<p>這兩家公司顯然有很多共同點，超出了埃隆·馬斯克作為首席執行官的身份。現實是，它們今天的股票價值和購買並不是基於當前的收益，而是基於它們未來可能成為的樣子。</p>
<p>然而，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 0.13%）和 <strong>太空探索技術公司</strong>（SPCX +0.69%），更廣為人知的是 SpaceX，在投資特徵上存在關鍵差異，這使得它們適合不同類型的投資者，並且挑戰了將特斯拉併入 SpaceX 的想法。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvcmVsYXhlZC1pbnZlc3Rvci13YXRjaGluZy1zdG9ja3MtYW5hbHlzdC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvcmVsYXhlZC1pbnZlc3Rvci13YXRjaGluZy1zdG9ja3MtYW5hbHlzdC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>特斯拉與 SpaceX 之間的三大關鍵差異</h2>
<p>需要考慮的主要因素如下：</p>
<ul>
<li>特斯拉的項目（電動車、機器人出租車和 Optimus 機器人）體現了人工智能（AI）。與此同時，SpaceX 在很大程度上依賴於對 AI 的最終需求，尤其是其 xAI 業務和軌道數據中心的雄心。</li>
<li>儘管馬斯克曾表達過延遲和過於樂觀的假設，特斯拉的長期經常性收入驅動因素，即機器人出租車和 Optimus，實際上比 SpaceX 更接近於近期實現。</li>
<li>這兩家公司在中期資本支出需求和現金流特徵上有着巨大的不同，SpaceX 需要的投資顯著更多。</li>
</ul>
<p>綜合這些觀點，很明顯，儘管兩者都是成長型股票並以此定價，但特斯拉的風險低於 SpaceX，並且在開始擴大收益和現金流之前的時間跨度更短。這並不是説特斯拉一定是更好的股票，而是指出它們適合不同類型的投資者。</p>
<p>展開</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="特斯拉股票報價" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<p>特斯拉</p>
<p>今日變動</p>
<p>(-0.13%) $-0.51</p>
<p>當前價格</p>
<p>$381.10</p>
<h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$1.4 萬億</p>
<p>日內區間</p>
<p>$378.73 - $384.56</p>
<p>52 周區間</p>
<p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>343.9K</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>57.5M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>19.07%</p>
<h2>資本支出需求和現金流</h2>
<p>下圖顯示了華爾街對資本支出的共識。這意味着到 2026 年，SpaceX 的資本支出將超過其收入，並且到 2030 年仍將佔收入的 40%。</p>
<p>與此同時，特斯拉的相對資本支出預計將隨着收入的增長而下降，其在 確保供應鏈的重大投資階段 將逐漸減弱。特斯拉目前正在大力投資建設鋰精煉廠和鋰電池生產廠，並開始生產 Cybercab、Semi 和 Optimus。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvc3BhY2V4LWFuZC10ZXNsYS1jYXBpdGFsLWV4cGVuZGl0dXJlcy1zaGFyZS1vZi1yZXZlbnVlLnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvc3BhY2V4LWFuZC10ZXNsYS1jYXBpdGFsLWV4cGVuZGl0dXJlcy1zaGFyZS1vZi1yZXZlbnVlLnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>數據來源：S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence。華爾街共識。圖表由作者製作。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的催化劑是近期的</h2>
<p>考慮到特斯拉的關鍵舉措（機器人出租車/Cybercab 和 Optimus）的時機，投資者可能會感到不安；現實是，它們比軌道數據中心更接近實現。</p>
<p>例如，特斯拉在推進機器人出租車的推出時採取了非常謹慎的態度。在上一次財報電話會議上，馬斯克明確表示：“在我們知道有軟件改進在路上可以提高安全性時，去進行大規模的無監督 FSD 是不對的。” 這些改進可能會在其全自動駕駛（FSD）軟件的 v15 版本中於 2026 年底或 2027 年初推出。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvNC10ZXNsYXMtaW4tYS1wYXJraW5nLWxvdC1hdC1hLWNoYXJnZXItc3RhdGlvbi0xLnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvNC10ZXNsYXMtaW4tYS1wYXJraW5nLWxvdC1hdC1hLWNoYXJnZXItc3RhdGlvbi0xLnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
<p>那時，投資者可以開始期待一個顯著的 “非常大規模” 的推出。然而，這仍然比 SpaceX 的軌道數據中心要近得多。SpaceX 預計將在 2028 年部署它們，但在首次公開募股（IPO）註冊文件中明確指出，“涉及未經驗證或新創新的某些舉措的時間表，包括我們目標在軌道上部署 100 千兆瓦的年度計算能力……可能很難或不可能確定。”</p>
<h2>一種不同類型的 AI 公司</h2>
<p>如前所述，特斯拉的解決方案體現了 AI，使其成為參與 AI 能力增長的最激動人心的方式之一。雖然 SpaceX 也受益於這些趨勢，但它在很大程度上依賴於 AI 應用的增長。如果需求放緩，可能會 “導致現有的地面數據中心足以滿足這種需求，從而減少我們軌道 AI 計算基礎設施的需求，” 根據 SpaceX 的文件。</p>
<h2>哪隻股票更好？</h2>
<p>最終，決定取決於你的風險偏好、對 AI 應用增長的信心程度，以及願意等待每家公司增長催化劑實現的程度。</p>
<p>這些投資特徵的差異也使得潛在的合併變得有些問題，因為特斯拉的投資者將會用機器人出租車和 Optimus 帶來的經常性現金流的增長可能性，來交換這些現金流被再投資以支持 SpaceX 現有業務的長期增長的前景。除非收購價格是顯著的溢價，否則這可能不適合大多數特斯拉投資者。</p>

1.25 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

特斯拉

SPCX

<p>這篇文章比較了特斯拉和 SpaceX，認為儘管兩者有共同的領導層，但它們適合不同的投資者類型。主要區別在於，特斯拉的短期人工智能催化劑如機器人出租車，而 SpaceX 則依賴長期的軌道數據中心。特斯拉被認為風險較低，現金流潛力更早，而 SpaceX 則需要更高的資本支出。文章最後得出結論，由於這些不同的風險和時間特徵，合併是有問題的</p>

<p>The two companies obviously have a lot in common, and it goes beyond having Elon Musk as their CEO. The reality is that they are both stocks valued and bought today, not for their current earnings, but for what they could become in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這兩家公司顯然有很多共同點，超出了埃隆·馬斯克作為首席執行官的身份。現實是，它們今天的股票價值和購買並不是基於當前的收益，而是基於它們未來可能成為的樣子。</p>
</div><p>However, there are key differences between the investment profiles of <strong>Tesla</strong>( TSLA 0.13%) and <strong>Space Exploration Technologies</strong>( SPCX +0.69%), better known as SpaceX, that make them suitable for different types of investors and also challenge the notion that folding Tesla into SpaceX is a good idea.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 0.13%）和 <strong>太空探索技術公司</strong>（SPCX +0.69%），更廣為人知的是 SpaceX，在投資特徵上存在關鍵差異，這使得它們適合不同類型的投資者，並且挑戰了將特斯拉併入 SpaceX 的想法。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvcmVsYXhlZC1pbnZlc3Rvci13YXRjaGluZy1zdG9ja3MtYW5hbHlzdC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="An investor at a desk." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F873523%2Frelaxed-investor-watching-stocks-analyst-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Three key differences between Tesla and SpaceX</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉與 SpaceX 之間的三大關鍵差異</h2>
</div><p>The major factors to consider are as follows:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要考慮的主要因素如下：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Tesla's projects (electric vehicles, robotaxis, and Optimus robots) embody artificial intelligence (AI). At the same time, SpaceX is largely dependent on end demand for AI, not least for its xAI business and its orbital data center ambitions.</li>
<li>The scaling of Tesla's long-term recurring income drivers, namely robotaxis and Optimus are, despite the delays and previously over-optimistic assumptions articulated by Musk, much closer to near-term fruition than SpaceX's.</li>
<li>The two companies have vastly different medium-term capital expenditure requirements and cash flow profiles, with SpaceX requiring significantly more investment.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>特斯拉的項目（電動車、機器人出租車和 Optimus 機器人）體現了人工智能（AI）。與此同時，SpaceX 在很大程度上依賴於對 AI 的最終需求，尤其是其 xAI 業務和軌道數據中心的雄心。</li>
<li>儘管馬斯克曾表達過延遲和過於樂觀的假設，特斯拉的長期經常性收入驅動因素，即機器人出租車和 Optimus，實際上比 SpaceX 更接近於近期實現。</li>
<li>這兩家公司在中期資本支出需求和現金流特徵上有着巨大的不同，SpaceX 需要的投資顯著更多。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Putting these points together, it's clear that, while both are growth stocks and priced as such, Tesla is less risky than SpaceX and has a shorter time horizon before it starts scaling earnings and cash flow. That's not to argue that Tesla is necessarily the better stock, but rather to point out that they will suit different types of investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合這些觀點，很明顯，儘管兩者都是成長型股票並以此定價，但特斯拉的風險低於 SpaceX，並且在開始擴大收益和現金流之前的時間跨度更短。這並不是説特斯拉一定是更好的股票，而是指出它們適合不同類型的投資者。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展開</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Tesla Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FTSLA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
</div><p>Tesla</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(-0.13%) $-0.51</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-0.13%) $-0.51</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$381.10</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$381.10</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$1.4T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1.4 萬億</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$378.73 - $384.56</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$378.73 - $384.56</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>343.9K</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>343.9K</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>57.5M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>57.5M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>19.07%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>19.07%</p>
</div><h2>Capital expenditure requirements and cash flow</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>資本支出需求和現金流</h2>
</div><p>The chart below shows the Wall Street consensus on capital spending. It implies that SpaceX will put more into capital expenditures than it generates in revenue in 2026 and will still be at a whopping 40% of revenue in 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下圖顯示了華爾街對資本支出的共識。這意味着到 2026 年，SpaceX 的資本支出將超過其收入，並且到 2030 年仍將佔收入的 40%。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Tesla's relative capital spending is expected to decline as revenue grows and its phase of significant investment in securing its supply chain moderates. Tesla is investing heavily right now to build a lithium refinery and a lithium battery production plant, and is beginning to produce the Cybercab, Semi, and Optimus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，特斯拉的相對資本支出預計將隨着收入的增長而下降，其在 確保供應鏈的重大投資階段 將逐漸減弱。特斯拉目前正在大力投資建設鋰精煉廠和鋰電池生產廠，並開始生產 Cybercab、Semi 和 Optimus。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvc3BhY2V4LWFuZC10ZXNsYS1jYXBpdGFsLWV4cGVuZGl0dXJlcy1zaGFyZS1vZi1yZXZlbnVlLnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="SpaceX and Tesla capital expenditures as a share of revenue." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F873523%2Fspacex-and-tesla-capital-expenditures-share-of-revenue.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Data source: S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. Wall Street consensus. Chart by the author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence。華爾街共識。圖表由作者製作。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's catalysts are near-term</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的催化劑是近期的</h2>
</div><p>Investors can be forgiven for growing restless given the timing of Tesla's key initiatives (robotaxis/Cybercab and Optimus); the reality is that they are much closer to fruition than orbital data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到特斯拉的關鍵舉措（機器人出租車/Cybercab 和 Optimus）的時機，投資者可能會感到不安；現實是，它們比軌道數據中心更接近實現。</p>
</div><p>For example, Tesla is taking a very cautious approach to ramping the robotaxi rollout. On the last earnings call, Musk made it clear that &#34;it wouldn't be right for us to go to like very large scale unsupervised FSD when we know that there are software improvements in the pipeline that would improve safety.&#34; Those improvements are likely to come with v15 of its full self-driving (FSD) software due in late 2026 or early 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，特斯拉在推進機器人出租車的推出時採取了非常謹慎的態度。在上一次財報電話會議上，馬斯克明確表示：“在我們知道有軟件改進在路上可以提高安全性時，去進行大規模的無監督 FSD 是不對的。” 這些改進可能會在其全自動駕駛（FSD）軟件的 v15 版本中於 2026 年底或 2027 年初推出。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvNC10ZXNsYXMtaW4tYS1wYXJraW5nLWxvdC1hdC1hLWNoYXJnZXItc3RhdGlvbi0xLnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="Four Tesla EVs in a row. " original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F873523%2F4-teslas-in-a-parking-lot-at-a-charger-station-1.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><p>That's when investors can start to expect a significant and &#34;very large scale&#34; rollout. Still, it's a lot closer than SpaceX's orbital data centers. SpaceX expects to deploy them in 2028, but as clearly stated in the initial public offering (IPO) registration filing, &#34;the timeline for certain of our initiatives involving unproven or new innovations, including our goal of deploying 100 gigawatts of annual compute power to orbit ... may be difficult or impossible to determine.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那時，投資者可以開始期待一個顯著的 “非常大規模” 的推出。然而，這仍然比 SpaceX 的軌道數據中心要近得多。SpaceX 預計將在 2028 年部署它們，但在首次公開募股（IPO）註冊文件中明確指出，“涉及未經驗證或新創新的某些舉措的時間表，包括我們目標在軌道上部署 100 千兆瓦的年度計算能力……可能很難或不可能確定。”</p>
</div><h2>A different kind of AI company</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一種不同類型的 AI 公司</h2>
</div><p>As previously discussed in more detail, Tesla's solutions embody AI, making it one of the most exciting ways to play on the growth of AI capability. While SpaceX also benefits from these trends, it's much more dependent on the growth in AI applications. If demand slows, it could &#34;result in existing terrestrial data centers sufficiently meeting such demand, thereby reducing the need for our orbital AI compute infrastructure,&#34; according to SpaceX filings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，特斯拉的解決方案體現了 AI，使其成為參與 AI 能力增長的最激動人心的方式之一。雖然 SpaceX 也受益於這些趨勢，但它在很大程度上依賴於 AI 應用的增長。如果需求放緩，可能會 “導致現有的地面數據中心足以滿足這種需求，從而減少我們軌道 AI 計算基礎設施的需求，” 根據 SpaceX 的文件。</p>
</div><h2>Which stock is better?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>哪隻股票更好？</h2>
</div><p>Ultimately, the decision boils down to your risk profile, level of confidence in the growth of AI applications, and willingness to wait for each company's growth catalysts to come to fruition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，決定取決於你的風險偏好、對 AI 應用增長的信心程度，以及願意等待每家公司增長催化劑實現的程度。</p>
</div><p>Those differences in investment profiles also make a potential merger somewhat problematic, as Tesla investors will be swapping the likelihood of a ramp in recurring cash flows from robotaxis and Optimus for the prospect of those cash flows being reinvested to support long-term growth in SpaceX's existing businesses. That might not suit most Tesla investors unless the acquisition price is a significant premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些投資特徵的差異也使得潛在的合併變得有些問題，因為特斯拉的投資者將會用機器人出租車和 Optimus 帶來的經常性現金流的增長可能性，來交換這些現金流被再投資以支持 SpaceX 現有業務的長期增長的前景。除非收購價格是顯著的溢價，否則這可能不適合大多數特斯拉投資者。</p>
</div>

Should You Forget Tesla and Buy SpaceX Instead?

- 特斯拉與 SpaceX 在投資特徵上存在關鍵差異。
- 特斯拉的盈利驅動力較近，風險更低；而 SpaceX 則需更大投資。
- 兩者適合不同類型的投資者，合併存在挑戰。

你是否應該放棄特斯拉而選擇投資 SpaceX？