<p>作者：Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<p>重大考驗可能在 2027 年到來</p>
<p>新任美聯儲主席凱文·沃什通過對通脹的強硬表態，幫助降低國債收益率。</p>
<p>在新任主席凱文·沃什的領導下，美聯儲對恢復 2% 的通脹目標顯得非常認真。</p>
<p>這種謹慎的語氣似乎足以在目前緩解 30 萬億美元國債市場的緊張情緒。儘管 5 月份的通脹數據顯示當前通脹率超過美聯儲目標的兩倍。</p>
<p>“他的強硬表態有所幫助，” GlobalData TS Lombard 的首席經濟學家史蒂文·布利茨週五表示。沃什暗示他不會為了取悦白宮而降息，也不會讓通脹失控，這有助於拉低國債收益率，布利茨説。“這差別很大。”</p>
<p>美聯儲偏好的通脹指標週四達到了 4.1%，是自 2023 年 4 月以來的最高水平。這與兩週前的消費者價格指數的讀數相近。</p>
<p>利率市場對這一讀數沒有比預期更糟的情況感到些許安慰，Natixis Investment Managers Solutions 的投資組合策略師加雷特·梅爾森表示。隨着油價回到伊朗戰爭開始前的水平，他表示，市場對通脹可能見頂感到樂觀。</p>
<p>儘管伊朗在霍爾木茲海峽襲擊了一艘船，突顯了停火的脆弱性，但美國和全球的油價（CL00）（BRN00）週五接近每桶 70 美元。</p>
<p>相關：一個拒絕 OPEC 控制的世界可能會迎來每桶低於 50 美元的油價</p>
<p>自沃什在 6 月首次以美聯儲主席身份召開新聞發佈會以來，2026 年加息的可能性上升。他提到市場在指導利率、通脹和經濟走向方面應有更大的發言權。</p>
<p>畢竟，自美聯儲在 2024 年 9 月開始降息以來，10 年期國債收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 一直在上升，而不是下降，如下圖所示。</p>
<p>10 年期國債收益率對家庭來説非常重要，因為它是新 30 年期抵押貸款的起點。它也支撐着企業和經濟的融資。週五收益率降至 4.38%，為 5 月底以來的最低水平。</p>
<p>財政部一直控制長期政府債券的發行，以控制供應和成本，因為它借款以資助鉅額的美國赤字。美聯儲或財政部失去債券市場信心將是危險的。</p>
<p>與此同時，家庭在今年大幅消耗儲蓄的同時繼續消費。股票市場的牛市 SPX 幫助了擁有資產的家庭，儘管不斷上升的通脹侵蝕了工資。</p>
<p>根據布利茨的説法，沃什的反通脹言論本週在債券市場中消除了部分通脹溢價。“他在一開始就贏得了公關戰，” 他説。這為未來幾個月讓較低的油價在通脹數據中逐漸顯現爭取了一些時間，但這並不保證鬥爭已經結束。</p>
<p>政策敏感的 2 年期國債收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD02Y 週五降至 4.09%。但這仍遠高於美聯儲政策利率的上限 3.75%。較高的國債收益率與美聯儲 6 月的 “點陣圖” 相對應，後者也指向今年的加息。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，沃什拒絕提供自己的點陣圖，表示他不喜歡向公眾傳達這樣的指導。儘管白宮本週表示支持沃什採取獨立的方法來管理通脹和經濟，但此前曾多次催促沃什的前任傑羅姆·鮑威爾降息。</p>
<p>“我認為凱文·沃什不想在他領導的前六個月內就負責加息，” 富國銀行投資研究所全球固定收益策略負責人布萊恩·瑞林説。“但如果他真的致力於 2% 的通脹，而經濟仍然強勁，他可能會被逼入絕境。”</p>
<p>亞特蘭大聯儲週五的追蹤數據顯示，加息的概率為 67%，雖然低於近期高點，但較兩個月前的 31% 有所上升。這反映了中央銀行政策範圍上調 25 個基點的概率。</p>
<p>僅僅是加息的威脅可能有助於在今年年底之前抑制收益率。但如果經濟因人工智能支出繁榮而強勁增長，通脹上升，可能在 2027 年需要的不僅僅是言辭。</p>
<p>“到明年，” 布利茨説，“除非股市崩盤，否則他們將會加息。”</p>
<p>週五股市上漲，但標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克綜合指數 COMP 都面臨周度虧損，而道瓊斯指數 DJIA 上漲 0.8%，根據 FactSet 的數據。</p>
<p>現在閲讀：第一季度 GDP 大幅提升，但這並不是真正的好消息</p>
<p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 獨立於道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》發佈。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
<p>06-26-26 1339ET</p>

<p>美聯儲主席凱文·沃什對通脹的強硬立場正在幫助降低國債收益率，儘管 5 月份的通脹數據表明通脹率為 4.1%，遠高於 2% 的目標。市場對沃什致力於價格穩定的承諾反應積極，10 年期國債收益率降至 4.38%。儘管油價已經穩定，減輕了一些通脹壓力，但由於經濟強勁和持續的通脹風險，未來加息的可能性仍然很大</p>

<p>By Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Joy Wiltermuth</p>
</div><p>The big test might come in 2027</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重大考驗可能在 2027 年到來</p>
</div><p>Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve chair, is helping coax Treasury yields lower by talking tough on inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新任美聯儲主席凱文·沃什通過對通脹的強硬表態，幫助降低國債收益率。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve under its new chair, Kevin Warsh, sounds serious about getting back to 2% inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新任主席凱文·沃什的領導下，美聯儲對恢復 2% 的通脹目標顯得非常認真。</p>
</div><p>The guarded tone seems to be enough - for now - to ease nerves in the $30 trillion Treasury market. This comes despite inflation data for May showing the current rate is more than double the Fed's target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種謹慎的語氣似乎足以在目前緩解 30 萬億美元國債市場的緊張情緒。儘管 5 月份的通脹數據顯示當前通脹率超過美聯儲目標的兩倍。</p>
</div><p>&#34;His tough talk helps,&#34; Steven Blitz, chief economist at GlobalData TS Lombard, said on Friday. Warsh signaled that he won't cut rates to please the White House or let inflation fly, which is helping pull Treasury yields lower, Blitz said. &#34;That makes a big difference.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“他的強硬表態有所幫助，” GlobalData TS Lombard 的首席經濟學家史蒂文·布利茨週五表示。沃什暗示他不會為了取悦白宮而降息，也不會讓通脹失控，這有助於拉低國債收益率，布利茨説。“這差別很大。”</p>
</div><p>The Fed's preferred inflation gauge reached 4.1% on Thursday, the highest reading since April 2023. That's in the same ballpark as the reading of the consumer-price index two weeks ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲偏好的通脹指標週四達到了 4.1%，是自 2023 年 4 月以來的最高水平。這與兩週前的消費者價格指數的讀數相近。</p>
</div><p>The rates market took some solace in that reading not coming in any worse than feared, said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist with Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. With oil prices back near where they were before the start of the Iran war, there's optimism that inflation may be peaking, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率市場對這一讀數沒有比預期更糟的情況感到些許安慰，Natixis Investment Managers Solutions 的投資組合策略師加雷特·梅爾森表示。隨着油價回到伊朗戰爭開始前的水平，他表示，市場對通脹可能見頂感到樂觀。</p>
</div><p>U.S. and global oil (CL00) (BRN00) prices were down close to $70 a barrel on Friday, despite an Iranian attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz that underscored the fragile nature of the cease-fire.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管伊朗在霍爾木茲海峽襲擊了一艘船，突顯了停火的脆弱性，但美國和全球的油價（CL00）（BRN00）週五接近每桶 70 美元。</p>
</div><p>Related: A world rejecting OPEC controls could usher in oil below $50 a barrel</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相關：一個拒絕 OPEC 控制的世界可能會迎來每桶低於 50 美元的油價</p>
</div><p>Since Warsh's first press conference as Fed chair in June, the odds of a rate hike in 2026 have climbed. He spoke of markets having a bigger voice in guiding the path of rates, inflation and the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自沃什在 6 月首次以美聯儲主席身份召開新聞發佈會以來，2026 年加息的可能性上升。他提到市場在指導利率、通脹和經濟走向方面應有更大的發言權。</p>
</div><p>After all, 10-year Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y have pushed higher, not lower, since the Fed started cutting short-term rates in September 2024, as the below chart shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>畢竟，自美聯儲在 2024 年 9 月開始降息以來，10 年期國債收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 一直在上升，而不是下降，如下圖所示。</p>
</div><p>The 10-year Treasury yield is important to households because it's a starting point for new 30-year mortgage loans. It also underpins financing for businesses and the economy. It dipped to 4.38% on Friday, its lowest since late May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期國債收益率對家庭來説非常重要，因為它是新 30 年期抵押貸款的起點。它也支撐着企業和經濟的融資。週五收益率降至 4.38%，為 5 月底以來的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>The Treasury Department has kept a lid on issuing longer-duration government bonds to control supply and costs as it borrows to fund the large U.S. deficit. It would be dangerous for the Fed or the Treasury Department to lose the confidence of the bond market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>財政部一直控制長期政府債券的發行，以控制供應和成本，因為它借款以資助鉅額的美國赤字。美聯儲或財政部失去債券市場信心將是危險的。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, households have dramatically depleted their savings this year while continuing to spend. The bull market in stocks SPX has helped families who own assets, even as rising inflation has eroded wages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，家庭在今年大幅消耗儲蓄的同時繼續消費。股票市場的牛市 SPX 幫助了擁有資產的家庭，儘管不斷上升的通脹侵蝕了工資。</p>
</div><p>Warsh's anti-inflation rhetoric took some of the inflation premium out of the bond market this week, according to Blitz. &#34;He won the PR battle out of the gate,&#34; he said. That buys some time to let lower oil prices filter through inflation data in the coming months, he said, but it doesn't guarantee the fight is over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據布利茨的説法，沃什的反通脹言論本週在債券市場中消除了部分通脹溢價。“他在一開始就贏得了公關戰，” 他説。這為未來幾個月讓較低的油價在通脹數據中逐漸顯現爭取了一些時間，但這並不保證鬥爭已經結束。</p>
</div><p>The yield on the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y fell to 4.09% Friday. But that's still well above the Fed's 3.75% upper limit for its policy rate. A higher Treasury yield corresponds with the Fed's June &#34;dot plot,&#34; which also pointed to hikes this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策敏感的 2 年期國債收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD02Y 週五降至 4.09%。但這仍遠高於美聯儲政策利率的上限 3.75%。較高的國債收益率與美聯儲 6 月的 “點陣圖” 相對應，後者也指向今年的加息。</p>
</div><p>Notably, Warsh declined to offer his own dots, saying he is not a fan of telegraphing such guidance to the public. The White House this week signaled support for Warsh taking an independent approach to managing inflation and the economy, despite having repeatedly badgered Warsh's predecessor, Jerome Powell, to cut rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，沃什拒絕提供自己的點陣圖，表示他不喜歡向公眾傳達這樣的指導。儘管白宮本週表示支持沃什採取獨立的方法來管理通脹和經濟，但此前曾多次催促沃什的前任傑羅姆·鮑威爾降息。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I don't think Kevin Warsh wants to come in and within his first six months of leadership be responsible for a rate hike,&#34; said Brian Rehling, head of global fixed-income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. &#34;But if he's truly committed to 2% [inflation] and the economy remains robust, he may be backed into a corner.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我認為凱文·沃什不想在他領導的前六個月內就負責加息，” 富國銀行投資研究所全球固定收益策略負責人布萊恩·瑞林説。“但如果他真的致力於 2% 的通脹，而經濟仍然強勁，他可能會被逼入絕境。”</p>
</div><p>The Atlanta Fed's tracker on Friday put the probability of a rate hike at 67%, off recent highs but up from 31% two months ago. That reflects the probability of the central bank's policy range moving up by 25 basis points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞特蘭大聯儲週五的追蹤數據顯示，加息的概率為 67%，雖然低於近期高點，但較兩個月前的 31% 有所上升。這反映了中央銀行政策範圍上調 25 個基點的概率。</p>
</div><p>Just the threat of rate hikes might help keep a lid on yields through the end of this year. But a stronger economy, fed by the artificial-intelligence spending boom, and an uptick in inflation could require more than talk in 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>僅僅是加息的威脅可能有助於在今年年底之前抑制收益率。但如果經濟因人工智能支出繁榮而強勁增長，通脹上升，可能在 2027 年需要的不僅僅是言辭。</p>
</div><p>&#34;By next year,&#34; Blitz said, &#34;they're going to be hiking&#34; unless the equity market crashes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“到明年，” 布利茨説，“除非股市崩盤，否則他們將會加息。”</p>
</div><p>Stocks were higher Friday, but both the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq composite COMP were set for weekly losses, while the Dow DJIA was up 0.8%, according to FactSet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五股市上漲，但標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克綜合指數 COMP 都面臨周度虧損，而道瓊斯指數 DJIA 上漲 0.8%，根據 FactSet 的數據。</p>
</div><p>Now read: First-quarter GDP gets big boost, but it's not really great news</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在閲讀：第一季度 GDP 大幅提升，但這並不是真正的好消息</p>
</div><p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 獨立於道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》發佈。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>06-26-26 1339ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>06-26-26 1339ET</p>
</div>

Bond yields are falling as inflation pops. The Fed's tough talk under Warsh is helping.

Dow Jones

標普 500 指數

富國銀行

納斯達克綜合指數

道瓊斯指數

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NCUM PFD CL A DD

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY 7.5% PERP CONV PRF CLS 'A' SERIES 'L'

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 INT PER PFD SER Y A

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NCUM PFD CL A CC

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY 4.75% DEP SHS 1/1000 NCUM PFD CL A SR Z

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT PFD SR AA (CLA)

隨着通貨膨脹的上升，債券收益率正在下降。在沃什的領導下，美聯儲的強硬言論正在產生效果