<p>週二，銀價下跌，跌幅超過 4%，約為每盎司 65 美元，因為市場出現風險規避潮，交易員們加大了對美聯儲在年末再次加息的押注。</p>
<p>這一走勢延續了近年來貴金屬市場上最劇烈的反轉之一。銀價——由 <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong> 追蹤——目前已從 2026 年 1 月底創下的 121.64 美元的歷史高點下跌了約 47%。</p>
<p>該金屬還跌破了 200 日移動平均線，這是自 2025 年 4 月以來首次出現這種情況。10 日相對強弱指數進一步下滑，處於超賣區域。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/09133945/image-211-1024x809.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/09133945/image-211-1024x809.png"/></p>
<h2>美聯儲是催化劑</h2>
<p>銀價近期下跌的原因是美聯儲政策的急劇重新定價。持續的高通脹數據和強於預期的勞動力市場推動市場走向更緊縮的政策，而非寬鬆。</p>
<p>美國的通脹率在 4 月份躍升至 3.8%，為近三年來的最高水平，經濟學家預計消費者價格指數在 5 月份將出現 4.2% 的年增幅。</p>
<p>與此同時，勞動力市場意外向好。上個月非農就業人數增長了 172,000，遠超 85,000 的預期，並且 3 月和 4 月的修正數據上調了 93,000。</p>
<p>CME FedWatch 目前將 2026 年 10 月會議加息 25 個基點的概率評估為 61%，將目標區間從當前的 3.50%-3.75% 上調至 3.75%-4.00%。</p>
<p>到 2026 年 12 月的會議，25 個基點的加息幾乎已完全被市場定價，概率約為 96%。</p>
<p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>特朗普的降息夢想遭遇阻礙：沃什可能被迫加息</strong></p>
<h2>阿爾的皺紋</h2>
<p>銀價還受到本週科技股波動的影響。</p>
<p>投資者越來越將該金屬視為人工智能建設的替代品，因為它在電子和電力基礎設施中作為工業原料的作用。</p>
<p>週二，<strong>科技選擇行業 SPDR 基金</strong> 下跌超過 3%，而 iShares 半導體行業 ETF 下跌 3.7%。</p>
<h2>22V 研究預計未來價格將下跌</h2>
<p><strong>約翰·羅克</strong>，22V 研究的技術分析師，對貴金屬的損害是否已經結束表示懷疑。他指出，黃金和白銀仍然發出未來將進一步下跌的信號。</p>
<p>首先，未能反彈的超賣資產往往會加劇自身的弱勢。</p>
<p>其次，自 1 月份高峰以來形成的價格區間過於寬廣，他將其比作深而難以穿越的峽谷，遠遠超出之前上升趨勢所定義的狹窄、有序的區間。</p>
<p>第三，市場情緒看起來偏離：他説他現在收到的關於購買黃金和白銀的問題比 2024-2025 年持續上漲期間還要多。</p>
<p>根據羅克的説法，這種組合是個問題。“持續的樂觀情緒和惡化的動能狀況，往往只有通過價格下跌才能解決，” 他在一封電子郵件中寫道。</p>
<p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>美光、馬維爾和 Arm 股票圖表發出相同警告——其中一隻仍然看起來便宜</strong></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>

實物白銀股票 ETF - ETFS

白銀信託 ETF - iShares

SLVR

2 倍做空白銀 ETF - ProShares

PSLV

2 倍做多白銀 ETF - ProShares

<p>銀價從 1 月份的記錄中暴跌近 50%，這主要是由於因高通脹和強勁的勞動數據而激增的對美聯儲加息的押注。該金屬在更廣泛的風險規避情緒和科技股波動中跌破了其 200 日移動平均線。分析師警告稱，動能惡化和持續的看漲情緒可能預示着價格進一步下跌</p>

<p>Silver prices fell Tuesday, sliding more than 4% to around $65 an ounce as a risk-off wave swept through markets and traders ramped up bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週二，銀價下跌，跌幅超過 4%，約為每盎司 65 美元，因為市場出現風險規避潮，交易員們加大了對美聯儲在年末再次加息的押注。</p>
</div><p>The move extends one of the most violent reversals in the precious-metals complex in years. Silver – as tracked by the <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong> (NYSE: SLV) – has now collapsed roughly 47% from its record high of $121.64, set in late January 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一走勢延續了近年來貴金屬市場上最劇烈的反轉之一。銀價——由 <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong> 追蹤——目前已從 2026 年 1 月底創下的 121.64 美元的歷史高點下跌了約 47%。</p>
</div><p>The metal has also broken below its 200-day moving average, the first such breach since April 2025. The 10-day relative strength index is further falling in an oversold territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該金屬還跌破了 200 日移動平均線，這是自 2025 年 4 月以來首次出現這種情況。10 日相對強弱指數進一步下滑，處於超賣區域。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/09133945/image-211-1024x809.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/09133945/image-211-1024x809.png"/></p>
<h2>The Fed Is The Catalyst</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美聯儲是催化劑</h2>
</div><p>The driver behind silver’s recent drop has been a sharp repricing of Fed policy. A run of hot inflation prints and a stronger-than-expected labor market have pushed the market toward tighter policy, not easier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銀價近期下跌的原因是美聯儲政策的急劇重新定價。持續的高通脹數據和強於預期的勞動力市場推動市場走向更緊縮的政策，而非寬鬆。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. inflation rate jumped to 3.8% annually in April – the highest in nearly three years – with economists expecting the Consumer Price Index to print a 4.2% annual surge in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國的通脹率在 4 月份躍升至 3.8%，為近三年來的最高水平，經濟學家預計消費者價格指數在 5 月份將出現 4.2% 的年增幅。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the job market surprised to the upside. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 172,000 last month, smashing estimates of 85,000 and following a 93,000 upward revision for March and April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，勞動力市場意外向好。上個月非農就業人數增長了 172,000，遠超 85,000 的預期，並且 3 月和 4 月的修正數據上調了 93,000。</p>
</div><p>CME FedWatch now assigns a 61% probability of a 25-basis-point hike by the October 2026 meeting, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4.00% from the current 3.50%-3.75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CME FedWatch 目前將 2026 年 10 月會議加息 25 個基點的概率評估為 61%，將目標區間從當前的 3.50%-3.75% 上調至 3.75%-4.00%。</p>
</div><p>By the December 2026 meeting, a quarter-point hike is all but fully priced, at roughly 96%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到 2026 年 12 月的會議，25 個基點的加息幾乎已完全被市場定價，概率約為 96%。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Trump's Rate-Cut Dream Hits A Wall: Warsh May Be Forced To Hike</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>特朗普的降息夢想遭遇阻礙：沃什可能被迫加息</strong></p>
</div><h2>The Al Wrinkle</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿爾的皺紋</h2>
</div><p>Silver also caught a downdraft from this week’s volatility in technology stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銀價還受到本週科技股波動的影響。</p>
</div><p>Investors have increasingly treated the metal as a proxy for the artificial-intelligence buildout, given its role as an industrial input across electronics and power infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者越來越將該金屬視為人工智能建設的替代品，因為它在電子和電力基礎設施中作為工業原料的作用。</p>
</div><p>On Tuesday, the <strong>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund</strong> (NYSE: XLK) sunk over 3%, while the iShares Semiconductor Sector ETF (NASDAQ: SOXX) fell 3.7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週二，<strong>科技選擇行業 SPDR 基金</strong> 下跌超過 3%，而 iShares 半導體行業 ETF 下跌 3.7%。</p>
</div><h2>22V Research Sees Lower Prices Ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>22V 研究預計未來價格將下跌</h2>
</div><p><strong>John Roque</strong>, technical analyst at 22V Research, is unconvinced the damage in precious metals is done. He indicated that both gold and silver continue to signal lower levels ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>約翰·羅克</strong>，22V 研究的技術分析師，對貴金屬的損害是否已經結束表示懷疑。他指出，黃金和白銀仍然發出未來將進一步下跌的信號。</p>
</div><p>First, oversold assets that fail to rally tend to reinforce their own weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，未能反彈的超賣資產往往會加劇自身的弱勢。</p>
</div><p>Second, the price ranges carved out since the January peaks are far too wide, so wide he likens them to deep, hard-to-navigate chasms, well beyond the narrow, orderly ranges that defined the prior uptrend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，自 1 月份高峰以來形成的價格區間過於寬廣，他將其比作深而難以穿越的峽谷，遠遠超出之前上升趨勢所定義的狹窄、有序的區間。</p>
</div><p>Third, sentiment looks offside: he says he is fielding more questions about buying gold and silver now than he did during the sustained 2024-2025 rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，市場情緒看起來偏離：他説他現在收到的關於購買黃金和白銀的問題比 2024-2025 年持續上漲期間還要多。</p>
</div><p>Per Roque, that combination is the problem. “Continued bullish sentiment and deteriorating momentum conditions is, quite often, a situation that is only solved by lower prices,” he wrote in an emailed note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據羅克的説法，這種組合是個問題。“持續的樂觀情緒和惡化的動能狀況，往往只有通過價格下跌才能解決，” 他在一封電子郵件中寫道。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Micron, Marvell and Arm Stock Charts Flash The Same Warning — One Still Looks Cheap</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>美光、馬維爾和 Arm 股票圖表發出相同警告——其中一隻仍然看起來便宜</strong></p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Wall Street's 2025 Favorite Trade Has Fallen Nearly 50% From Records: Is This A Buy Window?

benzinga_article

WisdomTree Silver

Sprott PHYs Silver

高科技指數 ETF - SPDR

費城交易所 半導體 ETF - iShares

美光科技

邁威爾科技

華爾街 2025 年的熱門交易已從歷史高點下跌近 50%：這是否是一個買入的機會？