<p>TradingKey - 美國股市正式結束了 2026 年上半年的交易。在經歷了前幾年的集體反彈後，七大科技巨頭在今年上半年表現出現了顯著的分化，其中四家公司上漲，三家公司下跌，而微軟（MSFT）是表現最差的公司。進入 2026 年下半年，微軟的股價會繼續下滑並測試 200 美元的支撐位，還是會反彈並飆升至 460 美元？</p>
<h2>微軟歷史價格趨勢回顧</h2>
<p>在過去的半年中，微軟的股價經歷了一次 “歷史性的” 調整。截至 6 月 30 日，股價約為 373 美元，較 1 月初約 484 美元的高點下跌近 23%。在短短六個月內，微軟的股價經歷了兩次急劇下跌和一次重大反彈，標誌着其波動性極大的旅程。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260703/Microsoft-msft-2e1bc64b84bb49ebb42aecdcb44aa14a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260703/Microsoft-msft-2e1bc64b84bb49ebb42aecdcb44aa14a.png"/></p>
<p>微軟股價走勢圖，來源：TradingView</p>
<p>從 1 月到 3 月，微軟經歷了估值調整和去槓桿回調。年初股價從 472 美元逐漸下滑，2 月份失去了 400 美元的關鍵心理關口，並在 3 月底加速下滑至 358 美元的低點。從 4 月到 5 月，微軟的股價出現了顯著的 V 型反彈。股價從 370 美元左右開始，在 4 月中旬重新回到 420 美元的水平。到 5 月底，受益於財報、人工智能基礎設施和雲業務的持續支撐，股價再次上漲，5 月 29 日收於 450 美元。</p>
<p>在 6 月，微軟的股價主要經歷了第二次觸底和尋找支撐。在 6 月初，股價短暫飆升至 466 美元，但很快回落至 6 月 25 日的上半年低點 349 美元。在 6 月最後的交易日，微軟顯示出強勁的抄底買入動能，連續反彈以彌補部分損失。</p>
<h2>微軟在七大科技巨頭中的表現如何？</h2>
<p>在過去六個月中，三大美國股指齊頭並進，但 “七大科技巨頭” 的表現卻出現了分化。其中，Alphabet 表現最佳，上漲超過 13%，而微軟表現最差，下跌近 23%。具體情況如下：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>排名</td>
<td>公司（股票代碼）</td>
<td>上半年表現（年初至今）</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>Alphabet ( GOOG )</td>
<td>+13.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>NVIDIA ( NVDA )</td>
<td>+7.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>Amazon ( AMZN )</td>
<td>+4.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>Apple ( AAPL )</td>
<td>+3.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5</td>
<td>Tesla ( TSLA )</td>
<td>-6.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6</td>
<td>Meta ( META )</td>
<td>-14.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
<td>Microsoft (MSFT)</td>
<td>-22.99%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2>為什麼微軟的股價下跌？</h2>
<p>在瞭解微軟股價下跌的原因之前，首先需要知道其股價為何曾經飆升至歷史高點。從 2024 年到 2025 年，微軟的股價因人工智能的光環而被推至歷史高點。然而，在今年上半年，宏觀資金開始從人工智能泡沫中撤出，投資者不再願意為 “人工智能願景” 支付高溢價。這主要體現在三個方面：人工智能資本支出、旗艦人工智能產品 Copilot 和 OpenAI。</p>
<p>為了建立人工智能數據中心和購買芯片（GPU/CPU），微軟的資本支出如無底洞般激增。微軟首席財務官 Amy Hood 大幅提高了 2026 年全年的資本支出指引至 1900 億美元，遠超市場預期的 1546 億美元。微軟如此鉅額的前期投資導致其近期自由現金流罕見地下降超過 20%。</p>
<p>儘管微軟已將 Copilot 完全嵌入 Office 等軟件中，但其當前的市場滲透率和轉化率使投資者失去了耐心。截至今年年中，在微軟超過 4.5 億個付費 Microsoft 365 企業席位中，Copilot 的付費滲透率僅約為 3% 至 4.4%。此外，Copilot 被報道存在品牌定位混亂和跨平台兼容性差等問題。由於微軟在人工智能基礎設施上的投資異常高，導致軟件變現速度如同 “擠牙膏”，市場認為 1900 億美元的資本支出的投資回報在短期內無法得到證明。</p>
<p>市場更為擔憂的是，微軟披露其高達 45%（約 2810 億美元）的 6250 億美元剩餘商業履約義務與單一客户 OpenAI 相關，這意味着微軟未來的收入高度依賴於 OpenAI 的生存。然而，OpenAI 自身仍處於高度燒錢階段，尚未實現穩定盈利。這種 “左手與右手” 之間的合同結構促使投資者開始評估結構性風險。</p>
<h2>微軟股價預測：下半年的下跌會繼續嗎？</h2>
<p>在經歷了上半年的系統性去槓桿和重新定價後，微軟的前瞻市盈率已從之前的瘋狂的 33-35 倍壓縮至當前的約 21-22 倍。這遠低於其 5 年平均的 30 倍，這一估值水平對長期機構資本具有高度吸引力。這表明下半年進一步下跌的空間相對有限，預計股價將主要在 350 美元至 460 美元的寬幅區間內波動。</p>
<p>在下半年，如果美聯儲在年末之前實際啓動降息，並且微軟內部的改善——例如 Azure 的收入增長率保持在 38% 以上，以及 Copilot 的企業轉化率超出預期——得以實現，這將有助於其股價突破整理區間的上方阻力，並可能挑戰其歷史高點 550 美元。然而，如果微軟的人工智能變現顯著停滯，特別是在美聯儲加息的情況下，微軟可能連其關鍵的防守線都無法守住，向下逼近下一個關鍵支撐位 200 美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260703/Microsoft-msft-price-99e70d0503ab47e5b60d27003c0f3c53.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260703/Microsoft-msft-price-99e70d0503ab47e5b60d27003c0f3c53.png"/></p>
<p>微軟股票走勢圖，來源：TradingView</p>
<p>瞭解更多</p>

微軟

微軟每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFO

微軟每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFX

MSFW

MSFY

2 倍做多 MAG7 指數 ETF - Roundhill

<p>微軟股票在 2026 年上半年下跌近 23%，表現不及 “七大巨頭”。這一下滑源於高達 1900 億美元的人工智能資本支出、僅有 3-4% 的 Copilot 採用率，以及對 OpenAI 的重度依賴以獲取收入。隨着估值壓縮至 21-22 倍市盈率，分析師質疑這種下滑是否會持續或反彈</p>

<p>TradingKey - US stocks have officially closed the first half of 2026. After riding a collective rally in previous years, the Magnificent Seven tech giants saw a significant polarization in their performance during the first half of this year, with four gainers and three decliners, and Microsoft ( MSFT) was the worst-performing company among them. Entering the second half of 2026, will Microsoft's stock price continue to slide and test the $200 support level, or will it rebound and surge toward $460?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 美國股市正式結束了 2026 年上半年的交易。在經歷了前幾年的集體反彈後，七大科技巨頭在今年上半年表現出現了顯著的分化，其中四家公司上漲，三家公司下跌，而微軟（MSFT）是表現最差的公司。進入 2026 年下半年，微軟的股價會繼續下滑並測試 200 美元的支撐位，還是會反彈並飆升至 460 美元？</p>
</div><h2>Historical Price Trend Review of Microsoft</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微軟歷史價格趨勢回顧</h2>
</div><p>Over the past half year, Microsoft's stock price underwent a &#34;historic&#34; correction. As of June 30, the stock price stood around $373, plunging nearly 23% from its early January peak of approximately $484. In just six months, Microsoft's stock experienced two sharp drops and one major rally, marking a highly volatile journey.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去的半年中，微軟的股價經歷了一次 “歷史性的” 調整。截至 6 月 30 日，股價約為 373 美元，較 1 月初約 484 美元的高點下跌近 23%。在短短六個月內，微軟的股價經歷了兩次急劇下跌和一次重大反彈，標誌着其波動性極大的旅程。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260703/Microsoft-msft-2e1bc64b84bb49ebb42aecdcb44aa14a.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260703/Microsoft-msft-2e1bc64b84bb49ebb42aecdcb44aa14a.png"/></p>
<p>Microsoft Stock Price Chart, Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟股價走勢圖，來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>From January to March, Microsoft underwent a valuation correction and a deleveraging pullback. It drifted lower from $472 at the beginning of the year, lost the key psychological level of $400 in February, and accelerated its slide to a bottom of $358 in late March. From April to May, Microsoft's stock staged a notable V-shaped rebound. Starting around $370, it reclaimed the $420 level in mid-April. By late May, sustained support from its earnings report, AI infrastructure, and cloud business pushed the stock up again, closing at $450 on May 29.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 1 月到 3 月，微軟經歷了估值調整和去槓桿回調。年初股價從 472 美元逐漸下滑，2 月份失去了 400 美元的關鍵心理關口，並在 3 月底加速下滑至 358 美元的低點。從 4 月到 5 月，微軟的股價出現了顯著的 V 型反彈。股價從 370 美元左右開始，在 4 月中旬重新回到 420 美元的水平。到 5 月底，受益於財報、人工智能基礎設施和雲業務的持續支撐，股價再次上漲，5 月 29 日收於 450 美元。</p>
</div><p>In June, Microsoft's stock price primarily experienced a second bottoming out and a search for support. In early June, the stock briefly surged to $466, but quickly collapsed to hit its first-half low of $349 on June 25. During the final trading days of June, Microsoft showed strong dip-buying momentum, rallying consecutively to recoup some of its losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 6 月，微軟的股價主要經歷了第二次觸底和尋找支撐。在 6 月初，股價短暫飆升至 466 美元，但很快回落至 6 月 25 日的上半年低點 349 美元。在 6 月最後的交易日，微軟顯示出強勁的抄底買入動能，連續反彈以彌補部分損失。</p>
</div><h2>How is Microsoft performing among the Magnificent Seven?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微軟在七大科技巨頭中的表現如何？</h2>
</div><p>Over the past six months, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose in tandem, but the performance of the 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants diverged. Among them, Alphabet performed the best, surging over 13%, while Microsoft performed the worst, plunging nearly 23%. The details are as follows:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去六個月中，三大美國股指齊頭並進，但 “七大科技巨頭” 的表現卻出現了分化。其中，Alphabet 表現最佳，上漲超過 13%，而微軟表現最差，下跌近 23%。具體情況如下：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Rank</td>
<td>Company (Ticker)</td>
<td>First-Half Performance (YTD)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>Alphabet ( GOOG )</td>
<td>+13.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>NVIDIA ( NVDA )</td>
<td>+7.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>Amazon ( AMZN )</td>
<td>+4.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>Apple ( AAPL )</td>
<td>+3.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5</td>
<td>Tesla ( TSLA )</td>
<td>-6.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6</td>
<td>Meta ( META )</td>
<td>-14.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
<td>Microsoft (MSFT)</td>
<td>-22.99%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>排名</td>
<td>公司（股票代碼）</td>
<td>上半年表現（年初至今）</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>Alphabet ( GOOG )</td>
<td>+13.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>NVIDIA ( NVDA )</td>
<td>+7.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>Amazon ( AMZN )</td>
<td>+4.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>Apple ( AAPL )</td>
<td>+3.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5</td>
<td>Tesla ( TSLA )</td>
<td>-6.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6</td>
<td>Meta ( META )</td>
<td>-14.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
<td>Microsoft (MSFT)</td>
<td>-22.99%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><h2>Why did Microsoft's stock price fall?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼微軟的股價下跌？</h2>
</div><p>Before understanding why Microsoft's stock price fell, it is first necessary to know why its stock price had previously surged to record highs. From 2024 to 2025, Microsoft's stock price was pushed to historic highs by the AI halo. However, in the first half of this year, macro funds began rotating out of the AI bubble, and investors were no longer willing to pay a high premium for the &#34;AI vision.&#34; This was mainly reflected in three areas: AI capital expenditures, the flagship AI product Copilot, and OpenAI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在瞭解微軟股價下跌的原因之前，首先需要知道其股價為何曾經飆升至歷史高點。從 2024 年到 2025 年，微軟的股價因人工智能的光環而被推至歷史高點。然而，在今年上半年，宏觀資金開始從人工智能泡沫中撤出，投資者不再願意為 “人工智能願景” 支付高溢價。這主要體現在三個方面：人工智能資本支出、旗艦人工智能產品 Copilot 和 OpenAI。</p>
</div><p>In order to build AI data centers and purchase chips (GPUs/CPUs), Microsoft's capital expenditure has surged like a bottomless pit. Microsoft CFO Amy Hood significantly raised the capital expenditure guidance for the full year of 2026 to $190 billion, far exceeding the market expectation of $154.6 billion. Such huge upfront investment by Microsoft has led to a rare decline of over 20% in its recent free cash flow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了建立人工智能數據中心和購買芯片（GPU/CPU），微軟的資本支出如無底洞般激增。微軟首席財務官 Amy Hood 大幅提高了 2026 年全年的資本支出指引至 1900 億美元，遠超市場預期的 1546 億美元。微軟如此鉅額的前期投資導致其近期自由現金流罕見地下降超過 20%。</p>
</div><p>Although Microsoft has fully embedded Copilot into software like Office, its current market penetration and conversion rates have caused investors to lose patience. As of the middle of this year, among Microsoft's more than 450 million paid Microsoft 365 corporate seats, the paid penetration rate of Copilot was only about 3% to 4.4%. In addition, Copilot has been reported to have issues such as confused brand positioning and poor cross-platform compatibility. With Microsoft's exceptionally high investment in AI infrastructure, the resulting software monetization speed has been like &#34;squeezing toothpaste,&#34; leading the market to believe that the return on investment of the $190 billion Capex cannot be proven in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管微軟已將 Copilot 完全嵌入 Office 等軟件中，但其當前的市場滲透率和轉化率使投資者失去了耐心。截至今年年中，在微軟超過 4.5 億個付費 Microsoft 365 企業席位中，Copilot 的付費滲透率僅約為 3% 至 4.4%。此外，Copilot 被報道存在品牌定位混亂和跨平台兼容性差等問題。由於微軟在人工智能基礎設施上的投資異常高，導致軟件變現速度如同 “擠牙膏”，市場認為 1900 億美元的資本支出的投資回報在短期內無法得到證明。</p>
</div><p>What concerns the market even more is that Microsoft disclosed that as much as 45% (about $281 billion) of its whopping $625 billion in remaining commercial performance obligations is tied to a single customer, OpenAI, meaning that Microsoft's future revenue is highly dependent on OpenAI's survival. However, OpenAI itself is still in a highly cash-burning stage and has not yet achieved stable profitability. This &#34;left hand to right hand&#34; contract structure has prompted investors to start evaluating the structural risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場更為擔憂的是，微軟披露其高達 45%（約 2810 億美元）的 6250 億美元剩餘商業履約義務與單一客户 OpenAI 相關，這意味着微軟未來的收入高度依賴於 OpenAI 的生存。然而，OpenAI 自身仍處於高度燒錢階段，尚未實現穩定盈利。這種 “左手與右手” 之間的合同結構促使投資者開始評估結構性風險。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft Stock Forecast: Will the Decline Continue into the Second Half of 2026?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微軟股價預測：下半年的下跌會繼續嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Following the systematic deleveraging and repricing in the first half of the year, Microsoft's forward P/E ratio has been compressed from the previous frenetic 33–35 times down to around the current 21–22 times. This is well below its 5-year average of 30 times, and this valuation level has become highly attractive to long-term institutional capital. This suggests that the room for further declines in the second half of the year is relatively limited, with the stock expected to primarily fluctuate within a wide range of $350 to $460.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在經歷了上半年的系統性去槓桿和重新定價後，微軟的前瞻市盈率已從之前的瘋狂的 33-35 倍壓縮至當前的約 21-22 倍。這遠低於其 5 年平均的 30 倍，這一估值水平對長期機構資本具有高度吸引力。這表明下半年進一步下跌的空間相對有限，預計股價將主要在 350 美元至 460 美元的寬幅區間內波動。</p>
</div><p>In the second half of the year, if the Federal Reserve initiates actual rate cuts before year-end, and if Microsoft's internal improvements—such as Azure's revenue growth rate remaining above 38% and Copilot's enterprise conversion rate exceeding expectations—materialize, it will help its stock price break through the upper resistance of the consolidation range and potentially challenge its historical high of $550. However, if Microsoft's AI monetization stalls significantly, particularly if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, Microsoft might fail to hold even its key defensive line, heading toward the next critical support level of $200.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下半年，如果美聯儲在年末之前實際啓動降息，並且微軟內部的改善——例如 Azure 的收入增長率保持在 38% 以上，以及 Copilot 的企業轉化率超出預期——得以實現，這將有助於其股價突破整理區間的上方阻力，並可能挑戰其歷史高點 550 美元。然而，如果微軟的人工智能變現顯著停滯，特別是在美聯儲加息的情況下，微軟可能連其關鍵的防守線都無法守住，向下逼近下一個關鍵支撐位 200 美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260703/Microsoft-msft-price-99e70d0503ab47e5b60d27003c0f3c53.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260703/Microsoft-msft-price-99e70d0503ab47e5b60d27003c0f3c53.png"/></p>
<p>Microsoft stock chart, Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟股票走勢圖，來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瞭解更多</p>
</div>

Microsoft Stock Price Forecast: Over 20% Slump in First Half of 2026, Will It Keep Falling in the Second Half?

- 微軟在 2026 年上半年股票下跌近 23%，表現最差。  
- 市場擔憂其對 OpenAI 的依賴及 AI 投資回報。  
- 下半年若美聯儲降息，微軟股價或回升至 $460。

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微軟股票價格預測：2026 年上半年下跌超過 20%，下半年是否會繼續下跌？