<p>當一位新任首席執行官接管公司時，他們有時會嘗試立即做出高影響力的聲明，比如埃隆·馬斯克在 2022 年將一個瓷水槽帶入推特總部併發推文：“進入推特總部——讓這一點深入人心！”</p>
<p>雖然新任美聯儲主席凱文·沃什的首次舉動沒有馬斯克那麼引人注目，但他在第一次聯邦公開市場委員會會議上確實引起了很大反響。他毫不掩飾自己對 “照常營業” 並不感興趣的態度。相反，他明確表示了要對抗通貨膨脹的意圖。</p>
<p>以下是沃什所説的話，以及這可能對華爾街造成的麻煩。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUyNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQyMTQ1MzU4Ny0xMjAweDc2OS00NWJhNDQ0LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUyNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQyMTQ1MzU4Ny0xMjAweDc2OS00NWJhNDQ0LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>超出範圍</h2>
<p>十六年前，美聯儲正式將其長期通脹目標設定為每年温和的 2%。這個數字自 1996 年以來一直是非正式的，但直到 2012 年才公開。自那次公告後的近十年裏，美聯儲基本上將通脹保持在 2% 的目標以下。</p>
<p>不幸的是，近年來情況並非如此。根據消費者價格指數（CPI）衡量的通脹率，自 2021 年 2 月以來就沒有低於 2%，那時正值 COVID-19 疫情的高峰期。2022 年 6 月，通脹率達到了 9% 的峯值，然後急劇下降。自 2023 年 7 月以來，通脹率一直徘徊在 2.3% 到 3.8% 之間。</p>
<p>直到上個月，通脹率飆升至 4.2%，是 18 個月以來的最高水平。大問題是新任美聯儲主席凱文·沃什將對此採取什麼措施。</p>
<h2>釘子落下</h2>
<p>美聯儲遏制通脹的主要工具是提高基準聯邦基金利率，目前該利率在 3.5% 到 3.75% 之間。沃什的批評者擔心，他會屈從於唐納德·特朗普總統明確希望美聯儲降低利率以刺激經濟增長的願望，儘管這可能會帶來更高的通脹風險。</p>
<p>但沃什明確表示他沒有意圖這樣做。“委員會將實現價格穩定，” FOMC 在上週的一份一致聲明中表示。這似乎保證了在年底之前至少會有一次加息，但 <strong>美國銀行</strong> 認為這足夠明確，暗示在 2027 年之前可能會有_三次_加息。市場對此並不太喜歡：<strong>標普 500 指數</strong> 在消息公佈後下跌了 1.2%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUyNjcvNTUzNDE2NDA1NDRfNWM0OGQ5MDdkY19iLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUyNjcvNTUzNDE2NDA1NDRfNWM0OGQ5MDdkY19iLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>沃什主席在 2026 年 6 月 17 日的 FOMC 新聞發佈會上回答記者提問。圖片來源：美聯儲官方照片。</p>
<p>美聯儲在 2023 年 8 月至 2024 年 8 月期間將利率提高至 5.3%，但通脹仍頑固地高於美聯儲的 2% 目標。如果沃什認真想要將通脹降回 2%——而他顯然是認真的——美聯儲可能需要將利率推得更高。</p>
<p>較高的利率往往有利於銀行和保險公司，因為它們可以對貸款收取更高的費用。但成長型股票，尤其是那些依賴債務融資擴張的小型股票，可能會在借貸成本上升的情況下難以保持強勁增長。同樣，承諾進行大規模人工智能資本支出的公司可能會推遲這些項目，這可能導致它們的股票——以及人工智能基礎設施提供商的股票——出現下滑。</p>
<p>投資者在未來需要確保他們的投資組合保持平衡，如果高增長股票在他們的投資組合中佔據了過大的比例，考慮進行再平衡可能是明智的。</p>

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<p>新任美聯儲主席凱文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）發出了鷹派信號，以應對上個月達到 4.2% 的通脹上升。聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）一致承諾維持價格穩定，這暗示可能會加息，令市場感到不安，導致標普 500 指數下跌 1.2%。更高的利率可能有利於銀行，但對成長型股票和人工智能資本項目造成傷害，促使投資者重新調整投資組合</p>

<p>When a new CEO takes the reins at a company, they sometimes try to make an immediate high-impact statement, like Elon Musk carrying a porcelain sink into Twitter's headquarters in 2022 and tweeting, &#34;Entering Twitter HQ-let that sink in!&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當一位新任首席執行官接管公司時，他們有時會嘗試立即做出高影響力的聲明，比如埃隆·馬斯克在 2022 年將一個瓷水槽帶入推特總部併發推文：“進入推特總部——讓這一點深入人心！”</p>
</div><p>And while new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first move wasn't quite as flashy as Musk's, he certainly made a big splash at his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting. He left no doubt that he wasn't interested in &#34;business as usual.&#34; Instead, he clearly signaled his intention to bring down the hammer on inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然新任美聯儲主席凱文·沃什的首次舉動沒有馬斯克那麼引人注目，但他在第一次聯邦公開市場委員會會議上確實引起了很大反響。他毫不掩飾自己對 “照常營業” 並不感興趣的態度。相反，他明確表示了要對抗通貨膨脹的意圖。</p>
</div><p>Here's what Warsh said and why it could spell trouble for Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是沃什所説的話，以及這可能對華爾街造成的麻煩。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUyNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQyMTQ1MzU4Ny0xMjAweDc2OS00NWJhNDQ0LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F875267%2Fgettyimages-1421453587-1200x769-45ba444.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Outside the range</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>超出範圍</h2>
</div><p>Sixteen years ago, the Fed officially established its long-term inflation target as a modest 2% per year. That number had been unofficial since 1996, but it wasn't made public until 2012. For almost a decade after that announcement, the Fed largely kept inflation below that 2% target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十六年前，美聯儲正式將其長期通脹目標設定為每年温和的 2%。這個數字自 1996 年以來一直是非正式的，但直到 2012 年才公開。自那次公告後的近十年裏，美聯儲基本上將通脹保持在 2% 的目標以下。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case in recent years. The inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), hasn't been below 2% since February 2021, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. In June 2022, it peaked at 9% before dropping sharply. It's been hovering between 2.3% and 3.8% since July 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，近年來情況並非如此。根據消費者價格指數（CPI）衡量的通脹率，自 2021 年 2 月以來就沒有低於 2%，那時正值 COVID-19 疫情的高峰期。2022 年 6 月，通脹率達到了 9% 的峯值，然後急劇下降。自 2023 年 7 月以來，通脹率一直徘徊在 2.3% 到 3.8% 之間。</p>
</div><p>That is, until last month, when it shot up to 4.2%, the highest level in 18 months. And the big question was what the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, was going to do about it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>直到上個月，通脹率飆升至 4.2%，是 18 個月以來的最高水平。大問題是新任美聯儲主席凱文·沃什將對此採取什麼措施。</p>
</div><h2>The hammer is dropping</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>釘子落下</h2>
</div><p>The Fed's primary tool for curbing inflation is raising its benchmark federal funds interest rate, which currently sits between 3.5% and 3.75%. Warsh's critics worried that he would acquiesce to President Donald Trump's clear desire for the Fed to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, despite the risk of higher inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲遏制通脹的主要工具是提高基準聯邦基金利率，目前該利率在 3.5% 到 3.75% 之間。沃什的批評者擔心，他會屈從於唐納德·特朗普總統明確希望美聯儲降低利率以刺激經濟增長的願望，儘管這可能會帶來更高的通脹風險。</p>
</div><p>But Warsh made clear he had no intention of doing that. &#34;The Committee will deliver price stability,&#34; the FOMC said in a unanimous statement last week. That seems to guarantee at least one interest rate hike before the end of the year, but <strong>Bank of America</strong> thought it was emphatic enough to suggest <em>three</em> rate hikes before 2027 rolls around. The market didn't like that idea much: The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> dropped 1.2% on the news.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但沃什明確表示他沒有意圖這樣做。“委員會將實現價格穩定，” FOMC 在上週的一份一致聲明中表示。這似乎保證了在年底之前至少會有一次加息，但 <strong>美國銀行</strong> 認為這足夠明確，暗示在 2027 年之前可能會有_三次_加息。市場對此並不太喜歡：<strong>標普 500 指數</strong> 在消息公佈後下跌了 1.2%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUyNjcvNTUzNDE2NDA1NDRfNWM0OGQ5MDdkY19iLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F875267%2F55341640544_5c48d907dc_b.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Chairman Warsh answers reporters' questions at the FOMC press conference on June 17, 2026. Image source: Official Federal Reserve Photo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什主席在 2026 年 6 月 17 日的 FOMC 新聞發佈會上回答記者提問。圖片來源：美聯儲官方照片。</p>
</div><p>The Fed raised interest rates to 5.3% between August 2023 and August 2024, but inflation still stayed stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target. If Warsh is serious about getting inflation back down to 2% -- and he certainly sounds serious -- the Fed might have to push rates even higher than that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲在 2023 年 8 月至 2024 年 8 月期間將利率提高至 5.3%，但通脹仍頑固地高於美聯儲的 2% 目標。如果沃什認真想要將通脹降回 2%——而他顯然是認真的——美聯儲可能需要將利率推得更高。</p>
</div><p>Higher rates tend to benefit banks and insurance companies, which benefit from the higher fees they can charge on loans. But growth stocks, especially smaller ones that rely on debt to finance expansion, will likely struggle to maintain robust growth as borrowing becomes more expensive. Similarly, companies that have committed to big AI capital expenditures may end up delaying those projects, which could cause their stocks -- and those of AI infrastructure providers -- to falter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>較高的利率往往有利於銀行和保險公司，因為它們可以對貸款收取更高的費用。但成長型股票，尤其是那些依賴債務融資擴張的小型股票，可能會在借貸成本上升的情況下難以保持強勁增長。同樣，承諾進行大規模人工智能資本支出的公司可能會推遲這些項目，這可能導致它們的股票——以及人工智能基礎設施提供商的股票——出現下滑。</p>
</div><p>Investors will want to make sure their portfolio is balanced moving forward, and if high-growth stocks have grown to outsize positions in their portfolio, it may be wise to think about rebalancing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者在未來需要確保他們的投資組合保持平衡，如果高增長股票在他們的投資組合中佔據了過大的比例，考慮進行再平衡可能是明智的。</p>
</div>

Kevin Warsh Just Suggested the Fed May Bring Down the Hammer on Inflation. Could It Spell Trouble for Wall Street?

- 新任主席凱文·沃什在美聯儲的首次會議上明確表達降通脹意圖。  
- 通脹率自 2021 年 2 月以來未低於 2%，2026 年 5 月達到 4.2%。  
- 加息將影響經濟增長，尤其是高成長股票與 AI 投資項目。

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凱文·沃什剛剛暗示美聯儲可能會對通脹採取嚴厲措施。這是否會對華爾街造成困擾？