<p>中國的消費支出和投資降至疫情以來未見的水平，暴露出經濟仍面臨的風險，儘管在伊朗局勢緩和的情況下，出口卻在蓬勃發展。</p>
<p>上個月零售銷售同比下降了 0.6%，降幅超出預期，這是自 2022 年底疫情解封以來的首次下降。</p>
<p>根據國家統計局週二發佈的數據，5 月份房價以更快的速度下跌，固定資產投資在前五個月同比萎縮了超出預期的 4.1%。</p>
<p>與需求端的疲軟形成對比的是，工業生產增長了 4.5%，高於 4 月份的 4.1%，略好於預期。調查顯示的城市失業率降至 5.1%。</p>
<p>ING 銀行大中華區首席經濟學家 Lynn Song 表示：“儘管科技和出口相關行業有一些強勁的表現，但整體經濟仍在掙扎。這可能最終會給政策制定者施加壓力，要求放寬政策。”</p>
<p>由人工智能驅動的出口繁榮已成為中國經濟失衡的新來源，儘管國內消費支出因住房危機和脆弱的就業市場而疲軟，但生產卻在提升。</p>
<p>但如果國內需求沒有強勁反彈，經濟面臨更深層次放緩的風險，即使美伊協議重啓霍爾木茲海峽的承諾有望穩定全球航運和能源價格。</p>
<p>零售銷售和投資的意外下滑也重新引發了人們對其在衡量整體經濟健康方面準確性的質疑。</p>
<p>根據瑞銀證券首席中國經濟學家 Yu Song 的説法，服務業生產指數在 5 月份同比小幅上升至 4.4%，與國內生產總值的增長模式的相關性比主要由商品構成的零售銷售更強。</p>
<p>他表示，去年顯現出的固定資產投資數據的不一致性也意味着它可能誇大了疲軟的程度。</p>
<p>Song 在接受彭博電視採訪時表示：“第二季度的 GDP 數據看起來疲軟，但並沒有達到人們從 4 月份的數據中預期的那種疲軟。” 一些分析師估計 4 月份的增長接近 4%，低於政府官方的全年目標 4.5% 至 5%。</p>
<p>數據顯示令投資者失望，人民幣在數據發佈後在離岸交易中貶值，前一天剛達到 2023 年初以來的最強水平。恒生中國企業指數在香港時間下午 1 點時進一步下跌約 1.3%。</p>
<p>在投資方面，2026 年前五個月私人資本支出同比下降了 7.1%，是自 2020 年以來的最差增速。製造業投資六年來首次下降。</p>
<p>進一步的證據表明經濟出現日益擴大的分化。高科技行業的投資增長了 4.5%，半導體和鋰電池製造商的資本支出分別增長了 11% 和 25%。</p>
<p>國家統計局發言人傅凌輝將投資和零售銷售的下滑歸因於包括強降雨在內的因素。他還指出，去年由於補貼驅動的高消費水平以及經濟向新增長動力的轉型。</p>
<p>傅在北京的簡報中表示：“自第二季度以來，由於全球環境的複雜變化以及國內經濟的結構調整，某些經濟指標放緩。一些公司面臨困難。但從整體趨勢來看，經濟的動能仍然總體穩定。”</p>
<p>在零售銷售中，大宗商品引領了下降。汽車購買佔整體數字的約 8%，5 月份同比暴跌 16%。不包括汽車，5 月份零售銷售增長了 1.1%。</p>
<p>家電以及建築和裝飾材料的銷售也以兩位數的速度收縮。</p>
<p>上個月房價的快速下跌對消費者信心並不樂觀。新房和二手房的價格均較 4 月份以更快的速度下降。</p>
<p>房地產市場的任何改善跡象仍限於最大城市，部分原因是全球人工智能投資繁榮帶來的更好收益。</p>
<p>工業產出數據的細分顯示出先進製造業與其他行業之間的分化加劇。</p>
<p>高科技製造業在 5 月份的增值方面同比飆升 15%，較 4 月份的 13% 加速。電子行業的產出增長了 17%，得益於對人工智能相關產品和設備的強勁需求。</p>
<p>今年出口增長的激增仍足以防止中國經濟過度降温。全球人工智能投資超級週期正在推高世界製造強國生產的硬件的價格和需求。</p>
<p>5 月份的對外出口以三個月以來最快的速度飆升。芯片和計算機約佔出口和進口增長的一半，半導體的海外銷售激增 111%。</p>
<p>與美國的貿易關係穩定，受到特朗普總統訪問北京的進一步加強，進一步增強了前景。</p>
<p>政策制定者似乎在應對中國的雙速增長時採取了觀望態度，此前努力促使消費者消費的措施所帶來的收益證明是短暫的。</p>
<p>政府在 3 月和 4 月減少了公共支出，因為債券銷售放緩。儘管經濟學家也指出可能缺乏合格項目，但當局可能對 GDP 第一季度的表現感到滿意——當時增長了 5%。</p>
<p>中國中信銀行國際首席經濟學家丁爽表示：“國內需求仍然需要寬鬆的貨幣政策和積極的財政政策來提振。如果油價回落，第二季度降息和降低存款準備金率以及增加財政支出的可能性很高。”</p>

恆生指數

盈富基金

安碩恆生指數

南方兩倍看多恆指

南方一倍看空恆指

南方兩倍看空恆指

<p>中國經濟在 5 月份停滯不前，消費者支出和投資降至疫情時期的低點，零售銷售下降了 0.6%，固定資產投資縮減了 4.1%。儘管受人工智能相關出口和高科技製造業推動，工業生產增長了 4.5%，但由於住房危機和脆弱的就業市場，國內需求依然疲軟。這種分歧重新引發了人們對經濟穩定性和政策寬鬆的擔憂，導致人民幣貶值和香港股市下跌</p>

<p>CHINA’S consumer spending and investment slumped to levels unseen since the pandemic, exposing risks still facing the economy even as it benefits from a deescalation in tensions around Iran while exports boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國的消費支出和投資降至疫情以來未見的水平，暴露出經濟仍面臨的風險，儘管在伊朗局勢緩和的情況下，出口卻在蓬勃發展。</p>
</div><p>Retail sales declined 0.6 per cent last month from a year ago, posting a worse-than-forecast drop that was their first fall since the reopening from Covid lockdowns in late 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上個月零售銷售同比下降了 0.6%，降幅超出預期，這是自 2022 年底疫情解封以來的首次下降。</p>
</div><p>Home prices fell at a quicker pace in May and fixed-asset investment shrank a deeper-than-expected 4.1 per cent in the first five months from a year ago, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據國家統計局週二發佈的數據，5 月份房價以更快的速度下跌，固定資產投資在前五個月同比萎縮了超出預期的 4.1%。</p>
</div><p>In contrast to weakness on the demand side, industrial production climbed 4.5 per cent, up from 4.1 per cent in April and slightly better than forecast. The surveyed urban jobless rate eased to 5.1 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與需求端的疲軟形成對比的是，工業生產增長了 4.5%，高於 4 月份的 4.1%，略好於預期。調查顯示的城市失業率降至 5.1%。</p>
</div><p>“While there are pockets of strength in tech and export-related industries, the broader economy is still struggling,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank NV. “This could eventually add pressure on policymakers to ease policy.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 銀行大中華區首席經濟學家 Lynn Song 表示：“儘管科技和出口相關行業有一些強勁的表現，但整體經濟仍在掙扎。這可能最終會給政策制定者施加壓力，要求放寬政策。”</p>
</div><p>An export boom driven by artificial intelligence has become a new source of economic imbalance in China, lifting production as domestic consumer spending sags under the weight of a housing crisis and a fragile jobs market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由人工智能驅動的出口繁榮已成為中國經濟失衡的新來源，儘管國內消費支出因住房危機和脆弱的就業市場而疲軟，但生產卻在提升。</p>
</div><p>But without stronger demand at home, the economy is at risk of a deeper slowdown even as the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz holds out the promise of stabilizing global shipping and energy prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果國內需求沒有強勁反彈，經濟面臨更深層次放緩的風險，即使美伊協議重啓霍爾木茲海峽的承諾有望穩定全球航運和能源價格。</p>
</div><p>The worse-than-expected slump in retail sales and investment also reignited questions around their accuracy in gauging broader economic health.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>零售銷售和投資的意外下滑也重新引發了人們對其在衡量整體經濟健康方面準確性的質疑。</p>
</div><p>The services production index, which inched up to 4.4 per cent on year in May, has a stronger correlation with the pattern of growth in gross domestic product than retail sales, which comprised mostly goods, according to Yu Song, chief China economist at UBS Securities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據瑞銀證券首席中國經濟學家 Yu Song 的説法，服務業生產指數在 5 月份同比小幅上升至 4.4%，與國內生產總值的增長模式的相關性比主要由商品構成的零售銷售更強。</p>
</div><p>Inconsistency in the fixed-asset investment data that became apparent last year also mean it might exaggerate the weakness, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示，去年顯現出的固定資產投資數據的不一致性也意味着它可能誇大了疲軟的程度。</p>
</div><p>“Second-quarter GDP data looks to be weak, but not quite as weak as one would expect from April data,” Song told Bloomberg Television. Some analysts estimated growth at near 4 per cent in April, tracking below the government’s official full-year target of 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Song 在接受彭博電視採訪時表示：“第二季度的 GDP 數據看起來疲軟，但並沒有達到人們從 4 月份的數據中預期的那種疲軟。” 一些分析師估計 4 月份的增長接近 4%，低於政府官方的全年目標 4.5% 至 5%。</p>
</div><p>In a sign the figures disappointed investors, the yuan weakened in offshore trading after the data release, a day after reaching its strongest level since early 2023. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index extended losses, falling about 1.3 per cent as of 1 pm in Hong Kong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據顯示令投資者失望，人民幣在數據發佈後在離岸交易中貶值，前一天剛達到 2023 年初以來的最強水平。恒生中國企業指數在香港時間下午 1 點時進一步下跌約 1.3%。</p>
</div><p>Within investment, private capital expenditure slumped 7.1 per cent in the first five months of 2026 from a year ago, the worst pace since 2020. Manufacturing investment declined for the first time in six years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在投資方面，2026 年前五個月私人資本支出同比下降了 7.1%，是自 2020 年以來的最差增速。製造業投資六年來首次下降。</p>
</div><p>Further evidence emerged indicating a growing divergence in the economy. Investment in high-tech industries expanded 4.5 per cent, with capital expenditure of semiconductor and lithium battery makers up 11 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>進一步的證據表明經濟出現日益擴大的分化。高科技行業的投資增長了 4.5%，半導體和鋰電池製造商的資本支出分別增長了 11% 和 25%。</p>
</div><p>NBS spokesman Fu Linghui attributed the slump in investment and retail sales to factors including heavy rainfall. Fu also pointed to last year’s high level of spending driven by subsidies as well as the economy’s transition to new growth drivers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國家統計局發言人傅凌輝將投資和零售銷售的下滑歸因於包括強降雨在內的因素。他還指出，去年由於補貼驅動的高消費水平以及經濟向新增長動力的轉型。</p>
</div><p>“Since the second quarter, certain economic indicators slowed because of complex changes in the global environment as well as structural adjustment in the domestic economy,” said Fu in a briefing in Beijing. “Some companies are facing difficulties. But looking at the overall trend, the momentum of the economy remains overall stable.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>傅在北京的簡報中表示：“自第二季度以來，由於全球環境的複雜變化以及國內經濟的結構調整，某些經濟指標放緩。一些公司面臨困難。但從整體趨勢來看，經濟的動能仍然總體穩定。”</p>
</div><p>Under retail sales, big-ticket items led the decline. Car purchases, which make up about 8 per cent of the overall figure, plunged 16 per cent in May from a year ago. Excluding autos, retail sales grew 1.1 per cent in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在零售銷售中，大宗商品引領了下降。汽車購買佔整體數字的約 8%，5 月份同比暴跌 16%。不包括汽車，5 月份零售銷售增長了 1.1%。</p>
</div><p>Sales of home appliances as well as construction and decoration materials also contracted at a double-digit pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家電以及建築和裝飾材料的銷售也以兩位數的速度收縮。</p>
</div><p>A faster fall in home prices last month doesn’t bode well for consumer sentiment. Both new and second-hand homes declined in price at a quicker pace compared with April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上個月房價的快速下跌對消費者信心並不樂觀。新房和二手房的價格均較 4 月份以更快的速度下降。</p>
</div><p>Any signs of improvement in the property market remain limited to the largest cities, partly thanks to better earnings related to the global AI investment boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房地產市場的任何改善跡象仍限於最大城市，部分原因是全球人工智能投資繁榮帶來的更好收益。</p>
</div><p>A breakdown of the industrial output data showed a widening divergence between advanced manufacturing and the rest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工業產出數據的細分顯示出先進製造業與其他行業之間的分化加劇。</p>
</div><p>High-tech manufacturing soared 15 per cent in terms of value added in May from a year ago, accelerating from 13 per cent in April. The electronics industry saw a 17 per cent jump in output, thanks to booming demand for AI-related products and equipment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高科技製造業在 5 月份的增值方面同比飆升 15%，較 4 月份的 13% 加速。電子行業的產出增長了 17%，得益於對人工智能相關產品和設備的強勁需求。</p>
</div><p>The spurt of export growth this year has still been sufficient to keep China’s economy from cooling off too much. A global investment supercycle in artificial intelligence is driving up prices and demand for hardware made by the world’s manufacturing powerhouse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年出口增長的激增仍足以防止中國經濟過度降温。全球人工智能投資超級週期正在推高世界製造強國生產的硬件的價格和需求。</p>
</div><p>Outbound shipments soared in May at their fastest pace in three months. Chips and computers contributed to about half the growth in both exports and imports, with overseas sales of semiconductors soaring 111 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>5 月份的對外出口以三個月以來最快的速度飆升。芯片和計算機約佔出口和進口增長的一半，半導體的海外銷售激增 111%。</p>
</div><p>Stabilising trade ties with the US, reinforced by President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing, further bolster the outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與美國的貿易關係穩定，受到特朗普總統訪問北京的進一步加強，進一步增強了前景。</p>
</div><p>Policymakers have appeared to be taking a wait-and-see approach in responding China’s two-speed growth, after efforts to coax consumers into spending delivered gains that proved fleeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策制定者似乎在應對中國的雙速增長時採取了觀望態度，此前努力促使消費者消費的措施所帶來的收益證明是短暫的。</p>
</div><p>The government dialled back public spending in March and April as bond sales decelerated. Authorities likely felt comfortable with GDP’s first-quarter performance — when it expanded 5 per cent — though economists also pointed to a potential lack of eligible projects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府在 3 月和 4 月減少了公共支出，因為債券銷售放緩。儘管經濟學家也指出可能缺乏合格項目，但當局可能對 GDP 第一季度的表現感到滿意——當時增長了 5%。</p>
</div><p>“Domestic demand still requires a boost from loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy,” said Allen Ding, chief economist at China Citic Bank International. “There’s a high chance of interest and reserve requirement ratio cuts and increased fiscal spending in the second half if oil prices fall back.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國中信銀行國際首席經濟學家丁爽表示：“國內需求仍然需要寬鬆的貨幣政策和積極的財政政策來提振。如果油價回落，第二季度降息和降低存款準備金率以及增加財政支出的可能性很高。”</p>
</div>

Chinese economy stalls as spending, investment drop to Covid-era levels

- 中國消費支出和投資降至疫情以來低位，出口卻強勁增長。  
- 5 月零售銷售同比下降 0.6%，房價下跌加劇，固定資產投資萎縮 4.1%。  
- 高科技行業投資增長顯著，但整體經濟面臨放緩風險需政策支持。

中國經濟陷入停滯，消費和投資降至新冠疫情時期的水平