<p><strong>比特幣</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) 可能更接近找到其底部，但 CryptoQuant 研究主管 <strong>Julio Moreno</strong> 警告稱，鏈上需求尚未確認一個持久的底部。</p>
<h2><strong>比特幣拒絕關鍵阻力位</strong></h2>
<p>Moreno 在 6 月 23 日的 Milk Road Show 上表示，比特幣近期在 $80,000 附近的拒絕與熊市反彈一致，而不是新牛市階段的開始。</p>
<p>比特幣從低於 $60,000 到約 $80,000 的漲幅缺乏支撐牛市突破所需的基礎現貨需求。</p>
<p>Moreno 指出，200 日移動平均線是比特幣未能重新奪回的關鍵阻力位。比特幣隨後重新測試了 2 月的低點，短暫交易接近 $59,000。</p>
<p>Moreno 強調，他偏愛的底部指標之一是比特幣的實現價格，衡量的是幣最後移動的平均價格，目前接近 $53,000。這使得該資產相對接近他所稱的 “價值區”。</p>
<p>“對我來説，這大約是實現價格，” Moreno 説。“我們真的很接近。”</p>
<p>然而，他警告説，接近底部並不意味着市場不能先進一步下跌。</p>
<p>在撰寫本文時，比特幣價格跌破 $62,000，使其七天的損失約為 5%。</p>
<h2><strong>需求仍然疲軟</strong></h2>
<p>更大的擔憂是比特幣需求仍在收縮。</p>
<p>CryptoQuant 的顯性需求指標，結合了鏈上現貨需求和永續期貨活動，最近以自 2022 年 1 月以來最快的速度下降。這是因為早期向 $80,000 的反彈主要是由投機性期貨需求驅動的。</p>
<p>Moreno 還強調，比特幣 ETF 的需求在年基礎上首次趨於平穩，自現貨比特幣 ETF 推出以來。</p>
<p>他提醒道，ETF 持有量在牛市階段迅速增長，但隨後急劇放緩，出現了一些淨賣出期。</p>
<p>截至 6 月 23 日，現貨比特幣 ETF 錄得 $25 億的淨流出，而現貨以太坊 ETF 報告淨流出 $3.464 億，根據 SoSoValue 數據。</p>
<h2><strong>放棄信號尚不明確</strong></h2>
<p>Moreno 跟蹤另一個指標，即實現損失，衡量的是以虧損價格轉移的比特幣數量。</p>
<p>歷史上，主要的熊市底部通常與實現損失的大幅激增相吻合，表明賣方疲憊。但最新的修正尚未產生與之前週期底部相同水平的放棄。</p>
<p>“我們還沒有看到那麼大的損失實現，” Moreno 説。</p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>

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IBIT

<p>CryptoQuant 的 Julio Moreno 表示，比特幣可能接近其實現價格 53,000 美元的熊市底部，但警告稱持久的需求尚未出現。鏈上活動依然疲軟，ETF 資金流入停滯，最近出現了淨流出，關鍵的投降信號如顯著的實現損失也缺失。最近上漲至 80,000 美元缺乏現貨需求，表明這可能是熊市反彈，而非牛市的開始</p>

<p><strong>Bitcoin</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) may be closer to finding its floor, but CryptoQuant Head of Research <strong>Julio Moreno</strong> warns that on-chain demand has not yet confirmed a durable bottom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特幣</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) 可能更接近找到其底部，但 CryptoQuant 研究主管 <strong>Julio Moreno</strong> 警告稱，鏈上需求尚未確認一個持久的底部。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin Rejects Key Resistance</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特幣拒絕關鍵阻力位</strong></h2>
</div><p>Speaking on June 23 at Milk Road Show, Moreno said Bitcoin’s recent rejection near $80,000 was consistent with a bear market rally rather than the start of a new bull phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moreno 在 6 月 23 日的 Milk Road Show 上表示，比特幣近期在 $80,000 附近的拒絕與熊市反彈一致，而不是新牛市階段的開始。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin’s move from the low $60,000s to around $80,000 lacked the underlying spot demand needed to sustain a bull-market breakout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣從低於 $60,000 到約 $80,000 的漲幅缺乏支撐牛市突破所需的基礎現貨需求。</p>
</div><p>Moreno pointed to the 200-day moving average as a key resistance level that Bitcoin failed to reclaim. Bitcoin has since retested the February lows, briefly trading near $59,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moreno 指出，200 日移動平均線是比特幣未能重新奪回的關鍵阻力位。比特幣隨後重新測試了 2 月的低點，短暫交易接近 $59,000。</p>
</div><p>Moreno highlighted that one of his preferred bottom indicators BTC’s realized price, measuring the average price at which coins last moved, currently sits near $53,000. This puts the asset relatively close to what he calls the “value zone.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moreno 強調，他偏愛的底部指標之一是比特幣的實現價格，衡量的是幣最後移動的平均價格，目前接近 $53,000。這使得該資產相對接近他所稱的 “價值區”。</p>
</div><p>“For me, it’s around the realized price,” Moreno said. “We’re really close.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“對我來説，這大約是實現價格，” Moreno 説。“我們真的很接近。”</p>
</div><p>However, he cautioned that being close to the floor does not mean the market cannot move lower first.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，他警告説，接近底部並不意味着市場不能先進一步下跌。</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, BTC prices slipped below $62,000 taking its seven-day loss to around 5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在撰寫本文時，比特幣價格跌破 $62,000，使其七天的損失約為 5%。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Demand Still Weak</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>需求仍然疲軟</strong></h2>
</div><p>The bigger concern is that Bitcoin demand is still contracting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更大的擔憂是比特幣需求仍在收縮。</p>
</div><p>CryptoQuant’s apparent demand metric, which combines on-chain spot demand with perpetual futures activity, recently fell at its fastest pace since January 2022. This is because the earlier rally toward $80,000 was driven mainly by speculative futures demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CryptoQuant 的顯性需求指標，結合了鏈上現貨需求和永續期貨活動，最近以自 2022 年 1 月以來最快的速度下降。這是因為早期向 $80,000 的反彈主要是由投機性期貨需求驅動的。</p>
</div><p>Moreno also highlighted that Bitcoin ETF demand has flattened on an annual basis for the first time since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moreno 還強調，比特幣 ETF 的需求在年基礎上首次趨於平穩，自現貨比特幣 ETF 推出以來。</p>
</div><p>He reminded how ETF holdings grew rapidly during the bull phase but have since slowed sharply, with some periods of net selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他提醒道，ETF 持有量在牛市階段迅速增長，但隨後急劇放緩，出現了一些淨賣出期。</p>
</div><p>Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.5 billion in net outflows as of June 23 while Spot Ethereum ETFs reported a $346.4 million net outflow, according to SoSoValue data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 6 月 23 日，現貨比特幣 ETF 錄得 $25 億的淨流出，而現貨以太坊 ETF 報告淨流出 $3.464 億，根據 SoSoValue 數據。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Capitulation Signal Not Yet Clear</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>放棄信號尚不明確</strong></h2>
</div><p>Moreno tracks another metric which is realized losse measuring how much Bitcoin is moved at a loss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moreno 跟蹤另一個指標，即實現損失，衡量的是以虧損價格轉移的比特幣數量。</p>
</div><p>Historically, major bear-market bottoms have coincided with large spikes in realized losses, signaling seller exhaustion. But the latest correction has not yet produced the same level of capitulation seen in prior cycle bottoms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，主要的熊市底部通常與實現損失的大幅激增相吻合，表明賣方疲憊。但最新的修正尚未產生與之前週期底部相同水平的放棄。</p>
</div><p>“We haven’t seen that big of a loss realization,” Moreno said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們還沒有看到那麼大的損失實現，” Moreno 説。</p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Bitcoin Plunges To $62,000: What Is Going On?

benzinga_article

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC - ETF

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF

CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

Franklin Bitcoin ETF

ETC Holdings Ltd. (Guernsey)

博時比特幣

華夏比特幣

MBC比特幣

比特幣跌至 62,000 美元：究竟發生了什麼？