<p><strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA 1.39%）多年來一直是投資者青睞的人工智能（AI）股票。作為全球最大的 AI 芯片設計公司，它創造了令人矚目的收入增長，達到了創紀錄的水平，並在 AI 熱潮中證明了自己的成功。因此，投資者轉向這隻股票，推動其在過去五年中上漲了約 900%，也就不足為奇了。</p>
<p>但在今年上半年，情況發生了變化。投資者從一些最大的 AI 贏家——如英偉達——中撤出資金，轉而購買尚未獲得如此高漲幅的 AI 股票。這一變化幫助了其他芯片公司 <strong>超威半導體</strong>（AMD 4.60%）和 <strong>英特爾</strong>（INTC 5.61%）大幅上漲。它們在上半年分別上漲了 171% 和 278%，遠超英偉達。AI 芯片巨頭英偉達僅上漲了 7.2%，對於這隻股票來説，這個增幅相對較小。</p>
<p>AMD 和英特爾會繼續超越英偉達嗎？這是我對下半年的預測。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzcwNzMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE3MDg4OTk4NC0xMjAweDY3NS0xMjg1NTRlLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1200" height="675" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzcwNzMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE3MDg4OTk4NC0xMjAweDY3NS0xMjg1NTRlLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>AI 機會</h2>
<p>在我給出預測之前，讓我們回顧一下這些公司迄今為止如何把握 AI 機會。英偉達是首個推出針對 AI 需求的 圖形處理單元（GPU）的公司，使其在這一領域建立了領導地位。英特爾和 AMD 傳統上在另一種處理器——中央處理單元（CPU）方面佔據領導地位，CPU 是計算機的主要處理器。</p>
<p>英特爾在這一領域領先多年，擁有超過 59% 的 CPU 市場份額，儘管 AMD 逐漸取得了進展，從 2016 年的約 17% 提升至今天的 38%。</p>
<p>在 AI 早期階段，GPU 是兩種芯片中最相關的，驅動着最重要的任務，如 AI 模型的訓練。這對英偉達來説是個好消息。AMD 和英特爾稍晚進入 GPU 市場，雖然 AMD 在這裏成功實現了增長，但英特爾卻遇到了困難。</p>
<p>儘管如此，英特爾旨在扭轉局面，並採取了關鍵措施。公司在一年多前任命了新首席執行官 Lip-Bu Tan，以推動公司的轉型戰略並加強其在 AI 市場 的地位，投資者對迄今為止的進展和出現的好消息表示讚賞。美國政府去年夏天以約 100 億美元的價格獲得了英特爾 10% 的股份，這一舉動被視為投資者所認可的信心標誌。在最新的一個季度中，英特爾的收入增長了 7%，這是連續第六個季度的收入超出公司的預期。</p>
<h2>AMD 和英特爾飆升</h2>
<p>因此，毫不奇怪的是，AMD 和英特爾 在股票表現上大幅落後於英偉達，但在今年上半年它們的股價卻飆升。</p>
<p>展開</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0lOVEMucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="英特爾股票報價" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0lOVEMucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: INTC</h2>
<p>英特爾</p>
<p>今日變動</p>
<p>(-5.61%) $-7.12</p>
<p>當前價格</p>
<p>$119.90</p>
<h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$605B</p>
<p>日內區間</p>
<p>$117.64 - $130.71</p>
<p>52 周區間</p>
<p>$18.96 - $142.35</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>6.2M</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>136.6M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>35.90%</p>
<p>現在，這是我對下半年的預測。我預測英偉達將超越這些競爭對手。這有兩個原因：英偉達的下一個目標和其估值。我先從目標開始，這就是主導 2000 億美元的 CPU 市場——這是英偉達過去並未大力進入的市場。事實上，它將在今年秋季推出首款獨立 CPU，作為 Vera Rubin 平台的一部分。同時，英偉達還針對個人計算市場推出了一款超級芯片——同樣計劃在秋季發佈——該芯片包括一個 GPU 和一個 CPU。</p>
<p>雖然英偉達可能很難在整個 CPU 市場中完全佔據領導地位，但我認為該公司在數據中心的 CPU 市場中顯然可以佔據主導地位。英偉達預計今年獨立 CPU 銷售將達到 200 億美元。值得注意的是，CPU 是驅動自主 AI 所需的關鍵芯片，而自主 AI 預計將成為下一個 AI 增長驅動因素。這涉及將 AI 應用於現實世界問題，代理人採取解決問題的步驟。</p>
<p>雖然英偉達潛在的 CPU 市場領導地位不會一蹴而就，但如果 Rubin 平台成功推出並且需求旺盛，可能會導致英偉達在下半年的股票表現積極。</p>
<p>估值也可能促使投資者更青睞英偉達而非 AMD 和英特爾。</p>
<p></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻） 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>以約 22 倍的前瞻性收益預期，英偉達看起來非常便宜，而在最近的漲幅後，另外兩家芯片公司的估值則顯得過高。所有這些促使我預測，經歷了最近幾個月股市動能的暫停後，英偉達可能在下半年飆升，並超越 AMD 和英特爾。</p>

英特爾

英偉達

<p>本文分析了上半年股票表現，其中 AMD 和英特爾的表現優於英偉達。文章預測英偉達將在下半年重新奪回主導地位，理由是其通過 Vera Rubin 平台進入 CPU 市場，並且其前瞻市盈率為 22 倍，相較於同行的更高估值具有吸引力</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA 1.39%) has been the &#34;go-to&#34; artificial intelligence (AI) stock for a number of years. Since this tech giant is the No. 1 designer of AI chips, it's generated mind-boggling revenue growth that's reached record levels and proven itself to be a winner in the AI boom. So it's no surprise that investors have turned to the stock, pushing it to a gain of about 900% over the past five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA 1.39%）多年來一直是投資者青睞的人工智能（AI）股票。作為全球最大的 AI 芯片設計公司，它創造了令人矚目的收入增長，達到了創紀錄的水平，並在 AI 熱潮中證明了自己的成功。因此，投資者轉向這隻股票，推動其在過去五年中上漲了約 900%，也就不足為奇了。</p>
</div><p>But in the first half of this year, a shift took place. Investors rotated out of some of the biggest AI winners -- like Nvidia -- and picked up shares of AI stocks that hadn't yet gained as much. That movement helped fellow chip companies <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>( AMD 4.60%) and <strong>Intel</strong>( INTC 5.61%) soar. Climbing 171% and 278%, respectively, in the first half, they crushed Nvidia. The AI chip giant advanced 7.2%, which is a pretty small gain for this stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在今年上半年，情況發生了變化。投資者從一些最大的 AI 贏家——如英偉達——中撤出資金，轉而購買尚未獲得如此高漲幅的 AI 股票。這一變化幫助了其他芯片公司 <strong>超威半導體</strong>（AMD 4.60%）和 <strong>英特爾</strong>（INTC 5.61%）大幅上漲。它們在上半年分別上漲了 171% 和 278%，遠超英偉達。AI 芯片巨頭英偉達僅上漲了 7.2%，對於這隻股票來説，這個增幅相對較小。</p>
</div><p>Will AMD and Intel keep crushing Nvidia? Here's my prediction for the second half.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMD 和英特爾會繼續超越英偉達嗎？這是我對下半年的預測。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzcwNzMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE3MDg4OTk4NC0xMjAweDY3NS0xMjg1NTRlLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="An AI chip is shown." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F877073%2Fgettyimages-2170889984-1200x675-128554e.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The AI opportunity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AI 機會</h2>
</div><p>Before we get to my prediction, though, let's catch up on how these companies have approached the AI opportunity so far. Nvidia was the first to market with graphics processing units (GPUs) tailored to the needs of AI, allowing the company to build out its leadership here. Intel and AMD have traditionally been leaders in another type of processor: the central processing unit (CPU), the main processor in computers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我給出預測之前，讓我們回顧一下這些公司迄今為止如何把握 AI 機會。英偉達是首個推出針對 AI 需求的 圖形處理單元（GPU）的公司，使其在這一領域建立了領導地位。英特爾和 AMD 傳統上在另一種處理器——中央處理單元（CPU）方面佔據領導地位，CPU 是計算機的主要處理器。</p>
</div><p>Intel has led here for years and holds more than 59% of total CPU market share, though AMD has gained ground, progressing from a low of about 17% back in 2016 to 38% today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英特爾在這一領域領先多年，擁有超過 59% 的 CPU 市場份額，儘管 AMD 逐漸取得了進展，從 2016 年的約 17% 提升至今天的 38%。</p>
</div><p>The GPU was the most relevant of the two chips during the early days of AI, driving the most important tasks such as the training of AI models. And that was fantastic news for Nvidia. AMD and Intel entered the GPU market later, and while AMD has successfully delivered growth here, Intel has experienced difficulty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 AI 早期階段，GPU 是兩種芯片中最相關的，驅動着最重要的任務，如 AI 模型的訓練。這對英偉達來説是個好消息。AMD 和英特爾稍晚進入 GPU 市場，雖然 AMD 在這裏成功實現了增長，但英特爾卻遇到了困難。</p>
</div><p>That said, Intel aims to turn this around and has taken key steps. The company appointed new chief executive officer Lip-Bu Tan a little over a year ago to drive the company's turnaround strategy and strengthen its position in the AI market, and investors like the progress so far and the good news that's emerged. The U.S. government took a 10% stake in Intel last summer, worth about $10 billion -- a sign of confidence that investors appreciated. In the latest quarter, Intel's revenue climbed 7%, and this was the sixth straight quarter of revenue that beat the company's expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，英特爾旨在扭轉局面，並採取了關鍵措施。公司在一年多前任命了新首席執行官 Lip-Bu Tan，以推動公司的轉型戰略並加強其在 AI 市場 的地位，投資者對迄今為止的進展和出現的好消息表示讚賞。美國政府去年夏天以約 100 億美元的價格獲得了英特爾 10% 的股份，這一舉動被視為投資者所認可的信心標誌。在最新的一個季度中，英特爾的收入增長了 7%，這是連續第六個季度的收入超出公司的預期。</p>
</div><h2>AMD and Intel skyrocket</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AMD 和英特爾飆升</h2>
</div><p>So, it's not surprising that AMD and Intel, which greatly lagged behind Nvidia from a stock performance perspective, saw their shares skyrocket in the first half of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，毫不奇怪的是，AMD 和英特爾 在股票表現上大幅落後於英偉達，但在今年上半年它們的股價卻飆升。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展開</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0lOVEMucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Intel Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FINTC.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: INTC</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: INTC</h2>
</div><p>Intel</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英特爾</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(-5.61%) $-7.12</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-5.61%) $-7.12</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$119.90</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$119.90</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$605B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$605B</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$117.64 - $130.71</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$117.64 - $130.71</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$18.96 - $142.35</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$18.96 - $142.35</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>6.2M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>6.2M</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>136.6M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>136.6M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>35.90%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>35.90%</p>
</div><p>Now, here's my prediction for the second half. I predict that Nvidia will outpace these rivals. And this is for two reasons: Nvidia's next goal and its valuation. I'll start with the goal, and this is to dominate the $200 billion CPU market -- a market where Nvidia has not been greatly present in the past. In fact, it's launching its first-ever stand-alone CPU this fall as part of the Vera Rubin platform. And at the same time, Nvidia is targeting the personal computing market with a superchip -- also set for fall release -- that includes a GPU and a CPU.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，這是我對下半年的預測。我預測英偉達將超越這些競爭對手。這有兩個原因：英偉達的下一個目標和其估值。我先從目標開始，這就是主導 2000 億美元的 CPU 市場——這是英偉達過去並未大力進入的市場。事實上，它將在今年秋季推出首款獨立 CPU，作為 Vera Rubin 平台的一部分。同時，英偉達還針對個人計算市場推出了一款超級芯片——同樣計劃在秋季發佈——該芯片包括一個 GPU 和一個 CPU。</p>
</div><p>While it may be difficult for Nvidia to take complete leadership of the entire CPU market, I think the company could clearly dominate in the CPU market for data centers. Nvidia already forecasts $20 billion in stand-alone CPU sales this year. It's important to note that the CPU is the key chip needed to power agentic AI -- and agentic AI is expected to be the next AI growth driver. This involves the application of AI to real-world problems, with the agent taking problem-solving steps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然英偉達可能很難在整個 CPU 市場中完全佔據領導地位，但我認為該公司在數據中心的 CPU 市場中顯然可以佔據主導地位。英偉達預計今年獨立 CPU 銷售將達到 200 億美元。值得注意的是，CPU 是驅動自主 AI 所需的關鍵芯片，而自主 AI 預計將成為下一個 AI 增長驅動因素。這涉及將 AI 應用於現實世界問題，代理人採取解決問題的步驟。</p>
</div><p>While Nvidia's potential CPU market leadership won't happen overnight, a successful launch of the Rubin platform and high demand could lead to positive stock performance for Nvidia in the second half.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然英偉達潛在的 CPU 市場領導地位不會一蹴而就，但如果 Rubin 平台成功推出並且需求旺盛，可能會導致英偉達在下半年的股票表現積極。</p>
</div><p>Valuation could also push investors to favor Nvidia over AMD and Intel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>估值也可能促使投資者更青睞英偉達而非 AMD 和英特爾。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻） 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>At about 22x forward earnings estimates, Nvidia looks dirt cheap, while the two chip peers look excessively expensive after their recent gains. All of this prompts me to predict that Nvidia, which saw a pause in its stock market momentum in recent months, may soar in the second half -- and crush AMD and Intel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以約 22 倍的前瞻性收益預期，英偉達看起來非常便宜，而在最近的漲幅後，另外兩家芯片公司的估值則顯得過高。所有這些促使我預測，經歷了最近幾個月股市動能的暫停後，英偉達可能在下半年飆升，並超越 AMD 和英特爾。</p>
</div>

AMD Stock and Intel Crushed Nvidia in the First Half. Here's My Prediction for the Second Half.

- Nvidia 在 AI 市場的領導地位面臨挑戰，股價增長相對較小。
- AMD 和 Intel 在上半年股價大幅增長，分別上漲 171% 和 278%。
- Nvidia 計劃推出 CPU，以期在下半年逆襲並主導數據中心市場。

Motley Fool

2 倍做多 AMD ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做多 INTC ETF - GraniteShares

GraniteShares 2x Long AMD Daily ETF

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1.5 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Tradr

1 倍做空 AMD ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做空英偉達

Direxion Daily INTC Bull 2X ETF

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Leverage Shares 2X Long AMD Daily ETF

Defiance Daily Target 2X Short AMD ETF

YieldMax AMD Option Income Strategy ETF

Roundhill AMD WeeklyPay ETF

ProShares Ultra NVDA

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - Leverage Shares

Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd NVDAMnETF

NVDA 週配息 ETF - Roundhill​

GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF

xETFs NVDA Daily Income ETF

NVDA 期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

XI二南英偉-U

2 倍做多 MAG7 指數 ETF - Roundhill

半導體 ETF - VanEck Vectors

費城交易所 半導體 ETF - iShares

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF

標普半導體 ETF - SPDR

動態半導體 ETF - Invesco

納斯達克半導體 ETF - First Trust

NVIDIA Corporation

AMD 股票和英特爾在上半年表現優於英偉達。以下是我對下半年的預測