<p>Lekker Capital 的 <strong>Quinn Thompson</strong> 建議在夏季避免投資加密貨幣，並在第三季度末再回歸，理由是創紀錄的 IPO 供應、流動性減弱以及 <strong>Strategy</strong> (NASDAQ: MSTR) 和 <strong>Bitmine</strong> (NASDAQ: BMNR) 的未解決問題。</p>
<h3>三個逆風使得夏季加密貨幣投資風險加大</h3>
<p>Thompson 的看跌觀點基於三種 重疊 的壓力同時出現。</p>
<p>SpaceX、Anthropic 和 OpenAI 正在共同為市場帶來超過 3 萬億美元的新 IPO 供應，直接與現有科技公司爭奪資本。</p>
<p>歷史上引領牛市的 Mag7 股票表現滯後，而納斯達克的其他股票則在支撐指數，Thompson 將這種模式描述為經典的晚週期行為。</p>
<p>與此同時，STRC 正在接近自推出以來的最嚴重回撤，Thompson 預計 Strategy 將把股息提高 50 個基點，而不是通常的 25 個基點，這將增加其現金負擔。</p>
<p>“我的建議是夏季避免加密市場，因為即使沒有嚴重的逆風，它在接下來的幾個月裏也往往會掙扎，” Thompson 寫道。“在第三季度末再重新關注。”</p>
<h3>威脅整個科技行業的超大規模公司囚徒困境</h3>
<p>Thompson 指出了他所稱的主要雲公司面臨的囚徒困境。如果他們繼續在 AI 基礎設施上花費，現金流和回購將下降，股票表現滯後。</p>
<p>如果他們削減支出以恢復資產負債表，半導體和 AI 供應鏈公司將崩潰，導致更廣泛的科技指數下跌。</p>
<p>無論哪條路徑都將導致科技價格下跌，從而減少原本會流入 <strong>Bitcoin</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) 和加密貨幣的資本。</p>
<p>Thompson 指出，已有超過 140 個活動組織在 24 個州阻止了超過 640 億美元的數據中心開發。</p>
<p>他還提到 <strong>Trump</strong> 之前曾表示科技公司應該為自己的電力成本買單，他預計這一信息將在中期選舉前再次出現。</p>
<h3>為什麼日本和日本央行本月值得關注</h3>
<p>Thompson 提出了一個額外的風險。美元兑日元接近近 50 年來的第四高周收盤價，而日本央行會議定於 6 月 FOMC 之前的前一天召開。</p>
<p>如果日本不利用這個窗口來加強日元，Thompson 預計將突破 160，這將是日本政策制定者強烈希望避免的，並可能同時引發所有風險資產的波動。</p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>

STRC

STRF

MSTR

<p>Lekker Capital 的 Quinn Thompson 建議在夏季避免投資比特幣、以太坊和 XRP 等加密資產，推薦在第三季度末再考慮迴歸。這一看跌立場主要受到三個因素的驅動：主要科技公司創紀錄的 IPO 供應競爭資本、流動性減弱，以及 Strategy (MSTR) 和 Bitmine (BMNR) 尚未解決的財務問題。此外，AI 基礎設施支出的 “囚徒困境” 威脅着科技股，而日本銀行可能對美元/日元匯率的干預則給風險資產帶來了進一步的宏觀經濟風險</p>

<p>Lekker Capital’s <strong>Quinn Thompson</strong> advocates avoiding crypto for the summer and return in late Q3, citing record IPO supply, waning liquidity, and unresolved problems at <strong>Strategy</strong> (NASDAQ: MSTR) and <strong>Bitmine</strong> (NASDAQ: BMNR).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lekker Capital 的 <strong>Quinn Thompson</strong> 建議在夏季避免投資加密貨幣，並在第三季度末再回歸，理由是創紀錄的 IPO 供應、流動性減弱以及 <strong>Strategy</strong> (NASDAQ: MSTR) 和 <strong>Bitmine</strong> (NASDAQ: BMNR) 的未解決問題。</p>
</div><h3>Three Headwinds Making Summer Crypto Dangerous Right Now</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>三個逆風使得夏季加密貨幣投資風險加大</h3>
</div><p>Thompson’s bearish case rests on three overlapping pressures hitting simultaneously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Thompson 的看跌觀點基於三種 重疊 的壓力同時出現。</p>
</div><p>SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are collectively bringing more than $3 trillion in new IPO supply to market, competing directly with existing tech names for capital.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SpaceX、Anthropic 和 OpenAI 正在共同為市場帶來超過 3 萬億美元的新 IPO 供應，直接與現有科技公司爭奪資本。</p>
</div><p>The Mag7 stocks that historically lead bull markets are lagging while the rest of the Nasdaq carries the index, a pattern Thompson describes as classic late-cycle behavior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上引領牛市的 Mag7 股票表現滯後，而納斯達克的其他股票則在支撐指數，Thompson 將這種模式描述為經典的晚週期行為。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, STRC is approaching one of its worst drawdowns since launch, and Thompson expects Strategy to raise its dividend by 50 basis points rather than the usual 25, adding to its cash obligations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，STRC 正在接近自推出以來的最嚴重回撤，Thompson 預計 Strategy 將把股息提高 50 個基點，而不是通常的 25 個基點，這將增加其現金負擔。</p>
</div><p>“My recommendation is to avoid the crypto market for the summer as it tends to struggle during the coming months even when there isn’t a barrage of severe headwinds in its way,” Thompson wrote. “Pick it back up in late Q3.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我的建議是夏季避免加密市場，因為即使沒有嚴重的逆風，它在接下來的幾個月裏也往往會掙扎，” Thompson 寫道。“在第三季度末再重新關注。”</p>
</div><h3>The Hyperscaler Prisoner’s Dilemma That Threatens The Entire Tech Complex</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>威脅整個科技行業的超大規模公司囚徒困境</h3>
</div><p>Thompson identified what he calls a prisoner’s dilemma facing major cloud companies. If they keep spending on AI infrastructure, free cash flow and buybacks decline and their equities lag.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Thompson 指出了他所稱的主要雲公司面臨的囚徒困境。如果他們繼續在 AI 基礎設施上花費，現金流和回購將下降，股票表現滯後。</p>
</div><p>If they cut spending to restore balance sheets, semiconductor and AI supply chain names crash, taking the broader tech index down with them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果他們削減支出以恢復資產負債表，半導體和 AI 供應鏈公司將崩潰，導致更廣泛的科技指數下跌。</p>
</div><p>Either path leads to lower tech prices, which removes capital that would otherwise flow into <strong>Bitcoin</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) and crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論哪條路徑都將導致科技價格下跌，從而減少原本會流入 <strong>Bitcoin</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) 和加密貨幣的資本。</p>
</div><p>Thompson pointed to 140-plus activist groups across 24 states already blocking over $64 billion in data center development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Thompson 指出，已有超過 140 個活動組織在 24 個州阻止了超過 640 億美元的數據中心開發。</p>
</div><p>He also noted <strong>Trump</strong> previously signaled tech companies should pay for their own power costs, a message he expects to return ahead of midterms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他還提到 <strong>Trump</strong> 之前曾表示科技公司應該為自己的電力成本買單，他預計這一信息將在中期選舉前再次出現。</p>
</div><h3>Why Japan And The BOJ Deserve Attention This Month</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>為什麼日本和日本央行本月值得關注</h3>
</div><p>Thompson flagged one additional risk. USDJPY is approaching its fourth highest weekly close in nearly 50 years, with a Bank of Japan meeting scheduled the day before the June FOMC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Thompson 提出了一個額外的風險。美元兑日元接近近 50 年來的第四高周收盤價，而日本央行會議定於 6 月 FOMC 之前的前一天召開。</p>
</div><p>If Japan does not use that window to strengthen the yen, Thompson expects a breakout above 160, which Japanese policymakers will strongly want to avoid and which could trigger volatility across all risk assets at once.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果日本不利用這個窗口來加強日元，Thompson 預計將突破 160，這將是日本政策制定者強烈希望避免的，並可能同時引發所有風險資產的波動。</p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

'Avoid Crypto For The Summer': This Analyst Says Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Are No Good For Now

benzinga_article

Microstrategy Inc Pref Shares STRC 9.0 Perp

MicroStrategy Pref Shares MSTR 10.0 Perp

Strategy

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC - ETF

Grayscale Ethereum Staking ETF

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BitMine Immersion Tech

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IShares Ethereum Trust ETF

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Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF

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Leverage Shares 2X Long BMNR Daily ETF

Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF

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Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd MSTRMnETF

Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

Grayscale XRP Trust ETF

Canary XRP ETF

T-REX 2X Long BMNR Daily Target ETF

MSTR 期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

Proshares Ether Strategy ETF

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

Grayscale Ethereum Mini Staking ETF

Defiance Leveraged Long + Inc MSTR ETF

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

Bitwise XRP ETF

Fidelity Ethereum Fund

GraniteShares 2x Long MSTR Daily ETF

Franklin Bitcoin ETF

Roundhill MSTR WeeklyPay ETF

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2 倍做多 MSTR ETF - Defiance

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ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF

ETC Holdings Ltd. (Guernsey)

博時比特幣

華夏比特幣

MBC比特幣

Bitwise MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF

GraniteShares 2x Short MSTR Daily ETF

YieldMax MSTR Perf & Dis Trgt 25 ETF

YieldMax MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF

GraniteShares YieldBoost MSTR ETF

OpenAI

納斯達克綜合指數

BITMINE IMMERSION TECNOLOGIES INC

“夏季避開加密貨幣”：這位分析師稱，比特幣、以太坊和 XRP 目前不值得投資