0903 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) US Aug. ADP private payrolls rose just 37k, the lowest since Jan. Wage growth slowed in tandem, signaling an ongoing cooldown in the labor market.

On that read, markets lowered expectations for Friday's NFP. ADP, a leading indicator ahead of NFP, weakened sharply and flagged a softer jobs backdrop.

If NFP also prints soft, it would strengthen the trade that the Fed has less need to hike. That said, oil-price swings from Middle East tensions remain a key inflation variable, so investors still need the official NFP for confirmation...

0902 | Dolphin Research Focus.

🐬 Macro/Industry: The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire twice within three days. Trump struck a hardline tone, saying a final strike is being prepared. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said if inflation does not recede, the Fed must be ready to hike.

Hit by geopolitics and rising hike expectations, oil prices rallied sharply, lifting inflation risk and reinforcing rate-hike pricing. Global equities and bonds weakened in tandem.

🐬 Single names: 1) $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK). The company will hold its fall launch event at 19:00 on Sep 7...

0831 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry. NBS reported Aug. manufacturing PMI at 49.8% (+60bps MoM). Production and demand improved in tandem but remained below the 50 line.

New orders picked up, an encouraging signal. That said, SME sentiment stayed weak and domestic demand has yet to stabilize. The market awaits further incremental policy delivery to test the recovery's durability.

2) MSCI's Aug. quarterly rebalancing becomes effective after the close on Aug 31. Implementation follows the market close that day...

Aug 27 | Dolphin Research watchlist: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) U.S. Jul PCE +3.7% YoY; core PCE +3.3% YoY. Both were in line with expectations.

Real personal consumption expenditures were nearly flat MoM after inflation, signaling a clear cooldown from earlier strength. Inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target.

With sticky inflation and signs of softer consumption, policy choices have become tougher for the Fed. After the print, UST yields ticked higher while U.S. equities traded choppy under pressure.

The market now looks to commentary out of Jackson Hole from Fed officials. Guidance there could shape the path of rates ahead...

0826 | Dolphin Research focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry

1) The U.S. and Iran signaled consensus on a ceasefire and free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, pressuring crude in the near term, while the 10Y UST yield eased to 4.64%. U.S. equities rallied across the three major indices; NVDA snapped a seven-session run. Geopolitical risks de-escalating lifted global risk appetite, with energy under pressure but tech/semis rebounding.

Oil's pullback eases inflation and long-end rate pressure. It is a short-term tailwind for long-duration growth stocks.

2) Also, at 20:30 tonight, the U.S. Jul PCE report is due. The PCE print directly shapes rate-cut expectations...

0825 | Dolphin Research Focus: Macro/Industry — 1) The U.S. Treasury Secretary said on Mon (local time) that a new round of long-bond buybacks will be executed on Sep 9, and the tool will remain active. The operations will cover 10–30Y USTs to address the recent spike in long-end yields.

This signals direct Treasury intervention at the long end, offering a short-term sentiment backstop for USTs. However, markets worry about the funding source for buybacks given a swollen fiscal deficit. If the effect is limited, long-end rates still face upside, which would keep a lid on global equity valuations...

0820 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry — 1) U.S. Treasury data show that as of Tue close, U.S. public debt outstanding reached $40.05TN, breaching $40TN for the first time. The structural expansion of Gov. debt implies a persistently rising UST supply.

Combined with the earlier move higher in long-end yields, this further pressures valuations across global risk assets. Markets will keep fretting about fiscal sustainability, pushing up term premia and favoring gold and other havens.

Growth-stock multiples face headwinds. Watch the UST issuance calendar and shifts in demand from Intl long-only funds...

Aug 19 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry

1) Market chatter suggests China may ease import curbs on Nvidia H200 chips, lifting sentiment across compute plays. If enacted, the policy would ease the domestic compute crunch, enabling cloud vendors and LLM developers to scale, and would be positive for Nvidia's China shipments. For now it's only market chatter with no official documentation, so expectations may miss; watch for the final rules and quota sizes.

2) The Zhuque-3 Y2 launch vehicle ignited at the Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Test Zone. It then lifted off...

0818 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry

1) The 30Y UST yield climbed to 5.32%, the highest since 2007, with the 10Y nearing 5%. The breakdown in U.S.-Iran talks fueled a 3-day oil rally, while global stocks and bonds weakened in tandem and Japan fell over 2%.

Large fiscal deficits, oil-driven inflation, and heavy AI infra issuance are pushing up the long end. Equity multiples and risk appetite are under pressure.

Higher long-end yields compress valuations for long-duration tech growth. Geopolitics are supporting oil and reinforcing sticky inflation, leaving risk assets under near-term pressure. Financing demand for compute and AI infrastructure continues to ramp...

0813 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry. 1) US Jul CPI rose 3.4% YoY vs. 3.5% prior, with core CPI at 2.5% YoY vs. 2.6%. MoM prints were in line with consensus, and shelter remained the primary driver of inflation.

Inflation cooled modestly, trimming the market-implied odds of a Sep hike and pulling UST yields lower. However, with core inflation still well above the 2% target, the Fed’s tightening bias remains, and near-term valuation pressure on growth stocks eased only at the margin.

2) MSCI released its quarterly index review for Aug 2026. Results...