<p>友邦保險 (01299.HK) +1.000 (+1.423%) 空頭頭寸 $795.19M; 比率 18.541% 今天開盤上漲 1.57%，最高達到 72.25 港元。目前交易價格為 71.6 港元，上漲 1.92%，成交量為 2928.69 萬股，涉及金額為 20.8 億港元。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利在一份戰術研究報告中表示，認為友邦保險的股價在接下來的 30 天內將絕對上漲。這主要是由於近期的回調，使其短期估值更具吸引力。該行估計這一情景的概率在 60% 到 70% 之間（或 “可能”）。</p>
<p>該行進一步指出，友邦保險於 2026 年 6 月 8 日完成了 17 億美元的股票回購（約佔總流通股的 1.6%）。原則上，下一輪迴購預計將在 2027 年進行。它認為，即使沒有回購支持，友邦保險的股價也將保持韌性。目前的估值已修正至其 2026 年預測的市淨率 1.09 倍（12 個月前瞻市淨率為 1.03 倍），或僅為其 2026 年新業務預測價值倍數的 1.9 倍。</p>
<p>該行重申友邦保險的下行風險有限，目前的股價代表了一個良好的長期買入機會。它維持對友邦保險的增持評級，目標價為 109 港元。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利指出，市場擔憂主要集中在針對內地遊客（MCV）業務的潛在進一步監管收緊。然而，該行並不預計這種情況會發生。首先，針對跨境股票交易的監管整頓和國務院的境外投資規則並未針對 MCV 保險業務。其次，過去三週該業務一直正常運作。第三，香港保險業監管局與相關內地監管機構和部門保持密切溝通，監管重點更多集中在香港的持牌運營和銷售流程上。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利補充説，即使假設從 2026 年下半年開始沒有新的 MCV 業務，嵌入價值、合同服務利潤和經營利潤的影響也是可控的，預計在 2027 財年至 2028 財年僅會下降 2% 至 6%。該行並不預計會出現如此極端的情景。因此，它認為市場擔憂過度，友邦保險的基本面依然穩健，估值極具吸引力。（ad/u）（香港股票報價延遲至少 15 分鐘。空頭數據截至 2026 年 6 月 10 日 16:25。）</p>

友邦保險(ADR)

友邦保險

<p>摩根士丹利對友邦保險維持 “增持” 評級，目標價為 109 港元，預測在接下來的 30 天內，由於近期回調後的吸引估值，股價將有絕對上漲空間。該銀行駁斥了市場對中國大陸游客業務可能面臨的監管收緊的擔憂，指出即使在最壞情況下，正常運營和可控的財務影響也能得到保障。友邦保險最近完成了 17 億美元的回購，進一步鞏固了其穩健的基本面</p>

<p>AIA (01299.HK) +1.000 (+1.423%)  Short selling $795.19M; Ratio 18.541%  opened 1.57% higher today and peaked at HKD72.25. It is now trading at HKD71.6, up 1.92%, with turnover of 29.2869 million shares, involving HKD2.08 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>友邦保險 (01299.HK) +1.000 (+1.423%) 空頭頭寸 $795.19M; 比率 18.541% 今天開盤上漲 1.57%，最高達到 72.25 港元。目前交易價格為 71.6 港元，上漲 1.92%，成交量為 2928.69 萬股，涉及金額為 20.8 億港元。</p>
</div><p>M Stanley said in a tactical research report that it believes AIA’s share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 30 days. This is mainly due to the recent pullback, which has made its near-term valuation more attractive. The bank estimates the probability of this scenario at around 60% to 70% (or “likely”).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利在一份戰術研究報告中表示，認為友邦保險的股價在接下來的 30 天內將絕對上漲。這主要是由於近期的回調，使其短期估值更具吸引力。該行估計這一情景的概率在 60% 到 70% 之間（或 “可能”）。</p>
</div><p>The bank further noted that AIA completed a USD1.7 billion share buyback (approximately 1.6% of total shares outstanding) on Mon, 8 Jun 2026. In principle, the next round of buybacks is expected to take place in 2027. It believes that even without buyback support, AIA’s share price will remain resilient. The current valuation has corrected to 1.09x its 2026 forecast price-to-book ratio (1.03x on a 12-month forward basis), or only 1.9x its 2026 forecast value of new business multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該行進一步指出，友邦保險於 2026 年 6 月 8 日完成了 17 億美元的股票回購（約佔總流通股的 1.6%）。原則上，下一輪迴購預計將在 2027 年進行。它認為，即使沒有回購支持，友邦保險的股價也將保持韌性。目前的估值已修正至其 2026 年預測的市淨率 1.09 倍（12 個月前瞻市淨率為 1.03 倍），或僅為其 2026 年新業務預測價值倍數的 1.9 倍。</p>
</div><p>The bank reiterated that AIA’s downside risk is limited and that the current share price represents a good long-term buying opportunity. It maintained an Overweight rating on AIA with a TP of HKD109.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該行重申友邦保險的下行風險有限，目前的股價代表了一個良好的長期買入機會。它維持對友邦保險的增持評級，目標價為 109 港元。</p>
</div><p>M Stanley pointed out that market concerns are mainly focused on potential further regulatory tightening targeting mainland Chinese visitors (MCV) business. However, the bank does not expect this to materialize. Firstly, regulatory rectification on cross-border stock trading and the State Council’s outbound investment rules have not targeted MCV insurance business. Secondly, the business has been operating as usual over the past three weeks. Thirdly, the Hong Kong Insurance Authority maintains close communication with relevant mainland regulators and departments, with regulatory focus more on licensed operations and sales processes in Hong Kong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利指出，市場擔憂主要集中在針對內地遊客（MCV）業務的潛在進一步監管收緊。然而，該行並不預計這種情況會發生。首先，針對跨境股票交易的監管整頓和國務院的境外投資規則並未針對 MCV 保險業務。其次，過去三週該業務一直正常運作。第三，香港保險業監管局與相關內地監管機構和部門保持密切溝通，監管重點更多集中在香港的持牌運營和銷售流程上。</p>
</div><p>M Stanley added that even under the assumption of no new MCV business starting from 2H2026, the impact on embedded value, contractual service margin and operating profit would be manageable, with only a 2% to 6% decline expected in FY2027 to FY2028. The bank does not expect such an extreme scenario to occur. Therefore, it believes market concerns are overdone, AIA’s fundamentals remain solid, and its valuation is highly attractive. (ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-10 16:25.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利補充説，即使假設從 2026 年下半年開始沒有新的 MCV 業務，嵌入價值、合同服務利潤和經營利潤的影響也是可控的，預計在 2027 財年至 2028 財年僅會下降 2% 至 6%。該行並不預計會出現如此極端的情景。因此，它認為市場擔憂過度，友邦保險的基本面依然穩健，估值極具吸引力。（ad/u）（香港股票報價延遲至少 15 分鐘。空頭數據截至 2026 年 6 月 10 日 16:25。）</p>
</div>

AIA  Rebounds Nearly 2% Against Market; M Stanley Sees Absolute Share Price Upside in Next 30 Days

AASTOCKS News

摩根士丹利

友邦保險-R

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

友邦保險逆市反彈近 2%；摩根士丹利預計未來 30 天股價將有絕對上漲空間