<p>鉑金最近經歷了異常的波動。一年前，它的交易價格為每盎司 1,192 美元，隨後上漲至 2,819 美元，最終回落至 2,000 美元以下。</p>
<p><strong>Valterra Platinum</strong> (OTCPK: ANGPY) 今年迄今下跌了 6.86%。</p>
<p>然而，儘管市場似乎在每次反彈時都在拋售，行業專家對長期前景依然持樂觀態度。供應短缺依然持續，需求基礎的擴大也遠遠超出了傳統汽車應用。</p>
<h2>短期盈餘與結構性短缺</h2>
<p>根據 <strong>世界鉑金投資委員會</strong>（WPIC）的數據，鉑金市場在第一季度錄得罕見的盈餘。268,000 盎司的盈餘是六個季度以來的首次。</p>
<p>伊朗的衝突導致投資者大規模清算，交易者尋求現金。與此同時，能源價格、通貨膨脹和利率的擔憂加劇了下跌。</p>
<p>供應也得到了提升。與 2025 年第一季度相比，總供應量增長了 18%，主要的南非礦業運營從干擾中恢復。礦山供應增長了 22%，而更高的價格鼓勵了額外的回收，推動二次供應上升了 7%。</p>
<p>然而，WPIC 並不滿意。該組織仍然認為存在結構性短缺，將預計的短缺從 240,000 增加到 297,000，連續第四年出現短缺。</p>
<p>庫存情況進一步強化了這種看漲的觀點。地面上儲存的庫存到年底可能會減少 15%，僅剩 170 萬盎司。這個數字不足以覆蓋全球需求的 3 個月。</p>
<h2>需求變化與投資者心理</h2>
<p>雖然收緊的基本面支撐市場，但 SFA（牛津）首席執行官 <strong>Henk de Hoop</strong> 認為，投資者行為同樣成為一個重要因素。</p>
<p>歷史上，鉑金投資需求高度週期性，實物持有者在價格下跌時往往會積極拋售。在接受 Mining Weekly 採訪時，De Hoop 認為這種動態正在改變。</p>
<p>“鉑金的投資角度越來越強，我們不會像過去那樣經歷同樣程度的下跌，” 他在談到來自日本和中國的投資者時表示。</p>
<p>日益增長的宏觀經濟不確定性是關鍵原因。股市波動和地緣政治風險的上升促使投資者持有實物鉑金。它成為一種多元化資產，而不是短期交易。</p>
<p>投資案例正在超越鉑金本身。根據 De Hoop 的説法，進入中國的一些釕進口中，可能有多達一半現在是用於投資目的，而非工業消費。</p>
<h2>新的需求驅動因素</h2>
<p>電池電動汽車仍然是需求的長期挑戰，但 De Hoop 估計內燃機和混合動力汽車仍將存在。他預計十年後汽車鉑金需求將下降 40%，約佔總消費的三分之一。</p>
<p>與此同時，新興技術前景可期。中國在氫基礎設施方面的推動可能成為一個顯著因素，因為重型氫燃料電池車輛每輛卡車可能需要 2-3 盎司鉑金。</p>
<p>“如果它在某個地方成功，那就是中國，而這正是我們密切關注的地方，” 他指出。</p>
<p>人工智能基礎設施也正成為需求日益重要的驅動因素。鉑金族金屬在生產用於半導體、光通信系統和數據中心的特種晶體中至關重要。</p>
<p>儘管如此，De Hoop 警告投資者不要忽視宏觀經濟風險。</p>
<p>“我們有一個最重要的商品轉移通道，霍爾木茲海峽，仍然關閉，” 他説，並指出能源、化肥和工業供應鏈的中斷正在造成通貨膨脹壓力，並影響全球增長預期。</p>
<p>經濟增長放緩和汽車銷售疲軟可能最終影響 PGM 需求。即便如此，這種疲軟應該是短期的，因為結構性短缺、庫存下降、投資需求增加和新興工業應用支撐了長期前景。</p>
<p><em>圖片來源於 yMediaStock via Shutterstock</em></p>

UPLT

白金信託 ETF - GraniteShares

實物白金股 ETF -ETFS

<p>儘管近期市場波動，專家們對鉑金依然持樂觀態度，原因在於持續的結構性短缺和不斷變化的需求。儘管第一季度由於南非供應恢復出現了暫時的過剩，但 WPIC 預計到年底將持續短缺，庫存也在下降。需求正從汽車領域轉向氫燃料電池和人工智能基礎設施，而地緣政治的不確定性則推動了對實物持有的投資需求，支持了長期價值</p>

<p>Platinum has experienced extraordinary volatility in recent times. A year ago, it traded at $1,192 per ounce, before rallying to $2,819, and eventually settling below $2,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉑金最近經歷了異常的波動。一年前，它的交易價格為每盎司 1,192 美元，隨後上漲至 2,819 美元，最終回落至 2,000 美元以下。</p>
</div><p><strong>Valterra Platinum</strong> (OTCPK: ANGPY) is down 6.86% year-to-date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Valterra Platinum</strong> (OTCPK: ANGPY) 今年迄今下跌了 6.86%。</p>
</div><p>Yet, despite the market seemingly selling every rally, industry experts remain constructive on the long-term outlook. Supply deficits remain persistent, and a broadening demand base continues to extend well beyond traditional automotive applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，儘管市場似乎在每次反彈時都在拋售，行業專家對長期前景依然持樂觀態度。供應短缺依然持續，需求基礎的擴大也遠遠超出了傳統汽車應用。</p>
</div><h2>Near-Term Surpluses vs. Structural Deficits</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>短期盈餘與結構性短缺</h2>
</div><p>According to the <strong>World Platinum Investment Council</strong> (WPIC), the platinum market recorded a rare surplus in the first quarter. The 268,000-ounce surplus was the first one in six quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 <strong>世界鉑金投資委員會</strong>（WPIC）的數據，鉑金市場在第一季度錄得罕見的盈餘。268,000 盎司的盈餘是六個季度以來的首次。</p>
</div><p>A conflict in Iran drove widespread investor liquidations as traders sought cash. Meanwhile, concerns regarding energy prices, inflation, and interest rates amplified the decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗的衝突導致投資者大規模清算，交易者尋求現金。與此同時，能源價格、通貨膨脹和利率的擔憂加劇了下跌。</p>
</div><p>Supply also received a boost. Total availability rose by 18% compared to the first quarter of 2025, as key South African mining operations recovered from disruptions. Mine supply grew by 22%, while higher prices encouraged additional recycling, pushing the secondary supply up by 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供應也得到了提升。與 2025 年第一季度相比，總供應量增長了 18%，主要的南非礦業運營從干擾中恢復。礦山供應增長了 22%，而更高的價格鼓勵了額外的回收，推動二次供應上升了 7%。</p>
</div><p>Yet, WPIC is not impressed. The organization still sees structural undersupply, raising the projected deficit from 240,000 to 297,000 for the fourth consecutive year of shortages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，WPIC 並不滿意。該組織仍然認為存在結構性短缺，將預計的短缺從 240,000 增加到 297,000，連續第四年出現短缺。</p>
</div><p>The inventory picture reinforces that bullish view. Above-ground vaulted stocks could fall by 15% to just 1.7 million ounces by year-end. That number is less than 3 months of global demand cover.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>庫存情況進一步強化了這種看漲的觀點。地面上儲存的庫存到年底可能會減少 15%，僅剩 170 萬盎司。這個數字不足以覆蓋全球需求的 3 個月。</p>
</div><h2>Evolving Demand and Investor Psychology</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>需求變化與投資者心理</h2>
</div><p>While tightening fundamentals support the market, SFA (Oxford) CEO <strong>Henk de Hoop</strong> believes investor behavior has become an equally important factor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然收緊的基本面支撐市場，但 SFA（牛津）首席執行官 <strong>Henk de Hoop</strong> 認為，投資者行為同樣成為一個重要因素。</p>
</div><p>Historically, platinum investment demand was highly cyclical, with physical holders often selling aggressively during price declines. In an interview for Mining Weekly, De Hoop argues the dynamic is changing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，鉑金投資需求高度週期性，實物持有者在價格下跌時往往會積極拋售。在接受 Mining Weekly 採訪時，De Hoop 認為這種動態正在改變。</p>
</div><p>“The investment angle for platinum is getting stronger and stronger, and we’re not going to get this ride down to the same extent as what we had in the past,” he said, discussing investors from Japan and China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“鉑金的投資角度越來越強，我們不會像過去那樣經歷同樣程度的下跌，” 他在談到來自日本和中國的投資者時表示。</p>
</div><p>Growing macroeconomic uncertainty is the key reason. Stock market volatility and elevated geopolitical risk push investors to hold onto physical platinum. It becomes a diversification asset rather than a short-term trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日益增長的宏觀經濟不確定性是關鍵原因。股市波動和地緣政治風險的上升促使投資者持有實物鉑金。它成為一種多元化資產，而不是短期交易。</p>
</div><p>The investment case is spreading beyond platinum itself. According to De Hoop, up to half of some ruthenium imports into China may now be destined for investment purposes rather than industrial consumption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資案例正在超越鉑金本身。根據 De Hoop 的説法，進入中國的一些釕進口中，可能有多達一半現在是用於投資目的，而非工業消費。</p>
</div><h2>New Demand Drivers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新的需求驅動因素</h2>
</div><p>Battery electric vehicles remain a long-term challenge for demand, but De Hoop estimates that internal combustion and hybrid vehicles will still stick around. He sees a 40% decline in automotive platinum demand to about one-third of total consumption a decade from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>電池電動汽車仍然是需求的長期挑戰，但 De Hoop 估計內燃機和混合動力汽車仍將存在。他預計十年後汽車鉑金需求將下降 40%，約佔總消費的三分之一。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, emerging technologies are promising. China’s push into hydrogen infrastructure could become a notable factor, as heavy-duty hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles can require 2-3 ounces of platinum per truck.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，新興技術前景可期。中國在氫基礎設施方面的推動可能成為一個顯著因素，因為重型氫燃料電池車輛每輛卡車可能需要 2-3 盎司鉑金。</p>
</div><p>“If it will succeed somewhere, it will be in China, and that’s the one we follow closely,” he noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果它在某個地方成功，那就是中國，而這正是我們密切關注的地方，” 他指出。</p>
</div><p>Artificial intelligence infrastructure is also becoming an increasingly important driver of demand. Platinum group metals are essential in producing specialty crystals used in semiconductors, optical communications systems, and data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能基礎設施也正成為需求日益重要的驅動因素。鉑金族金屬在生產用於半導體、光通信系統和數據中心的特種晶體中至關重要。</p>
</div><p>Still, De Hoop warns that investors should not ignore macroeconomic risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，De Hoop 警告投資者不要忽視宏觀經濟風險。</p>
</div><p>“We have one of the most important channels for commodity transfers, Hormuz, still closed,” he said, noting that disruptions to energy, fertilizer, and industrial supply chains are creating inflationary pressures and weighing on global growth expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們有一個最重要的商品轉移通道，霍爾木茲海峽，仍然關閉，” 他説，並指出能源、化肥和工業供應鏈的中斷正在造成通貨膨脹壓力，並影響全球增長預期。</p>
</div><p>Slower economic growth and weaker automotive sales could eventually affect PGM demand. Even so, such weaknesses should be short-term, as structural deficits, declining inventory, increasing investment demand, and emerging industrial applications support the long-term outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟增長放緩和汽車銷售疲軟可能最終影響 PGM 需求。即便如此，這種疲軟應該是短期的，因為結構性短缺、庫存下降、投資需求增加和新興工業應用支撐了長期前景。</p>
</div><p><em>Image by yMediaStock via Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源於 yMediaStock via Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

為什麼專家在市場動盪中仍然看好鉑金