
<p>52 周區間</p>
<p>$132.92 - $236.54</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>1.4 百萬</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>164.7 百萬</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>74.15%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.02%</p>
<p>我認為英偉達當前的估值特徵低估了這些新的順風因素。通過將其視為一家成熟的 AI 企業——就像蘋果被視為一家成熟的消費科技平台一樣——投資者可能忽視了公司多元化路線圖中藴含的所有選擇性。</p>
<p>雖然股票回購為每股收益提供了短期支持，但這並不是英偉達的主要故事。這裏的主要主題是選擇權的規模，蘋果在其硬件巔峯時期根本沒有享受過。因此，我認為英偉達不會變成下一個蘋果。該公司仍然是人工智能計算時代的重要支柱，擁有眾多增長動力，遠遠超出任何單一產品類別。</p>

英偉達

蘋果

高科技指數 ETF - SPDR

<p>這篇文章將英偉達與蘋果進行了比較，暗示英偉達可能正進入一個類似於蘋果在超高速增長後時代的成熟階段。儘管英偉達因人工智能實現了爆炸性增長，但其股票表現最近已趨於穩定，這使得人們將其視為一家成熟的企業。儘管進行了股票回購並且數據中心銷售強勁，英偉達的未來增長潛力仍然與各種新興市場息息相關，這表明它不僅僅是一家數據中心公司。作者認為，英偉達多樣化的機會使其與蘋果的發展軌跡有所不同</p>

<p>In the world of technology investing, few companies have commanded the level of cultural and financial dominance that <strong>Apple</strong>( AAPL +0.23%) achieved during the first two decades of the 21st century. From the iPod to the iPhone, it delivered an impressive run of must-have devices that redefined entire hardware categories.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在科技投資的世界中，鮮有公司能夠像 <strong>蘋果</strong>( AAPL +0.23%) 在 21 世紀頭二十年所取得的文化和財務主導地位。 從 iPod 到 iPhone，它推出了一系列令人矚目的必備設備，重新定義了整個硬件類別。</p>
</div><p>Yet once the smartphone market matured and rival products became competitive, Apple's hypergrowth phase gave way to a more measured expansion supported by services, ecosystem lock-in, and share repurchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，一旦智能手機市場成熟，競爭對手的產品變得具有競爭力，蘋果的超高速增長階段讓位於由服務、生態系統鎖定和 股票回購 支撐的更為穩健的擴張。</p>
</div><p>Today, I think <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +0.05%) may be following a similar script. After years of explosive gains driven by the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), is the graphics-chip leader starting to resemble a maturing Apple?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，我認為 <strong>英偉達</strong>( NVDA +0.05%) 可能正在遵循類似的劇本。在經歷了由人工智能（AI）崛起推動的數年爆炸性增長後，這家圖形芯片領導者是否開始像一個成熟的蘋果？</p>
</div><p>The parallels between them are striking -- product dominance followed by valuation compression and continuous stock buybacks. While the market increasingly prices Nvidia as a steady AI infrastructure business, the breadth of its untapped opportunities beyond data centers suggests it remains far from the post-innovation plateau that Apple reached after the Steve Jobs era.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它們之間的相似之處令人矚目——產品主導地位之後是估值壓縮和持續的股票回購。儘管市場越來越將英偉達定價為一家穩定的 AI 基礎設施企業，但其在數據中心之外尚未開發的廣泛機會表明，它距離蘋果在史蒂夫·喬布斯時代之後達到的創新後高原仍然遙遠。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzE2MDEvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy13aXRoLW52aWRpYS1zaWduLWluLWZyb250LTI0LnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="Nvidia headquarters with logo on a black sign out front." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F871601%2Fnvidia-headquarters-with-nvidia-sign-in-front-24.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：英偉達。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's transition from product innovator to financial engineer</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果從產品創新者到財務工程師的轉變</h2>
</div><p>From the early 2000s through the mid-2010s, Apple was defined by its hardware products. But as the smartphone market grew saturated and replacement cycles lengthened, Apple's growth slowed. Rather than allowing revenues to stagnate, Apple intensified its efforts in the services arena -- bolstering App Store, iCloud, and Apple Pay -- which helped deepen its ecosystem moat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 2000 年代初到 2010 年代中期，蘋果以其硬件產品為定義。但隨着智能手機市場的飽和和更換週期的延長，蘋果的增長放緩。為了避免收入停滯，蘋果加大了在服務領域的努力——增強了 App Store、iCloud 和 Apple Pay，這幫助加深了其生態系統的護城河。</p>
</div><p>Recurring revenue from services provided a level of stability even as the company's hardware growth moderated. Yet beneath the surface, a fundamental shift was making its way through Apple in the post-Jobs era. Hardware innovations became much more rare -- AirPods being a notable exception.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來自 服務 的經常性收入提供了一定的穩定性，即使公司的硬件增長有所減緩。然而，在表面之下，喬布斯時代之後，蘋果正在經歷一場根本性的轉變。硬件創新變得更加稀少——AirPods 是一個顯著的例外。</p>
</div><p>As new product launches slowed, Apple turned to an aggressive stock-buyback program. By systematically reducing its share count, the company essentially engineered robust earnings-per-share (EPS) growth even though headline revenue growth was modest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着新產品發佈的放緩，蘋果轉向了一項激進的股票回購計劃。通過系統性地減少其股份數量，公司實際上實現了強勁的每股收益（EPS）增長，即使頭條收入增長温和。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>AAPL Stock Buyback (Annual) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 股票回購（年度） 數據由 YCharts.</p>
</div><h2>Are the first cracks beginning to show for Nvidia?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達的第一道裂縫開始顯現了嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Between 2022 and 2025, Nvidia's GPUs became the indispensable pick-and-shovel hardware for training and inferencing AI workloads. The company's data center revenue exploded, its gross margin expanded, and the stock delivered generational returns for those who bought early and held on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 年至 2025 年間，英偉達的 GPU 成為訓練和推理 AI 工作負載不可或缺的 挖掘工具。公司的數據中心收入激增，毛利率擴大，股票為那些早期買入並持有的人帶來了世代回報。</p>
</div><p>Yet for almost a year now, the upward trajectory of Nvidia stock has been more muted compared to other AI chip stocks. The explosive valuation expansion witnessed during the early phases of the AI boom has started to compress, even as the company continues delivering outstanding quarterly results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，近一年來，英偉達股票的上漲軌跡相比其他 AI 芯片股票顯得更加温和。在 AI 熱潮早期階段所見的爆炸性 估值擴張 開始收縮，即使公司繼續交出出色的季度業績。</p>
</div><p>After years of treating Nvidia as a hypergrowth beneficiary of the AI supercycle, many investors now appear to be framing the company as a maturing infrastructure business -- dominant in its core market, but increasingly hemmed in by the law of large numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在多年將英偉達視為 AI 超級週期的超高速受益者後，許多投資者現在似乎將這家公司框定為一家成熟的基礎設施企業——在其核心市場中佔據主導地位，但越來越受到大數法則的限制。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻） 數據由 YCharts.</p>
</div><p>Like Apple, Nvidia has also employed a series of share repurchases. I think the company's latest $80 billion buyback authorization is a clear signal that management believes shares are undervalued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與蘋果類似，英偉達也進行了多次股票回購。我認為公司最新的 $800 億回購 授權清楚地表明管理層認為股票被低估。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nvidia more than just a data center business?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達不僅僅是一家數據中心業務嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia sits at the intersection of several secular waves that are yet to crest. The company's CPU ambitions with <strong>Intel</strong>, its new networking partnership with Nokia, and its strategic collaborations with equipment providers such as <strong>Lumentum</strong> and <strong>Coherent</strong> represent several new addressable markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達處於幾個尚未達到頂峯的長期趨勢的交匯點。公司與 <strong>英特爾</strong> 的 CPU 雄心、與 諾基亞 的新網絡合作，以及與設備供應商如 <strong>Lumentum</strong> 和 <strong>Coherent</strong> 的戰略合作代表了幾個新的可尋址市場。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the rise of neoclouds, an emerging runway in the autonomous driving space, and forays into robotics and space exploration further expand the company's opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，新興的雲計算、自動駕駛領域的崛起，以及在機器人和 太空探索 方面的嘗試進一步擴展了公司的機會。</p>
</div><p>None of these initiatives is meaningfully moving the financial needle for Nvidia today. The company's results are still overwhelmingly driven by data center GPU sales -- which, might I add, are accelerating again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些舉措目前並未對英偉達的財務產生顯著影響。公司的業績仍然主要由數據中心 GPU 銷售驅動——我還要補充的是，這一銷售正在再次加速。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展開</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Nvidia Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FNVDA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(0.05%) $0.10</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(0.05%) $0.10</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$212.70</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$212.70</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$5.1T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$5.1 萬億</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$211.19 - $214.28</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$211.19 - $214.28</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$132.92 - $236.54</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$132.92 - $236.54</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>1.4M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1.4 百萬</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>164.7M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>164.7 百萬</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>74.15%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>74.15%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.02%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.02%</p>
</div><p>I think Nvidia's current valuation profile discounts these new tailwinds. By treating it as a maturing AI play -- much as Apple was perceived as a maturing consumer tech platform -- investors may be overlooking all of the optionality embedded in the company's diversified roadmap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為英偉達當前的估值特徵低估了這些新的順風因素。通過將其視為一家成熟的 AI 企業——就像蘋果被視為一家成熟的消費科技平台一樣——投資者可能忽視了公司多元化路線圖中藴含的所有選擇性。</p>
</div><p>While stock buybacks provide short-term support to earnings per share, they are not Nvidia's primary story. The main theme here is optionality on a scale that Apple simply never enjoyed after its hardware peak. For these reasons, I do not think Nvidia is turning into the next Apple. The company is still very much a pillar of the AI computing era, with numerous growth vectors that extend well beyond any single product category.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然股票回購為每股收益提供了短期支持，但這並不是英偉達的主要故事。這裏的主要主題是選擇權的規模，蘋果在其硬件巔峯時期根本沒有享受過。因此，我認為英偉達不會變成下一個蘋果。該公司仍然是人工智能計算時代的重要支柱，擁有眾多增長動力，遠遠超出任何單一產品類別。</p>
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Is Nvidia the Next Apple?

- 蘋果從產品創新者轉型為財務工程師，服務收入提升穩定性。  
- 英偉達的股價增長放緩，但仍主導數據中心市場。  
- 新興市場機會眾多，投資者需關注其多樣化發展。

英偉達會成為下一個蘋果嗎？