<p>高盛發佈了一份商品研究報告，更新了對中國基礎材料和農業部門的盈利預測，以反映年初至今市場價格的變化。該行對商品價格預測進行了小幅調整，降低了鋼鐵、水泥、黃金和紙張行業的盈利預期，同時提高了銅和煤炭的預測。在投資策略方面，該行對煤炭和銅持更為積極的態度，而對鋁和鋰則保持謹慎。</p>
<p>在鋼鐵和水泥行業，高盛指出，儘管中國鋼鐵行業繼續進行 “反內卷” 努力和長期產能削減計劃，但預計到 2026 年產能和生產紀律的實施將被推遲，這意味着利潤率可能會持續疲軟。該行將馬鞍山鋼鐵（00323.HK）的 2026 年盈利預測下調了 12%，至 40%，將其 H 股目標價從 2.5 港元下調至 2.2 港元，並維持中性評級。同時，預計鞍鋼股份（00347.HK）的 2026 年虧損將從之前預測的 40 億人民幣擴大至 48 億人民幣，將其 H 股目標價從 1.2 港元下調至 1.15 港元，並維持賣出評級。</p>
<p>在水泥行業，由於建築需求疲軟，第二季度價格疲軟，但預計隨着中央政府加大基礎設施融資支持，需求將在 2026 年下半年趨於穩定。該行將海螺水泥（00914.HK）、北新建材（02009.HK）、中國建材（03323.HK）和西部水泥（02233.HK）2026 年的盈利預測下調了 0% 至 9%。海螺水泥的 H 股目標價從 28 港元下調至 27 港元，維持買入評級。中國建材的買入評級和 6 港元目標價保持不變。北新建材的 H 股評級維持中性，目標價為 0.7 港元，而西部水泥的賣出評級和 1.1 港元目標價被重申。CR 建築材料科技（01313.HK）維持中性評級，目標價為 1.3 港元。</p>
<p>關於煤炭，高盛預計基本面將保持積極，受到煤化工需求上升、進口減少和強季節性的支持。該行將 2026 年秦皇島 5500 大卡動力煤的現貨價格預測上調了每噸 70 元。因此，將中國神華（01088.HK）、中國煤炭（01898.HK）和兗礦能源（01171.HK）的 2026 年盈利預測上調了 9% 至 17%。兗礦能源的 H 股目標價從 12.5 港元上調至 15 港元；然而，其 A 股評級被下調至賣出，目標價從 16 元上調至 19 元。中國神華的 H 股目標價從 40 港元上調至 45 港元，維持中性評級，而中國煤炭的 H 股目標價從 16 港元上調至 18 港元，維持買入評級。</p>
<p>關於黃金，儘管高盛將 2026 年黃金價格預測下調了 5%，至每盎司 4809 美元，但其全球商品團隊對黃金的結構性看漲態度依然不變。該行將招金礦業（01818.HK）的 2026 年盈利預測下調了 3%，並將其目標價從 43 港元下調至 42 港元，同時維持買入評級。紫金礦業（02899.HK）維持買入評級，目標價為 51 港元。</p>
<p>對於銅股，高盛將 MMG（01208.HK）的目標價從 13.5 港元上調至 14 港元，維持買入評級。該行對江西銅業（00358.HK）和中信礦業（03993.HK）維持買入評級，H 股目標價分別為 45 港元和 25 港元。</p>
<p>在鋁方面，高盛預計新產能擴張將從 2026 年下半年開始加速，鋁價差將逐漸正常化。該行將中國鋁業（02600.HK）和中國宏橋（01378.HK）2026-2028 年的盈利預測下調了 0% 至 1%。中國鋁業的 H 股目標價維持在 12.5 港元，重申中性評級，而中國宏橋的 H 股目標價維持在 34 港元，重申中性評級。</p>

海螺水泥

馬鋼股份

中國神華

馬鞍山鋼鐵股份

中國神華(ADR)

紫金礦業

<p>高盛更新了對中國基礎材料和農業部門的盈利預測，並調整了商品價格預測。它下調了對鋼鐵、水泥、黃金和紙張的預期，同時上調了對銅和煤炭的預期。該銀行對煤炭和銅持積極態度，但對鋁和鋰持謹慎態度。包括馬鞍山鋼鐵、海螺水泥、中國神華和紫金礦業在內的多家公司目標價格和評級也進行了調整</p>

<p>G Sachs published a commodities research report updating its earnings forecasts for China’s basic materials and agriculture sectors to reflect year-to-date changes in market prices. The bank made slight adjustments to its commodity price forecasts, lowering earnings estimates for the steel, cement, gold and paper sectors, while raising forecasts for copper and coal. In terms of investment strategy, it is more constructive on coal and copper, while maintaining a cautious stance on aluminum and lithium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛發佈了一份商品研究報告，更新了對中國基礎材料和農業部門的盈利預測，以反映年初至今市場價格的變化。該行對商品價格預測進行了小幅調整，降低了鋼鐵、水泥、黃金和紙張行業的盈利預期，同時提高了銅和煤炭的預測。在投資策略方面，該行對煤炭和銅持更為積極的態度，而對鋁和鋰則保持謹慎。</p>
</div><p>For the steel and cement sectors, G Sachs noted that although China’s steel industry continues its “anti-involution” efforts and long-term capacity reduction plans, implementation of capacity and production discipline in 2026 is expected to be delayed, meaning weak profit margins may persist. The bank lowered MAANSHAN IRON (00323.HK) -0.020 (-1.093%)  Short selling $1.16M; Ratio 14.905%  ’s 2026 earnings forecast by 12% to 40%, cutting its H-share TP from HKD2.5 to HKD2.2 and maintaining a Neutral rating. It also expects ANGANG STEEL (00347.HK) -0.010 (-0.820%)  Short selling $914.36K; Ratio 20.541%  ’s 2026 loss to widen from the previously forecast RMB4 billion to RMB4.8 billion, lowering its H-share TP from HKD1.2 to HKD1.15 and maintaining a Sell rating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在鋼鐵和水泥行業，高盛指出，儘管中國鋼鐵行業繼續進行 “反內卷” 努力和長期產能削減計劃，但預計到 2026 年產能和生產紀律的實施將被推遲，這意味着利潤率可能會持續疲軟。該行將馬鞍山鋼鐵（00323.HK）的 2026 年盈利預測下調了 12%，至 40%，將其 H 股目標價從 2.5 港元下調至 2.2 港元，並維持中性評級。同時，預計鞍鋼股份（00347.HK）的 2026 年虧損將從之前預測的 40 億人民幣擴大至 48 億人民幣，將其 H 股目標價從 1.2 港元下調至 1.15 港元，並維持賣出評級。</p>
</div><p>In the cement sector, pricing was soft in the second quarter due to weak construction demand, but demand is expected to stabilize in 2H26 as the central government steps up infrastructure financing support. The bank trimmed 2026 earnings forecasts for CONCH CEMENT (00914.HK) -0.360 (-1.977%)  Short selling $18.48M; Ratio 41.217%  , BBMG (02009.HK) 0.000 (0.000%)  Short selling $443.10K; Ratio 37.214%  , CNBM (03323.HK) +0.370 (+8.259%)  Short selling $53.04M; Ratio 22.876%  and WESTCHINACEMENT (02233.HK) -0.010 (-0.526%)  Short selling $1.70M; Ratio 3.472%  by 0% to 9%. CONCH CEMENT’s H-share TP was lowered from HKD28 to HKD27 with a Buy rating maintained. CNBM’s Buy rating and HKD6 TP were maintained. BBMG’s H-share rating was kept at Neutral with a TP of HKD0.7, while WESTCHINACEMENT’s Sell rating and HKD1.1 TP were reiterated. CR BLDG MAT TEC (01313.HK) +0.020 (+1.724%)  Short selling $1.68M; Ratio 19.302%  was reaffirmed at Neutral with a TP of HKD1.3.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在水泥行業，由於建築需求疲軟，第二季度價格疲軟，但預計隨着中央政府加大基礎設施融資支持，需求將在 2026 年下半年趨於穩定。該行將海螺水泥（00914.HK）、北新建材（02009.HK）、中國建材（03323.HK）和西部水泥（02233.HK）2026 年的盈利預測下調了 0% 至 9%。海螺水泥的 H 股目標價從 28 港元下調至 27 港元，維持買入評級。中國建材的買入評級和 6 港元目標價保持不變。北新建材的 H 股評級維持中性，目標價為 0.7 港元，而西部水泥的賣出評級和 1.1 港元目標價被重申。CR 建築材料科技（01313.HK）維持中性評級，目標價為 1.3 港元。</p>
</div><p>On coal, G Sachs expects fundamentals to remain positive, supported by rising coal chemical demand, reduced imports and strong seasonality. It raised its 2026 spot price forecast for Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal thermal coal by RMB70 per tonne. Accordingly, it lifted 2026 earnings forecasts for CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK) -0.620 (-1.333%)  Short selling $117.91M; Ratio 40.448%  , CHINA COAL (01898.HK) -0.300 (-2.344%)  Short selling $15.56M; Ratio 12.554%  and YANKUANG ENERGY (01171.HK) -0.660 (-4.314%)  Short selling $38.12M; Ratio 13.977%  by 9% to 17%. YANKUANG ENERGY’s H-share TP was increased from HKD12.5 to HKD15; however, its A-share rating for YANKUANG ENERGY (600188.SH) -0.430 (-1.706%)  was downgraded to Sell, with the TP raised from RMB16 to RMB19. CHINA SHENHUA’s H-share TP was raised from HKD40 to HKD45 with a Neutral rating, while CHINA COAL’s H-share TP was lifted from HKD16 to HKD18 with a Buy rating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於煤炭，高盛預計基本面將保持積極，受到煤化工需求上升、進口減少和強季節性的支持。該行將 2026 年秦皇島 5500 大卡動力煤的現貨價格預測上調了每噸 70 元。因此，將中國神華（01088.HK）、中國煤炭（01898.HK）和兗礦能源（01171.HK）的 2026 年盈利預測上調了 9% 至 17%。兗礦能源的 H 股目標價從 12.5 港元上調至 15 港元；然而，其 A 股評級被下調至賣出，目標價從 16 元上調至 19 元。中國神華的 H 股目標價從 40 港元上調至 45 港元，維持中性評級，而中國煤炭的 H 股目標價從 16 港元上調至 18 港元，維持買入評級。</p>
</div><p>Regarding gold, although G Sachs cut its 2026 gold price forecast by 5% to USD4,809 per ounce, its global commodities team remains structurally bullish on gold. It lowered ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK) +0.020 (+0.105%)  Short selling $8.16M; Ratio 7.142%  ’s 2026 earnings forecast by 3% and reduced its TP from HKD43 to HKD42, while maintaining a Buy rating. ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK) -0.583 (-1.873%)  Short selling $118.15M; Ratio 11.076%  was reiterated at Buy with a TP of HKD51.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於黃金，儘管高盛將 2026 年黃金價格預測下調了 5%，至每盎司 4809 美元，但其全球商品團隊對黃金的結構性看漲態度依然不變。該行將招金礦業（01818.HK）的 2026 年盈利預測下調了 3%，並將其目標價從 43 港元下調至 42 港元，同時維持買入評級。紫金礦業（02899.HK）維持買入評級，目標價為 51 港元。</p>
</div><p>For copper stocks, G Sachs raised MMG (01208.HK) -0.120 (-1.439%)  Short selling $32.09M; Ratio 14.560%  ’s TP from HKD13.5 to HKD14 with a Buy rating. It maintained Buy ratings on JIANGXI COPPER (00358.HK) -0.500 (-1.491%)  Short selling $12.89M; Ratio 10.000%  and CMOC (03993.HK) -0.420 (-2.479%)  Short selling $56.03M; Ratio 16.505%  , with H-share TPs of HKD45 and HKD25, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於銅股，高盛將 MMG（01208.HK）的目標價從 13.5 港元上調至 14 港元，維持買入評級。該行對江西銅業（00358.HK）和中信礦業（03993.HK）維持買入評級，H 股目標價分別為 45 港元和 25 港元。</p>
</div><p>In aluminum, G Sachs expects new capacity expansion to accelerate from 2H26 onward, with aluminum price spreads gradually normalizing. It slightly lowered 2026-2028 earnings forecasts for CHALCO (02600.HK) -0.190 (-1.877%)  Short selling $39.21M; Ratio 15.546%  and CHINAHONGQIAO (01378.HK) -0.140 (-0.523%)  Short selling $117.46M; Ratio 23.265%  by 0% to 1%. CHALCO’s H-share TP was kept at HKD12.5 with a Neutral rating reiterated, while CHINAHONGQIAO’s H-share TP was maintained at HKD34 with a Neutral rating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在鋁方面，高盛預計新產能擴張將從 2026 年下半年開始加速，鋁價差將逐漸正常化。該行將中國鋁業（02600.HK）和中國宏橋（01378.HK）2026-2028 年的盈利預測下調了 0% 至 1%。中國鋁業的 H 股目標價維持在 12.5 港元，重申中性評級，而中國宏橋的 H 股目標價維持在 34 港元，重申中性評級。</p>
</div>

G Sachs Adjusts Earnings Forecasts for China Commodities and Basic Materials Stocks, Raises TP for Coal Stocks

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鞍鋼股份

金隅集團

中國建材

西部水泥

華潤建材科技

中煤能源

兗礦能源

招金礦業

五礦資源

江西銅業股份

江西銅業

洛陽鉬業

中國鋁業

中國宏橋

CHINA NATIONAL BUILDING MATERIAL CO UNSP ADR EACH REPR 50 ORD

高盛調整了對中國大宗商品和基礎材料股票的盈利預測，並上調了煤炭股票的目標價格