☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk

Midday update: Tech ripped overnight — Nasdaq +2%, sector +2.56% — as AMD's blowout, Arm's beat and Supermicro's strong margin guide all aligned. China names tore higher on the open: Baidu +11.4%, Alibaba +6.9%, CQQQ +4.9%. Nvidia signed a long-term 10x capacity deal with Corning (with up to 18M warrants). Fed's Goolsbee warned that AI capex without productivity gains may require RATE HIKES, while flagging Iran-war inflation shock. Snap dropped −9.17% on geopolitical ad weakness. Locally, UOB Q1 net profit −4% YoY with no special dividend, and OCBC reports today.

💬 Today's 3 Big Questions

Tech up across the board (NASDAQ +2%, AMD/Arm/Supermicro all ripping) PLUS China rallying hard (BIDU +11.4%, BABA +6.9%, CQQQ +4.9%) — the AI rotation is going global simultaneously. Is this the start of a multi-month leg-up that drags STI past OCBC's 5,250 target, or a one-day euphoria you fade into NFP tomorrow?
Goolsbee just floated rate HIKES (not cuts) if AI capex doesn't translate into productivity. Coupled with the Iran-war "inflation shock" framing, this is the most hawkish on-record Fed voice in months. Does this materially shift the cut path — and how do you reposition SG banks (NIM defended longer) vs. long-duration tech (multiple compression risk)?
Nvidia-Corning: Corning ramps optical capacity 10x, gets up to 18M NVDA share warrants. AI capex is moving from cash spend to equity-linked supply lock-in. Bullish signal that the picks-and-shovels chain has unprecedented demand visibility, OR a sign bottlenecks are so severe even NVDA must trade equity to secure capacity? Pick your read.

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⏰ Deadline: May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM (SGT)

📊 Quick Market Recap

🌍 Global Macro & Markets

Goolsbee (Fed): warned that AI-driven capex without productivity gains may require rate HIKES; explicitly flagged Iran war as an "inflation shock." Most hawkish on-record Fed framing in months.
April NFP tomorrow (May 8 evening SGT) — soft print could reverse the hawkish lean.
Energy got punished: S&P energy sector −4.07% as Hormuz disruption fears eased intraday.

🇺🇸 US Markets: Nasdaq +2% on AMD / Arm / Supermicro Wave

📈 Nasdaq +2.0%, Tech +2.56%, Energy −4.07%.
AMD — Continuing the post-earnings momentum: blowout beat, raised guide, AI accelerator demand "robust." Reinforces the hyperscaler-contracted demand thesis.
Arm — Q4 revenue US$1.49bn (+20% YoY), adj EPS $0.60 beat; afterhours pop. But warned on mobile market weakness, partially offset by AI licensing.
Supermicro — Stock surged on strong gross margin and revenue guidance; AI server cycle still concrete.
Nvidia + Corning — Long-term deal: Corning to expand optical-connect capacity 10x; NVDA gets up to 18 million share warrants. Optical bottleneck mitigation written in blood.
Snap — Q1 revenue US$1.529bn (+12% YoY), net loss narrowed to $90m; stock −9.17% afterhours as geopolitical conflict crimped ad revenue.
Earnings tonight: Coinbase (post-layoffs test, "everything exchange" strategy progress), CoreWeave, Iren, Rocket Lab.

🇸🇬 Singapore Markets

📈 STI hovering near 5,000; OCBC Research base-case target 5,250.
UOB Q1: net profit S$1.44bn (−4% YoY, +2% QoQ); NIM 1.82% (−2bps QoQ); NPL stable at 1.5%; CET1 at 15.3%. No capital-return special dividend (DBS's 15c stands alone). FY26 guide held.
OCBC Q1 tomorrow — bar moved up after UOB's softer print.
FATF mutual-evaluation strongly affirms Singapore's anti-financial-crime framework; placed on Regular Follow-up.
SIA — Upgraded first/business-class seat rollout on A350-900 fleet delayed to Q1 2027 on supply-chain + certification issues; separately, Air India CEO decision today with a senior SIA exec on the four-name shortlist.
Far East Hospitality Trust Q1: revenue +11.3% to S$28.1m; income for distribution +12.2%.
StarHub Q1 business update out today.
Jardine Matheson AGM today — proposed final dividend US$1.75/share for FY2025.
DBS dividend (66c interim + 15c special) payable ~May 20.

🇭🇰 Hong Kong & China Markets

📈 CQQQ +4.9%; China stocks index +3.4%; HSI bid on selective tech.
Baidu +11.4% | Alibaba +6.9% — re-rating finally arriving as the AI capex / DeepSeek halo + cheap multiple story converges. Watch sustainability into HK earnings season.
HSBC's −5% drag yesterday now offset by tech-led rebound — financials still under pressure but tape balances.
Tencent / Alibaba — DeepSeek (>US$20bn) talks remain in play.

📅 Key Events Tonight / This Week

🇺🇸 Coinbase / CoreWeave / Iren / Rocket Lab earnings — Tonight
🇸🇬 OCBC Q1 results — May 8
🇺🇸 April Non-Farm Payrolls — May 8 (SGT evening)
🇸🇬 HDB BTO HFE letter deadline — May 15
🇺🇸 EU auto/truck 25% tariffs effective — Next week
🇸🇬 DBS dividend payment — ~May 20

Disclaimer: For reference only, not investment advice.