<p>作者：Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<p>特朗普任命的美聯儲主席可能希望加息威脅足夠有效。但如果他這樣做，股票可能會獲得上漲空間。過去的加息週期可以作為參考。</p>
<p>根據凱文·沃什的説法，美聯儲正在發生變化。</p>
<p>凱文·沃什希望為美聯儲書寫一個 “新篇章”，在這個篇章中，市場的聲音比中央銀行更響亮，甚至加息的威脅也可能有助於贏得抗擊通脹的鬥爭。</p>
<p>美聯儲的指導減少可能會引入更多市場波動，但華爾街似乎已經開始接受這一想法。</p>
<p>&#34;我確實認為美聯儲説得少一點是件好事，&#34; SoFi 的首席市場策略師莉茲·托馬斯表示。&#34;是的，這將是一個變化，&#34;她説，但這將讓市場關注其他事情，而不是美聯儲的聲明和前瞻性指引，這些只是最佳猜測，往往不準確，&#34;她補充道。</p>
<p>美聯儲在 6 月會議結束時保持利率不變，發佈了一份簡短聲明，併為今年的加息留出了可能性。會後股票下跌，但它們仍然錄得了周度漲幅。</p>
<p>政策敏感的 2 年期國債收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD02Y 在本週結束時為 4.177%，為 2025 年 2 月以來的最高水平，依據道瓊斯市場數據。這表明投資者正在認真對待美聯儲加息的威脅，而通脹率超過 4%。</p>
<p>沃什在週三擔任美聯儲主席的首次新聞發佈會上重申了美聯儲將通脹降至 2% 的目標。更引起轟動的是他建議金融市場的定價應當主導，而不是美聯儲，來發出經濟、利率和通脹可能走向何方的信號。</p>
<p>&#34;我喜歡溝通，&#34;富國銀行投資研究所的高級全球市場策略師斯科特·倫説，並補充説在他作為貨幣交易員的 1980 年代，美聯儲的溝通太少了。</p>
<p>然而，華爾街的工作是&#34;對經濟和通脹做出預測，&#34;倫説。&#34;我們的工作不是坐在那裏猜測&#34;美聯儲可能會對此説些什麼。</p>
<p>&#34;美聯儲往往是反應性的，&#34;倫補充道。&#34;他們跟隨市場可能更好，而不是引領市場。&#34;他仍然不相信美聯儲需要加息，因為看起來只是暫時的油價衝擊。</p>
<p>相反，他團隊的預測是美聯儲將在當前的 3.5%-3.75% 區間內保持利率不變，直到 2027 年底，這將為比許多人在今年初預期的更長時間內提供更高的利率背景。</p>
<p>股票與過去的加息週期</p>
<p>現在還為時已早，無法判斷美國與伊朗之間最新的、已經不穩定的 60 天停火是否會變成持久和平。油價 (CL00)(BRN00) 已經暴跌，但尚不清楚它們是否會保持在足夠低的水平，以快速降低通脹，從而避免今年的美聯儲加息。</p>
<p>從積極的一面看，歷史數據顯示，過去的加息週期並沒有使股市陷入困境。自 1990 年代初以來，標普 500 指數 SPX 在過去五個加息週期中有四個期間上漲，如下圖所示。</p>
<p>關於人工智能經濟</p>
<p>儘管借貸成本上升，經濟卻出乎意料地表現出韌性。在某些時候，對更強經濟增長的樂觀情緒幫助了牛市超越了科技領導地位。</p>
<p>但其主要的強勁來源也可能轉變為弱點。企業借貸激增以推動人工智能競賽。但美國家庭的儲蓄率也急劇下降，這推動了消費，儘管實際收入與一年前相比已經收縮，如下圖所示。</p>
<p>法國外貿銀行指出，如果美國的儲蓄率停止下降，消費者支出將與收入同步增長，而收入正在下降。</p>
<p>隨着人工智能驅動的牛市持續，家庭感到更加富裕，&#34;這很好，直到資產價格再次下跌，&#34;法國外貿銀行的全球策略師阿爾伯特·愛德華茲在週四的客户報告中表示。</p>
<p>&#34;因此，消費和投資都依賴於人工智能 ‘泡沫’ 不破裂，&#34;他説。</p>
<p>SoFi 的托馬斯表示，如果美聯儲因為高通脹而需要加息，那對股票來説並不好。&#34;這可能有助於美聯儲的信譽，表明他們認真對待降低通脹，即使這會造成痛苦，&#34;她説。</p>
<p>&#34;但人工智能的推動需要繼續，&#34;托馬斯説。&#34;這就是支撐我們牛市的很多原因，&#34;她説。人們對人工智能提高生產力、降低通脹以及公司支出能夠保持經濟活力的熱情也在增加，&#34;沒有這個表演，就沒有表演。&#34;</p>
<p>根據 FactSet，標普 500 指數在假期縮短的一週上漲了 0.9%，道瓊斯工業平均指數 DJIA 上漲了 0.7%，納斯達克綜合指數 COMP 上漲了 2.4%。所有三個指數距離其之前的歷史最高點均不超過 2.1%。</p>
<p>Tomi Kilgore 和 Ken Jimenez 作出了貢獻。</p>
<p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
<p>06-21-26 1842ET</p>

標普 500 指數

標普 500 指數股票型基金

標普 500 ETF - iShares

<p>凱文·沃什（Kevin Warsh），特朗普任命的美聯儲主席，主張減少中央銀行的指導，建議金融市場應主導經濟信號的傳遞。儘管這一轉變可能會增加市場波動性，但華爾街分析師對此持積極態度，因為這使市場能夠更專注於預測而非美聯儲的聲明。歷史數據顯示，自 1990 年代以來，過去的加息週期並不一定會結束牛市，標普 500 指數在五個此類週期中有四個實現了上漲。然而，目前市場的韌性在很大程度上依賴於持續的人工智能驅動的樂觀情緒和企業借貸</p>

<p>By Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Joy Wiltermuth</p>
</div><p>Trump-selected Fed chair may hope the threat of rate hikes is enough. But stocks might gain ground if he does. Past rate-hike cycles can be a guide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普任命的美聯儲主席可能希望加息威脅足夠有效。但如果他這樣做，股票可能會獲得上漲空間。過去的加息週期可以作為參考。</p>
</div><p>Charges are afoot at the Federal Reserve, according to Kevin Warsh.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據凱文·沃什的説法，美聯儲正在發生變化。</p>
</div><p>Kevin Warsh wants to write a &#34;new chapter&#34; for the Federal Reserve, where markets talk louder than the central bank, and even the threat of rate hikes might help win the inflation fight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凱文·沃什希望為美聯儲書寫一個 “新篇章”，在這個篇章中，市場的聲音比中央銀行更響亮，甚至加息的威脅也可能有助於贏得抗擊通脹的鬥爭。</p>
</div><p>Less Fed guidance risks introducing more volatility into markets, but Wall Street seems to be warming to the idea already.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲的指導減少可能會引入更多市場波動，但華爾街似乎已經開始接受這一想法。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I do think it's a good thing for the Fed to say a little less,&#34; said Liz Thomas, chief market strategist at SoFi. &#34;Yes, it would be a change,&#34; she said, but it would let markets focus on other things, instead of Fed statements and forward guidance, which are just a best guess and often incorrect, she added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我確實認為美聯儲説得少一點是件好事，&#34; SoFi 的首席市場策略師莉茲·托馬斯表示。&#34;是的，這將是一個變化，&#34;她説，但這將讓市場關注其他事情，而不是美聯儲的聲明和前瞻性指引，這些只是最佳猜測，往往不準確，&#34;她補充道。</p>
</div><p>Fed officials wrapped up their June meeting by holding rates steady, issuing a brief statement and leaving the door open to rate hikes this year. Stocks fell afterward, but they posted weekly gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲在 6 月會議結束時保持利率不變，發佈了一份簡短聲明，併為今年的加息留出了可能性。會後股票下跌，但它們仍然錄得了周度漲幅。</p>
</div><p>The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD02Y reacted by ending the week at 4.177%, the highest since February 2025, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That signals investors are taking the threat of Fed rate hikes seriously, with inflation above 4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策敏感的 2 年期國債收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD02Y 在本週結束時為 4.177%，為 2025 年 2 月以來的最高水平，依據道瓊斯市場數據。這表明投資者正在認真對待美聯儲加息的威脅，而通脹率超過 4%。</p>
</div><p>Warsh reiterated the Fed's goal of getting inflation down to 2%, during his first press briefing at the helm of the central bank on Wednesday. What caused more of a stir was his suggestion that pricing in financial markets should take the lead - not the Fed - in terms of signaling where the economy, rates and inflation could be headed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什在週三擔任美聯儲主席的首次新聞發佈會上重申了美聯儲將通脹降至 2% 的目標。更引起轟動的是他建議金融市場的定價應當主導，而不是美聯儲，來發出經濟、利率和通脹可能走向何方的信號。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I do like communication,&#34; said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, adding that there was too little Fed communication in the 1980s, when he was a currency trader.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我喜歡溝通，&#34;富國銀行投資研究所的高級全球市場策略師斯科特·倫説，並補充説在他作為貨幣交易員的 1980 年代，美聯儲的溝通太少了。</p>
</div><p>Yet Wall Street's job is to &#34;make projections on the economy and inflation,&#34; Wren said. &#34;Our job is not to sit there and wonder&#34; what the Fed might say about it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，華爾街的工作是&#34;對經濟和通脹做出預測，&#34;倫説。&#34;我們的工作不是坐在那裏猜測&#34;美聯儲可能會對此説些什麼。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The Fed tends to be reactive,&#34; Wren added. &#34;It's probably better they follow the market, rather than lead.&#34; He still isn't convinced the Fed needs to hike rates, because of what looks to be a temporary oil shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;美聯儲往往是反應性的，&#34;倫補充道。&#34;他們跟隨市場可能更好，而不是引領市場。&#34;他仍然不相信美聯儲需要加息，因為看起來只是暫時的油價衝擊。</p>
</div><p>Instead, his team's call is for the Fed to hold rates steady in the current 3.5%-to-3.75% range through the end of 2027, which would set the stage for a higher rate backdrop for much longer than many anticipated at the start of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，他團隊的預測是美聯儲將在當前的 3.5%-3.75% 區間內保持利率不變，直到 2027 年底，這將為比許多人在今年初預期的更長時間內提供更高的利率背景。</p>
</div><p>Stocks and past hiking cycles</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票與過去的加息週期</p>
</div><p>It's too early to tell if the latest, and already shaky, 60-day cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran turns into a lasting peace. Oil prices (CL00) (BRN00) have tumbled, but it's unclear that they will stay low enough to coax inflation down fast enough to avoid a Fed rate hike this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在還為時已早，無法判斷美國與伊朗之間最新的、已經不穩定的 60 天停火是否會變成持久和平。油價 (CL00)(BRN00) 已經暴跌，但尚不清楚它們是否會保持在足夠低的水平，以快速降低通脹，從而避免今年的美聯儲加息。</p>
</div><p>On the positive side, a historical look at the stock market shows that past rate-hike cycles didn't doom the stock market. Since the early 1990s, the S&amp;P 500 SPX rose during four of the five past hiking periods, as the below chart shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從積極的一面看，歷史數據顯示，過去的加息週期並沒有使股市陷入困境。自 1990 年代初以來，標普 500 指數 SPX 在過去五個加息週期中有四個期間上漲，如下圖所示。</p>
</div><p>About the AI economy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於人工智能經濟</p>
</div><p>The economy has been surprisingly resilient, even with higher borrowing costs in the background. At times, optimism around stronger economic growth has helped the bull market broaden out beyond its tech leadership.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管借貸成本上升，經濟卻出乎意料地表現出韌性。在某些時候，對更強經濟增長的樂觀情緒幫助了牛市超越了科技領導地位。</p>
</div><p>But its main source of strength could also turn into weakness. Corporate borrowing has been surging to fuel the artificial-intelligence race. But the savings rate of U.S. households also has plunged, which has helped drive consumption, even though real incomes have contracted from a year ago, as the chart below shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但其主要的強勁來源也可能轉變為弱點。企業借貸激增以推動人工智能競賽。但美國家庭的儲蓄率也急劇下降，這推動了消費，儘管實際收入與一年前相比已經收縮，如下圖所示。</p>
</div><p>Société Générale notes that if the U.S. saving ratio stops falling, consumer spending will grow in line with income, which is falling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法國外貿銀行指出，如果美國的儲蓄率停止下降，消費者支出將與收入同步增長，而收入正在下降。</p>
</div><p>Households are feeling wealthier as the AI-driven bull market continues, which is &#34;all well and good until asset prices go back down,&#34; said Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale, in a Thursday client note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着人工智能驅動的牛市持續，家庭感到更加富裕，&#34;這很好，直到資產價格再次下跌，&#34;法國外貿銀行的全球策略師阿爾伯特·愛德華茲在週四的客户報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Hence both consumption and investment are dependent on the AI 'bubble' not bursting,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;因此，消費和投資都依賴於人工智能 ‘泡沫’ 不破裂，&#34;他説。</p>
</div><p>Thomas at SoFi said that if the Fed ends up needing to raise rates because of high inflation, that wouldn't be great for stocks. &#34;It may help the credibility of the Fed, showing they're serious about getting inflation back down, even if it creates pain,&#34; she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SoFi 的托馬斯表示，如果美聯儲因為高通脹而需要加息，那對股票來説並不好。&#34;這可能有助於美聯儲的信譽，表明他們認真對待降低通脹，即使這會造成痛苦，&#34;她説。</p>
</div><p>&#34;But the AI push needs to keep going,&#34; Thomas said. &#34;That's a lot of what's holding us up,&#34; she said of the bull market. There's also enthusiasm around AI increasing productivity, bringing inflation down and hope that company spending can keep the economy humming, she said. &#34;Without that show, there is no show.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;但人工智能的推動需要繼續，&#34;托馬斯説。&#34;這就是支撐我們牛市的很多原因，&#34;她説。人們對人工智能提高生產力、降低通脹以及公司支出能夠保持經濟活力的熱情也在增加，&#34;沒有這個表演，就沒有表演。&#34;</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.9% in the holiday-shortened week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA rose 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP gained 2.4%, according to FactSet. All three indexes ended 2.1% or less away from their previous record highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 FactSet，標普 500 指數在假期縮短的一週上漲了 0.9%，道瓊斯工業平均指數 DJIA 上漲了 0.7%，納斯達克綜合指數 COMP 上漲了 2.4%。所有三個指數距離其之前的歷史最高點均不超過 2.1%。</p>
</div><p>Tomi Kilgore and Ken Jimenez contributed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Tomi Kilgore 和 Ken Jimenez 作出了貢獻。</p>
</div><p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>06-21-26 1842ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>06-21-26 1842ET</p>
</div>

This bull market isn't going to end because of Fed rate hikes under Warsh

- 美聯儲主席 Kevin Warsh 計劃改變市場與美聯儲的溝通方式。  
- 歷史數據顯示，過去的加息週期並未導致股市崩潰。  
- 美股在短假周漲幅顯著，S&P 500 上漲 0.9%。

在沃什的領導下，這個牛市不會因為美聯儲的加息而結束