外匯和債券市場下週展望：美國就業數據和 ISM 數據備受關注

By Dow Jones Newswires staff

Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting June 1.

U.S. jobs data and ISM surveys on manufacturing and services activity will be in focus as investors assess the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates.

In Europe, eurozone inflation data will be watched as investors increasingly expect the European Central Bank could raise interest rates at its June meeting.

In Asia, the Reserve Bank of India's interest-rate decision and Australia's first-quarter growth print are due, alongside manufacturing activity surveys across the region.

Investors will continue to keep a very close eye on progress in peace talks between the U.S. and Iran amid hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened, easing pressure on oil prices.

U.S.

A string of U.S. jobs data during the week, culminating in Friday's key nonfarm payrolls report for May, will provide the highlight of the week in terms of economic data.

Payrolls figures for March and April were unexpectedly strong and came alongside other signs that the U.S. economy is holding up relatively well even as inflation rises due to elevated energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict.

This has led investors to anticipate that the Federal Reserve's next move will most likely be to increase interest rates. U.S. money markets currently price a 59% chance of a rate increase by the end of the year, LSEG data showed.

Further signs of a robust jobs market would likely add to rate-hike expectations. However, if the data show that the Middle East conflict is taking its toll on the jobs market then those expectations could be trimmed back.

"Another beat like April's could further cement the idea that rates are not going to be cut any time soon, particularly if there is evidence of significant wage growth. On the other hand, a weaker than expected number could create worries about recession while shifting the calculus on rates," AJ Bell analysts said in a note.

Other jobs data include April JOLTs job opening figures on Tuesday, ADP private payrolls numbers for May on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.

Another key indicator for the Fed outlook will be the latest ISM purchasing managers' surveys on manufacturing activity on Monday and on services activity on Wednesday. These will provide a health check on the state of the economy and could also be an important indicator for the future direction of interest rates.

Factory orders data for April are due Wednesday, followed by first-quarter revised productivity and costs data on Thursday.

Canada

Canadian jobs data for May are due on Friday.

These figures follow weak gross domestic product data for the first quarter.

Signs of weakness in the jobs market could reduce the possibility of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates this year, despite elevated oil prices. Canadian money markets currently fully price in a quarter-point rate rise in December, LSEG data showed.

Eurozone

Manufacturing PMIs for May are due from Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the eurozone on Monday, followed by services PMI on Wednesday.

Eurozone money supply data and eurozone unemployment data for April are due on Monday. Flash estimate eurozone CPI inflation data for May are due on Tuesday and should provide the highlight of the region's data.

The inflation data "will be one of the last key data points that the European Central Bank will have prior to its June meeting," said Investec analyst Sandra Horsfield in a note.

The ECB's next decision is on June 11 and money markets are pricing in a very high 93% chance that interest rates will be increased by 25 basis points, LSEG data showed.

"We think that the data will show headline inflation picking up further, to 3.3% y/y from 3.0% in April. but we imagine that will be less to do with the direct impact from higher wholesale energy prices, but more to do with indirect effects i.e. energy-related price pressures creeping into other consumer prices," Horsfield said.

Eurozone PPI for April is due Wednesday, while eurozone retail trade for April is scheduled for Thursday.

Germany will auction June 2028 Schatz on Tuesday, while Spain and France will hold auctions on Thursday.

U.K.

U.K. data week will focus on the housing market and will give evidence of how demand is holding up amid increased consumer prices due to elevated energy prices.

Nationwide's house price survey for May is due Monday, followed by the Bank of England's mortgage lending and consumer credit figures for April on Tuesday and Halifax's house-price index for May on Friday.

Data on the housing market for previous months have been relatively strong, so the question will be whether momentum has eased since given that mortgage rates have surged, said Investec economist Ellie Henderson. "We find it hard to believe that the housing market would be completely immune to the rise in mortgage rates and the extra uncertainty that the Iran war has added."

The final purchasing managers' report on manufacturing activity in May will be released on Monday, followed by the equivalent services survey on Wednesday.

The Debt Management Office is due to auction green gilts maturing in 2037 on Tuesday and index-linked gilts maturing in 2035 on Wednesday.

Scandinavia

Preliminary Swedish inflation data for May are due on Thursday. They come after Swedish gross domestic product was weaker than expected in the first quarter.

Sweden, Denmark and Norway will hold bond auctions on Wednesday.

Switzerland

Swiss gross domestic product data for the first quarter are due Monday, followed by CPI inflation data for May on Thursday.

Recent Swiss gross domestic product data "brought a message of resilience" but CPI inflation has remained very contained, said Rabobank senior currency strategist Jane Foley in a note. "This suggests very little need for an imminent policy tightening [by the Swiss National Bank]."

Japan

Investors will closely examine a speech by Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda on Wednesday for hints on the timing of the central bank's next interest-rate increase. Recent messaging from BOJ officials has signaled growing concern within the policy board about an acceleration in underlying inflation driven by higher oil prices. Any indication of concern over upside price risks is likely to further fuel expectations for a June rate hike.

"While any remarks [from Ueda] related to a potential rate hike at the BoJ's June meeting will naturally be one focal point, communication regarding longer-term inflation risks will also garner attention as a driver of long and superlong yield movements," Barclays said.

Auto sales figures for May and household spending data for April are due Monday and Friday, respectively.

The Ministry of Finance is scheduled to auction 2.6 trillion yen of 10-year government bonds on Tuesday. Market participants will likely watch investor demand for the issue closely amid geopolitical risks, including the Middle East conflict.

"The JGB yield curve has steepened sharply in May," SMBC Nikko Securities' Lisa Mochizuki said. "The current steepening phase owes to increases in long and super-long yields on concerns that the BOJ is falling behind the curve, so it could peter out if the BOJ hikes at the June [meeting] and signals a hawkish stance on monetary policy from here," the analyst said.

China

The latest purchasing managers' indexes for May will be in focus and expected to provide fresh insight into business sentiment in China after robust first-quarter growth.

China's official May manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMIs are due Monday. Based on a poll of analysts by The Wall Street Journal, the former is expected to fall to 50.1 in May from 50.3 in April.

With energy shipments still blocked from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, ANZ Research chief economist Sanjay Mathur points to reduced crude oil volumes for the decline in factory activity data. The government's crackdown on excessive competition and price wars in sectors such as photovoltaics and steel has also weighed on operating rates, he added.

On Wednesday, the RatingDog PMI surveys will be published, offering insight into sentiment among China's smaller private-sector companies.

Goldman Sachs forecasts the RatingDog manufacturing PMI to fall to 49.8 in May from 52.2 in April, as export activity indicators suggest outbound trade momentum moderated. Meanwhile, the services PMI is projected to edge up to 52.8 from 52.6 due to strong Labor Day holiday travel data.

Australia and New Zealand

Australia will publish its first-quarter growth print on Wednesday,.

Goldman Sachs economists expect the economy to have expanded 2.78% from a year earlier, which would mark the fastest pace of growth since 2023. "We expect growth to remain robust ahead of the impact of the conflict in the Middle East," they wrote.

Investors will also monitor remarks from senior Reserve Bank of Australia officials for clues on the outlook for monetary policy.

Trade data, due Thursday, could provide additional insight into economic conditions. Australia recorded a goods trade deficit in March, defying expectations for a surplus. GS economists expect the trade balance to return to a surplus of 2 billion Australian dollars in April, supported by stronger exports and a pullback in data-center-related imports.

Capital Economics said a run of softer April activity and inflation data, together with surveys showing business scaling back capital-expenditure plans, should give the RBA scope to keep interest rates unchanged in June.

Asian PMIs

PMIs are back in the spotlight as markets look to get a sense of how manufacturers are handling intensifying cost pressures.

Readings are due for Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, as well as a handful of Southeast Asian economies over Monday and Tuesday.

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May 29, 2026 12:37 ET (16:37 GMT)

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