$Shopify (SHOP.US) reported Q3 results on the evening of Nov 3 Beijing time. Our take at Dolphin Research: not bad in absolute terms, but well below bullish buy-side expectations, with stretched valuation and lofty expectations the main culprit. The key issue is GMV kept decelerating and, for the first time in nearly two years, came in below consensus and far short of buy-side; details below:
+14Q3 revenue rose 32%, with AI channel orders up 3.3x YoY.
Q4 revenue growth guidance remains just above 30%.Investments in Sidekick and infrastructure compressed subscription GPM to 79%, while Q4 FCF margin is guided to be flat YoY.The company is also betting on Shop Pay and Catalog as the base layer for Agent-based shopping.
Western AI-enabled e-comms mid-cap leader --$Shopify (SHOP.US) reported Q2 2026 results after US hours on Aug 5, with shares up as much as ~30% pre-market. With such a blowout move, how strong were the numbers?
Overall, both quarterly revenue and profit growth, as well as next-quarter guidance, beat across the board. Setting aside whether the surge is justified, Shopify’s print was impeccable. Specifically:1) The source of the upside — robust GMV growth. At the root…Q2 GMV was $116bn (+32% YoY). Revenue grew 34%, with an FCF margin of 18%.
However, Q3 guidance points to revenue growth 'just over 30%', with GP growth only in the high-20s. The next leg is pinned on agentic commerce, with AI channel traffic and orders up 3x YoY, and 75% of AI-attributed orders coming from outside the top 100 categories.
Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of the $Shopify (SHOP.US) FY26 Q1 earnings call. For our take on the print, see《Shopify: As the e-comm agent tide recedes, is the payments leader left exposed?》。
1. Shareholder returns: management said they will continue share repurchases. Free cash flow will fund the buyback plan.
2. Guidance: Q2 revenue is expected to grow in the high-20s% YoY. FX provides an approx. 0.5pp tailwind...
The e-com tools and payments vertical leader — $Shopify (SHOP.US) reported Q1 2026 results pre-market on May 5. Overall, the quarter was solid.
Growth and profit beat Bloomberg consensus. Excluding FX tailwinds, however, the print offered little upside vs. buy-side expectations.
Guidance for next quarter showed minor blemishes. While broadly in line with Bloomberg consensus, the trajectory points to an 'inevitable' slowdown in GMV, revenue, and profit growth...
Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of the FY25 Q4 earnings call for $Shopify (SHOP.US). For the earnings breakdown, see 'Shopify: Solid results yet a plunge — are commerce agents a silver bullet or a poison?'.
Core metrics recap, and regional/channel performance are as follows. North America revenue rose 28% YoY, with the platform now covering over 14% of the US e-com market.International revenue grew 36% YoY. Nearly half of merchants are outside North America, and Europe Q4 GMV increased 45% (FXN +35%). Offline: GMV was up 29% YoY...As one of the most-watched plays in e-comm AI — $Shopify (SHOP.US) reported Q4 2025 results ahead of the Feb 11 U.S. pre-market. The print was strong, with in-quarter metrics and next-quarter guidance largely beating expectations. The most visible overhang is rich valuation. Specifically:
1) GMV growth held up. Contrary to market worries that Shopify's strong GMV would inevitably fade, GMV grew 31% YoY this quarter, roughly in line with last quarter with no sign of slowdown. Ex-FX tailwinds...The following is the FY25Q3 earnings call minutes of $Shopify (SHOP.US) organized by Dolphin Research. For earnings interpretation, please refer to "Shopify: Is Imperfection Unacceptable, the Original Sin of High Valuation?" 1. Review of Core Financial Information 1. Third-quarter stock-based compensation expense was $116 million, and capital expenditure was $6 million. Free cash flow for the third quarter reached $507 million, accounting for 18% of total revenue. The free cash flow profit margin for the first nine months of this year remained the same as the same period last year, at 16%; this quarter's transaction and loan losses accounted for approximately 5% of revenue...
As the most watched hot target in the current e-commerce AI field—Shopify announced its Q3 2025 financial report on the evening of November 4th, before the U.S. stock market opened. Overall, the growth performance remains quite strong, with GMV growth accelerating sequentially on a high base. However, due to a narrowing gross margin and expenses returning to an expansion cycle, the year-on-year contraction in profit margin has widened, which is not considered favorable. Specifically: 1. Strong GMV growth, the source of all exceeding expectations: GMV within the Shopify ecosystem reached $9.2 billion this quarter, up 32% year-on-year, further accelerating on the already high base of the previous quarter, significantly outperforming expectations...