<p>精明的股市投資者知道，沒有什麼能像通貨膨脹一樣扼殺牛市。</p>
<p>在 2022 年，商品價格飆升使疫情期間的牛市降温，並迫使美聯儲提高利率，導致股票在那一年大幅下跌。同樣，1970 年代因通貨膨脹而被廣泛認為是一個失落的十年，部分原因是油價上漲。</p>
<p>投資者正面臨另一個能源危機，這源於霍爾木茲海峽的對峙，再次推高了價格。個人消費支出（PCE）報告，即美聯儲首選的通貨膨脹指標，顯示價格以三年來最快的速度上漲。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uLzcxNGIzOWE3NjRiZTA0MWU5NTJkYjRlN2Q1OGNjNTI5MzYyYTU3NzUtMTIwMHg4MDAuanBnP3c9MTIwMCZoPTgwMCZxPTc1JmF1dG89Zm9ybWF0Jnc9Mzg0MA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uLzcxNGIzOWE3NjRiZTA0MWU5NTJkYjRlN2Q1OGNjNTI5MzYyYTU3NzUtMTIwMHg4MDAuanBnP3c9MTIwMCZoPTgwMCZxPTc1JmF1dG89Zm9ybWF0Jnc9Mzg0MA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>PCE 通貨膨脹報告説了什麼？</h2>
<p>根據 PCE 價格指數，通貨膨脹在 5 月份上漲了 0.4%，與 4 月份持平，超出預期的 0.5% 增長。核心通貨膨脹（不包括食品和能源）上漲了 0.3%，而 4 月份為 0.2%。按年計算，PCE 指數上漲了 4.1%，高於 4 月份的 3.8%，而核心 PCE 上漲了 3.4%。</p>
<p>自伊朗戰爭開始以來，通貨膨脹率顯然發生了變化，儘管核心通貨膨脹因不包括能源價格而增長較慢。</p>
<p>投資者對這些數字不以為然，因為 <strong>標普 500</strong> 在今天中午時分幾乎持平。市場似乎更關注 <strong>美光</strong> 昨晚發佈的另一份超預期的財報後，內存短缺的影響，而 <strong>蘋果</strong> 股票在宣佈漲價以轉嫁更高的內存和存儲成本後下跌。</p>
<h2>這對投資者意味着什麼</h2>
<p>投資者通常關注 PCE，因為美聯儲會監測它以做出利率決策。</p>
<p>在本月早些時候的 “點陣圖” 預測中，美聯儲表示現在預計今年將加息一次，而不是 3 月份預測的降息一次。它還表示預計 PCE 通貨膨脹將在年底達到 3.3%。</p>
<p>目前，通貨膨脹和利率走向都存在很大的不確定性。</p>
<p>油價作為通貨膨脹的主要驅動因素，自特朗普總統本月早些時候宣佈結束戰爭以來開始下跌，儘管霍爾木茲海峽的狀況仍不確定。布倫特原油價格現在處於戰爭爆發以來的最低點，交易價格約為每桶 72 美元，這表明交易員對戰爭即將結束和海峽將重新開放充滿信心。</p>
<p>如果這是真的，那麼這也意味着通貨膨脹的擔憂比通常情況下要小，因為根據克利夫蘭聯儲的預測，預計 6 月份通貨膨脹將適度下降。</p>
<p>通貨膨脹往往使加息的可能性增加，但由於新任美聯儲主席凱文·沃什對預測的需求有所降低，並認為美聯儲應該少説話，因此加息也存在額外的不確定性。沃什甚至拒絕給出他自己對點陣圖的預測。</p>
<p>總體而言，通貨膨脹值得投資者關注，但考慮到油價的下降和美聯儲缺乏明確性，它的影響力比通常情況下要小。不過，如果中東局勢發生變化，油價再次上漲，不要驚訝未來的 PCE 報告會影響市場。</p>

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<p>最新的個人消費支出（PCE）通脹報告顯示，價格以三年來最快的速度上漲，年度指數上升至 4.1%。儘管出現這一激增，投資者仍然大致保持冷靜，標普 500 指數保持平穩，反而將注意力集中在科技公司財報和內存短缺上。儘管由於地緣政治發展，油價有所下降，但關於美聯儲在新領導下未來利率決策的不確定性依然存在</p>

<p>Savvy stock market investors know that nothing can kill a bull market like inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>精明的股市投資者知道，沒有什麼能像通貨膨脹一樣扼殺牛市。</p>
</div><p>In 2022, soaring prices for goods cooled off the pandemic-era bull market, and pushed the Fed to jack up interest rates, sending stocks swooning that year. Similarly, the 1970s are widely considered a lost decade due to inflation, in part driven by rising oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 年，商品價格飆升使疫情期間的牛市降温，並迫使美聯儲提高利率，導致股票在那一年大幅下跌。同樣，1970 年代因通貨膨脹而被廣泛認為是一個失落的十年，部分原因是油價上漲。</p>
</div><p>Investors are facing another energy crisis stemming from the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, which is driving up prices again. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed prices rising at their fastest pace in three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者正面臨另一個能源危機，這源於霍爾木茲海峽的對峙，再次推高了價格。個人消費支出（PCE）報告，即美聯儲首選的通貨膨脹指標，顯示價格以三年來最快的速度上漲。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uLzcxNGIzOWE3NjRiZTA0MWU5NTJkYjRlN2Q1OGNjNTI5MzYyYTU3NzUtMTIwMHg4MDAuanBnP3c9MTIwMCZoPTgwMCZxPTc1JmF1dG89Zm9ybWF0Jnc9Mzg0MA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.content.foolcdn.com%2Fimages%2F1umn9qeh%2Fproduction%2F714b39a764be041e952db4e7d58cc529362a5775-1200x800.jpg%3Fw%3D1200%26h%3D800%26q%3D75%26auto%3Dformat&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What did the PCE inflation report say?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>PCE 通貨膨脹報告説了什麼？</h2>
</div><p>Inflation, as measured by the PCE price index, rose 0.4% in May, matching April and beating expectations of 0.5% growth. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.3%, compared to 0.2% in April. On an annual basis, the PCE index was up 4.1%, increasing from 3.8% in April, while core PCE rose 3.4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 PCE 價格指數，通貨膨脹在 5 月份上漲了 0.4%，與 4 月份持平，超出預期的 0.5% 增長。核心通貨膨脹（不包括食品和能源）上漲了 0.3%，而 4 月份為 0.2%。按年計算，PCE 指數上漲了 4.1%，高於 4 月份的 3.8%，而核心 PCE 上漲了 3.4%。</p>
</div><p>The inflation rate has clearly inflected since the war in Iran began, though core inflation has grown less slowly since it excludes energy prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自伊朗戰爭開始以來，通貨膨脹率顯然發生了變化，儘管核心通貨膨脹因不包括能源價格而增長較慢。</p>
</div><p>Investors shrugged off the numbers as the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> was near flat around noon today. The market seemed focused instead on the impact of the memory shortage after <strong>Micron</strong> delivered another blowout earnings report last night, and <strong>Apple</strong> stock was down after announcing price hikes to pass on higher memory and storage costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者對這些數字不以為然，因為 <strong>標普 500</strong> 在今天中午時分幾乎持平。市場似乎更關注 <strong>美光</strong> 昨晚發佈的另一份超預期的財報後，內存短缺的影響，而 <strong>蘋果</strong> 股票在宣佈漲價以轉嫁更高的內存和存儲成本後下跌。</p>
</div><h2>What it means for investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這對投資者意味着什麼</h2>
</div><p>Investors tend to keep an eye on the PCE because the Federal Reserve monitors it to make interest rate decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者通常關注 PCE，因為美聯儲會監測它以做出利率決策。</p>
</div><p>In its “dot plot” forecast earlier this month, the Fed said it now expects one rate hike this year, up from a forecast in March of one rate cut. It also said that it expected PCE inflation to end the year at 3.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在本月早些時候的 “點陣圖” 預測中，美聯儲表示現在預計今年將加息一次，而不是 3 月份預測的降息一次。它還表示預計 PCE 通貨膨脹將在年底達到 3.3%。</p>
</div><p>Right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty in both inflation and where interest rates are headed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，通貨膨脹和利率走向都存在很大的不確定性。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices, which have been the primary driver of inflation, have started to come down since President Trump announced an end to the war earlier this month, though the status of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. Brent crude prices are now at their lowest since the war broke out, trading around $72 a barrel, suggesting traders are confident the war is winding down, and the Strait will reopen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油價作為通貨膨脹的主要驅動因素，自特朗普總統本月早些時候宣佈結束戰爭以來開始下跌，儘管霍爾木茲海峽的狀況仍不確定。布倫特原油價格現在處於戰爭爆發以來的最低點，交易價格約為每桶 72 美元，這表明交易員對戰爭即將結束和海峽將重新開放充滿信心。</p>
</div><p>If that’s true, it also means that inflation is less of a concern than it normally would be, since it’s expected to come down modestly in June, according to forecast from the Cleveland Fed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果這是真的，那麼這也意味着通貨膨脹的擔憂比通常情況下要小，因為根據克利夫蘭聯儲的預測，預計 6 月份通貨膨脹將適度下降。</p>
</div><p>Inflation tends to make an interest rate hike more likely, but there’s also additional uncertainty around rate hikes due to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who has tamped down the need for forecasts and believes the Fed should say less about what it thinks. Warsh even refused to give his own forecast for the dot plot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通貨膨脹往往使加息的可能性增加，但由於新任美聯儲主席凱文·沃什對預測的需求有所降低，並認為美聯儲應該少説話，因此加息也存在額外的不確定性。沃什甚至拒絕給出他自己對點陣圖的預測。</p>
</div><p>Overall, inflation deserves monitoring from investors, but given the decline in oil prices and the Fed’s lack of clarity, it’s less of a factor than it normally would be. Still, if the situation in the Middle East changes and oil prices start rising again, don’t be surprised if future PCE reports swing markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，通貨膨脹值得投資者關注，但考慮到油價的下降和美聯儲缺乏明確性，它的影響力比通常情況下要小。不過，如果中東局勢發生變化，油價再次上漲，不要驚訝未來的 PCE 報告會影響市場。</p>
</div>

PCE Inflation Reached Its Highest Level in 3 Years. Here’s What Investors Need to Know.

- 2022 年，通貨膨脹導致美聯儲加息，打擊股市。
- PCE 報告顯示，5 月通脹同比上漲 4.1%，核心通脹上漲 3.4%。
- 油價回落令通脹預期減弱，但中東局勢仍需關注。

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PCE 通脹率達到三年來的最高水平。以下是投資者需要知道的信息