<p>在備受期待的 7 月 4 日假期前的就業報告中，美國經濟在 6 月份新增了季節性調整後的 57,000 個就業崗位，約為經濟學家預期的一半。</p>
<p>失業率降至 4.2%，平均時薪較上月上升 0.3%，符合預期。</p>
<p>截至下午 12:44，道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲約 347 點，而標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克綜合指數則略微下跌。</p>
<p>這份報告有些喜憂參半。一方面，它偏離了表明勞動力市場已經復甦的敍述。</p>
<p>另一方面，疲軟的數據也給美聯儲在利率軌跡上提供了更多靈活性。</p>
<p>以下是投資者需要關注的要點。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2VkMTEwZGY1ZDA2NGYwZjE1OWZiOTI3YzVlNjBmOWJiN2EyYWE2YjktNjcyMHg0NDgwLmpwZz93PTY3MjAmaD00NDgwJnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="3840" height="2560" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2VkMTEwZGY1ZDA2NGYwZjE1OWZiOTI3YzVlNjBmOWJiN2EyYWE2YjktNjcyMHg0NDgwLmpwZz93PTY3MjAmaD00NDgwJnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>壞消息</h2>
<p>在負面方面，經濟在經歷了連續三份顯示穩健增長的就業報告後，出現了這樣的情況。</p>
<p>投資者一直擔心勞動力市場，因此一系列積極的報告表明經濟可能處於更好的狀態。</p>
<p>不僅 6 月份新增的就業崗位遠低於預期，而且 5 月份的就業預測也下調至 129,000，表明情況並沒有一些人希望的那麼樂觀。</p>
<p>此外，儘管失業率降至 4.2%，但主要原因是勞動力參與率下降，降幅為 0.3%，降至 61.5%，為 2021 年 3 月以來的最低水平。</p>
<p>這意味着工作或積極尋找工作的人數減少，因此這並不一定是個好兆頭。</p>
<h2>好消息</h2>
<p>由於高通脹，主要是由於伊朗戰爭推動，經濟正走向一個看起來美聯儲可能別無選擇只能再次加息的境地。</p>
<p>這也使得經濟處於一個壞消息再次變成好消息的局面。</p>
<p>疲軟的勞動力市場可能表明通脹將放緩，因為需求通常由健康的勞動力市場驅動，人們有可支配收入可供消費。</p>
<p>此外，這份報告為美聯儲提供了更多的利率靈活性，特別是繼續保持利率穩定的能力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fe4022191ff971d3ea8ea9dd48d7dc49.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fe4022191ff971d3ea8ea9dd48d7dc49.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的美國非農就業人數月度數據</p>
<p>“對於美聯儲來説，這個數字是可以接受的，”<strong>Jefferies</strong> 高級經濟學家 Thomas Simons 在一份研究報告中寫道，引用自 CNBC。“就業增長的速度足夠強勁，可以維持穩定的失業率，平均時薪也很穩健，但沒有加速。他們沒有必要立即對利率採取任何行動，而就業增長速度的放緩表明，今年很可能不需要加息。”</p>
<p>昨天，市場對美聯儲在 9 月會議上保持利率不變的可能性估計約為 36%。截至目前，美聯儲在 9 月保持利率不變的可能性已上升至 46% 以上。</p>
<p>較高的利率通常對股票不太利好。最終，這對美聯儲來説是個好消息，他們可能希望儘量避免加息。</p>
<p>然而，我認為這份報告的影響並不大。主要指數無疑受到其他因素的影響，而今天的整體交易量可能較弱。</p>
<p>通脹仍然是一個問題，而勞動力市場依然是個謎。</p>

道瓊斯指數

道瓊斯指數 ETF - SPDR

2 倍做多道指 ETF - ProShares

3 倍做多道指 30 ETF - ProShares

做空道指 ETF - ProShares

3 倍做空道指 30 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做空道瓊斯 30 指數 ETF - ProShares

<p>美國在六月僅新增了 57,000 個就業崗位，只有預期的一半，而失業率因勞動參與率下降降至 4.2%。這一疲軟的數據減輕了美聯儲加息的壓力，增加了市場對九月份利率保持穩定的預期。因此，道瓊斯指數小幅上漲，但主要指數仍然表現不一，因為投資者在持續的通脹與放緩的勞動市場之間進行權衡</p>

<p>In a highly anticipated jobs report ahead of the July 4th holiday weekend, the U.S. economy added a seasonally adjusted 57,000 jobs in June, roughly half of what economists expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在備受期待的 7 月 4 日假期前的就業報告中，美國經濟在 6 月份新增了季節性調整後的 57,000 個就業崗位，約為經濟學家預期的一半。</p>
</div><p>The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% and average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from the prior month, in line with estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失業率降至 4.2%，平均時薪較上月上升 0.3%，符合預期。</p>
</div><p>As of 12:44 p.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded roughly 347 points higher, while both the S&amp;P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite were slightly in the red.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至下午 12:44，道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲約 347 點，而標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克綜合指數則略微下跌。</p>
</div><p>The report is a bit of a mixed bag. On one hand, it strays from the narrative suggesting the labor market has rebounded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這份報告有些喜憂參半。一方面，它偏離了表明勞動力市場已經復甦的敍述。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, the soft data also gives the Federal Reserve more flexibility regarding the trajectory of interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，疲軟的數據也給美聯儲在利率軌跡上提供了更多靈活性。</p>
</div><p>Here’s the takeaway for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是投資者需要關注的要點。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2VkMTEwZGY1ZDA2NGYwZjE1OWZiOTI3YzVlNjBmOWJiN2EyYWE2YjktNjcyMHg0NDgwLmpwZz93PTY3MjAmaD00NDgwJnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.content.foolcdn.com%2Fimages%2F1umn9qeh%2Fproduction%2Fed110df5d064f0f159fb927c5e60f9bb7a2aa6b9-6720x4480.jpg%3Fw%3D6720%26h%3D4480%26q%3D75%26auto%3Dformat&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The bad news</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>壞消息</h2>
</div><p>On the negative side of the spectrum, the economy had been coming off three consecutive jobs reports showing solid gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在負面方面，經濟在經歷了連續三份顯示穩健增長的就業報告後，出現了這樣的情況。</p>
</div><p>Investors had been worried about the labor market, so the string of positive reports suggested that the economy may be on better footing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者一直擔心勞動力市場，因此一系列積極的報告表明經濟可能處於更好的狀態。</p>
</div><p>Not only did the economy add far fewer jobs in June than expected, but the May jobs forecast got revised down to 129,000, indicating the picture hadn’t been as rosy as some had hoped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不僅 6 月份新增的就業崗位遠低於預期，而且 5 月份的就業預測也下調至 129,000，表明情況並沒有一些人希望的那麼樂觀。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, the main driver was a decline in the labor force participation rate, which fell by 0.3% to 61.5%, the lowest level since March 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，儘管失業率降至 4.2%，但主要原因是勞動力參與率下降，降幅為 0.3%，降至 61.5%，為 2021 年 3 月以來的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>This means the number of people working or actively seeking work declined, so it isn’t necessarily a good sign.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着工作或積極尋找工作的人數減少，因此這並不一定是個好兆頭。</p>
</div><h2>The good news</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>好消息</h2>
</div><p>Due to high inflation, largely driven by the Iran war, the economy was getting to a point where it looked like the Fed may have no choice but to hike interest rates again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於高通脹，主要是由於伊朗戰爭推動，經濟正走向一個看起來美聯儲可能別無選擇只能再次加息的境地。</p>
</div><p>This also put the economy in a position where bad news once again became good news.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這也使得經濟處於一個壞消息再次變成好消息的局面。</p>
</div><p>A weaker labor market can suggest inflation will slow because demand is often driven by a healthy labor market, where people have disposable income to spend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲軟的勞動力市場可能表明通脹將放緩，因為需求通常由健康的勞動力市場驅動，人們有可支配收入可供消費。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, this report gives the Fed added flexibility with interest rates, specifically the ability to continue holding them steady.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，這份報告為美聯儲提供了更多的利率靈活性，特別是繼續保持利率穩定的能力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fe4022191ff971d3ea8ea9dd48d7dc49.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fe4022191ff971d3ea8ea9dd48d7dc49.png"/></p>
<p>US Nonfarm Payrolls MoM data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的美國非農就業人數月度數據</p>
</div><p>“For the Fed, this number is fine,” <strong>Jefferies</strong> Senior Economist Thomas Simons wrote in a research note, according to CNBC. “The pace of job growth is plenty strong enough to maintain a steady unemployment rate and average hourly earnings are solid, but not accelerating. There is no imperative on their part to do anything with rates immediately, and the softening in the pace of job growth suggests that rate hikes are very unlikely to be necessary this year.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“對於美聯儲來説，這個數字是可以接受的，”<strong>Jefferies</strong> 高級經濟學家 Thomas Simons 在一份研究報告中寫道，引用自 CNBC。“就業增長的速度足夠強勁，可以維持穩定的失業率，平均時薪也很穩健，但沒有加速。他們沒有必要立即對利率採取任何行動，而就業增長速度的放緩表明，今年很可能不需要加息。”</p>
</div><p>Yesterday, the market placed a roughly 36% chance on the Fed keeping rates steady at its September meeting. As of this writing, the likelihood of the Fed holding rates steady in September increased to over 46%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>昨天，市場對美聯儲在 9 月會議上保持利率不變的可能性估計約為 36%。截至目前，美聯儲在 9 月保持利率不變的可能性已上升至 46% 以上。</p>
</div><p>Higher interest rates tend not to be as bullish for stocks. Ultimately, this is good news for the Fed, which likely wanted to avoid rate hikes if possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>較高的利率通常對股票不太利好。最終，這對美聯儲來説是個好消息，他們可能希望儘量避免加息。</p>
</div><p>However, I don’t see this as an overly impactful report. The major indexes are most certainly being impacted by other factors on a day likely characterized by weak overall trading volume.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我認為這份報告的影響並不大。主要指數無疑受到其他因素的影響，而今天的整體交易量可能較弱。</p>
</div><p>Inflation is still an issue, while the labor market remains a mystery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通脹仍然是一個問題，而勞動力市場依然是個謎。</p>
</div>

The U.S. Economy Added an Underwhelming 57,000 Jobs in June. Here's the Takeaway for Investors.

- 美國經濟在 6 月新增 57,000 個就業崗位，低於預期。  
- 失業率降至 4.2%，但勞動參與率下降至 61.5%。  
- 報告給美聯儲在利率政策上提供了更多靈活性。

美國經濟在六月僅新增了 57,000 個工作崗位，這一數字令人失望。以下是投資者需要關注的要點