<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA +1.38%）將在七月初公佈其第二季度的汽車交付量——這將使人們的注意力從其更具雄心的項目，如機器人出租車和類人機器人，轉移開來。生產和交付更新中最重要的數字可能是交付量的同比增長率。</p>
<p>這一更新時機恰到好處，因為交付量是衡量特斯拉汽車需求是否在經歷 2025 年艱難時期後恢復的最直接指標——而本季度是檢驗這種恢復是否具有持續性的首次重要測試。</p>
<p>在 2025 年，特斯拉 交付了 1,636,129 輛汽車，比 2024 年的近 180 萬輛下降了 8.6%。2026 年第一季度恢復了增長，交付量同比增長 6.3%，達到 358,023 輛。但出現了一個複雜情況：特斯拉生產的汽車數量比交付的多出約 50,000 輛——這在供需之間造成了比平常更大的差距，可能讓一些投資者感到擔憂。</p>
<p>那麼，特斯拉能否報告出足夠強勁的同比增長率，以説服投資者相信公司的汽車業務正在經歷可持續的復甦？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY2NzUvdGVzbGEtc3RvY2stdHNsYS5wbmcmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="3840" height="2560" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY2NzUvdGVzbGEtc3RvY2stdHNsYS5wbmcmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>特斯拉 Cybercab。圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>特斯拉需要跨越的門檻</h2>
<p>華爾街的共識預計第二季度交付量約為 406,000 輛。一些更為樂觀的預測則更高，約為 420,000 輛。無論哪種情況，都將超過最重要的比較：特斯拉在 2025 年第二季度交付的 384,122 輛汽車。</p>
<p>回升至去年同期水平以上意味着特斯拉已經連續兩個季度實現增長。</p>
<p>因此，這裏有一個簡單的框架來解讀報告：406,000 輛或更高的數字可以説是表明有意義的復甦正在進行中。接近或超過 420,000 輛的數字則表明勢頭正在比預期更快地增長。但如果結果回落至去年的 384,122 輛，則支持空頭觀點，顯示出第一季度的反彈是暫時的，需求仍未跟上特斯拉的生產。</p>
<p>展開</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="特斯拉股票報價" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<p>特斯拉</p>
<p>今日變動</p>
<p>(1.38%) $5.18</p>
<p>當前價格</p>
<p>$380.30</p>
<h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$1.4 萬億</p>
<p>日內區間</p>
<p>$368.60 - $387.81</p>
<p>52 周區間</p>
<p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>2.2 百萬</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>56.8 百萬</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>19.07%</p>
<h2>數字決定的地方</h2>
<p>雖然特斯拉在季度生產和交付更新中並未細分地區交付量，但地區表現將是整體數字的關鍵。</p>
<p>據報道，歐洲最近已從一個薄弱環節轉變為公司的增長來源；特斯拉在歐洲的新車註冊在 5 月份同比增長超過一倍，較 2025 年的大幅下降形成了鮮明對比。特斯拉的第二大市場中國也表現良好，得益於更新後的 Model Y。</p>
<p>然而，拖累因素可能是美國。由於税收抵免在 2025 年第三季度末到期，美國的需求已經降温，註冊量據報道今年迄今下降了中十幾個百分點。因此，第二季度的數字可能歸結為一個問題：歐洲和中國的強勁表現是否足以抵消國內的疲軟？</p>
<p>儘管特斯拉交付量的同比增長率將是一個重要的觀察指標，但顯然投資者購買該股票的原因遠不止於其汽車業務。畢竟，這也是唯一能解釋其天文數字估值的原因。特斯拉股票的市盈率約為 345 倍——這一倍數只有在投資者為自動駕駛軟件和機器人而非單純的電動汽車買單時才有意義。</p>
<p>但汽車業務仍然佔特斯拉大部分收入，因此交付量疲軟將提醒人們公司距離實現其瘋狂估值還有多遠。</p>
<p>特斯拉的股票在 2026 年迄今下跌約 16%，交易價格遠低於去年 12 月接近 490 美元的高點。因此可以肯定，投資者希望能有一些好消息。話雖如此，更重要的更新可能會在七月晚些時候到來，當時公司將公佈完整的第二季度財報，其中將包括收入和現金流等財務數據，以及公司在重要的機器人出租車業務和類人機器人等長期目標上的進展。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

1 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

<p>特斯拉計劃在七月初公佈第二季度的汽車交付量，年同比增長率將是關鍵指標。華爾街預計交付量約為 406,000 輛，這將標誌着連續兩個季度的增長，並顯示出從 2025 年下降中的復甦。歐洲和中國的強勁表現可能會抵消美國市場的疲軟，因為税收抵免已到期。儘管投資者看重特斯拉的自動駕駛雄心，但強勁的汽車銷售對於證明其高估值至關重要</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>( TSLA +1.38%) is set to report its second-quarter vehicle deliveries in the first days of July -- something that will draw attention away from its more aspirational ventures like robotaxis and humanoid robots. The most important figure from the production and delivery update will likely be the year-over-year growth rate in deliveries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA +1.38%）將在七月初公佈其第二季度的汽車交付量——這將使人們的注意力從其更具雄心的項目，如機器人出租車和類人機器人，轉移開來。生產和交付更新中最重要的數字可能是交付量的同比增長率。</p>
</div><p>The update will be timely, as deliveries are the most direct measure of whether demand for Tesla's cars is recovering after a difficult 2025 -- and this quarter is the first meaningful test of whether that recovery has staying power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一更新時機恰到好處，因為交付量是衡量特斯拉汽車需求是否在經歷 2025 年艱難時期後恢復的最直接指標——而本季度是檢驗這種恢復是否具有持續性的首次重要測試。</p>
</div><p>In 2025, Tesla delivered 1,636,129 vehicles, down 8.6% from nearly 1.8 million in 2024. The first quarter of 2026 brought a return to growth, with deliveries rising 6.3% year over year to 358,023. But there was a complication: Tesla produced about 50,000 more vehicles than it delivered -- a larger-than-usual gap between supply and demand that likely worried some investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，特斯拉 交付了 1,636,129 輛汽車，比 2024 年的近 180 萬輛下降了 8.6%。2026 年第一季度恢復了增長，交付量同比增長 6.3%，達到 358,023 輛。但出現了一個複雜情況：特斯拉生產的汽車數量比交付的多出約 50,000 輛——這在供需之間造成了比平常更大的差距，可能讓一些投資者感到擔憂。</p>
</div><p>So, can Tesla report a strong enough year-over-year growth rate to convince investors that a sustainable rebound in the company's automotive business is underway?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，特斯拉能否報告出足夠強勁的同比增長率，以説服投資者相信公司的汽車業務正在經歷可持續的復甦？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY2NzUvdGVzbGEtc3RvY2stdHNsYS5wbmcmdz0zODQw" alt="The interior of a Tesla Cybercab. " original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F876675%2Ftesla-stock-tsla.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Tesla Cybercab. Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉 Cybercab。圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Here's the threshold Tesla needs to cross</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉需要跨越的門檻</h2>
</div><p>Wall Street's consensus calls for about 406,000 deliveries in the second quarter. Some of the more bullish forecasts run higher, at about 420,000. Either would clear the comparison that matters most: the 384,122 vehicles Tesla delivered in the second quarter of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街的共識預計第二季度交付量約為 406,000 輛。一些更為樂觀的預測則更高，約為 420,000 輛。無論哪種情況，都將超過最重要的比較：特斯拉在 2025 年第二季度交付的 384,122 輛汽車。</p>
</div><p>Climbing back above that year-ago level would mean Tesla has put together two straight quarters of growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回升至去年同期水平以上意味着特斯拉已經連續兩個季度實現增長。</p>
</div><p>So, here's a simple way to frame the report: A number around 406,000 or higher would arguably signal that a meaningful recovery is on track. A figure near or above 420,000 would suggest momentum is building faster than expected. But a result that slips back toward last year's 384,122 would support the bear case, showing that the first-quarter bounce was temporary and that demand still isn't keeping pace with Tesla's production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，這裏有一個簡單的框架來解讀報告：406,000 輛或更高的數字可以説是表明有意義的復甦正在進行中。接近或超過 420,000 輛的數字則表明勢頭正在比預期更快地增長。但如果結果回落至去年的 384,122 輛，則支持空頭觀點，顯示出第一季度的反彈是暫時的，需求仍未跟上特斯拉的生產。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展開</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Tesla Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FTSLA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
</div><p>Tesla</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(1.38%) $5.18</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(1.38%) $5.18</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$380.30</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$380.30</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$1.4T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1.4 萬億</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$368.60 - $387.81</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$368.60 - $387.81</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>2.2M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2.2 百萬</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>56.8M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>56.8 百萬</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>19.07%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>19.07%</p>
</div><h2>Where the number gets decided</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>數字決定的地方</h2>
</div><p>While Tesla doesn't break out regional deliveries in its quarterly production and deliveries update, regional performance will be key to the overall figure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然特斯拉在季度生產和交付更新中並未細分地區交付量，但地區表現將是整體數字的關鍵。</p>
</div><p>Europe has reportedly recently turned from a weak spot into a source of growth for the company; Tesla's new-car registrations there more than doubled year over year in May, a sharp reversal from the steep declines that weighed on 2025. China, Tesla's second-largest market, has also reportedly held up well, helped by the refreshed Model Y.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>據報道，歐洲最近已從一個薄弱環節轉變為公司的增長來源；特斯拉在歐洲的新車註冊在 5 月份同比增長超過一倍，較 2025 年的大幅下降形成了鮮明對比。特斯拉的第二大市場中國也表現良好，得益於更新後的 Model Y。</p>
</div><p>The drag, however, may be the United States. With the tax credit having expired at the end of the third quarter of 2025, U.S. demand has cooled, and registrations there have reportedly tracked down by the mid-teens so far this year. So the second-quarter number probably comes down to one question: Is the strength in Europe and China enough to more than offset any domestic softness?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，拖累因素可能是美國。由於税收抵免在 2025 年第三季度末到期，美國的需求已經降温，註冊量據報道今年迄今下降了中十幾個百分點。因此，第二季度的數字可能歸結為一個問題：歐洲和中國的強勁表現是否足以抵消國內的疲軟？</p>
</div><p>Still, even though the reported year-over-year growth rate for Tesla's deliveries will be an important figure to watch, it's clear that investors buy the stock for far more than its automotive business. After all, that's the only thing that could explain its astronomical valuation. Tesla stock trades at about 345 times earnings -- a multiple that only makes sense if investors are paying for self-driving software and robots rather than for simply electric cars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管特斯拉交付量的同比增長率將是一個重要的觀察指標，但顯然投資者購買該股票的原因遠不止於其汽車業務。畢竟，這也是唯一能解釋其天文數字估值的原因。特斯拉股票的市盈率約為 345 倍——這一倍數只有在投資者為自動駕駛軟件和機器人而非單純的電動汽車買單時才有意義。</p>
</div><p>But the car business still generates the majority of Tesla's revenue, so a soft delivery number would be a reminder of how far the company is from growing into its wild valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但汽車業務仍然佔特斯拉大部分收入，因此交付量疲軟將提醒人們公司距離實現其瘋狂估值還有多遠。</p>
</div><p>Tesla shares are down about 16% so far in 2026, trading well below their December high near $490. So you can bet investors are hoping for some good news. With that said, the more important update will probably come later in July, when the company reports its full second-quarter results, which will include financials like revenue and cash flow, as well as the company's progress on its important Robotaxi operation and its longer-term ambitions, such as humanoid robots.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的股票在 2026 年迄今下跌約 16%，交易價格遠低於去年 12 月接近 490 美元的高點。因此可以肯定，投資者希望能有一些好消息。話雖如此，更重要的更新可能會在七月晚些時候到來，當時公司將公佈完整的第二季度財報，其中將包括收入和現金流等財務數據，以及公司在重要的機器人出租車業務和類人機器人等長期目標上的進展。</p>
</div>

Tesla Reports Q2 Deliveries in a Matter of Days. Here's the Number That Matters.

- 特斯拉預計將在 7 月初公佈第二季度交付數據，關注年增長率。  
- 2025 年交付同比下降 8.6%，2026 年第一季度回升 6.3%。  
- 預測第二季度交付量為 406,000 至 420,000 輛，需關注國內外市場表現。

Motley Fool

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - T-Rex

南方兩倍做多特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Leverage Shares

Proshares Ultra TSLA

Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd TSLAMnETF

TSLA 周收益 ETF - Roundhill​

Yieldmax Tsla Option Income ETF

TSLA 期權收益策略 ETF - GraniteShares

xETFs TSLA Daily Income ETF

TSLA 期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Tesla TSLA ETF

XI二南特斯-U

2 倍做多 MAG7 指數 ETF - Roundhill

特斯拉將在幾天內公佈第二季度的交付數據。以下是關鍵數字