<p>作者：馬克·霍爾伯特</p>
<p>可預測的價格將支持比特幣成為一種可行的貨幣</p>
<p>比特幣（BTCUSD）在幾十年的回報率不到 1% 的年化收益。</p>
<p>這正是我多年來撰寫關於這種加密貨幣的文章時所依據的公允價值模型所暗示的。該模型基於梅特卡夫定律，假設網絡的價值與網絡中成員數量的平方成正比。</p>
<p>正如您從下面的圖表中看到的，每當比特幣偏離其公允價值線時，隨後都會迴歸。現在是最新的一次，比特幣目前的交易價格幾乎正好位於該線之上。</p>
<p>這個梅特卡夫定律模型的比特幣公允價值最早是六年前由前 TCW 集團商品投資組合經理克勞德·厄爾布向我提出的。在最近的一次採訪中，厄爾布強調，儘管比特幣的行為與該模型一致，但並不能證明該模型是正確或真實的。不過，該模型顯然比一些競爭模型更有助於理解比特幣——其中一些模型預測比特幣將達到 100 萬美元。</p>
<p>除了計算比特幣目前相對於其公允價值的狀態外，該模型在預測其未來可能回報方面也很有幫助。鑑於比特幣的回報率已經下降多年，並且只要未來比特幣的數量增長受到限制，就沒有理由相信比特幣的價格會大幅上漲。這在上面的圖表中隱含地表現出來，公允價值線的斜率變得幾乎平坦。</p>
<p>實際上，該線最終將變為水平。比特幣的供應預計將在 2140 年左右達到其算法確定的 2100 萬的上限，而截至今天，已經發行了超過 2000 萬個幣。當比特幣達到這一上限時，公允價值模型將其價格定在大約 120,000 美元，代表從當前價格年化回報率為 0.6%。此後，價格將不再進一步上漲。在最近發佈在社會科學研究網絡上的一篇論文中，厄爾布詳細闡述了該模型的這些及其他含義。</p>
<p>儘管許多比特幣的支持者會對這一預測感到失望，但仍有一線希望：穩定的價格將有助於比特幣成為一種交換媒介，這也是該加密貨幣最初的使用案例。如果在未來幾年內比特幣以快速的速度升值，比特幣交易將常常觸發高額的資本利得税。</p>
<p>舉個例子，假設您用以半價購買的比特幣購買了一部售價約 800 美元的 iPhone 17 標準版。您的資本收益將為 400 美元，聯邦税可能高達 80 美元，而對於加利福尼亞州的納税人，州税可能高達 53 美元。</p>
<p>這就是為什麼穩定的價格是比特幣成為廣泛使用的交換媒介的前提。如果梅特卡夫定律模型能夠幫助比特幣迴歸其支持者最初希望它成為的樣子，那將是非常諷刺的。</p>
<p>馬克·霍爾伯特是 MarketWatch 的定期撰稿人。他的霍爾伯特評級追蹤支付固定費用進行審計的投資通訊。他可以通過 mark@hulbertratings.com 與他聯繫。</p>
<p>另請閲讀：比特幣牛市仍在繼續。這些圖表顯示他們只是轉向了更熱門的市場。</p>
<p>更多內容：偉大的黃金神話：為什麼這種貴金屬不是我們所説的戰爭對沖工具</p>
<p>——馬克·霍爾伯特</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞社和華爾街日報獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
<p>06-13-26 1452ET</p>

GBTC

FBTC

IBIT

<p>基於梅特卡夫定律的公允價值模型表明，比特幣的長期年化回報可能接近於零，到 2140 年穩定在約 120,000 美元。雖然這讓看漲者感到失望，但它支持比特幣作為一種可行的交換媒介的初衷，因為它避免了與快速價格上漲相關的資本利得税負擔</p>

<p>By Mark Hulbert</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：馬克·霍爾伯特</p>
</div><p>A predictable price would support bitcoin becoming a viable currency</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可預測的價格將支持比特幣成為一種可行的貨幣</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) return over many decades is less than 1% annualized.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣（BTCUSD）在幾十年的回報率不到 1% 的年化收益。</p>
</div><p>That's the implication of a fair-value model for the cryptocurrency that has performed admirably over the years I have been writing about it. It is based on Metcalfe's Law, which assumes that the value of a network is proportional to the square of how many members are in that network.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這正是我多年來撰寫關於這種加密貨幣的文章時所依據的公允價值模型所暗示的。該模型基於梅特卡夫定律，假設網絡的價值與網絡中成員數量的平方成正比。</p>
</div><p>As you can see from the chart below, on each past occasion when bitcoin has diverged from its fair-value line, it has subsequently reverted. Now is the latest such occasion, with bitcoin currently trading almost precisely on top of that line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如您從下面的圖表中看到的，每當比特幣偏離其公允價值線時，隨後都會迴歸。現在是最新的一次，比特幣目前的交易價格幾乎正好位於該線之上。</p>
</div><p>This Metcalfe's Law model of bitcoin's fair value was first proposed to me six years ago by Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager at TCW Group. In a recent interview, Erb stressed that while bitcoin's behavior is consistent with the model, it doesn't prove that it is right or true. Still, the model certainly seems to be a more helpful way of thinking about bitcoin than competing models - some of which have predicted bitcoin would reach $1 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這個梅特卡夫定律模型的比特幣公允價值最早是六年前由前 TCW 集團商品投資組合經理克勞德·厄爾布向我提出的。在最近的一次採訪中，厄爾布強調，儘管比特幣的行為與該模型一致，但並不能證明該模型是正確或真實的。不過，該模型顯然比一些競爭模型更有助於理解比特幣——其中一些模型預測比特幣將達到 100 萬美元。</p>
</div><p>In addition to calculating where bitcoin stands today relative to its fair value, the model is also helpful in projecting its possible future return. Given that bitcoin returns have fallen for years, and as long as the future growth in the number of bitcoins is limited, there may be no reason to believe that the price of bitcoin will rise substantially. This is implicit in the chart above, which shows the slope of the fair-value line becoming nearly flat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了計算比特幣目前相對於其公允價值的狀態外，該模型在預測其未來可能回報方面也很有幫助。鑑於比特幣的回報率已經下降多年，並且只要未來比特幣的數量增長受到限制，就沒有理由相信比特幣的價格會大幅上漲。這在上面的圖表中隱含地表現出來，公允價值線的斜率變得幾乎平坦。</p>
</div><p>That line will eventually become horizontal, in fact. Bitcoin's supply is projected to reach its algorithmically determined limit of 21 million around the year 2140, whereas just over 20 million coins have been issued up until today. The fair-value model puts bitcoin's price at roughly $120,000 when it hits that limit, representing a return of 0.6% annualized from its current price. Thereafter the price would not increase any further. In a paper recently posted on the Social Science Research Network, Erb spelled out these and other implications of the model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>實際上，該線最終將變為水平。比特幣的供應預計將在 2140 年左右達到其算法確定的 2100 萬的上限，而截至今天，已經發行了超過 2000 萬個幣。當比特幣達到這一上限時，公允價值模型將其價格定在大約 120,000 美元，代表從當前價格年化回報率為 0.6%。此後，價格將不再進一步上漲。在最近發佈在社會科學研究網絡上的一篇論文中，厄爾布詳細闡述了該模型的這些及其他含義。</p>
</div><p>Although many of bitcoin's advocates will be disappointed with this forecast, there is a silver lining: A flat price would help support bitcoin becoming a medium of exchange, which was the original use case for the cryptocurrency. If it were instead to appreciate at a fast rate in coming years, bitcoin transactions would often trigger a hefty capital-gains tax bill.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管許多比特幣的支持者會對這一預測感到失望，但仍有一線希望：穩定的價格將有助於比特幣成為一種交換媒介，這也是該加密貨幣最初的使用案例。如果在未來幾年內比特幣以快速的速度升值，比特幣交易將常常觸發高額的資本利得税。</p>
</div><p>To illustrate, consider a scenario in which you purchase an iPhone 17 standard model, which retails for around $800, with bitcoin that you purchased for half its current price. Your capital gain would be $400, and the federal tax due on that would be as much as $80, while for California taxpayers, the state tax due would be as much as $53.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>舉個例子，假設您用以半價購買的比特幣購買了一部售價約 800 美元的 iPhone 17 標準版。您的資本收益將為 400 美元，聯邦税可能高達 80 美元，而對於加利福尼亞州的納税人，州税可能高達 53 美元。</p>
</div><p>That's why a stable price is a prerequisite for bitcoin becoming a widely used medium of exchange. It would be ironic indeed if the Metcalfe's Law model were to help bitcoin come full circle to what its supporters originally intended it to be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是為什麼穩定的價格是比特幣成為廣泛使用的交換媒介的前提。如果梅特卡夫定律模型能夠幫助比特幣迴歸其支持者最初希望它成為的樣子，那將是非常諷刺的。</p>
</div><p>Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>馬克·霍爾伯特是 MarketWatch 的定期撰稿人。他的霍爾伯特評級追蹤支付固定費用進行審計的投資通訊。他可以通過 mark@hulbertratings.com 與他聯繫。</p>
</div><p>Also read: Bitcoin bulls are still around. These charts show they just moved on to hotter markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另請閲讀：比特幣牛市仍在繼續。這些圖表顯示他們只是轉向了更熱門的市場。</p>
</div><p>More: The great gold myth: Why the precious metal isn't the war hedge we're told it is</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多內容：偉大的黃金神話：為什麼這種貴金屬不是我們所説的戰爭對沖工具</p>
</div><p>-Mark Hulbert</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——馬克·霍爾伯特</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞社和華爾街日報獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
</div><p>06-13-26 1452ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>06-13-26 1452ET</p>
</div>

Bitcoin's long-term return may actually be close to zero - and that could be just what it needs

Dow Jones

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC - ETF

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF

CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

Franklin Bitcoin ETF

ETC Holdings Ltd. (Guernsey)

博時比特幣

華夏比特幣

MBC比特幣

比特幣的長期回報實際上可能接近於零——這或許正是它所需要的