<p>要點：</p>
<ul>
<li>美聯儲的鷹派重新定價、美元走強、美伊緊張局勢以及中國需求減弱都對商品價格造成了衝擊，導致大型礦業公司平均下跌約 10%。</li>
<li>黃金已經抹去了年初的輝煌開局。在一月份飆升近 30% 後，目前年初至今下跌約 5%，經歷了 9.2% 的六天滑落。</li>
<li>結構性順風仍然存在。人工智能驅動的資本支出、國防開支上升以及缺乏新供應都支持需求，儘管目前波動性極大。</li>
</ul>
<p>談談這個轉折。S&amp;P/ASX 200 材料指數從 6 月 3 日的歷史高點，經歷了五天的下滑，損失高達 11%，其中黃金、鈾和鋰礦的跌幅更為明顯。</p>
<p>商品價格（不包括能源）在過去一夜繼續下跌，大多數商品在過去六個交易日中錄得大幅下跌。像黃金這樣的高飛商品，在年初的前四周上漲近 30%，現在年初至今下跌約 5%。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>商品</th>
<th>變動 %</th>
<th>6 天 %</th>
<th>收盤價 (美元)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>黃金</td>
<td>-4.45%</td>
<td>-9.20%</td>
<td>$4,071</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>鉑金</td>
<td>-3.66%</td>
<td>-14.10%</td>
<td>$1,663</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>白銀</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
<td>-15.70%</td>
<td>$63.37</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>銅</td>
<td>-2.23%</td>
<td>-7.00%</td>
<td>$6.24</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>鋅</td>
<td>-2.15%</td>
<td>-4.60%</td>
<td>$3,439</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>鎳</td>
<td>-1.48%</td>
<td>-7.70%</td>
<td>$17,651</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>鈀金</td>
<td>-1.10%</td>
<td>-11.20%</td>
<td>$1,214</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>鋁</td>
<td>-1.02%</td>
<td>-7.00%</td>
<td>$3,484</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>鐵礦石期貨</td>
<td>20.00%</td>
<td>-3.50%</td>
<td>$101.85</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>來源：市場指數</p>
<p>黃金價格圖表（來源：TradingView）</p>
<p>今天的拋售似乎已經減弱，材料指數從 2.7% 的低點反彈，目前僅下跌 0.50%。大多數商品價格在週四也開始反彈，黃金上漲 1.0%，銅上漲 0.85%。</p>
<p>是什麼導致商品價格下跌</p>
<p>商品拋售是由多種因素驅動的，包括：</p>
<ul>
<li>美聯儲的加息預期轉為鷹派，週四的 5 月核心 CPI 同比增長 2.9%（自 9 月 25 日以來最高），整體 CPI 為 4.2%（自 4 月 23 日以來最高），市場現在預計到 12 月將加息 25 個基點，甚至可能有兩次加息，這對無收益的美元計價商品顯然是負面影響。</li>
<li>由於鷹派利率重新定價，美元走強，美元指數接近 100 水平。該指數在過去一年中大多橫盤交易，主要在 96 到 100 之間，儘管近期的上行壓力影響了商品價格。</li>
<li>美伊緊張局勢導致風險規避流動，而非商品需求，隨着美國在霍爾木茲海峽附近進行第二天的空襲，伊朗對四個美國基地的報復打擊影響了全球股市。</li>
<li>中國需求背景正在減弱，5 月 CPI 同比增長 1.2%，低於 1.3% 的預期，核心 CPI 降至 1.1%，而 PPI 因進口能源成本達到四年來的高點 3.9%，這種滯漲的組合削弱了全球最大金屬消費國的牛市前景。</li>
</ul>
<p>礦業公司一覽</p>
<p>大多數大型公司今天早盤開盤大幅下跌，但在下午交易中開始反彈。平均礦業公司本週下跌約 10%。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票代碼</th>
<th>公司</th>
<th>變動 %</th>
<th>價格</th>
<th>1 周 %</th>
<th>年初至今 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>BHP</td>
<td>BHP</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$60.46</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>32.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RIO</td>
<td>Rio Tinto</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>$179.74</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>22.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FMG</td>
<td>Fortescue</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>$19.31</td>
<td>-12.1%</td>
<td>-12.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NST</td>
<td>Northern Star Resources</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>$18.38</td>
<td>-12.5%</td>
<td>-25.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>AMC</td>
<td>Amcor</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>$54.71</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>-12.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EVN</td>
<td>Evolution Mining</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>$10.79</td>
<td>-11.9%</td>
<td>-14.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S32</td>
<td>South32</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>$4.40</td>
<td>-9.2%</td>
<td>23.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>JHX</td>
<td>James Hardie</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>$31.51</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PLS</td>
<td>PLS Group</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>$5.71</td>
<td>-11.0%</td>
<td>35.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>LYC</td>
<td>Lynas Rare Earths</td>
<td>-2.6%</td>
<td>$16.43</td>
<td>-14.9%</td>
<td>32.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>數據截至澳大利亞東部時間上午 11:50</p>
<p>大多數黃金公司也開始從盤中低點反彈。以下列表顯示了按市值計算的十家最大的黃金礦業公司，過去一週平均下跌 12.9%，年初至今下跌 23.6%。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票代碼</th>
<th>公司</th>
<th>變動 %</th>
<th>價格</th>
<th>1 周 %</th>
<th>年初至今 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>NEM</td>
<td>Newmont</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>$132.75</td>
<td>-11.8%</td>
<td>-11.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NST</td>
<td>Northern Star Resources</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>$18.42</td>
<td>-12.3%</td>
<td>-25.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EVN</td>
<td>Evolution Mining</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$10.78</td>
<td>-12.0%</td>
<td>-14.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PRU</td>
<td>Perseus Mining</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>$4.60</td>
<td>-10.6%</td>
<td>-16.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GMD</td>
<td>Genesis Minerals</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
<td>$4.77</td>
<td>-16.7%</td>
<td>-33.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CMM</td>
<td>Capricorn Metals</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>$11.25</td>
<td>-15.3%</td>
<td>-19.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RMS</td>
<td>Ramelius Resources</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$2.83</td>
<td>-12.9%</td>
<td>-30.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>WGX</td>
<td>Westgold Resources</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>$4.49</td>
<td>-12.2%</td>
<td>-28.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RRL</td>
<td>Regis Resources</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>$5.55</td>
<td>-11.9%</td>
<td>-26.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VAU</td>
<td>Vault Minerals</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>$3.81</td>
<td>-13.0%</td>
<td>-30.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>數據截至澳大利亞東部時間上午 11:52</p>
<p>高飛的鋰行業也經歷了明顯的回調，儘管大多數大型公司（PLS，MIN）仍保持健康的年初至今收益。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票代碼</th>
<th>公司</th>
<th>變動 %</th>
<th>價格</th>
<th>1 周 %</th>
<th>年初至今 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>PLS</td>
<td>PLS Group</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>$5.71</td>
<td>-11.0%</td>
<td>35.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MIN</td>
<td>Mineral Resources</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>$63.24</td>
<td>-12.8%</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>IGO</td>
<td>IGO</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>$8.31</td>
<td>-12.2%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>LTR</td>
<td>Liontown</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>$1.90</td>
<td>-19.4%</td>
<td>21.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VUL</td>
<td>Vulcan Energy Resources</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>$3.12</td>
<td>-17.8%</td>
<td>-29.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PMT</td>
<td>PMET Resources</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>$0.55</td>
<td>-28.5%</td>
<td>-8.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CXO</td>
<td>Core Lithium</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>$0.25</td>
<td>-16.9%</td>
<td>-10.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>數據截至澳大利亞東部時間上午 11:54</p>
<p>接下來會怎樣？</p>
<p>商品處於一個尷尬的境地。本週拋售的短期催化劑（鷹派美聯儲重新定價、美元走強、美伊緊張局勢和中國需求減弱）都朝着同一個方向發展，而這個方向是下行。</p>
<p>然而，更大的圖景保持不變，人工智能驅動的資本支出、國防開支上升以及更加分裂的地緣政治背景等因素都在推動結構性需求，而沒有顯著的供應響應來滿足這種需求。</p>
<p>去年底，摩根士丹利指出，銅市場正面臨超過二十年來最大的缺口，約為 59 萬噸，到 2029 年將擴大至 110 萬噸。由於新供應幾乎沒有上線，這種局面顯得相當不對稱。儘管如此，銅仍然是銅。它對全球工業活動的起伏、美元的走勢以及情緒的變化極為敏感。這可能就是為什麼我們看到這種金屬在上週創下歷史新高後，僅僅六天後就回落了約 7%。</p>
<p>整體情況看起來是看漲的，但由於全球股市的急劇回調、地緣政治緊張局勢加劇以及通脹壓力的影響，目前的波動性非常非常高。</p>

美國雅寶公司

黃金 MiniShares 信託 - SPDR

廣發中證稀有金屬ETF

<p>ASX 200 材料指數在五天內暴跌 11%，原因是美聯儲的鷹派重新定價、美元走強、美伊緊張局勢以及中國需求減弱。黃金抹去了 1 月的漲幅，而銅和鋰等其他商品也出現下滑。儘管出現了劇烈的拋售，但人工智能資本支出和國防開支等結構性需求驅動因素依然存在，儘管預計短期內波動性仍將保持在高位</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要點：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>A hawkish Fed repricing, firmer US dollar, US-Iran tensions and softening Chinese demand have hit commodity prices, dragging the average large cap miner down roughly 10% this week.</li>
<li>Gold has erased its stellar start to the year. After surging almost 30% in January, it now sits down around 5% year-to-date following a 9.2% six-day slide.</li>
<li>Structural tailwinds remain intact. AI-driven capex, rising defence spending and a lack of new supply all support demand, though volatility is extreme for now.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美聯儲的鷹派重新定價、美元走強、美伊緊張局勢以及中國需求減弱都對商品價格造成了衝擊，導致大型礦業公司平均下跌約 10%。</li>
<li>黃金已經抹去了年初的輝煌開局。在一月份飆升近 30% 後，目前年初至今下跌約 5%，經歷了 9.2% 的六天滑落。</li>
<li>結構性順風仍然存在。人工智能驅動的資本支出、國防開支上升以及缺乏新供應都支持需求，儘管目前波動性極大。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Talk about a U-turn. The S&amp;P/ASX 200 Materials Index went from all-time highs on 3 June, to a five-day skid that wiped out as much as 11%, with more pronounced declines for gold, uranium and lithium miners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>談談這個轉折。S&amp;P/ASX 200 材料指數從 6 月 3 日的歷史高點，經歷了五天的下滑，損失高達 11%，其中黃金、鈾和鋰礦的跌幅更為明顯。</p>
</div><p>Commodity prices (ex-energy) continued to sell off overnight, with most recording sharp declines over the last six sessions. A high-flying commodity like gold, which was up almost 30% in the first four weeks of the year, is now down around 5% year-to-date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商品價格（不包括能源）在過去一夜繼續下跌，大多數商品在過去六個交易日中錄得大幅下跌。像黃金這樣的高飛商品，在年初的前四周上漲近 30%，現在年初至今下跌約 5%。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Commodity</th>
<th>Chg %</th>
<th>6 Days %</th>
<th>Close (US$)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Gold</td>
<td>-4.45%</td>
<td>-9.20%</td>
<td>$4,071</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Platinum</td>
<td>-3.66%</td>
<td>-14.10%</td>
<td>$1,663</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Silver</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
<td>-15.70%</td>
<td>$63.37</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Copper</td>
<td>-2.23%</td>
<td>-7.00%</td>
<td>$6.24</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Zinc</td>
<td>-2.15%</td>
<td>-4.60%</td>
<td>$3,439</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nickel</td>
<td>-1.48%</td>
<td>-7.70%</td>
<td>$17,651</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Palladium</td>
<td>-1.10%</td>
<td>-11.20%</td>
<td>$1,214</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Aluminium</td>
<td>-1.02%</td>
<td>-7.00%</td>
<td>$3,484</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Iron ore futures</td>
<td>20.00%</td>
<td>-3.50%</td>
<td>$101.85</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>商品</th>
<th>變動 %</th>
<th>6 天 %</th>
<th>收盤價 (美元)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>黃金</td>
<td>-4.45%</td>
<td>-9.20%</td>
<td>$4,071</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>鉑金</td>
<td>-3.66%</td>
<td>-14.10%</td>
<td>$1,663</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>白銀</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
<td>-15.70%</td>
<td>$63.37</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>銅</td>
<td>-2.23%</td>
<td>-7.00%</td>
<td>$6.24</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>鋅</td>
<td>-2.15%</td>
<td>-4.60%</td>
<td>$3,439</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>鎳</td>
<td>-1.48%</td>
<td>-7.70%</td>
<td>$17,651</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>鈀金</td>
<td>-1.10%</td>
<td>-11.20%</td>
<td>$1,214</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>鋁</td>
<td>-1.02%</td>
<td>-7.00%</td>
<td>$3,484</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>鐵礦石期貨</td>
<td>20.00%</td>
<td>-3.50%</td>
<td>$101.85</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Source: Market Index</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：市場指數</p>
</div><p>Gold price chart (Source: TradingView)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金價格圖表（來源：TradingView）</p>
</div><p>The selling appears to have subsided today, with the Materials Index bouncing off session lows of 2.7%, currently down just 0.50%. Most commodity prices have also started to bounce on Thursday, with gold up 1.0% and copper up 0.85% at the time of writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的拋售似乎已經減弱，材料指數從 2.7% 的低點反彈，目前僅下跌 0.50%。大多數商品價格在週四也開始反彈，黃金上漲 1.0%，銅上漲 0.85%。</p>
</div><p>What's driving commodities lower</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是什麼導致商品價格下跌</p>
</div><p>The commodities selloff has been driven by a broad range of catalysts, including:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商品拋售是由多種因素驅動的，包括：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Fed rate expectations have turned hawkish, with Thursday's May core CPI running at 2.9% year-on-year (highest since Sep-25) and headline at 4.2% (highest since Apr-23), markets are now pricing in a 25 bp Fed hike by December, with the possibility of two rate hikes, a clear negative for non-yielding USD-denominated commodities.</li>
<li>The US dollar is firmer on the hawkish rate repricing, with US Dollar Index is approaching the 100 level. The index has traded mostly sideways for the past year, mostly between 96 and 100, though recent upside pressures commodities.</li>
<li>US-Iran tensions are driving risk-off flows rather than a commodities bid, with a second day of US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian retaliation against four US bases hitting global equity markets.</li>
<li>China demand backdrop is softening, with May CPI missing at 1.2% y/y vs 1.3% ests and core CPI easing to 1.1%, while PPI hit a four-year high of 3.9% on imported energy costs, a stagflationary mix that dents the bull case for the world's largest metals consumer.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美聯儲的加息預期轉為鷹派，週四的 5 月核心 CPI 同比增長 2.9%（自 9 月 25 日以來最高），整體 CPI 為 4.2%（自 4 月 23 日以來最高），市場現在預計到 12 月將加息 25 個基點，甚至可能有兩次加息，這對無收益的美元計價商品顯然是負面影響。</li>
<li>由於鷹派利率重新定價，美元走強，美元指數接近 100 水平。該指數在過去一年中大多橫盤交易，主要在 96 到 100 之間，儘管近期的上行壓力影響了商品價格。</li>
<li>美伊緊張局勢導致風險規避流動，而非商品需求，隨着美國在霍爾木茲海峽附近進行第二天的空襲，伊朗對四個美國基地的報復打擊影響了全球股市。</li>
<li>中國需求背景正在減弱，5 月 CPI 同比增長 1.2%，低於 1.3% 的預期，核心 CPI 降至 1.1%，而 PPI 因進口能源成本達到四年來的高點 3.9%，這種滯漲的組合削弱了全球最大金屬消費國的牛市前景。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Miners at a glance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>礦業公司一覽</p>
</div><p>Most large caps opened sharply lower this morning, but starting to bounce heading into afternoon trade. The average miner is down around 10% this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數大型公司今天早盤開盤大幅下跌，但在下午交易中開始反彈。平均礦業公司本週下跌約 10%。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Ticker</th>
<th>Company</th>
<th>% Chg</th>
<th>Price</th>
<th>1 Week %</th>
<th>YTD %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>BHP</td>
<td>BHP</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$60.46</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>32.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RIO</td>
<td>Rio Tinto</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>$179.74</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>22.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FMG</td>
<td>Fortescue</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>$19.31</td>
<td>-12.1%</td>
<td>-12.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NST</td>
<td>Northern Star Resources</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>$18.38</td>
<td>-12.5%</td>
<td>-25.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>AMC</td>
<td>Amcor</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>$54.71</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>-12.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EVN</td>
<td>Evolution Mining</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>$10.79</td>
<td>-11.9%</td>
<td>-14.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S32</td>
<td>South32</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>$4.40</td>
<td>-9.2%</td>
<td>23.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>JHX</td>
<td>James Hardie</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>$31.51</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PLS</td>
<td>PLS Group</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>$5.71</td>
<td>-11.0%</td>
<td>35.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>LYC</td>
<td>Lynas Rare Earths</td>
<td>-2.6%</td>
<td>$16.43</td>
<td>-14.9%</td>
<td>32.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票代碼</th>
<th>公司</th>
<th>變動 %</th>
<th>價格</th>
<th>1 周 %</th>
<th>年初至今 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>BHP</td>
<td>BHP</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$60.46</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>32.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RIO</td>
<td>Rio Tinto</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>$179.74</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>22.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FMG</td>
<td>Fortescue</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>$19.31</td>
<td>-12.1%</td>
<td>-12.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NST</td>
<td>Northern Star Resources</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>$18.38</td>
<td>-12.5%</td>
<td>-25.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>AMC</td>
<td>Amcor</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>$54.71</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>-12.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EVN</td>
<td>Evolution Mining</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>$10.79</td>
<td>-11.9%</td>
<td>-14.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S32</td>
<td>South32</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>$4.40</td>
<td>-9.2%</td>
<td>23.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>JHX</td>
<td>James Hardie</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>$31.51</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PLS</td>
<td>PLS Group</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>$5.71</td>
<td>-11.0%</td>
<td>35.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>LYC</td>
<td>Lynas Rare Earths</td>
<td>-2.6%</td>
<td>$16.43</td>
<td>-14.9%</td>
<td>32.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data as at 11:50 am AEST</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據截至澳大利亞東部時間上午 11:50</p>
</div><p>Most gold names have also started to bounce off session lows. The below list features the ten largest gold miners by market cap, which are down an average 12.9% over the past week and down 23.6% year-to-date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數黃金公司也開始從盤中低點反彈。以下列表顯示了按市值計算的十家最大的黃金礦業公司，過去一週平均下跌 12.9%，年初至今下跌 23.6%。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Ticker</th>
<th>Company</th>
<th>% Chg</th>
<th>Price</th>
<th>1 Week %</th>
<th>YTD %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>NEM</td>
<td>Newmont</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>$132.75</td>
<td>-11.8%</td>
<td>-11.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NST</td>
<td>Northern Star Resources</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>$18.42</td>
<td>-12.3%</td>
<td>-25.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EVN</td>
<td>Evolution Mining</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$10.78</td>
<td>-12.0%</td>
<td>-14.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PRU</td>
<td>Perseus Mining</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>$4.60</td>
<td>-10.6%</td>
<td>-16.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GMD</td>
<td>Genesis Minerals</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
<td>$4.77</td>
<td>-16.7%</td>
<td>-33.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CMM</td>
<td>Capricorn Metals</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>$11.25</td>
<td>-15.3%</td>
<td>-19.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RMS</td>
<td>Ramelius Resources</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$2.83</td>
<td>-12.9%</td>
<td>-30.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>WGX</td>
<td>Westgold Resources</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>$4.49</td>
<td>-12.2%</td>
<td>-28.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RRL</td>
<td>Regis Resources</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>$5.55</td>
<td>-11.9%</td>
<td>-26.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VAU</td>
<td>Vault Minerals</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>$3.81</td>
<td>-13.0%</td>
<td>-30.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票代碼</th>
<th>公司</th>
<th>變動 %</th>
<th>價格</th>
<th>1 周 %</th>
<th>年初至今 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>NEM</td>
<td>Newmont</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>$132.75</td>
<td>-11.8%</td>
<td>-11.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NST</td>
<td>Northern Star Resources</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>$18.42</td>
<td>-12.3%</td>
<td>-25.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EVN</td>
<td>Evolution Mining</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$10.78</td>
<td>-12.0%</td>
<td>-14.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PRU</td>
<td>Perseus Mining</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>$4.60</td>
<td>-10.6%</td>
<td>-16.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GMD</td>
<td>Genesis Minerals</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
<td>$4.77</td>
<td>-16.7%</td>
<td>-33.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CMM</td>
<td>Capricorn Metals</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>$11.25</td>
<td>-15.3%</td>
<td>-19.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RMS</td>
<td>Ramelius Resources</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$2.83</td>
<td>-12.9%</td>
<td>-30.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>WGX</td>
<td>Westgold Resources</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>$4.49</td>
<td>-12.2%</td>
<td>-28.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RRL</td>
<td>Regis Resources</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>$5.55</td>
<td>-11.9%</td>
<td>-26.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VAU</td>
<td>Vault Minerals</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>$3.81</td>
<td>-13.0%</td>
<td>-30.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data as at 11:52 am AEST</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據截至澳大利亞東部時間上午 11:52</p>
</div><p>The high-flying lithium sector has also experienced a pronounced pullback, though most large caps (PLS, MIN) are still holding onto healthy year-to-date gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高飛的鋰行業也經歷了明顯的回調，儘管大多數大型公司（PLS，MIN）仍保持健康的年初至今收益。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Ticker</th>
<th>Company</th>
<th>% Chg</th>
<th>Price</th>
<th>1 Week %</th>
<th>YTD %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>PLS</td>
<td>PLS Group</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>$5.71</td>
<td>-11.0%</td>
<td>35.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MIN</td>
<td>Mineral Resources</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>$63.24</td>
<td>-12.8%</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>IGO</td>
<td>IGO</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>$8.31</td>
<td>-12.2%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>LTR</td>
<td>Liontown</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>$1.90</td>
<td>-19.4%</td>
<td>21.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VUL</td>
<td>Vulcan Energy Resources</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>$3.12</td>
<td>-17.8%</td>
<td>-29.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PMT</td>
<td>PMET Resources</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>$0.55</td>
<td>-28.5%</td>
<td>-8.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CXO</td>
<td>Core Lithium</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>$0.25</td>
<td>-16.9%</td>
<td>-10.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票代碼</th>
<th>公司</th>
<th>變動 %</th>
<th>價格</th>
<th>1 周 %</th>
<th>年初至今 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>PLS</td>
<td>PLS Group</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>$5.71</td>
<td>-11.0%</td>
<td>35.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MIN</td>
<td>Mineral Resources</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>$63.24</td>
<td>-12.8%</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>IGO</td>
<td>IGO</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>$8.31</td>
<td>-12.2%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>LTR</td>
<td>Liontown</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>$1.90</td>
<td>-19.4%</td>
<td>21.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VUL</td>
<td>Vulcan Energy Resources</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>$3.12</td>
<td>-17.8%</td>
<td>-29.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PMT</td>
<td>PMET Resources</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>$0.55</td>
<td>-28.5%</td>
<td>-8.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CXO</td>
<td>Core Lithium</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>$0.25</td>
<td>-16.9%</td>
<td>-10.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data as at 11:54 am AEST</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據截至澳大利亞東部時間上午 11:54</p>
</div><p>Where to from here?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下來會怎樣？</p>
</div><p>Commodities are caught in an awkward spot. The near-term catalysts driving this week's selloff, (hawkish Fed repricing, a firmer US dollar, US-Iran tensions and a softening China) are all pulling in the same direction, and that direction is down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商品處於一個尷尬的境地。本週拋售的短期催化劑（鷹派美聯儲重新定價、美元走強、美伊緊張局勢和中國需求減弱）都朝着同一個方向發展，而這個方向是下行。</p>
</div><p>However, the bigger picture remains unchanged as factors like AI-driven capex, rising defence spending and a more fractured geopolitical backdrop are all feeding structural demand, and there is no supply response of any note to meet it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，更大的圖景保持不變，人工智能驅動的資本支出、國防開支上升以及更加分裂的地緣政治背景等因素都在推動結構性需求，而沒有顯著的供應響應來滿足這種需求。</p>
</div><p>Late last year, Morgan Stanley flagged the copper market heading into its largest deficit in more than two decades, around 590,000 tonnes, widening to 1.1 million tonnes by 2029. With so little new supply coming online, the setup feels rather asymmetric. That said, copper is still copper. It remains acutely sensitive to the ebb and flow of global industrial activity, the direction of the US dollar and shifts in sentiment. This is probably why we see the metal go from record highs last week, to a ~7% pullback just six days later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年底，摩根士丹利指出，銅市場正面臨超過二十年來最大的缺口，約為 59 萬噸，到 2029 年將擴大至 110 萬噸。由於新供應幾乎沒有上線，這種局面顯得相當不對稱。儘管如此，銅仍然是銅。它對全球工業活動的起伏、美元的走勢以及情緒的變化極為敏感。這可能就是為什麼我們看到這種金屬在上週創下歷史新高後，僅僅六天後就回落了約 7%。</p>
</div><p>The overall picture looks bullish, but with a sharp pullback across global equity markets, elevated geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures all in play, volatility is very, very high right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>整體情況看起來是看漲的，但由於全球股市的急劇回調、地緣政治緊張局勢加劇以及通脹壓力的影響，目前的波動性非常非常高。</p>
</div>

ASX 200 miners tumble 11% in five days as Fed, US dollar and Iran tensions hammer commodities

Market Index

德銀美元指數 做多 - PowerShares

南方中證申萬有色金屬ETF

有色金屬

華夏中證細分有色金屬產業主題ETF

2 倍做多黃金 ETF - ProShares

黃金 ETF - iShares

ETFS Capital Ltd.

SPDR 金 ETF

實物黃金股 ETF - ETFS

彭博美元指數 做多 - WisdomTree

白銀信託 ETF - iShares

金屬採礦 ETF - SPDR

全球金屬和採礦生產商 MSCI ETF - iShares

白銀礦業股 ETF - GlobalX

必和必拓

Rio Tinto Limited

力拓

福蒂斯丘金屬集團

Northern Star Resources Ltd

Amcor PLC Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh

Amcor

Evolution Mining Limited

South32

James Hardie Industries PLC Chess Units of Foreign Securities

Pilbara Minerals Limited

Lynas Rare Earths Limited

紐蒙特礦業

Perseus Mining Limited

Genesis Minerals Limited

Capricorn Metals Ltd

Ramelius Resources Limited

Westgold Resources Ltd

Mineral Resources Limited

IGO Limited

Liontown Resources Limited

Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd.

Core Lithium Ltd

必和必拓集團

力拓集團

South32 Limited

South32 Ltd.

萊納斯(ADR)

ASX 200 礦業公司在五天內下跌 11%，因為美聯儲、美元和伊朗緊張局勢對大宗商品造成衝擊