<p>在棒球比賽中，如果一名球員在上場時擊球成功的概率為 30%，他或她就被認為是一個傑出的天才。基於此，讓我們為美國的頂級貸款機構熱烈而持久地鼓掌。</p>
<p>他們值得歡呼，因為今年接受年度美聯儲（Fed）壓力測試的 32 家銀行和其他金融機構都以優異的成績通過了測試。繼續閲讀，瞭解哪些公司在美聯儲的嚴格審視下表現最佳，為什麼這些結果對我們的經濟如此利好，以及這將如何影響這些公司的股東。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2M4OGI4NmQ0MjU0ZTlkNThmZmViNzNlNjliMTg4ZTYyNjBlYzZhMGQtMjcwOXgxMTA2LmpwZz93PTI3MDkmaD0xMTA2JnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2709" height="1106" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2M4OGI4NmQ0MjU0ZTlkNThmZmViNzNlNjliMTg4ZTYyNjBlYzZhMGQtMjcwOXgxMTA2LmpwZz93PTI3MDkmaD0xMTA2JnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>超級壓力測試</h2>
<p>標題中的 “壓力” 有些輕描淡寫。美聯儲的檢查目的是確定國家最重要的銀行（以及我們將看到的與銀行相關的企業）在面對不利經濟情景時的應對能力。</p>
<p>這些假設情景中充滿了噩夢般的情節。今年，美聯儲的 “嚴重不利” 情景包括商業房地產價值崩潰 39%，而房價也不甘示弱，暴跌 30%。我們有時會擔心失業率以基點為單位的上升，那突然、劇烈地飆升至 10% 又如何？</p>
<p>華爾街也未能倖免。美聯儲想要模擬——可怕的是！——股價下跌 58%。如果這還不夠糟糕，他們還讓銀行經歷企業債券利差的嚴重擴大，以及恐慌指數飆升至 72%。在顯微鏡下的公司還必須 “忍受” 全球通縮情景，其中美元迅速而劇烈地升值。</p>
<h2>那麼，他們表現如何？</h2>
<p>這種承受經濟和金融衝擊的能力正是我們應該如此熱烈鼓掌的原因。這 32 家公司不僅 “生存” 了這些情景，而且表現出色。用技術術語來説，對於那些感興趣的人，每一家在最嚴峻的虛構情況下都保持在其最低普通股一級資本要求之上。</p>
<p>換句話説，根據美聯儲對測試的事後新聞稿，“大型銀行在應對嚴重衰退方面處於良好狀態，並能夠繼續向家庭和企業提供貸款。” 總的來説，他們有足夠的資本來吸收近 7080 億美元的損失——無論從哪個標準來看，這都是一個巨大的數字。</p>
<p>在最不利的災難組合下，所有貸款機構都保持了足夠的資本以有效運營。其中的贏家是經紀公司 <strong>嘉信理財</strong>（Charles Schwab）（SCHW +0.64%），其 “壓力比率”——股本資本與風險加權資產之比——超過 32%。考慮到被認為高且安全的範圍是 9% 到 12%，這尤其令人印象深刻。</p>
<p>三家在美國有重要存在的國際貸款機構緊隨其後。這些是 <strong>瑞銀集團</strong>（UBS）（UBS +1.88%）美洲（15.3%）、<strong>德意志銀行</strong>（Deutsche Bank）（DB +1.82%）美國（14.4%）和 <strong>多倫多道明銀行</strong>（Toronto-Dominion Bank）（TD +1.37%）的 TD 集團。至於我們國家的四大銀行，<strong>摩根大通</strong>（JPMorgan Chase）（JPM +2.91%）的得分為 12.6%，<strong>花旗集團</strong>（Citigroup）（C +2.70%）為 10.3%，<strong>美國銀行</strong>（Bank of America）（BAC +2.12%）得分為 9.9%，而 <strong>富國銀行</strong>（Wells Fargo）（WFC +2.25%）以 9.2% 墊底。</p>
<h2>期待一些股息增加</h2>
<p>對於喜歡深入瞭解銀行的人來説，還有許多其他指標（補充槓桿比率，任何人都可以嗎？）。畢竟，測試結果是相當全面的報告。</p>
<p>對我來説，結論是：儘管宏觀經濟出現波動，消費者和企業對價格上漲和潛在利率上升感到擔憂，但經濟仍在穩步前進，而這些非常健康的機構是其中的關鍵原因。他們在提供資本、提供信貸、建立存款基礎等方面做得很好。換句話説，做着所有優秀貸款機構應該做的事情。</p>
<p>對於投資者來説，這可能意味着在接下來的幾天裏，銀行股價至少會有所上漲。更重要的是（在我看來），美聯儲目前已凍結 “壓力資本緩衝” 要求，這決定了銀行資本配置措施的範圍。由於許多銀行在過去一年中顯著增加了資本基礎，他們有更多資金用於大幅增加股息和新的或擴展的股票回購計劃。事實上，就在測試結果在週四登上頭條後，他們中的幾家宣佈了兩位數的股息增長。</p>
<p>總之，銀行表現極為出色，投資者即將從中獲得豐厚的回報。準備好迎接吧！</p>

德意志銀行

瑞銀集團

嘉信理財

<p>所有 32 家銀行和金融機構均通過了美聯儲的年度壓力測試，顯示出在嚴重假設經濟情境下的韌性。嘉信理財以超過 32% 的壓力比率領先，其次是瑞銀美洲、德意志銀行美國和 TD 集團。結果表明，大型銀行在應對經濟衰退方面處於良好位置。因此，投資者可能會看到股價上漲以及顯著的股息增加或回購，因為銀行利用了多餘的資本緩衝</p>

<p>In baseball, if a player smacks a hit 30% of the time they come to the plate, he or she is considered to be an exceptional talent. Given that, let’s give a hearty, sustained round of applause to America’s top lenders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在棒球比賽中，如果一名球員在上場時擊球成功的概率為 30%，他或她就被認為是一個傑出的天才。基於此，讓我們為美國的頂級貸款機構熱烈而持久地鼓掌。</p>
</div><p>They deserve their hurrahs because each of the 32 banks and other financial institutions subjected to this year’s annual Federal Reserve (Fed) stress tests passed with the proverbial flying colors. Read on for which companies did the best under the Fed’s watchful eye, why the results are such good news for our economy, and how this will impact the shareholders of these companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他們值得歡呼，因為今年接受年度美聯儲（Fed）壓力測試的 32 家銀行和其他金融機構都以優異的成績通過了測試。繼續閲讀，瞭解哪些公司在美聯儲的嚴格審視下表現最佳，為什麼這些結果對我們的經濟如此利好，以及這將如何影響這些公司的股東。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2M4OGI4NmQ0MjU0ZTlkNThmZmViNzNlNjliMTg4ZTYyNjBlYzZhMGQtMjcwOXgxMTA2LmpwZz93PTI3MDkmaD0xMTA2JnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.content.foolcdn.com%2Fimages%2F1umn9qeh%2Fproduction%2Fc88b86d4254e9d58ffeb73e69b188e6260ec6a0d-2709x1106.jpg%3Fw%3D2709%26h%3D1106%26q%3D75%26auto%3Dformat&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Super stressed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>超級壓力測試</h2>
</div><p>The “stress” of the title is something of an understatement. The point of the Fed’s examination is to determine how effectively the nation’s most important banks (and, as we’ll see, bank-adjacent enterprises) would be able to cope with adverse economic scenarios.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標題中的 “壓力” 有些輕描淡寫。美聯儲的檢查目的是確定國家最重要的銀行（以及我們將看到的與銀行相關的企業）在面對不利經濟情景時的應對能力。</p>
</div><p>There’s plenty of nightmare fuel in these hypothetical situations. This year, the Fed’s “severely adverse” scenario included a 39% collapse in commercial property values and, not to be outdone, a 30% dive in home prices. We sometimes fret about upticks in the unemployment rate measured in basis points, so how about a sudden, vicious spike in the indicator to 10%?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些假設情景中充滿了噩夢般的情節。今年，美聯儲的 “嚴重不利” 情景包括商業房地產價值崩潰 39%，而房價也不甘示弱，暴跌 30%。我們有時會擔心失業率以基點為單位的上升，那突然、劇烈地飆升至 10% 又如何？</p>
</div><p>Wall Street isn’t spared, either. The Fed wanted to model — perish the thought! — a 58% drop in equity prices. If that wasn’t bad enough, they also put the banks through the paces of a severe widening of corporate bond spreads, and a fear index that climbed to 72%. The companies under the microscope also had to “endure” events such as a global deflationary scenario in which the U.S. dollar appreciated quickly and violently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街也未能倖免。美聯儲想要模擬——可怕的是！——股價下跌 58%。如果這還不夠糟糕，他們還讓銀行經歷企業債券利差的嚴重擴大，以及恐慌指數飆升至 72%。在顯微鏡下的公司還必須 “忍受” 全球通縮情景，其中美元迅速而劇烈地升值。</p>
</div><h2>So, how did they do?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>那麼，他們表現如何？</h2>
</div><p>This ability to take such economic and financial hits is why we should be applauding so vigorously. The 32 companies tested not only “survived” these scenarios, they aced them. In technical terms, for those so inclined, every one stayed above its minimum common equity tier 1 capital requirements even in the most dire fictional circumstances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種承受經濟和金融衝擊的能力正是我們應該如此熱烈鼓掌的原因。這 32 家公司不僅 “生存” 了這些情景，而且表現出色。用技術術語來説，對於那些感興趣的人，每一家在最嚴峻的虛構情況下都保持在其最低普通股一級資本要求之上。</p>
</div><p>Put in a more workmanlike way, per the Fed’s post-mortem press release on the tests, “large banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession and able to continue to lend to households and businesses.” All told, they have enough capital to absorb almost $708 billion in losses — a massive amount by any yardstick.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，根據美聯儲對測試的事後新聞稿，“大型銀行在應對嚴重衰退方面處於良好狀態，並能夠繼續向家庭和企業提供貸款。” 總的來説，他們有足夠的資本來吸收近 7080 億美元的損失——無論從哪個標準來看，這都是一個巨大的數字。</p>
</div><p>Under the most adverse combination of disasters, all lenders maintained sufficient capital to operate effectively. The winner among them was brokerage <strong>Charles Schwab</strong>(SCHW +0.64%), with a “stressed ratio” — equity capital divided by risk-weighted assets — over 32%. That’s especially impressive given that the range considered high and safe is 9% to 12%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最不利的災難組合下，所有貸款機構都保持了足夠的資本以有效運營。其中的贏家是經紀公司 <strong>嘉信理財</strong>（Charles Schwab）（SCHW +0.64%），其 “壓力比率”——股本資本與風險加權資產之比——超過 32%。考慮到被認為高且安全的範圍是 9% 到 12%，這尤其令人印象深刻。</p>
</div><p>Three international lenders with significant presence in the U.S. trailed Schwab. These were <strong>UBS</strong>(UBS +1.88%) Americas (15.3%), <strong>Deutsche Bank</strong>(DB +1.82%) USA (14.4%), and <strong>Toronto-Dominion Bank</strong>’s (TD +1.37%) TD Group. As for our country’s Big Four, <strong>JPMorgan Chase</strong>(JPM +2.91%) clocked a 12.6% score, <strong>Citigroup</strong>’s (C +2.70%) was 10.3%, <strong>Bank of America</strong>(BAC +2.12%) scored 9.9%, and <strong>Wells Fargo</strong>(WFC +2.25%) brought up the rear with 9.2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三家在美國有重要存在的國際貸款機構緊隨其後。這些是 <strong>瑞銀集團</strong>（UBS）（UBS +1.88%）美洲（15.3%）、<strong>德意志銀行</strong>（Deutsche Bank）（DB +1.82%）美國（14.4%）和 <strong>多倫多道明銀行</strong>（Toronto-Dominion Bank）（TD +1.37%）的 TD 集團。至於我們國家的四大銀行，<strong>摩根大通</strong>（JPMorgan Chase）（JPM +2.91%）的得分為 12.6%，<strong>花旗集團</strong>（Citigroup）（C +2.70%）為 10.3%，<strong>美國銀行</strong>（Bank of America）（BAC +2.12%）得分為 9.9%，而 <strong>富國銀行</strong>（Wells Fargo）（WFC +2.25%）以 9.2% 墊底。</p>
</div><h2>Let’s look forward to some dividend raises</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>期待一些股息增加</h2>
</div><p>There are plenty of other metrics for folks who like to get granular with their banks (supplementary leverage ratio, anyone?). The test results are fairly comprehensive report, after all.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於喜歡深入瞭解銀行的人來説，還有許多其他指標（補充槓桿比率，任何人都可以嗎？）。畢竟，測試結果是相當全面的報告。</p>
</div><p>The takeaway, for me anyway, is this: despite macroeconomic hiccups and consumer/business worries about rising prices and potentially higher interest rates, the economy is motoring along, and these very healthy institutions are a key reason why. They’re lending capital, they’re providing credit, they’re building deposit bases, etc. In other words, doing everything good lenders do.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對我來説，結論是：儘管宏觀經濟出現波動，消費者和企業對價格上漲和潛在利率上升感到擔憂，但經濟仍在穩步前進，而這些非常健康的機構是其中的關鍵原因。他們在提供資本、提供信貸、建立存款基礎等方面做得很好。換句話説，做着所有優秀貸款機構應該做的事情。</p>
</div><p>For investors, this will likely mean at least a bump in bank share prices over the next few days. More impactful (in my opinion), the Fed has, for now, frozen the &#34;stress capital buffer” requirements that determine banks’ scope for capital allocation measures. Since many have grown their capital bases significantly over the past year, they have more greenbacks for robust dividend raises and new or expanded share buyback programs. In fact, just after the test results hit the headlines on Thursday, several of them announced double-digit dividend hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於投資者來説，這可能意味着在接下來的幾天裏，銀行股價至少會有所上漲。更重要的是（在我看來），美聯儲目前已凍結 “壓力資本緩衝” 要求，這決定了銀行資本配置措施的範圍。由於許多銀行在過去一年中顯著增加了資本基礎，他們有更多資金用於大幅增加股息和新的或擴展的股票回購計劃。事實上，就在測試結果在週四登上頭條後，他們中的幾家宣佈了兩位數的股息增長。</p>
</div><p>In short, the banks did exceedingly well, and investors are about to reap some nice rewards from this. Batter up!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總之，銀行表現極為出色，投資者即將從中獲得豐厚的回報。準備好迎接吧！</p>
</div>

All Banks Crushed the Fed's Stress Tests This Year, and Some Truly Excelled

- 今年的聯儲壓力測試中，32 家大型銀行全部順利通過。  
- 這些銀行在經濟惡化情境下保持充足資本，吸納近 7080 億美元損失。  
- 投資者可能會迎來股價上漲和豐厚的分紅。

Motley Fool

Toronto Dominion Bank

摩根大通

花旗

美國銀行

富國銀行

SCHWAB(CHARLES)CORP 5.95% DEP SHS REP 1/40 NON CUM PERP PF D

SCHWAB(CHARLES)CORP 4.450% DEP SHS REP 1/40TH N-CUM PFD SERJ

Deutsche Bank AG Subscription Rights

Deutsche Postbank AG

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.20% DEP SHS REPSTG 1/400TH PFD SER MM

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 6%NON CUM DEP SHS REP 1/400TH PFD SER EE

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. DEP REP 1/400TH (5.75% NON CUM PFD DD)

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.625% DEP SH RE 1/400TH INT NO CU PF LL

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.55% DEP SHS REPSTG 1/400TH PFD SER JJ

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.75 DEP SHS REP 1/400 NCUM PFD SR GG

CITIGROUP INC 6.250 NON CUM SER II PFD WI

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NON CUM PFD QQ

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '5'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 7.25% NON-CUM PERP CONV PFD SER L

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.875%NON CUM DEP SHS REP1/1000TH SER HH

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '2'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5% DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD LL

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHARES REP 1/1000TH PERP PFD SER 'E'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION INCOME CAPITAL OBLIG NTS DUE 15/12/2066

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.375% DP SH RP 1/1000TH IN NON CU PF NN

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SH REP 1/1200TH PRF SER 1 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.375%DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM SR KK

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 6%NON CUM DEP SHS EACH REP 1/1000 SER GG

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200 PFD SER 4 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD SER SS

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.125%DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER PP USD25

Bank of America Corp

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NCUM PFD CL A DD

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY 7.5% PERP CONV PRF CLS 'A' SERIES 'L'

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 INT PER PFD SER Y A

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NCUM PFD CL A CC

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY 4.75% DEP SHS 1/1000 NCUM PFD CL A SR Z

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT PFD SR AA (CLA)

今年所有銀行都順利通過了美聯儲的壓力測試，其中一些銀行的表現尤為突出