<p>作者：朱爾斯·裏默</p>
<p>高盛將其韓國綜合股價指數目標從 7000 點上調至 12000 點</p>
<p>貨幣交易員慶祝韓國基準股指在 2 月份突破 6000 點。高盛表示，市場可能會翻倍。</p>
<p>然而，在 3 月初伊朗危機肆虐之際，高盛設定的 7000 點韓國綜合股價指數目標顯得雄心勃勃。</p>
<p>然而，快進三個月，這一目標已經輕鬆超越，亞洲首席投資策略師 Tim Moe 現在將其 KOSPI KR:180721 目標上調至 12000 點，幾乎比周三收盤的 8801 點高出 40%。他對市場的推薦仍然是增持。</p>
<p>Moe 大幅上調目標的驅動力是韓國公司，尤其是兩家重量級內存芯片製造商三星電子（KR:005930）和 SK 海力士（KR:000660）所享受的驚人盈利增長，這兩家公司幾乎佔據了該指數的一半。</p>
<p>韓國和台灣的指數漲幅受到共識增長預期修正的推動</p>
<p>他們的盈利前景沒有放緩的跡象，實際上還受到英偉達（NVDA）首席執行官黃仁勳在週二台北參加科技會議時的評論進一步增強。黃表示，他的公司從三星和 SK 海力士購買大部分高帶寬內存芯片，並請求後者 “請多生產一些”，同時對該產品表示熱情。</p>
<p>這種持續的需求是 Moe 在他和他的亞洲策略團隊週三發佈的報告中概述的戲劇性盈利修正的背後原因。在 2026 年初，韓國市場的共識每股收益增長率為相當不錯的 48%。現在這一數字已達到 277%。</p>
<p>Moe 將 2026 年盈利增長的預期從 300% 上調至 320%，並將 2027 年的盈利增長預期從 28% 上調至 35%。盈利的強勁程度使得即使 KOSPI 達到 12000 點，市場的前瞻性市盈率仍僅為 8 倍。</p>
<p>Moe 指出，由於 “計算需求增長的速度超過供應的響應速度，市場繼續低估半導體內存週期的可能持續時間。” 他認為，韓國目前僅有 5 倍的前瞻性市盈率表明市場對這種供需動態的持久性持懷疑態度。</p>
<p>Moe 仍然認為市場低估了內存芯片供需失衡能夠持續的時間</p>
<p>因此，Moe 認為市場仍被低估，如果韓國的 “價值提升計劃” 這一政府主導的提高治理標準和更好保護少數股東的倡議取得持續進展，可能會有進一步重新評級的催化劑。</p>
<p>為了尋找支持其看漲前景的歷史證據，Moe 借鑑了韓國過去應對盈利週期性的經驗，發現市場高峰期的中位估值為 10 倍市盈率，而目前為 8.2 倍，市場低谷期的中位估值為 11.4 倍。Moe 計算，即使 KOSPI 遭遇戰術性修正，可能也只會下跌至約 7800 點。</p>
<p>儘管 KOSPI 年初至今的 127% 回報率在全球股市中引領潮流，但台灣作為另一個與 AI 主題有顯著關聯的市場表現也極為出色。Moe 評估，85% 的台灣加權股價指數 TWSE TW:Y9999 與 AI 相關，這解釋了他和他的團隊將 2026 年的每股收益增長預測上調至 48%（從 45%）和 2027 年上調至 30%（從 28%）。AI 熱潮使其最大股票——台灣半導體制造公司（TSM）受益匪淺。因此，高盛現在將 TWSE 的指數目標設定為 51000 點，比目前水平高出 12%，並將推薦評級上調至增持。</p>
<p>在週四的盤前交易中，台灣最具流動性的交易所交易基金 EWT 顯示上漲 0.45%，而韓國的 EWY 則暗示下跌 0.6%。</p>
<p>-朱爾斯·裏默</p>
<p>該內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
<p>06-03-26 0514ET</p>

<p>高盛將其 KOSPI 目標上調至 12,000，理由是三星和 SK 海力士的盈利激增帶來了 40% 的上漲空間。Nvidia 對內存芯片的需求使 2026 年的每股收益增長預測提升至 320%。市場在前瞻性市盈率為 8 倍的情況下仍然被低估。高盛還因 AI 相關的影響，將台灣的 TWSE 目標上調至 51,000</p>

<p>By Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：朱爾斯·裏默</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs raises its KOSPI index target from 7,000 to 12,000</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛將其韓國綜合股價指數目標從 7000 點上調至 12000 點</p>
</div><p>Currency dealers celebrating South Korea's benchmark stock index breaking the 6,000 points, back in February. Goldman Sachs says the market could double that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>貨幣交易員慶祝韓國基準股指在 2 月份突破 6000 點。高盛表示，市場可能會翻倍。</p>
</div><p>Back at the start of March with the Iranian crisis raging, the 7,000 target for South Korea's KOSPI index set by Goldman Sachs was looking ambitious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在 3 月初伊朗危機肆虐之際，高盛設定的 7000 點韓國綜合股價指數目標顯得雄心勃勃。</p>
</div><p>Fast forward three months, however, that objective has been comfortably exceeded and chief portfolio strategist for Asia, Tim Moe, has now boosted his KOSPI KR:180721 target to 12,000, almost 40% above Wednesday's close of 8,801. His recommendation for the market remains at overweight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，快進三個月，這一目標已經輕鬆超越，亞洲首席投資策略師 Tim Moe 現在將其 KOSPI KR:180721 目標上調至 12000 點，幾乎比周三收盤的 8801 點高出 40%。他對市場的推薦仍然是增持。</p>
</div><p>The driving force behind Moe's massive upgrade is the spectacular earnings growth enjoyed by South Korean companies, especially the two heavyweight memory chip makers, Samsung Electronics (KR:005930) and SK Hynix (KR:000660), that between them comprise almost half of the index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moe 大幅上調目標的驅動力是韓國公司，尤其是兩家重量級內存芯片製造商三星電子（KR:005930）和 SK 海力士（KR:000660）所享受的驚人盈利增長，這兩家公司幾乎佔據了該指數的一半。</p>
</div><p>Index gains in Korea and Taiwan are powered by revisions to consensus growth expectations</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韓國和台灣的指數漲幅受到共識增長預期修正的推動</p>
</div><p>Their earnings prospects show no signs of slowing and in fact were further enhanced by comments made by Nvidia's (NVDA) chief executive Jensen Huang who was attending a tech conference in Taipei on Tuesday. Huang, whose company buys most of the high-bandwidth memory chips from Samsung and SK Hynix, requested that the latter &#34;Please Make More&#34; while expressing enthusiasm for the product.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他們的盈利前景沒有放緩的跡象，實際上還受到英偉達（NVDA）首席執行官黃仁勳在週二台北參加科技會議時的評論進一步增強。黃表示，他的公司從三星和 SK 海力士購買大部分高帶寬內存芯片，並請求後者 “請多生產一些”，同時對該產品表示熱情。</p>
</div><p>This relentless demand has been behind the dramatic earnings revisions, outlined by Moe in a report he and his Asian strategy team published Wednesday. At the start of 2026, consensus earnings per share growth for the South Korean market was a pretty decent 48%. Now that figure is 277%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種持續的需求是 Moe 在他和他的亞洲策略團隊週三發佈的報告中概述的戲劇性盈利修正的背後原因。在 2026 年初，韓國市場的共識每股收益增長率為相當不錯的 48%。現在這一數字已達到 277%。</p>
</div><p>Moe is lifting his estimates for 2026 earnings growth to 320% from 300%, and also boosted his 2027 earnings growth view to 35% from 28%. The strength of earnings is such that even if KOSPI were to achieve 12,000, the market would still only be trading on 8 times forward earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moe 將 2026 年盈利增長的預期從 300% 上調至 320%，並將 2027 年的盈利增長預期從 28% 上調至 35%。盈利的強勁程度使得即使 KOSPI 達到 12000 點，市場的前瞻性市盈率仍僅為 8 倍。</p>
</div><p>Moe points out that since &#34;the demand for compute is growing faster than supply can respond, the market continues to underprice the likely duration of the semiconductor memory cycle.&#34; That South Korea currently commands only 5 times forward earnings suggests the market is skeptical of the longevity of this supply-demand dynamic, Moe contends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moe 指出，由於 “計算需求增長的速度超過供應的響應速度，市場繼續低估半導體內存週期的可能持續時間。” 他認為，韓國目前僅有 5 倍的前瞻性市盈率表明市場對這種供需動態的持久性持懷疑態度。</p>
</div><p>Moe still thinks the market is underestimating how long the supply-demand mismatch in memory chips can persist</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moe 仍然認為市場低估了內存芯片供需失衡能夠持續的時間</p>
</div><p>The market remains, therefore, Moe argues, undervalued with potential catalysts to rerate further if continued progress is made on Korea's 'Value-Up program,, a government-led initiative to raise governance standards and better protect minority shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，Moe 認為市場仍被低估，如果韓國的 “價值提升計劃” 這一政府主導的提高治理標準和更好保護少數股東的倡議取得持續進展，可能會有進一步重新評級的催化劑。</p>
</div><p>Looking for historical evidence to support his bullish outlook, Moe draws on Korea's experience of dealing with earnings cyclicality in the past and found that the median valuation during market peaks was a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times, versus the present 8.2 times, and the median valuation during market troughs was 11.4 times. Moe calculates that even if KOSPI were to succumb to a tactical correction, it probably only has downside to around 7,800.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了尋找支持其看漲前景的歷史證據，Moe 借鑑了韓國過去應對盈利週期性的經驗，發現市場高峰期的中位估值為 10 倍市盈率，而目前為 8.2 倍，市場低谷期的中位估值為 11.4 倍。Moe 計算，即使 KOSPI 遭遇戰術性修正，可能也只會下跌至約 7800 點。</p>
</div><p>While KOSPI's 127% year-to-date return has been setting the pace for stock markets globally, Taiwan, the other market with significant exposure to the AI theme, has performed extremely well also. Moe assesses 85% of the Taiwanese TWSE TW:Y9999 benchmark is exposed to AI and this explains why he and his team upped their EPS growth forecasts to 48% in 2026 (from 45%) and 30% in 2027 (from 28%). The AI boom has benefited its largest stock, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), best of all. As a consequence, Goldman Sachs now has an index target of 51,000 for the TWSE, 12% above present levels and justifying an upgrade in recommendation to overweight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 KOSPI 年初至今的 127% 回報率在全球股市中引領潮流，但台灣作為另一個與 AI 主題有顯著關聯的市場表現也極為出色。Moe 評估，85% 的台灣加權股價指數 TWSE TW:Y9999 與 AI 相關，這解釋了他和他的團隊將 2026 年的每股收益增長預測上調至 48%（從 45%）和 2027 年上調至 30%（從 28%）。AI 熱潮使其最大股票——台灣半導體制造公司（TSM）受益匪淺。因此，高盛現在將 TWSE 的指數目標設定為 51000 點，比目前水平高出 12%，並將推薦評級上調至增持。</p>
</div><p>In pre-market trading Thursday, the most liquid exchange traded fund for Taiwan EWT was indicating a gain of 0.45% while Korea's EWY was suggesting a 0.6% decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在週四的盤前交易中，台灣最具流動性的交易所交易基金 EWT 顯示上漲 0.45%，而韓國的 EWY 則暗示下跌 0.6%。</p>
</div><p>-Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-朱爾斯·裏默</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>06-03-26 0514ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>06-03-26 0514ET</p>
</div>

The hottest stock market in the world has doubled this year. Now Goldman Sachs sees another 40% gain from here.

Dow Jones

高盛

韓國 MSCI ETF - iShares

三星電子

英偉達

台灣指數 MSCI ETF - iShares

台積電

GS Hldg R

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. Sponsored GDR

NVIDIA Corporation

今年全球最熱門的股市已經翻了一番。高盛現在預計該市場將再上漲 40%