<p>在經歷了三年的輝煌增長後，科技公司在今年上半年面臨了更加坎坷的道路——尤其是在第一季度。投資者對人工智能（AI）支出的速度感到擔憂，並質疑這一收入機會是否值得。伊朗的動盪也影響了市場情緒，能源價格上漲，投資者密切關注美國的經濟報告——許多報告使他們開始質疑經濟的強勁程度。所有這些不確定性促使投資者從某些 AI 股票中撤出，轉向被視為提供更穩定收入的公司。</p>
<p>然而，在第二季度，情況有所好轉，強勁的企業盈利報告和伊朗和平進程的努力給投資者帶來了樂觀的理由。<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>、<strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong> 和 <strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong> 甚至都實現了兩位數的增長。道瓊斯在過去五年中首次上半年表現最佳。</p>
<p>但是，在上半年，有一隻特定的科技股票表現不佳。這家巨頭在此期間成為道瓊斯中表現最差的巨型股。該公司是一個應該避免的股票，還是現在為投資者提供了一個顯而易見的買入機會？讓我們來看看。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc1MzQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTA1OTY2MTk0MC5qcGcmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc1MzQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTA1OTY2MTk0MC5qcGcmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>你可能每天使用的平台</h2>
<p>我説的是哪家公司？你可能非常熟悉——你甚至可能每天在工作或家中使用其關鍵產品之一。我説的是 <strong>微軟</strong>（MSFT 0.94%），它擁有包括極受歡迎的 Word 和 Excel 在內的 Microsoft 365 應用套件。</p>
<p>微軟的股票在上半年下跌了約 20%，成為道瓊斯中表現最差的巨型股。為什麼會出現如此下跌？年初，隨着 AI 模型能力的進步，一些投資者開始擔心 AI 最終會取代軟件。因此，像微軟這樣的軟件股票下滑。</p>
<p>展開</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL01TRlQucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="微軟股票報價" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL01TRlQucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: MSFT</h2>
<p>微軟</p>
<p>今日變動</p>
<p>(-0.94%) $-3.68</p>
<p>當前價格</p>
<p>$386.81</p>
<h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$2.9T 市值僅基於公開交易的流通股計算。不包括未上市、私有或雙重類別非交易股份。隱含市值可能會有所不同。市值僅基於公開交易的流通股計算。不包括未上市、私有或雙重類別非交易股份。隱含市值可能會有所不同。</p>
<p>日內區間</p>
<p>$381.26 - $389.04</p>
<p>52 周區間</p>
<p>$349.20 - $555.45</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>1.1M</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>39.8M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>68.31%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.91%</p>
<p>現在，我會立即解決這個擔憂：AI 在未來可能會取代某些軟件——但我不認為 Microsoft 365 套件會成為這一羣體的一部分。公司已經將微軟的軟件廣泛集成到其運營中，這意味着放棄這一平台以選擇其他選項將是困難、耗時且成本高昂的。還需要注意的是，微軟的軟件集成了 AI，為用户提供瞭如 Copilot 等 AI 功能。因此，隨着 AI 的進步，微軟的軟件也可能會得到改善。</p>
<p>與此同時，微軟的用户可能不會迅速改變他們在 Microsoft Word 上寫作的習慣，轉而使用新系統。人們往往會堅持他們最熟悉的東西——許多人已經使用微軟的軟件數十年。</p>
<h2>AI 作為有價值的合作伙伴</h2>
<p>所以我認為 AI 並不構成對微軟的重大威脅，反而可能成為一個有價值的合作伙伴。此外，微軟的 雲業務 也因其向客户提供 AI 產品和服務而顯著受益。在最近一個季度，該公司表示其 AI 業務飆升了 123%，超過了 370 億美元的年收入運行率。作為雲計算的領導者和 OpenAI 的關鍵合作伙伴——微軟在該 AI 實驗室投資了約 130 億美元——微軟在 AI 故事的未來章節中處於有利位置。</p>
<p>當然，微軟的股票可能不會像年輕的新興 AI 股票那樣飆升，但這沒關係。該公司的形象可能適合廣泛的投資者：其盈利記錄將令謹慎的投資者印象深刻，而其對 AI 的曝光將令成長型投資者滿意。這種組合應該能在長期內支持股票表現。</p>
<p>與此同時，微軟的前瞻性市盈率為 20 倍，顯得極為便宜，使這隻道瓊斯股票現在成為一個顯而易見的買入機會。</p>

微軟

微軟每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微軟每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFX

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFO

MSFW

MSFY

2 倍做多 MAG7 指數 ETF - Roundhill

<p>在今年上半年，微軟是道瓊斯工業平均指數中表現最差的巨頭公司，股價下跌約 20%，原因是投資者擔心人工智能可能會取代傳統軟件。然而，文章認為這是一個買入機會，指出微軟在商業運營中的深度整合、成功引入的人工智能功能如 Copilot，以及其雲計算/人工智能業務年收入達到 370 億美元的強勁表現。以 20 倍的未來收益估值，微軟被視為一個強勁的長期投資</p>

<p>After three years of spectacular gains, technology companies faced a rockier path in the first half of this year -- particularly in the first quarter. Investors worried about the pace of spending on artificial intelligence (AI) and whether the revenue opportunity would make it all worthwhile. Turmoil in Iran also weighed on sentiment as energy prices rose and investors carefully watched U.S. economic reports -- and many of these reports prompted them to question the strength of the economy. All of these uncertainties pushed investors into a rotation out of certain AI stocks and into companies viewed as offering more revenue stability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在經歷了三年的輝煌增長後，科技公司在今年上半年面臨了更加坎坷的道路——尤其是在第一季度。投資者對人工智能（AI）支出的速度感到擔憂，並質疑這一收入機會是否值得。伊朗的動盪也影響了市場情緒，能源價格上漲，投資者密切關注美國的經濟報告——許多報告使他們開始質疑經濟的強勁程度。所有這些不確定性促使投資者從某些 AI 股票中撤出，轉向被視為提供更穩定收入的公司。</p>
</div><p>The situation brightened in the second quarter, as strong corporate earnings reports and work toward peace in Iran offered investors reason for optimism. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>, and the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> even advanced in the double digits. And the Dow posted its best first half in five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在第二季度，情況有所好轉，強勁的企業盈利報告和伊朗和平進程的努力給投資者帶來了樂觀的理由。<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>、<strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong> 和 <strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong> 甚至都實現了兩位數的增長。道瓊斯在過去五年中首次上半年表現最佳。</p>
</div><p>But, during the first half, one particular tech stock had a difficult time. This giant was the worst-performing mega-cap in the Dow over that period. Is the company a stock to avoid, or is it offering investors a no-brainer buying opportunity right now? Let's find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，在上半年，有一隻特定的科技股票表現不佳。這家巨頭在此期間成為道瓊斯中表現最差的巨型股。該公司是一個應該避免的股票，還是現在為投資者提供了一個顯而易見的買入機會？讓我們來看看。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc1MzQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTA1OTY2MTk0MC5qcGcmdz0zODQw" alt="An investor looks at a declining stock chart. " original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F877534%2Fgettyimages-1059661940.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Platforms you may use daily</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你可能每天使用的平台</h2>
</div><p>Which company am I talking about? One that you probably know very well -- you may even use one of its key products daily at work or at home. I'm talking about <strong>Microsoft</strong>( MSFT 0.94%), owner of the Microsoft 365 suite of apps, including the immensely popular platforms Word and Excel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我説的是哪家公司？你可能非常熟悉——你甚至可能每天在工作或家中使用其關鍵產品之一。我説的是 <strong>微軟</strong>（MSFT 0.94%），它擁有包括極受歡迎的 Word 和 Excel 在內的 Microsoft 365 應用套件。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft stock dropped about 20% in the first half of the year, posting the biggest loss of any mega-cap member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Why such a decline? Earlier in the year, as the abilities of AI models progressed, some investors started to worry that AI would eventually replace software. As a result, software stocks such as Microsoft slid.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟的股票在上半年下跌了約 20%，成為道瓊斯中表現最差的巨型股。為什麼會出現如此下跌？年初，隨着 AI 模型能力的進步，一些投資者開始擔心 AI 最終會取代軟件。因此，像微軟這樣的軟件股票下滑。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展開</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL01TRlQucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Microsoft Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FMSFT.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: MSFT</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: MSFT</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(-0.94%) $-3.68</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-0.94%) $-3.68</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$386.81</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$386.81</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$2.9TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.Market cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$2.9T 市值僅基於公開交易的流通股計算。不包括未上市、私有或雙重類別非交易股份。隱含市值可能會有所不同。市值僅基於公開交易的流通股計算。不包括未上市、私有或雙重類別非交易股份。隱含市值可能會有所不同。</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$381.26 - $389.04</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$381.26 - $389.04</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$349.20 - $555.45</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$349.20 - $555.45</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>1.1M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1.1M</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>39.8M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>39.8M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>68.31%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>68.31%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.91%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.91%</p>
</div><p>Now, I'll address this concern right away: It's very possible that AI could replace some software down the road -- but I wouldn't expect the Microsoft 365 suite to be part of this group. Companies have extensively integrated Microsoft's software into their operations, meaning it would be difficult, time-consuming, and costly to drop this platform in favor of another option. It's also important to note that Microsoft's software integrates AI, offering AI features such as Copilot to users. So as AI advances, Microsoft's software is likely to improve too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，我會立即解決這個擔憂：AI 在未來可能會取代某些軟件——但我不認為 Microsoft 365 套件會成為這一羣體的一部分。公司已經將微軟的軟件廣泛集成到其運營中，這意味着放棄這一平台以選擇其他選項將是困難、耗時且成本高昂的。還需要注意的是，微軟的軟件集成了 AI，為用户提供瞭如 Copilot 等 AI 功能。因此，隨着 AI 的進步，微軟的軟件也可能會得到改善。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, at home users of Microsoft may not be quick to shift out of their habits of writing on Microsoft Word, for example, and favor a new system. People tend to stick with what they feel most comfortable with -- and many people have been using Microsoft's software for decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，微軟的用户可能不會迅速改變他們在 Microsoft Word 上寫作的習慣，轉而使用新系統。人們往往會堅持他們最熟悉的東西——許多人已經使用微軟的軟件數十年。</p>
</div><h2>AI as a valuable partner</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AI 作為有價值的合作伙伴</h2>
</div><p>So I don't think AI represents a major threat to Microsoft, and instead, it may even be a valuable partner. On top of this, Microsoft's cloud business is significantly benefiting from AI as it offers AI products and services to its customers. In the recent quarter, the company said its AI business soared 123% to exceed an annual revenue run rate of $37 billion. As a cloud leader and a key partner of OpenAI -- Microsoft has invested about $13 billion in the AI lab -- Microsoft is well-positioned to win in the coming chapters of the AI story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以我認為 AI 並不構成對微軟的重大威脅，反而可能成為一個有價值的合作伙伴。此外，微軟的 雲業務 也因其向客户提供 AI 產品和服務而顯著受益。在最近一個季度，該公司表示其 AI 業務飆升了 123%，超過了 370 億美元的年收入運行率。作為雲計算的領導者和 OpenAI 的關鍵合作伙伴——微軟在該 AI 實驗室投資了約 130 億美元——微軟在 AI 故事的未來章節中處於有利位置。</p>
</div><p>Of course, Microsoft stock may not soar as much as a young, up-and-coming AI stock, but that's OK. The company has a profile that may suit a broad range of investors: Its earnings track record will impress cautious investors, and its exposure to AI will please growth investors. And this combination should support stock performance over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，微軟的股票可能不會像年輕的新興 AI 股票那樣飆升，但這沒關係。該公司的形象可能適合廣泛的投資者：其盈利記錄將令謹慎的投資者印象深刻，而其對 AI 的曝光將令成長型投資者滿意。這種組合應該能在長期內支持股票表現。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Microsoft looks dirt cheap at 20x forward earnings estimates, making this Dow Jones stock a no-brainer buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，微軟的前瞻性市盈率為 20 倍，顯得極為便宜，使這隻道瓊斯股票現在成為一個顯而易見的買入機會。</p>
</div>

This Tech Giant Was the Worst-Performing Mega-Cap in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the First Half. Stock to Avoid or No-Brainer Buying Opportunity?

- 技術公司在 2023 年上半年面臨不確定性，特別是 AI 投資回報受關注。  
- 微軟股價下跌 20%，因 AI 取代軟件的擔憂影響投資者信心。  
- 然而，微軟雲業務受益於 AI 增長，預計長期表現穩健，現股價具吸引力。

Motley Fool

T-Rex 2X Long Microsoft Daily Target ETF

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Roundhill MSFT WeeklyPay ETF

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Microsoft MSFT ETF

道瓊斯指數

標普 500 指數

納斯達克綜合指數

這家科技巨頭在道瓊斯工業平均指數中是上半年表現最差的超大盤股。是應該規避的股票還是顯而易見的買入機會？