<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 7.35%）剛剛發佈了歷史上最強勁的第二季度交付量，股東們的反應是單日股價下跌約 7.5%——這是近一年來的最糟糕表現。週四，這家 電動車製造商 表示，第二季度交付了 480,126 輛汽車，同比增長 25%，比分析師預測的約 406,000 輛多出約 74,000 輛。</p>
<p>從任何正常的角度來看，這都是一個巨大的成功。那麼，為什麼股價會如此大幅下跌呢？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc0NDgvaXMtdGVzbGEtc3RvY2stYS1idXkucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc0NDgvaXMtdGVzbGEtc3RvY2stYS1idXkucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA"/></p>
<p>特斯拉網絡出租車。圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>市場對此創紀錄的季度反應冷淡</h2>
<p>特斯拉的交付量不僅是與去年相比的躍升。它比特斯拉在第一季度交付的 358,023 輛汽車增長了 34%。</p>
<p>簡而言之，交付量從一年前的下降轉變為第二季度的創紀錄——正是牛市所期待的轉變。</p>
<p>那麼，原因是什麼呢？</p>
<p>部分原因是投資者早已預見到這一點。在報告發布前的幾周，特斯拉的股價上漲了約 12%，因此當數據公佈時，許多好消息已經被市場消化。這樣的 “賣消息” 反應在股票在催化劑前上漲時很常見。</p>
<p>但市場持謹慎態度的更深層原因與特斯拉交付了多少輛汽車關係不大。</p>
<h2>市場實際上在定價什麼</h2>
<p>投資者可能擔心幾個潛在問題。</p>
<p>首先，仍然存在一個懸而未決的問題，即這些銷售中有多少是由於油價短期上漲所驅動，因為一些消費者可能尋求通過轉向電動車來節省交通成本。</p>
<p>然後還有跡象表明，交付量的增加是以犧牲為代價的。生產的 451,758 輛汽車比交付量低了約 28,000 輛，這意味着特斯拉是通過減少現有庫存來達到這一數字，而不是增加生產。這引發了一個合理的問題，即本季度有多少是由於季度末的激勵措施驅動的。</p>
<p>最後，一些投資者可能擔心公司推出更具競爭力定價車型的舉措可能會損害利潤。在第一季度，特斯拉的整體毛利率為 21.1%，不包括監管信用的汽車毛利率接近 19%。如果第二季度的創紀錄交付量是由更具競爭力定價的車型驅動的，那麼這些數字可能會進一步下滑。對於一隻以這種方式定價的股票來説，這可能比交付量更為重要。</p>
<p>這種擔憂是有先例的。特斯拉在過去兩年中花費了大量時間降價以保持工廠滿負荷運轉，而每次降價都會削弱每輛車的利潤。汽車毛利率已經遠低於其峯值。</p>
<p>展開</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="特斯拉股票報價" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<p>特斯拉</p>
<p>今日變動</p>
<p>(-7.35%) $-31.26</p>
<p>當前價格</p>
<p>$394.04</p>
<h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$1.5 萬億</p>
<p>日內區間</p>
<p>$389.31 - $432.35</p>
<p>52 周區間</p>
<p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>3.8 百萬</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>55.5 百萬</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>19.07%</p>
<p>而且這隻股票的定價非常激進。特斯拉的市盈率約為 360 倍，像是一家將未來押注於自動駕駛和軟件的公司（當然，它確實在這樣做），而不是在本季度銷售更多汽車。因此，這樣的估值依賴於利潤的飆升，因此市場希望證明交付量是盈利的，而不是總是依賴於更具投機性和長期的商業計劃。</p>
<p>當然，創紀錄的季度顯示出需求比熊市預期的要健康。但這裏的牛市論點並不真正關乎特斯拉今年賣出了多少輛汽車。相反，它依賴於將 自動駕駛軟件 和初步的機器人出租車車隊轉變為高利潤、經常性收入。</p>
<p>我們真正需要的數字和管理層的評論將於 7 月 22 日到來，屆時特斯拉將公佈完整的第二季度財務結果。</p>
<p>就個人而言，我不會將週四的下跌視為對本季度的裁決——這更像是市場推遲判斷，股價在大幅上漲後進行喘息。報告需要顯示特斯拉在不犧牲利潤的情況下交付了 480,000 輛汽車。而且，更重要的是，特斯拉需要再次向投資者保證其高利潤項目正在取得進展。</p>

1.25 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - T-Rex

<p>特斯拉報告了創紀錄的第二季度交付量，達到 480,126 輛，超出預期 74,000 輛。儘管表現強勁，TSLA 股票仍下跌 7.5%，創下近一年來的最大單日跌幅。此次下跌反映了投資者的擔憂，即這一交付量是由短期因素驅動的，如油價和庫存減少，而非有機需求，這可能會影響利潤率。此外，許多積極消息已經被市場消化。投資者現在正等待 7 月 22 日的完整財務結果，以評估盈利能力和高利潤項目的進展</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>( TSLA 7.35%) just posted its strongest second-quarter deliveries in its history, and shareholders responded by knocking about 7.5% off the stock in a single session -- its worst day in nearly a year. On Thursday, the electric-car maker said it delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter, up 25% year over year, about 74,000 more than the 406,000 or so analysts had modeled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 7.35%）剛剛發佈了歷史上最強勁的第二季度交付量，股東們的反應是單日股價下跌約 7.5%——這是近一年來的最糟糕表現。週四，這家 電動車製造商 表示，第二季度交付了 480,126 輛汽車，同比增長 25%，比分析師預測的約 406,000 輛多出約 74,000 輛。</p>
</div><p>By any normal reading, that is a blowout. So why did the stock fall so hard?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從任何正常的角度來看，這都是一個巨大的成功。那麼，為什麼股價會如此大幅下跌呢？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc0NDgvaXMtdGVzbGEtc3RvY2stYS1idXkucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA" alt="The Tesla Cybercab." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F877448%2Fis-tesla-stock-a-buy.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Tesla Cybercab. Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉網絡出租車。圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>A record quarter the market shrugged off</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市場對此創紀錄的季度反應冷淡</h2>
</div><p>Tesla's deliveries were not just a jump from a year earlier. They marked a 34% leap from the 358,023 vehicles Tesla delivered in the first quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的交付量不僅是與去年相比的躍升。它比特斯拉在第一季度交付的 358,023 輛汽車增長了 34%。</p>
</div><p>In short, deliveries have swung from declining a year ago to a second-quarter record -- exactly the kind of turn the bulls have been waiting for.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡而言之，交付量從一年前的下降轉變為第二季度的創紀錄——正是牛市所期待的轉變。</p>
</div><p>So what gives?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，原因是什麼呢？</p>
</div><p>Part of the answer is that investors saw it coming. Tesla shares had climbed about 12% in the weeks before the report, so by the time the figure landed, much of the good news was already priced in. A sell-the-news reaction like this is common when a stock runs up into a catalyst.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>部分原因是投資者早已預見到這一點。在報告發布前的幾周，特斯拉的股價上漲了約 12%，因此當數據公佈時，許多好消息已經被市場消化。這樣的 “賣消息” 反應在股票在催化劑前上漲時很常見。</p>
</div><p>But there is a deeper reason the market held back, and it has little to do with how many cars Tesla delivered.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但市場持謹慎態度的更深層原因與特斯拉交付了多少輛汽車關係不大。</p>
</div><h2>What the market is actually pricing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市場實際上在定價什麼</h2>
</div><p>There are a few underlying problems that investors may be concerned about.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者可能擔心幾個潛在問題。</p>
</div><p>First and foremost, there's a lingering question about how many of these sales were driven by a short-term spike in gas prices, as some consumers likely sought ways to save on transportation costs by switching to electric vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，仍然存在一個懸而未決的問題，即這些銷售中有多少是由於油價短期上漲所驅動，因為一些消費者可能尋求通過轉向電動車來節省交通成本。</p>
</div><p>Then there are hints that the volume came at a cost. Production of 451,758 vehicles ran about 28,000 units below deliveries, meaning Tesla drew down existing inventory to hit the headline number rather than building stock. That raises a fair question about how much of the quarter was driven by end-of-quarter incentives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然後還有跡象表明，交付量的增加是以犧牲為代價的。生產的 451,758 輛汽車比交付量低了約 28,000 輛，這意味着特斯拉是通過減少現有庫存來達到這一數字，而不是增加生產。這引發了一個合理的問題，即本季度有多少是由於季度末的激勵措施驅動的。</p>
</div><p>Finally, some investors may worry that the company's push to introduce more aggressively priced models could be hurting margins. In the first quarter, Tesla's overall gross margin was 21.1%, with automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits closer to 19%. If the second quarter's record volume was driven by more aggressively priced vehicles, those figures could slip even further. And for a stock priced the way this one is, that may matter more than the delivery count.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，一些投資者可能擔心公司推出更具競爭力定價車型的舉措可能會損害利潤。在第一季度，特斯拉的整體毛利率為 21.1%，不包括監管信用的汽車毛利率接近 19%。如果第二季度的創紀錄交付量是由更具競爭力定價的車型驅動的，那麼這些數字可能會進一步下滑。對於一隻以這種方式定價的股票來説，這可能比交付量更為重要。</p>
</div><p>There is precedent for the worry. Tesla spent much of the past two years cutting prices to keep its factories full, and each cut chipped away at the profit on every car sold. Automotive gross margin has already fallen well off its peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種擔憂是有先例的。特斯拉在過去兩年中花費了大量時間降價以保持工廠滿負荷運轉，而每次降價都會削弱每輛車的利潤。汽車毛利率已經遠低於其峯值。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展開</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Tesla Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FTSLA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
</div><p>Tesla</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(-7.35%) $-31.26</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-7.35%) $-31.26</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$394.04</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$394.04</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$1.5T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1.5 萬億</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$389.31 - $432.35</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$389.31 - $432.35</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>3.8M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3.8 百萬</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>55.5M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>55.5 百萬</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>19.07%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>19.07%</p>
</div><p>And the stock is priced aggressively. At about 360 times earnings, Tesla trades like a company betting its future on autonomy and software (of course, it ultimately is doing this), not on selling more cars this quarter. A valuation like that, therefore, relies on soaring profits, so the market wants proof that the volume was profitable rather than always leaning on more speculative, longer-term business initiatives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且這隻股票的定價非常激進。特斯拉的市盈率約為 360 倍，像是一家將未來押注於自動駕駛和軟件的公司（當然，它確實在這樣做），而不是在本季度銷售更多汽車。因此，這樣的估值依賴於利潤的飆升，因此市場希望證明交付量是盈利的，而不是總是依賴於更具投機性和長期的商業計劃。</p>
</div><p>Of course, a record quarter shows demand is healthier than the bears feared. But the bull case here isn't really about how many cars Tesla sells this year. Instead, it rests on turning self-driving software and a nascent robotaxi fleet into high-margin, recurring revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，創紀錄的季度顯示出需求比熊市預期的要健康。但這裏的牛市論點並不真正關乎特斯拉今年賣出了多少輛汽車。相反，它依賴於將 自動駕駛軟件 和初步的機器人出租車車隊轉變為高利潤、經常性收入。</p>
</div><p>The figures and management commentary we really need will arrive on July 22, when Tesla reports full second-quarter financial results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們真正需要的數字和管理層的評論將於 7 月 22 日到來，屆時特斯拉將公佈完整的第二季度財務結果。</p>
</div><p>Personally, I wouldn't read Thursday's drop as a verdict on the quarter -- it looks more like the market deferring judgment and the stock taking a breather after a big run-up. The report needs to show that Tesla moved 480,000 cars without sacrificing margin. And, even more, Tesla will need to once again reassure investors that its higher-margin initiatives are making progress.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就個人而言，我不會將週四的下跌視為對本季度的裁決——這更像是市場推遲判斷，股價在大幅上漲後進行喘息。報告需要顯示特斯拉在不犧牲利潤的情況下交付了 480,000 輛汽車。而且，更重要的是，特斯拉需要再次向投資者保證其高利潤項目正在取得進展。</p>
</div>

Tesla Beat Delivery Estimates by 74,000 Vehicles -- and the Stock Had Its Worst Day in Nearly a Year. Here's Why.

- 特斯拉第二季度交付 480,126 輛，創歷史新高，同比增長 25%。  
- 儘管交付量增加，股價卻下跌約 7.5%，市場對此反應冷淡。  
- 投資者擔心銷量增長可能損害利潤，並期待後續財報確認盈利能力。

Motley Fool

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - T-Rex

Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF

Yieldmax Tsla Option Income ETF

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Leverage Shares

Proshares Ultra TSLA

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd TSLAMnETF

1 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

TSLA 周收益 ETF - Roundhill​

TSLA 期權收益策略 ETF - GraniteShares

xETFs TSLA Daily Income ETF

TSLA 期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Tesla TSLA ETF

XI二南特斯-U

2 倍做多 MAG7 指數 ETF - Roundhill

特斯拉交付量超出預期 74,000 輛，但其股價卻經歷了近一年來最糟糕的一天。這是原因