<h2>關鍵點</h2>
<ul>
<li>Costco 和沃爾瑪在最近的季度中表現出色。</li>
<li>但這兩隻股票目前的估值都很高，標普 500 指數也是如此。</li>
<li>沃爾瑪警告可能出現消費者困境。</li>
<li>我們更看好的 10 只股票 ›</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>好市多</strong>(NASDAQ: COST) 剛剛發佈了出色的財報，季度增長率達到了多年來的最高水平。<strong>沃爾瑪</strong>(NASDAQ: WMT) 兩週前也報告了驚人的業績，考慮到這兩家公司是美國最大的實體超市公司，這充分説明了美國消費者目前的韌性。</p>
<p>然而，儘管業績輝煌，Costco 和沃爾瑪在財報發佈後股價均下跌。這對投資者來説是一個警告嗎？</p>
<p><em><strong>人工智能會創造出世界上第一個萬億富翁嗎？</strong> 我們的團隊剛剛發佈了一份關於一家鮮為人知的公司報告，該公司被稱為 “不可或缺的壟斷”，提供 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的關鍵技術。<strong>繼續 »</strong></em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MjU5My9hLXBlcnNvbi13aXRoLWEtYmFieS1wdXR0aW5nLWdyb2NlcnktYmFncy1pbi1hLWNhci10cnVuay5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MjU5My9hLXBlcnNvbi13aXRoLWEtYmFieS1wdXR0aW5nLWdyb2NlcnktYmFncy1pbi1hLWNhci10cnVuay5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>消費者持續購物</h2>
<p>好市多在 2026 財年第三季度（截至 5 月 10 日）的收入同比增長了 11.6%，是自 2022 年以來的最高增速。可比銷售（同店銷售）增長了 9.8%，每股收益為 4.28 美元，較去年 4.93 美元有所下降。該季度的最後五週是公司歷史上交易量最高的五週。</p>
<p>儘管燃料成本上升對許多公司產生了負面影響，但好市多利用這種波動性，提供低價汽油，吸引那些通常不在其加油站加油的會員。選擇在好市多加油的會員通常整體消費也更高。</p>
<p>一如既往，各項指標均表現強勁，會員費收入增長了 10.7%，高管會員增長了 9.6%。</p>
<p>沃爾瑪的表現也講述了類似的故事。在 2027 財年第一季度（截至 4 月 30 日），銷售額同比增長了 7.3%，美國同店銷售增長了 4.1%。每股收益（EPS）從 0.61 美元上升至 0.66 美元。全球會員費收入增長了 17.4%，公司繼續利用其超過 10,000 家全球門店快速履行訂單，這是其相較其他超市的關鍵優勢。</p>
<p>其所有業務均表現良好，包括高利潤的廣告業務，同比增長了 37%。</p>
<h2>但這可能很快就會結束</h2>
<p>儘管業績出色，Costco 和沃爾瑪的股票在財報發佈後均下跌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vbWVkaWEueWNoYXJ0cy5jb20vY2hhcnRzL2VlOTU4MjhmMjQ1YzUyNTU1YzI4YmUyNGZkYjNiNTg5LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vbWVkaWEueWNoYXJ0cy5jb20vY2hhcnRzL2VlOTU4MjhmMjQ1YzUyNTU1YzI4YmUyNGZkYjNiNTg5LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>WMT 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>如上圖所示，沃爾瑪的報告發布後，Costco 的股價已經開始下跌。宏觀經濟形勢令人擔憂，沃爾瑪首席財務官約翰·雷尼指出：“我們看到高收入客户在許多類別中信心十足地消費，而低收入消費者則更加註重預算，可能正在應對財務困境。”</p>
<p>這對美國消費者的持續韌性發出了警告。隨着通貨膨脹持續高企和燃料價格上漲，經濟雖然強勁，但可能會開始感受到壓力。</p>
<p>但事情還有更多的內容。</p>
<h2>對華爾街的警告？</h2>
<p>儘管對經濟的擔憂，市場仍在持續上漲。<strong>標普 500 指數</strong> 不斷創下新高，截至目前已上漲近 11%。隨着其上漲，估值也在不斷提高。週期性調整後的市盈率（CAPE 比率）接近 40，是一個多世紀以來的第二高水平。之前的高點 44 是在 2000 年互聯網泡沫破裂前達到的，隨後迎來了連續三年的標普 500 損失。</p>
<p>這對好市多和沃爾瑪的情況有什麼影響？這兩隻股票的估值都變得相當昂貴；好市多的市盈率為過去 12 個月收益的 49 倍，而沃爾瑪的市盈率為 41 倍。這些都是高估值，這意味着這兩家公司都無法承受任何失誤。</p>
<p>換句話説，在這些價格下，任何負面情緒甚至只是情緒上的負面都可能導致股價下跌。這對整個市場都是如此。沃倫·巴菲特以指出當市場貪婪時他會感到恐懼而聞名。牛市不一定意味着貪婪，但不合理的估值確實如此。如今，即使是像沃爾瑪和好市多這樣的安全股息股票，其交易估值也遠高於多年的平均水平。</p>
<p>在這種情況下，投資者應確保他們的投資組合多樣化，擁有能夠在經濟下滑時保護資金的核心股票，並在新股票購買時保持謹慎。</p>
<h2>現在應該購買沃爾瑪的股票嗎？</h2>
<p>在你購買沃爾瑪的股票之前，請考慮以下幾點：</p>
<p><em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> 分析團隊剛剛確定了他們認為的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong> 供投資者現在購買……而沃爾瑪並不在其中。這 10 只股票可能在未來幾年內產生鉅額回報。</p>
<p>考慮一下 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日進入這個名單時……如果你在我們推薦時投資了 1,000 美元，<strong>你將擁有 439,632 美元</strong>！* 或者當 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日進入這個名單時……如果你在我們推薦時投資了 1,000 美元，<strong>你將擁有 1,316,532 美元</strong>！*</p>
<p>現在值得注意的是，<em>Stock Advisor</em> 的總平均回報率為 960%——相比之下，標普 500 的回報率為 211%。<strong>不要錯過最新的前 10 名股票名單，加入由個人投資者為個人投資者建立的投資社區。</strong></p>
<p><strong>查看這 10 只股票 »</strong></p>
<p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回報截至 2026 年 6 月 4 日。</em></p>
<p><em>詹妮弗·賽比爾持有沃爾瑪的股份。Motley Fool 持有並推薦好市多和沃爾瑪的股份。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
<p>本文中表達的觀點和意見是作者的觀點和意見，並不一定反映納斯達克公司的觀點。</p>

沃爾瑪

標普 500 指數

開市客

<p>儘管沃爾瑪和開市客的財報表現出色，但由於估值過高，股價下跌。沃爾瑪警告稱，隨着通貨膨脹持續，低收入消費者可能面臨困境。由於標普 500 指數的 CAPE 比率處於高位，兩家零售商的交易倍數也較高，分析師建議保持謹慎，推薦在市場貪婪的情況下進行多元化投資和選擇性購買</p>

<h2>Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>關鍵點</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>Both Costco and Walmart reported outstanding performance in their most recent quarters.</li>
<li>But both stocks trade at expensive valuations now, as does the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>Walmart is warning of potential consumer distress.</li>
<li>10 stocks we like better than Walmart ›</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>Costco 和沃爾瑪在最近的季度中表現出色。</li>
<li>但這兩隻股票目前的估值都很高，標普 500 指數也是如此。</li>
<li>沃爾瑪警告可能出現消費者困境。</li>
<li>我們更看好的 10 只股票 ›</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(NASDAQ: COST) just reported an outstanding earnings report with its highest quarterly growth in years. <strong>Walmart</strong>(NASDAQ: WMT) reported phenomenal results as well just two weeks ago, and since these two companies are the largest physical supermarket companies in the U.S., that says a lot about the resilience of the U.S. consumer right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>好市多</strong>(NASDAQ: COST) 剛剛發佈了出色的財報，季度增長率達到了多年來的最高水平。<strong>沃爾瑪</strong>(NASDAQ: WMT) 兩週前也報告了驚人的業績，考慮到這兩家公司是美國最大的實體超市公司，這充分説明了美國消費者目前的韌性。</p>
</div><p>However, despite the brilliant results, both Costco and Walmart fell after earnings. Is this a warning for investors?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，儘管業績輝煌，Costco 和沃爾瑪在財報發佈後股價均下跌。這對投資者來説是一個警告嗎？</p>
</div><p><em><strong>Will AI create the world's first trillionaire?</strong> Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an &#34;Indispensable Monopoly&#34; providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. <strong>Continue »</strong></em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>人工智能會創造出世界上第一個萬億富翁嗎？</strong> 我們的團隊剛剛發佈了一份關於一家鮮為人知的公司報告，該公司被稱為 “不可或缺的壟斷”，提供 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的關鍵技術。<strong>繼續 »</strong></em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MjU5My9hLXBlcnNvbi13aXRoLWEtYmFieS1wdXR0aW5nLWdyb2NlcnktYmFncy1pbi1hLWNhci10cnVuay5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F872593%2Fa-person-with-a-baby-putting-grocery-bags-in-a-car-trunk.jpg&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Shoppers keep shopping</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>消費者持續購物</h2>
</div><p>Costco's revenue increased 11.6% year over year in the 2026 fiscal third quarter (ended May 10), its highest rate since 2022. Comparable sales (comps) were up 9.8%, and earnings per share were $4.28, up from $4.93 the year before. The last five weeks of the quarter were the company's highest-volume five-week period ever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好市多在 2026 財年第三季度（截至 5 月 10 日）的收入同比增長了 11.6%，是自 2022 年以來的最高增速。可比銷售（同店銷售）增長了 9.8%，每股收益為 4.28 美元，較去年 4.93 美元有所下降。該季度的最後五週是公司歷史上交易量最高的五週。</p>
</div><p>Although higher fuel costs have been negatively impacting many companies, Costco is using the volatility to its advantage, providing lower-cost gas and attracting members who don't usually fill up at its stations. Members who fuel up at Costco also tend to spend more overall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管燃料成本上升對許多公司產生了負面影響，但好市多利用這種波動性，提供低價汽油，吸引那些通常不在其加油站加油的會員。選擇在好市多加油的會員通常整體消費也更高。</p>
</div><p>As usual, there was strong growth across metrics, with membership fee income up 10.7% and executive membership up 9.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一如既往，各項指標均表現強勁，會員費收入增長了 10.7%，高管會員增長了 9.6%。</p>
</div><p>Walmart's performance tells a similar story. In the 2027 fiscal first quarter (ended April 30), sales were up 7.3% over last year, with a 4.1% increase in U.S. comps. Earnings per share (EPS) were up from $0.61 to $0.66. Global membership fee revenue was up 17.4%, and the company continues to leverage its 10,000+ global store base to fulfill orders quickly, a key advantage over other supermarkets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃爾瑪的表現也講述了類似的故事。在 2027 財年第一季度（截至 4 月 30 日），銷售額同比增長了 7.3%，美國同店銷售增長了 4.1%。每股收益（EPS）從 0.61 美元上升至 0.66 美元。全球會員費收入增長了 17.4%，公司繼續利用其超過 10,000 家全球門店快速履行訂單，這是其相較其他超市的關鍵優勢。</p>
</div><p>All of its businesses are performing well, including the high-margin advertising business, which was up 37% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其所有業務均表現良好，包括高利潤的廣告業務，同比增長了 37%。</p>
</div><h2>But that might end soon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但這可能很快就會結束</h2>
</div><p>Despite fabulous results, both Costco and Walmart stock fell after the releases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管業績出色，Costco 和沃爾瑪的股票在財報發佈後均下跌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vbWVkaWEueWNoYXJ0cy5jb20vY2hhcnRzL2VlOTU4MjhmMjQ1YzUyNTU1YzI4YmUyNGZkYjNiNTg5LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.ycharts.com%2Fcharts%2Fee95828f245c52555c28be24fdb3b589.png&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>WMT data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>WMT 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Costco stock had already been falling after Walmart's report, as seen in the chart above. The macro picture is worrisome, as Walmart CFO John Rainey noted: &#34;We see with our customers that the high-income customer is spending with confidence in many categories, while the lower-income consumer is more budget-conscious and perhaps navigating financial distress.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上圖所示，沃爾瑪的報告發布後，Costco 的股價已經開始下跌。宏觀經濟形勢令人擔憂，沃爾瑪首席財務官約翰·雷尼指出：“我們看到高收入客户在許多類別中信心十足地消費，而低收入消費者則更加註重預算，可能正在應對財務困境。”</p>
</div><p>That's a warning about the continued resilience of the U.S. consumer. As inflation remains relentless and fuel prices increase, the economy, which has been strong, might start feeling the pinch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這對美國消費者的持續韌性發出了警告。隨着通貨膨脹持續高企和燃料價格上漲，經濟雖然強勁，但可能會開始感受到壓力。</p>
</div><p>But there's more to the story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但事情還有更多的內容。</p>
</div><h2>Warning to Wall Street?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對華爾街的警告？</h2>
</div><p>Despite worries about the economy, the market continues to zoom higher. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> keeps hitting new highs, and it's up nearly 11% year to date as of this writing. As it climbs, it's becoming more expensive. The cyclically adjusted P/E, or CAPE ratio, is nearly 40, its second-highest level in more than a century of tracking. The previous high of 44 was reached right before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, ushering in three consecutive years of S&amp;P 500 losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管對經濟的擔憂，市場仍在持續上漲。<strong>標普 500 指數</strong> 不斷創下新高，截至目前已上漲近 11%。隨着其上漲，估值也在不斷提高。週期性調整後的市盈率（CAPE 比率）接近 40，是一個多世紀以來的第二高水平。之前的高點 44 是在 2000 年互聯網泡沫破裂前達到的，隨後迎來了連續三年的標普 500 損失。</p>
</div><p>How does that play into what's happening at Costco and Walmart? Both stocks have become quite expensive; Costco trades at 49 times trailing-12-month earnings, while Walmart trades at 41 times trailing-12-month earnings. Those are premium valuations, which means that neither company can afford any missteps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這對好市多和沃爾瑪的情況有什麼影響？這兩隻股票的估值都變得相當昂貴；好市多的市盈率為過去 12 個月收益的 49 倍，而沃爾瑪的市盈率為 41 倍。這些都是高估值，這意味着這兩家公司都無法承受任何失誤。</p>
</div><p>In other words, at these prices, any negativity, even only in sentiment, can send the stock down. And that goes for the entire market. Warren Buffett is famous for noting that he gets fearful when the market is greedy. Bull markets don't have to imply greed, but unreasonable valuations do. Today, even safe dividend stocks like Walmart and Costco are trading at valuations well above multi-year averages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，在這些價格下，任何負面情緒甚至只是情緒上的負面都可能導致股價下跌。這對整個市場都是如此。沃倫·巴菲特以指出當市場貪婪時他會感到恐懼而聞名。牛市不一定意味着貪婪，但不合理的估值確實如此。如今，即使是像沃爾瑪和好市多這樣的安全股息股票，其交易估值也遠高於多年的平均水平。</p>
</div><p>In this situation, investors should make sure that they're well diversified with anchor stocks that can protect their funds in the case of a downturn, and be choosy about new stock purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，投資者應確保他們的投資組合多樣化，擁有能夠在經濟下滑時保護資金的核心股票，並在新股票購買時保持謹慎。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy stock in Walmart right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在應該購買沃爾瑪的股票嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Before you buy stock in Walmart, consider this:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你購買沃爾瑪的股票之前，請考慮以下幾點：</p>
</div><p>The <em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> analyst team just identified what they believe are the <strong>10 best stocks</strong> for investors to buy now… and Walmart wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> 分析團隊剛剛確定了他們認為的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong> 供投資者現在購買……而沃爾瑪並不在其中。這 10 只股票可能在未來幾年內產生鉅額回報。</p>
</div><p>Consider when <strong>Netflix</strong> made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $439,632</strong>!* Or when <strong>Nvidia</strong> made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $1,316,532</strong>!*</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮一下 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日進入這個名單時……如果你在我們推薦時投資了 1,000 美元，<strong>你將擁有 439,632 美元</strong>！* 或者當 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日進入這個名單時……如果你在我們推薦時投資了 1,000 美元，<strong>你將擁有 1,316,532 美元</strong>！*</p>
</div><p>Now, it’s worth noting <em>Stock Advisor’s</em> total average return is 960% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 211% for the S&amp;P 500. <strong>Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with <em>Stock Advisor</em>, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在值得注意的是，<em>Stock Advisor</em> 的總平均回報率為 960%——相比之下，標普 500 的回報率為 211%。<strong>不要錯過最新的前 10 名股票名單，加入由個人投資者為個人投資者建立的投資社區。</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>See the 10 stocks »</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看這 10 只股票 »</strong></p>
</div><p><em>*Stock Advisor returns as of June 4, 2026.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回報截至 2026 年 6 月 4 日。</em></p>
</div><p><em>Jennifer Saibil has positions in Walmart. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Costco Wholesale and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>詹妮弗·賽比爾持有沃爾瑪的股份。Motley Fool 持有並推薦好市多和沃爾瑪的股份。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
</div><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文中表達的觀點和意見是作者的觀點和意見，並不一定反映納斯達克公司的觀點。</p>
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Did Walmart and Costco Just Trigger a Major Warning for the Market?

- Costco 和 Walmart 近期季度業績表現優異，股價卻下跌。  
- Walmart 警告潛在消費者困境，表明高收入者消費信心強，而低收入者則受壓。  
- S&P 500 估值高，投資者需謹慎選擇，建議多元化投資。

沃爾瑪和開市客是否剛剛觸發了市場的重大警告信號？