<p><strong>比特幣</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) 如果美聯儲不加息，可能會迎來反彈，Bitwise 首席投資官 <strong>Matt Hougan</strong> 表示。</p>
<p>自 2 月底伊朗衝突開始以來，美國股市上漲了大約 9%，而比特幣下跌了 1%，黃金則下跌了 20%。</p>
<p>在 6 月 22 日的 &#34;The Stack&#34; 帖子 中，Grayscale 研究主管 <strong>Zach Pandl</strong> 指出，隨着投資者越來越多地考慮到因通脹擔憂而可能收緊貨幣政策的可能性，市場出現了分歧。</p>
<p>Hougan 指出，一年期美聯儲利率預期上升了約 60 個基點，而大約一半的美聯儲官員認為在 2026 年加息是合適的。</p>
<p>歐洲中央銀行已經開始加息。</p>
<p>由於比特幣和黃金不產生收益，更高的利率增加了持有這些資產相對於現金和債券的機會成本，從而抑制了需求。</p>
<p>在過去一個月中，比特幣價格下跌了約 19%，其三個月的跌幅擴大至約 13%。</p>
<h2><strong>比特幣可能受益的原因</strong></h2>
<p>Hougan 認為市場可能高估了未來加息的可能性。</p>
<p>儘管美聯儲將當前基準 聯邦基金利率保持不變，維持在 3.5% 到 3.75% 的區間內，但美國銀行 預測利率將在 2026 年底前提高 75 個基點。</p>
<p>“我們的基本假設是美聯儲將暫停加息，” 他説。“如果我們是對的，比特幣的價格可能會追趕股票。”</p>
<p>儘管與人工智能相關的支出推動了股市的上漲，但比特幣和黃金的表現滯後，部分原因是人們擔心中央銀行需要進一步收緊政策以應對通脹。</p>
<p>如果這些擔憂減輕，資金可能會重新流入比特幣等替代資產。</p>
<h2><strong>比特幣的雙重角色</strong></h2>
<p>與黃金不同，Hougan 認為比特幣在投資組合中發揮着兩種功能。</p>
<p>他將比特幣描述為一種稀缺的數字商品，既是長期價值儲存工具，也是一個公共區塊鏈網絡，提供對更廣泛加密經濟增長的曝光。</p>
<p>這種組合賦予比特幣既有黃金的特性，又有成長型股票的特性，可能使其成為一個有吸引力的投資組合多樣化工具。</p>
<p>“比特幣可以作為一個投資組合多樣化工具，目前的價格看起來具有吸引力，” Hougan 説。</p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>

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<p>Bitwise 首席投資官 Matt Hougan 表示，如果美聯儲維持利率不變且通脹擔憂減輕，比特幣可能會反彈。他認為市場高估了緊縮政策，並指出比特幣因潛在加息帶來的更高機會成本而落後於股票。如果美聯儲維持當前利率水平，資金可能會重新流入比特幣，Hougan 認為比特幣是一個具有吸引力的投資組合多樣化工具，結合了價值儲存和增長特性</p>

<p><strong>Bitcoin</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) may be positioned for a catch-up rally if the Federal Reserve refrains from raising interest rates, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer <strong>Matt Hougan</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特幣</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) 如果美聯儲不加息，可能會迎來反彈，Bitwise 首席投資官 <strong>Matt Hougan</strong> 表示。</p>
</div><p>Since the start of the Iran conflict in late February, U.S. equities have gained roughly 9%, while Bitcoin has slipped 1% and gold has fallen 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2 月底伊朗衝突開始以來，美國股市上漲了大約 9%，而比特幣下跌了 1%，黃金則下跌了 20%。</p>
</div><p>In a &#34;The Stack&#34; post on June 22, Grayscale Head of Research <strong>Zach Pandl</strong> noted that the divergence comes as investors increasingly price in the possibility of tighter monetary policy amid inflation concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 6 月 22 日的 &#34;The Stack&#34; 帖子 中，Grayscale 研究主管 <strong>Zach Pandl</strong> 指出，隨着投資者越來越多地考慮到因通脹擔憂而可能收緊貨幣政策的可能性，市場出現了分歧。</p>
</div><p>One-year Fed rate expectations have risen about 60 basis points, while roughly half of Federal Reserve officials believe rate hikes could be appropriate in 2026, Hougan noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hougan 指出，一年期美聯儲利率預期上升了約 60 個基點，而大約一半的美聯儲官員認為在 2026 年加息是合適的。</p>
</div><p>The European Central Bank has already moved to raise rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐洲中央銀行已經開始加息。</p>
</div><p>Because Bitcoin and gold do not generate yield, higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding those assets relative to cash and bonds, weighing on demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於比特幣和黃金不產生收益，更高的利率增加了持有這些資產相對於現金和債券的機會成本，從而抑制了需求。</p>
</div><p>Over the past month, Bitcoin’s price has fallen roughly 19%, extending its three-month decline to about 13%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去一個月中，比特幣價格下跌了約 19%，其三個月的跌幅擴大至約 13%。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Why Bitcoin Could Benefit</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特幣可能受益的原因</strong></h2>
</div><p>Hougan argued that markets may be overestimating the likelihood of future rate hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hougan 認為市場可能高估了未來加息的可能性。</p>
</div><p>While the Fed left its current benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, Bank of America predicts rates to be raised by 75 basis points before the end of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管美聯儲將當前基準 聯邦基金利率保持不變，維持在 3.5% 到 3.75% 的區間內，但美國銀行 預測利率將在 2026 年底前提高 75 個基點。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Our base case is for the Fed to hold off on rate hikes,” he said. “If we’re right, Bitcoin’s price may catch up with stocks.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們的基本假設是美聯儲將暫停加息，” 他説。“如果我們是對的，比特幣的價格可能會追趕股票。”</p>
</div><p>While AI-related spending has fueled gains in equities, Bitcoin and gold have lagged partly due to fears that central banks will need to tighten policy further to combat inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管與人工智能相關的支出推動了股市的上漲，但比特幣和黃金的表現滯後，部分原因是人們擔心中央銀行需要進一步收緊政策以應對通脹。</p>
</div><p>If those concerns ease, capital could rotate back into alternative assets such as Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果這些擔憂減輕，資金可能會重新流入比特幣等替代資產。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin’s Dual Role</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特幣的雙重角色</strong></h2>
</div><p>Unlike gold, Hougan views Bitcoin as serving two functions within portfolios.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與黃金不同，Hougan 認為比特幣在投資組合中發揮着兩種功能。</p>
</div><p>He described Bitcoin as both a scarce digital commodity that acts as a long-term store of value and a public blockchain network that provides exposure to growth in the broader crypto economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他將比特幣描述為一種稀缺的數字商品，既是長期價值儲存工具，也是一個公共區塊鏈網絡，提供對更廣泛加密經濟增長的曝光。</p>
</div><p>That combination gives Bitcoin characteristics of both gold and growth equities, potentially making it an attractive portfolio diversifier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種組合賦予比特幣既有黃金的特性，又有成長型股票的特性，可能使其成為一個有吸引力的投資組合多樣化工具。</p>
</div><p>“Bitcoin can act as a portfolio diversifier that, at current levels, appears attractively priced,” Hougan said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“比特幣可以作為一個投資組合多樣化工具，目前的價格看起來具有吸引力，” Hougan 説。</p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Bitcoin Could Start A Catch-Up Rally—But The Fed Has To Play Ball, Bitwise's Matt Hougan Says

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比特幣可能會啓動一場追趕式反彈——但美聯儲需要配合，Bitwise 的 Matt Hougan 表示