<p>很少有股票像 <strong>美光科技</strong>（MU +8.80%）一樣在人工智能（AI）熱潮中表現如此出色。這家內存芯片製造商的股價在 2026 年已經上漲了三倍，截至目前上漲近 300%，交易價格約為$1,134，剛剛創下新高。該公司的市值現在接近 1.3 萬億美元。</p>
<p>這為週三的財報設定了一個高標準。當美光在 6 月 24 日收盤後發佈其 2026 財年第三季度財報（截至 2026 年 5 月 28 日）時，另一個創紀錄的業績幾乎是板上釘釘——管理層幾個月前就預告了驚人的增長。真正的問題是，隨報告發布的前景是否能證明當前的股價已經假設了這一熱潮將持續下去。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUzMzUvbWljcm9uLXN0b2NrLW11LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="3840" height="2020" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUzMzUvbWljcm9uLXN0b2NrLW11LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>重要數字</h2>
<p>頭條數字將是收入。美光預計收入約為 335 億美元，誤差在 7.5 億美元左右——比其在財年第二季度報告的 238.6 億美元增長約 40%，而該季度的收入幾乎是去年同期的三倍。為了更好地理解，管理層指出，其財年第三季度的收入指引就超過了該公司在 2024 財年之前的任何一個完整年度的總收入。</p>
<p>管理層還預計非公認會計原則（調整後）毛利率將創下約 81% 的新高，每股收益約為 19.15 美元。</p>
<p>但記錄並不是問題——公司的指引幾乎可以確保這些記錄的實現——或者至少是管理層所指引的範圍內的某些數據。真正重要的是管理層對內存定價和供應的看法。</p>
<p>這一評論是整個上漲的動力。美光已完成其 2026 年高帶寬內存（HBM）供應的價格和數量協議。</p>
<p>美光在其財年第二季度的準備發言中表示：“我們預計 2026 年日曆年內存行業的 DRAM 和 NAND 比特需求將受到供應的限制。” 並補充説，預計這種情況在今年之後仍將保持緊張。</p>
<p>當然，短缺的根源在於 AI。</p>
<p>每一代新的 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA +3.08%）芯片——在 AI 計算中心的圖形處理單元（GPU）——需要更多的內存，而最先進的類型每比特所需的工廠產能遠高於普通內存。因此，隨着美光將生產轉向英偉達下一代 Vera Rubin 平台的 HBM，它將從用於筆記本電腦和數據中心服務器的標準內存中抽調產能，保持價格高企。</p>
<h2>值得關注的信號</h2>
<p>內存業務是一個著名的週期性行業，以前的每一次繁榮最終都讓位於供應過剩和價格下跌。因此，這份報告中最具指示性的部分可能根本不是 5 月的季度，而是管理層對 2027 年的信號。</p>
<p>對投資者來説，什麼會是一個紅旗？任何暗示價格無法繼續上漲的跡象都可能讓投資者感到擔憂。價格當然是由供需決定的。美光已經完成了其 2026 年 HBM 產能供應協議。但管理層仍在與客户進行戰略客户協議的談判，涉及特定的多年承諾，任何在這方面的軟化都可能表明供應開始趕上需求。投資者也會關注毛利率。實現約 81% 的調整後毛利率指引將標誌着創紀錄。但值得關注的是，管理層是否預計這一水平能夠維持，還是會從此平穩。</p>
<p>目前，供應方面仍然看起來緊張。美光及其競爭對手正在投入數百億美元用於新工廠——包括在愛達荷州和紐約建設的工廠，預計第一座愛達荷州工廠將在 2027 年中期開始初步晶圓生產，第一座紐約工廠預計將在 2030 年及以後提供供應。但這些 資本支出 在 2027 年末之前不會增加顯著的產能。這可能會使緊張局面持續一段時間。</p>
<p>這也是 估值 辯論的核心。美光的股價約為$1,134，市盈率超過 50 倍——對於一家內存製造商來説，這個倍數看起來很高。但這些滯後收益幾乎無法反映正在發生的轉折。公司對財年第三季度每股收益約 19.15 美元的指引遠高於剛剛報告的季度的 12.20 美元，因此，與未來一年可能獲得的收益相比，股票看起來便宜得多——假設週期保持不變。</p>
<p>展開</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL01VLnBuZyZ3PTEyOA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="美光科技股票報價" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL01VLnBuZyZ3PTEyOA"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: MU</h2>
<p>美光科技</p>
<p>今日變動</p>
<p>(8.80%) $91.81</p>
<p>當前價格</p>
<p>$1135.00</p>
<h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$1.2 萬億</p>
<p>日內區間</p>
<p>$1092.99 - $1149.21</p>
<p>52 周區間</p>
<p>$103.38 - $1149.43</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>1.8 百萬</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>51.2 百萬</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>58.54%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.05%</p>
<p>那麼，這輪上漲結束了嗎？</p>
<p>我認為這一季度不會給出答案。記錄基本上已經確定，對我來説，報告的關鍵在於前景。只要管理層繼續描述市場供應短缺，並暗示 2027 年的形勢與 2026 年相似，牛市的前景可能仍將保持不變。</p>
<p>但現在的價格幾乎沒有留給失望的空間。對明年定價的謹慎表態，或任何客户回撤的跡象，都可能會使股價大幅下跌，因為市場已經定價了太多的樂觀情緒。內存熱潮可能會繼續，但在像這一年這樣的年份之後，風險在於市場正在對此寄予厚望。</p>

美光科技

1 倍做空 MU ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多美光科技 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 MU ETF - GraniteShares

MUYY

<p>美光科技即將公佈 2026 財年第三季度財報，指引顯示收入將創紀錄，約為 335 億美元，每股收益為 19.15 美元，這一增長主要受到人工智能推動的高帶寬內存需求的驅動。儘管短期業績預計將超出預期，但投資者將關注管理層對 2027 年供應限制和定價能力的評論。該股票目前的估值較高，因此未來展望對維持其上漲勢頭至關重要</p>

<p>Few stocks have ridden the artificial intelligence (AI) boom quite like <strong>Micron Technology</strong>( MU +8.80%). The memory chipmaker's stock has more than tripled in 2026, up nearly 300% year to date as of this writing and trading around $1,134 after a fresh run to record highs. The company is now valued at close to $1.3 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很少有股票像 <strong>美光科技</strong>（MU +8.80%）一樣在人工智能（AI）熱潮中表現如此出色。這家內存芯片製造商的股價在 2026 年已經上漲了三倍，截至目前上漲近 300%，交易價格約為$1,134，剛剛創下新高。該公司的市值現在接近 1.3 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p>That sets a high bar heading into Wednesday. When Micron reports its fiscal third quarter of 2026 (the period ended May 28, 2026) after the close on June 24, another set of records looks all but assured -- management guided months ago for staggering growth. The real question is whether the outlook that comes with the report can justify a stock price that already assumes the boom keeps going.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這為週三的財報設定了一個高標準。當美光在 6 月 24 日收盤後發佈其 2026 財年第三季度財報（截至 2026 年 5 月 28 日）時，另一個創紀錄的業績幾乎是板上釘釘——管理層幾個月前就預告了驚人的增長。真正的問題是，隨報告發布的前景是否能證明當前的股價已經假設了這一熱潮將持續下去。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUzMzUvbWljcm9uLXN0b2NrLW11LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="A green stock chart with an upward trend." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F875335%2Fmicron-stock-mu.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The number that matters</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>重要數字</h2>
</div><p>The headline figure will be revenue. Micron has guided for about $33.5 billion, give or take $750 million -- up about 40% from the $23.86 billion it reported in its fiscal second quarter, which had itself nearly tripled from a year earlier. To put that in perspective, management has noted that its fiscal third-quarter revenue guidance alone tops the company's total revenue for any full year through fiscal 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>頭條數字將是收入。美光預計收入約為 335 億美元，誤差在 7.5 億美元左右——比其在財年第二季度報告的 238.6 億美元增長約 40%，而該季度的收入幾乎是去年同期的三倍。為了更好地理解，管理層指出，其財年第三季度的收入指引就超過了該公司在 2024 財年之前的任何一個完整年度的總收入。</p>
</div><p>Management also guided for a record non-GAAP (adjusted) gross margin of about 81% and earnings per share of around $19.15.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理層還預計非公認會計原則（調整後）毛利率將創下約 81% 的新高，每股收益約為 19.15 美元。</p>
</div><p>But the records aren't really the question -- the company's guidance all but assures them -- or at least something in the ballpark of what management guided for. What matters is what management says about memory pricing and supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但記錄並不是問題——公司的指引幾乎可以確保這些記錄的實現——或者至少是管理層所指引的範圍內的某些數據。真正重要的是管理層對內存定價和供應的看法。</p>
</div><p>That commentary is the engine behind the entire run. Micron has completed agreements on price and volume for its entire calendar 2026 high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一評論是整個上漲的動力。美光已完成其 2026 年高帶寬內存（HBM）供應的價格和數量協議。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We expect both DRAM and NAND industry bit demand in calendar 2026 to be constrained by supply,&#34; Micron said in its fiscal second-quarter prepared remarks, adding that it expects conditions to stay tight beyond this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光在其財年第二季度的準備發言中表示：“我們預計 2026 年日曆年內存行業的 DRAM 和 NAND 比特需求將受到供應的限制。” 並補充説，預計這種情況在今年之後仍將保持緊張。</p>
</div><p>The shortage, of course, traces back to AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，短缺的根源在於 AI。</p>
</div><p>Each new generation of <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +3.08%) chip -- the graphics processing units (GPUs) at the center of AI computing -- needs more memory, and the most advanced type uses far more factory capacity per bit than ordinary memory does. So as Micron shifts production toward HBM for Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin platform, it pulls capacity away from the standard memory that goes into laptops and data-center servers, keeping prices elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每一代新的 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA +3.08%）芯片——在 AI 計算中心的圖形處理單元（GPU）——需要更多的內存，而最先進的類型每比特所需的工廠產能遠高於普通內存。因此，隨着美光將生產轉向英偉達下一代 Vera Rubin 平台的 HBM，它將從用於筆記本電腦和數據中心服務器的標準內存中抽調產能，保持價格高企。</p>
</div><h2>The signal worth watching</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>值得關注的信號</h2>
</div><p>Memory is a famously cyclical business, and every prior boom has eventually given way to a glut of supply and falling prices. So, the most telling part of this report may not be the May quarter at all, but what management signals about 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>內存業務是一個著名的週期性行業，以前的每一次繁榮最終都讓位於供應過剩和價格下跌。因此，這份報告中最具指示性的部分可能根本不是 5 月的季度，而是管理層對 2027 年的信號。</p>
</div><p>What would be a red flag for investors? Any hint that pricing can't keep pushing higher would likely worry investors. Pricing, of course, is determined by supply and demand. And Micron has completed its 2026 HBM capacity supply agreements. But management is still working with customers on strategic customer agreements with specific multi-year commitments, and any softening there could signal that supply is starting to catch up with demand. And investors will be watching margins, too. Achieving its adjusted gross margin guidance of about 81% would already mark a record. But it's worth watching whether management expects that level to hold or to flatten from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對投資者來説，什麼會是一個紅旗？任何暗示價格無法繼續上漲的跡象都可能讓投資者感到擔憂。價格當然是由供需決定的。美光已經完成了其 2026 年 HBM 產能供應協議。但管理層仍在與客户進行戰略客户協議的談判，涉及特定的多年承諾，任何在這方面的軟化都可能表明供應開始趕上需求。投資者也會關注毛利率。實現約 81% 的調整後毛利率指引將標誌着創紀錄。但值得關注的是，管理層是否預計這一水平能夠維持，還是會從此平穩。</p>
</div><p>For now, the supply side still looks tight. Micron and its rivals are spending tens of billions on new factories -- including plants going up in Idaho and New York, with the first Idaho fab expected to begin initial wafer output in mid-calendar 2027 and the first New York fab expected to provide supply in 2030 and beyond. But those capital expenditures won't add meaningful capacity until late 2027. That could keep the squeeze in place a while longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，供應方面仍然看起來緊張。美光及其競爭對手正在投入數百億美元用於新工廠——包括在愛達荷州和紐約建設的工廠，預計第一座愛達荷州工廠將在 2027 年中期開始初步晶圓生產，第一座紐約工廠預計將在 2030 年及以後提供供應。但這些 資本支出 在 2027 年末之前不會增加顯著的產能。這可能會使緊張局面持續一段時間。</p>
</div><p>And that is the heart of the valuation debate. At around $1,134, Micron trades at more than 50 times earnings -- a multiple that looks steep for a memory maker. But those trailing earnings barely capture the inflection underway. The company's guidance for about $19.15 in fiscal third-quarter earnings per share alone sits well above the $12.20 it earned in the quarter just reported, so the stock looks far cheaper measured against what it could earn over the next year -- assuming the cycle holds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這也是 估值 辯論的核心。美光的股價約為$1,134，市盈率超過 50 倍——對於一家內存製造商來説，這個倍數看起來很高。但這些滯後收益幾乎無法反映正在發生的轉折。公司對財年第三季度每股收益約 19.15 美元的指引遠高於剛剛報告的季度的 12.20 美元，因此，與未來一年可能獲得的收益相比，股票看起來便宜得多——假設週期保持不變。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展開</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL01VLnBuZyZ3PTEyOA" alt="Micron Technology Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FMU.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: MU</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: MU</h2>
</div><p>Micron Technology</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光科技</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(8.80%) $91.81</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(8.80%) $91.81</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$1135.00</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1135.00</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$1.2T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1.2 萬億</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$1092.99 - $1149.21</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1092.99 - $1149.21</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$103.38 - $1149.43</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$103.38 - $1149.43</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>1.8M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1.8 百萬</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>51.2M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>51.2 百萬</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>58.54%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>58.54%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.05%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.05%</p>
</div><p>So is the rally finished?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，這輪上漲結束了嗎？</p>
</div><p>I don't think this quarter will settle it. The records are essentially baked in, and for me, the report comes down to the outlook. As long as management keeps describing a market short on supply and signals that 2027 is shaping up much like 2026, the bull case will likely remain intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為這一季度不會給出答案。記錄基本上已經確定，對我來説，報告的關鍵在於前景。只要管理層繼續描述市場供應短缺，並暗示 2027 年的形勢與 2026 年相似，牛市的前景可能仍將保持不變。</p>
</div><p>But the price now leaves little room for disappointment. A cautious word on next year's pricing, or any sign that customers are pulling back, could knock the stock down hard, given how much optimism is already priced in. The memory boom may well keep running. The risk, after a year like this one, is that the market is counting on it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但現在的價格幾乎沒有留給失望的空間。對明年定價的謹慎表態，或任何客户回撤的跡象，都可能會使股價大幅下跌，因為市場已經定價了太多的樂觀情緒。內存熱潮可能會繼續，但在像這一年這樣的年份之後，風險在於市場正在對此寄予厚望。</p>
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Micron's Earnings Report Is Almost Here. Can the Memory Boom Keep Going?

- Micron 股票在 2026 年上漲近 300%，市值接近 1.3 萬億美元。  
- 第三季度預計收入約 335 億美元，創下新高，但未來價格和供需關係引發關注。  
- 投資者擔心任何價格下滑信號可能導致股票大幅回落。

美光科技的財報即將發佈。存儲器行業的繁榮能否持續下去？